The Failure Of Our 2018 Draft

[OldSchoolNoBull]

It has become common recently - this season particularly - to see people here say that all of our draft picks - or at least GarPax's picks - post Jimmy trade have been bad picks. I write this post to argue against that point. A pick can be a solid pick even if the player isn't that great - it's all relative to the draft class in question, who else was available, and any number of other contextual factors. IMO, since the Jimmy trade, there's only been one pick where we really, clearly screwed up, and that was the guy we just traded away.

Let's start with 2017. In 2017, we had the #7 pick acquired in the Jimmy deal. If that draft were run again today, I think Lauri still goes in the 7-10 range. Tatum, Bam, Mitchell, and Fox obviously all go before him. John Collins and Lonzo Ball probably go before him as well. That puts Lauri at 7. I don't think there's anyone else that obviously would've been a better pick than Lauri. You can certainly make arguments for Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kuzma, Derrick White, and I guess some people are still high on Jonathan Isaac(though I never was), but I don't think any of them are overwhelmingly better and even if you do take some of those guys over Lauri, he still might stay in the top 10, depending on your views on some of those guys.

It's true we passed on both Mitchell and Bam, but so did five other teams. On draft night, no one knew those two were going to be what they are. I don't even think Utah and Miami expected them to be this good. I still remember stories throughout 2017-18 about what a find the Jazz made with Mitchell, and Bam wasn't even a starter until last season. To criticize not taking those guys is like criticizing the twelve teams who passed on Giannis in 2013. Not to mention even if we did like Mitchell back then, we had just traded for LaVine, and those two are too similar.

It's also worth noting that if you look at all #7 picks from the last 30 years, Lauri probably falls in the top third of players on that list too. He's not a star, he's not close to a star, probably the best he can be going forward in his career is a fifth guy in a starting lineup or a sixth man, as I said in another thread. But it doesn't mean he was a bad pick. I wouldn't call him a great pick either, at this point. But some of you seem to think there are only great picks and bad picks. Lauri was a solid pick. Not great. Not bad. Just solid.

In 2019, we had the bad lotto luck of falling from #4 to #7. To an even greater extent than 2017, there really was no obviously better talent on the board at #7 that year than Coby, with one exception: Tyler Herro. And, as with Mitchell and Bam, no one thought Herro was going to be as good as he's been(even so, Herro has regressed, as the whole Heat team has, this season and some of his advanced stats and 3P% are actually worse than Coby's right now). Maybe Keldon Johnson. But who out of Hachiumura, Reddish, NAW, Thybulle, PJ Washington, Nassir Little, etc, would've been a better pick or made any difference to the trajectory of our team? None of them. Aside from Herro, Coby was about as good as we could've done with that pick in that draft. Sometimes the best you can do in a draft isn't as good as you want it to be. The real issue with that draft is that it wasn't deep and we didn't have lotto luck on our side.

I would also remind you that a guy a lot of people wanted to trade up for on draft night, perhaps some of the same people who think Coby was a bad pick, was Jarrett Culver, and that clearly would've been a bad move as he hasn't done much of anything yet. Coby is clearly not a PG, but I think he will be a decent player in this league in the right role.

As for 2020, I don't think I need to defend Pat Williams too much as people seem to be fairly optimistic about him, he's had less than a season so far, and it was a crappy overall draft anyway - I think Haliburton is the only guy a lot of you would take over him at #4 at this point, and he fell all the way to #12.

But 2018, man. That's the one we should all still be upset about. That was the one we truly screwed up. That was perhaps the best draft of the last five years and we blew it. It's not that I dislike Carter so much, it's that there was opportunity after opportunity to do much better.

We started messing it up before that season even started. The notion that we shouldn't have re-signed Niko that summer is not a hindsight opinion on my part. I remember seeing the news before training camp in the Fall of 2017 and not being thrilled about it. We just dealt Jimmy and entered a rebuild, we should've been tanking as hard as possible. Niko hadn't received a single offer all summer. By bringing him back, he was either going to live up to his lack of offers and be a waste of cap space, or he was going to be just talented enough to screw up our tank. By 2017, Niko had been with us for three years, and the hope that he'd be a player to build around was gone; but we all knew he was talented enough to add a few wins to our record in a season we didn't want to win in. The whole thing with him and Portis happened early on, but when Niko came back, we had a stretch where we won ten games out of twelve including a seven-game winning streak . It was physically painful to watch. A ton of teams were tanking that year for that draft, and it was just slipping away before our eyes. People complained about the Sean Kilpatrick signing for similar reasons, but he wouldn't have mattered if Niko hadn't been around.

By the time the draft came around, we were picking at #7. If there was any draft in the last five years to trade assets, including future picks, to move up in, this was the one. There were reports that GarPax tried, but what else were they going to say? I remain highly skeptical that they made any serious effort to move up if it involved moving future draft capital. And worse, reports suggested that if they did move up, it would be not for Doncic, not for Trae, not for JJJ, but for Bagley.

