Prospect Spotlight -- Patrick Williams

[Jamaaliver]

2020 NBA draft profile: Patrick Williams is an outstanding athlete who may have star potential



Position: Forward
Height: 6-8
Weight: 225
School: Florida State

Williams was a bit of a surprise one-and-done freshman considering he didn’t even start for the Seminoles this season. Williams averaged 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds in 22.6 minutes per game this season, shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 32.0 percent from three-point range. He also averaged one block and one steal per game.

Strengths

Spoiler:

Williams is an outstanding athlete with a great motor. When you watch his clips, you’ll see that athleticism show up when he makes impactful plays as a help defender. Williams is a good weak-side shot blocker and can contest shots at the rim. He’s a quick, explosive leaper. He will get steals and blocks in the NBA because of his activity level and anticipation on the defensive end.

Offensively, Williams is an excellent cutter and lob threat. He knows where to be, how to move the ball and play within a system — he’s not a ball stopper. He can drive it a little bit and can hit a pull-up jumper, but he's more of an energy guy/athlete at this stage. Williams is a pretty good finisher, though, and there’s potential to be a much bigger scorer in the NBA than he was at Florida State.

Weaknesses

Spoiler:

Williams was much better guarding in the post in college than he was guarding players one-on-one in space. He may struggle when he gets switched onto NBA-level ball handlers, at least early in his career.

He’s more suited to play a power forward/small-ball center role than he is to play small forward. The problem is he’s slightly undersized to play that role in the NBA. His athleticism, strength and leaping ability will help him in that regard.

Williams wasn’t a great three-point shooter as a freshman (32.0 percent), but was 83.8 percent from the free throw line, a good sign that the shot isn't broken. He does certainly have 3-and-D potential if he can improve his three-point shooting at the NBA level. But if the shot doesn’t improve, he may have to make it as a defense/energy guy.

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[Jamaaliver]

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While Patrick Williams projects as a power forward in the NBA, he played a lot of point guard in high school. He was used to calling his own number whenever he wanted to shoot. At Florida State, he had to learn how to play off the ball and take advantage of the few chances he received as a complementary player. According to Synergy Sports tracking data, most of his offensive possessions came from spot-up attempts (32.3 percent), cuts (15.6 percent), transition (15 percent), and offensive rebounds (13.6 percent).

“I was just trying to improve overall,” Williams said. “Offense is always going to take care of itself. It takes somebody special to sit down on defense. Stops are what win the game.”

There were plenty of games last season in which Williams disappeared into the background of FSU’s offense. But scouts who looked past his limited role saw flashes of something special.

It starts with his physical tools. Williams, who averaged 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per game last season, is the rare defender who can match up with supersized wings like LeBron James and Jimmy Butler. There aren’t many guys with his size and strength who can play above the rim and help out all over the floor.

The next box that Williams checks is shooting. He didn’t take many 3s last season (32 percent on 1.7 attempts per game) but his strong free throw numbers (83.8 percent on 2.6 attempts) show his touch and upside from the perimeter.

Two-way ability separates Williams from a lot of players in this uncertain draft. It’s hard for young players to crack an NBA rotation if they can’t succeed in the 3-and-D role that he thrived in at Florida State. That’s why Williams is a relatively safe pick despite his pedestrian production. He has an immediate path to playing time at the next level because he doesn’t need to hide on defense and he can be a threat on offense without having the ball.

Spoiler:

But he didn’t become the biggest riser in this draft because he’s just a safe pick. That happened because of his upside. There’s an element of the unknown with the teenager because of how little was asked of him on offense. Maybe that’s all Williams was capable of. Or maybe he could have done more in a different role.

Believers in Williams point to a few reasons they think he has untapped potential. The first is his ability to create his own shot. While he doesn’t have an elite first step, defenders bounce off his strong 6-foot-8 frame, and he doesn’t need much space to raise up for a jumper. Williams was in the 90th percentile nationwide in points per possession when running pick-and-rolls and in the 70th percentile when shooting off the dribble. Those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt due to his lack of attempts, but he looked comfortable with the ball in his hands.

The challenge with evaluating Williams is there are so few data points to analyze. He just didn’t do that much in college. Picking him in the top 10 would be more straightforward if he had decided to return for his sophomore season at Florida State and dominated in a larger role.

The concern with drafting younger players is they may be too unpolished to stick in the first place. But that’s not an issue with Williams. He’s the rare project who isn’t a boom-or-bust pick. The foundation for a long career is in place even if he never gets much better.

The most interesting comparison for Williams that I’ve heard from NBA talent evaluators is Marvin Williams (no relation). Marvin, like Patrick, was a 6-foot-8 sixth man for a team that won the ACC title. He was drafted no. 2 overall in 2005 after helping North Carolina win an NCAA championship. While he’s best remembered for being taken ahead of Chris Paul, his combination of size, skill, and athleticism allowed him to carve out a 15-year NBA career before retiring in September.

Patrick Williams doesn’t have one standout skill at the moment. He’s a good athlete, but not a five-position defender who can stay in front of elite point guards. He’s a good shooter, but not a great one. And while he has some dribbling and passing chops, he can’t run an NBA offense at this stage of his career. The team that drafts him has to hope that there’s a compounding effect that comes from his potential to get better in so many areas.

The Ringer

[Spud2nique]

I think this kid is awesome because he hustles on almost every play and is really versatile. Having said that, he doesn’t seem to possess ONE skill that he excels at specifically. He’s a Jack of all trades master of none. Having said that, he plays both sides of the ball and has a very low bust ability. The question is do you take him at 6 if you love him and there are no deals to be found.

[Jamaaliver]

Are There Any Future All-Stars in the 2020 NBA Draft Class?

Long Shot: Patrick Williams (Florida State, SF/PF, Freshman)



If we had to pick a Tyler Herro of this draft—a projected late-lottery pick who emerges as a potential (surprise) All-Star—it would be Patrick Williams.

Admittedly, projecting a future All-Star appearance means betting on substantial development and improvement considering he only averaged 9.2 points as a freshman. But it's a bet worth making since Williams is the draft's youngest NCAA prospect and flashed an NBA-friendly skill set at Florida State that, if sharpened, could lead to a unique package of physical tools (6'8", 225 lbs) and versatility in this draft.

He reminds me of a forward version of Bam Adebayo, another physically imposing prospect whose ball-handling, passing and touch were masked with the Kentucky Wildcats. Like Kentucky players, Florida State players play a defined role in a system and aren't given much freedom to step outside of it.

But when Williams did have a chance to work off the dribble, we saw glimpses of pull-up shooting and live-dribble passing. He shot 41.7 percent on dribble jumpers and generated 25 points on 26 pick-and-roll ball-handling possessions (90th percentile).

There is also plenty of defensive potential to unlock from Williams' power, athleticism and motor. He's an exciting playmaker as a baseline, having averaged a steal and a block in 22.5 minutes per game. How much can he improve his discipline, awareness and quickness over the next few seasons?

It's difficult to pinpoint an exact comparison for Williams because there aren't players with his body type and athletic traits who have three-point range (16 makes), mid-range shot-creation and ball-screen passing ability.

Bleacher Report

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[HMFFL]

Impressive talent.
He had a very impressive block on Ayton a couple of nights ago.

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