Franz Wagner, Michigan

[nolang1]

His IQ is great but dude is super slow with no wiggle and doesn't appear to be a knockdown shooter.. his archetype doesn't appear to be one that lasts in the league..

Mike Dunleavy Jr. was a 15 year pro, and Wagner as a sophomore is the same age as Dunleavy Jr. was as a freshman. The number of players who actually fit this archetype at 19 years old (actually 6'9 and not just listed a couple inches taller, able to guard on the perimeter, able to move the ball and make good decisions while avoiding turnovers, has at least some aptitude for shooting rather than being like Julian Wright) is a lot smaller than you think.

[Upperclass]

I could see that comparison. Dunleavy was just one of those dudes who was different imo. A little smarter, savvier, a little better shooter, etc etc than your avg SF at that time. Franz seems to need the ball to work his offense and if he can't consistently drive by players or hit shots on a spot up.. then his only real skill is his passing and IQ.. and not being a PG or a SF with a plus handle.. not sure how valuable that will be if he can't run an offense.

If Franz tightens up his game.. he'd actually remind me of Kyle Anderson more than Dunleavy. I think he has the potential to be a better athlete though

[clyde21]

he is for sure more athletic than Slo Mo, probably not as good of a playmaker tho but better athlete/shooter and better physical profile overall.

[jman3134]

I'm sorry but calling him the best player on #1 seeded Michigan is extremely misleading. He has not been the best offensive player all season for Michigan and it has been pretty obvious that Hunter Dickinson is the go to guy. The more trustworthy option offensively on the wing was Livers.

But, we aren't talking about what these guys do at the college level. We are projecting him to the pro level, so that really doesn't matter as much (whether he is the number 1 option on his college team or not). He has the physical attributes to perform well in the NBA and he actually looked great defensively in this game. When you watched closely, he disrupted Juzang a ton of times. I am not sure why he didn't guard him the majority of the time down the stretch. Brooks was on him way too much imo. It could be what I was pointing out about lateral movement earlier in the thread - he has good quicks for a 6'10 guy though.

[nolang1]

I'm sorry but calling him the best player on #1 seeded Michigan is extremely misleading. He has not been the best offensive player all season for Michigan and it has been pretty obvious that Hunter Dickinson is the go to guy. The more trustworthy option offensively on the wing was Livers.

Lol since when does best player mean go-to guy on offense? Talk about being willfully obtuse.

I could see that comparison. Dunleavy was just one of those dudes who was different imo. A little smarter, savvier, a little better shooter, etc etc than your avg SF at that time. Franz seems to need the ball to work his offense and if he can't consistently drive by players or hit shots on a spot up.. then his only real skill is his passing and IQ.. and not being a PG or a SF with a plus handle.. not sure how valuable that will be if he can't run an offense.

If Franz tightens up his game.. he'd actually remind me of Kyle Anderson more than Dunleavy. I think he has the potential to be a better athlete though

When you factor in him being almost 2 years older and being on a stacked team with Jay Williams, Battier, Boozer, and Duhon, is he really that different though? I'm sure Wagner would need the ball less if he could play off of offensive talent like that. It's also kind of funny to see Anderson come up so often in this draft with Scottie Barnes and now Wagner; SloMo is very conservatively a lotto pick in a redraft of his class, and once you start talking about better athleticism or better shooting than him the 5-10 range is a reasonable place to end up.

[jman3134]

I'm sorry but calling him the best player on #1 seeded Michigan is extremely misleading. He has not been the best offensive player all season for Michigan and it has been pretty obvious that Hunter Dickinson is the go to guy. The more trustworthy option offensively on the wing was Livers.

Lol since when does best player mean go-to guy on offense? Talk about being willfully obtuse.

Dejon Jarreau is the best all around player on Houston. Houston is a Final Four team. Therefore, he can't slip to the 2nd round.

^ Your level of analysis.

My point is that Franz was hardly the most important piece on this Michigan team, so your statement is either irrelevant or misleading. So pointing to his team success as a justification for his draft slot is not it. He is a very good player though with a projectable future. His D was great in this game.

[jman3134]

love the people who haven't watched him the entire year and then base their entire opinion on 1 game

Patiently waiting for ESPN to move him from 8 back to the 20's (where they had him a week ago), before moving him back to the lottery in May.

[nolang1]

I'm sorry but calling him the best player on #1 seeded Michigan is extremely misleading. He has not been the best offensive player all season for Michigan and it has been pretty obvious that Hunter Dickinson is the go to guy. The more trustworthy option offensively on the wing was Livers.

Lol since when does best player mean go-to guy on offense? Talk about being willfully obtuse.

Dejon Jarreau is the best all around player on Houston. Houston is a Final Four team. Therefore, he can't slip to the 2nd round.

^ Your level of analysis.

My point is that Franz was hardly the most important piece on this Michigan team, so your statement is either irrelevant or misleading. So pointing to his team success as a justification for his draft slot is not it. He is a very good player though with a projectable future. His D was great in this game.

Lol were you expecting that to be some epic gotcha type of point? Jarreau is certainly deserving of more than the basically zero draft buzz he's gotten, but way to double down on the willful obtuseness by trying to compare a 23-year-old to a 19-year-old.

[No-Man]

he's a legit 6-9 who has all the indicators of being a knock down shooter in the NBA, who's a + passer for his position and also won't be a net negative defensively, that's a lotto pick in any draft.

Not arguing that he's not a lotto pick, but he's far from being a knock down shooter. 35.7% from 3pt and 83.1% make him average. He was also only at 31.1% 3pt from his freshman year, but posted 83.3% from the line.

2-16 during the tournament isn't so great.. especially when it looks like he lost confidence in his shot today.

maybe follow his whole career? he was a knockdown shooter at age 17 starting games for a pro team in Germany, 39% from 3 and almost 90% from the FT

That's on 125 attempts from 3 btw

[NatP4]

Overreactions. He had a bad game. It happens. Wagner is one of the 5 best players in this draft when it’s all said and done.

He’ll be all of the above:
1. Positive impact defender
2. Secondary playmaker
3. Efficient low usage scorer

Mikal Bridges, Otto Porter, Gordon Hayward, Nicolas Batum. Not flashy, but they help you win games.

[BlazersBroncos]

I like the Otto Porter comparison. I can see him as prime, prior injury Porter if he develops to his max. An ideal 4th option type. I can also see him as just a good, 'does the little things' level role player who maxes as a low usage 5th starter. I would be surprised if he flames out. Just knows how to play.

[916fan]

he's a legit 6-9 who has all the indicators of being a knock down shooter in the NBA, who's a + passer for his position and also won't be a net negative defensively, that's a lotto pick in any draft.

Not arguing that he's not a lotto pick, but he's far from being a knock down shooter. 35.7% from 3pt and 83.1% make him average. He was also only at 31.1% 3pt from his freshman year, but posted 83.3% from the line.

2-16 during the tournament isn't so great.. especially when it looks like he lost confidence in his shot today.

maybe follow his whole career? he was a knockdown shooter at age 17 starting games for a pro team in Germany, 39% from 3 and almost 90% from the FT

That's on 125 attempts from 3 btw

In 67 games he averaged 13mpg: 5.6pts. He attempted 1.87 3s/game and 0.97 FTs. You rounded his percentages up, he was at 38.4% from 3pt and 89.2% from FT.

I think the context is needed. So you have a 3 year sample size that suggests he's an average shooter at best.


ALSO PSA, when we look at college prospects, we look at college stats. I know playing professional is different than playing in the pro, but NO ONE looks at stats before college, especially when he was only 17.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Just throwing poop at the wall to see what sticks, but how would ya'll say he compares to Klay Thompson?

[GSWFan1994]

Just throwing poop at the wall to see what sticks, but how would ya'll say he compares to Klay Thompson?

Better passer than Klay, but worse defensively (though not by much), and mainly, as a shooter, both in volume & in efficiency.

Wagner is more comparable to Gordon Hayward than Klay, IMHO. But worse as a prospect than Gordon.

I find him somewhat overrated by what I've studied/read of him.

[tmorgan]

I’m a Michigan grad and big fan, and I just don’t see “it” with Franz. He’s a first rounder, yes, and if he develops really well he could be a Dunleavy type (pretty good comp, kudos), but that’s his ceiling. His floor is “lacks usable NBA level skills”, because he’s only college good at a lot of things. He’s a developmental risk, worth a very late lottery or later teens pick.

[Ruzious]

Do people really remember Mike Dunleavy being the kind of defender than Wagner is? Even offensively, they're not similar. I don't get the comparison at all.

[BlazersBroncos]

Do people really remember Mike Dunleavy being the kind of defender than Wagner is? Even offensively, they're not similar. I don't get the comparison at all.

Ya, its really odd. MDJ was close to a point-forward, or at the least a very good ballhandling jumbo SF, where Franz is a good ball mover but isnt going to be creating much at the next level. Also, totally different defensive projections as well.

I could see them having similar career stats, but in terms of their play on the court its pretty off as a comparison.

[EvanZ]

Just throwing poop at the wall to see what sticks, but how would ya'll say he compares to Klay Thompson?

They're not really all that comparable. I'd say Moses Moody is potentially the closest Klay comp in this draft. (Although I know every Corey Kispert fan wants it to be him.)

[nolang1]

Do people really remember Mike Dunleavy being the kind of defender than Wagner is? Even offensively, they're not similar. I don't get the comparison at all.

Ya, its really odd. MDJ was close to a point-forward, or at the least a very good ballhandling jumbo SF, where Franz is a good ball mover but isnt going to be creating much at the next level. Also, totally different defensive projections as well.

I could see them having similar career stats, but in terms of their play on the court its pretty off as a comparison.

I was making the points that A) there aren't that many versatile wings who are actually 6'9" (rather than 6'6"-6'7" and billed as taller) and B) his upside for creating offense is likely being undersold because he's still the age of a freshman and Michigan plays at a slow pace (Dunleavy Jr. was a reserve as a freshman and scored fewer points per 40, and the difference in terms of points per possession would be larger).

Obviously Dunleavy was projected as more of a two-way player to have been drafted 3rd and in a more modern setting he would've played the 4 more often. Not sure where the point forward thing is coming from; if you think Batum is a better comparison for Wagner, he's more of a point forward than Dunleavy (career 2.2 apg) was. Otto Porter was pretty much the same sort of player as Dunleavy, just more efficient with modern shot selection, but Dunleavy/Wagner have some bulk on him that would allow them to do better than Porter has playing up a position or two in smaller lineups.

[GSWFan1994]

I’m a Michigan grad and big fan, and I just don’t see “it” with Franz. He’s a first rounder, yes, and if he develops really well he could be a Dunleavy type (pretty good comp, kudos), but that’s his ceiling. His floor is “lacks usable NBA level skills”, because he’s only college good at a lot of things. He’s a developmental risk, worth a very late lottery or later teens pick.

I wholeheartedly agree with you. I believe his right range would be in the 12-18 picks, though I believe some team will fall in love with his skillset and overdraft him come draft night.

There are easily 10 better players than Wagner in this draft, certainly more.