Even when #7 came, there were better players there. I know a bunch of other teams passed on MPJ too because of the health questions, but I was sitting there screaming(not literally) for us to take the risk, begging them to take the risk, that it would be a boon to get him at #7. No, and now he's looking like a potential star. Sexton was there. SGA - who was not on my radar at the time but was on other peoples' - was there.

There were multiple ways to walk out of that draft with a difference-maker that would've given this whole rebuild a different look, a different tenor, a different feel. They just made so many mistakes with that draft, from the beginning of the season all the way to draft night. Again, this isn't about hating on Carter - I think he can still grow into being a solid player - but there was no good reason for us not to leave that draft with a substantially better piece that very well could've made the whole rebuild look substantially different.

(And none of that even mentions the Chandler Hutchison pick at #22, meaning our reward for Niko killing our draft position was...not much.)

I don't think there were any glaring draft mistakes of the variety that keep you up at night made in 2017, 2019, or 2020 - and again that doesn't mean I think Lauri, Coby, and PWill are such great players, just that I that I don't think they were bad picks - but 2018 should still gnaw at us.

JMO, and I'm prepared to be disagreed with.

[MrSparkle]

I was pretty upset that they kept RoLo for 2017/18. Everyone talks about Niko, but if you want to win a bunch of pointless regular season games against bad lazy teams, then get yourself a lunch-and-pail hustle center in his prime. Glad he mentored Lauri, Portis, Niko and Felicio into successful careers.. along with Wendell. Loved that Pax strategy; ‘Let’s keep a mediocre vet starter with the same skill set to teach our top pick how to play.’ Worked brilliantly with Wallace and Noah. All whilst your top acquisition rehabbed his ACL; perfect time to tank. Classic GarPax idiocy. But it’s done.

[sco]

Sorry, I really hate after-the-fact draft critiquing. It's too easy to introduce hindsight bias.

I really only go off on the FO when they choose to draft for need over talent, which is a loser proposition (e.g. McDermott). The draft is the best vehicle for teams to radically improve by lucking into a star...either via lucky lotto draw (e.g. Rose) or finding an undiscovered gem later in the draft (e.g. Butler).

[FranchisePlayer]

@OldSchoolNoBull, thanks. You had certainly put a lot of thought into this!

I agree with most you said, a good post. Yet, in the grand scheme of things I don't think 2018 draft had such a significant role in how the Bulls look today. Even if it left something or even much to be desired.

[PlayerUp]

No doubt they screwed up 2018. That was the worst during the rebuild. Michael Porter had fallen down and we could have taken a risk on a star ceiling player. Now Porter is breaking out, about to get a max deal and Carter has been sold for pennies on the dollar.

For 2019/2020, we could have tried to move up but other than that Pat and Coby were quality picks those drafts.

[pipfan]

I agree, although I was happy with the Carter pick. I thought he was the bpa, although I was intrigued by SGA. I didn't want us to pick Porter. But, I am not paid a ton of money to analyze picks-Pax screwed up that draft. What I liked least about Carter was his attitude/body language. That kills a team's spirit.

Even though Coby hasn't worked out, he was the right pick there, and there's still hope for Lauri

[Wingy]

Failing to tank for the 2018 tank is a universally known GarPax horror show (minus one poster recently debating me that it wasn't).

However stating we screwed up not taking guys after WCJ, and citing SGA...Sexton...which implies they were somehow more well known, sure things as opposed to other examples like Bam, and Mitchell? I just don't see how one's distinct enough to warrant its own thread. I don't mean that in a backseat moderator sense mind you. Just saying it's comparing apples to apples, but you're just calling one an orange.

Edit: I think a guy like Thybulle would be HUGE for this current team over Coby. Not that he was any kind of obvious pick in our range though.

[coldfish]

I've done this before but if you go on b-ref you can sort draft classes by VORP. You can see the players who have contributed more than your pick.

2017: Mitchell, Bam, Allen, Collins, White, Anunoby, Bryant and Morris all have higher VORP than Lauri and were taken lower
2018: 12 players higher than Wendell. 30 players have done better than Hutch who were drafted behind him (which is crazy)
2019: Gafford was a very good pick for his position. An outright steal. 45 players have a better VORP than Coby though. Right now looks like a turrible pick.
2020: PW also looks pretty bad statistically.

Just for reference:
2003: Hinrich 4th
2004: Gordon 9th, Deng 3rd, Duhon 2nd
2006: Tyrus 14th
2007: Noah 2nd
2008: Rose 7th (with a big asterisk)
2009: Johnson 6th, Gibson 5th
2011: Butler 1st

As you can see, the Bulls used to regularly get one of the 5 best players available at the draft spot. Now they frequently draft the worst players in the entire draft.

[transplant]

I've done this before but if you go on b-ref you can sort draft classes by VORP. You can see the players who have contributed more than your pick.

2017: Mitchell, Bam, Allen, Collins, White, Anunoby, Bryant and Morris all have higher VORP than Lauri and were taken lower
2018: 12 players higher than Wendell. 30 players have done better than Hutch who were drafted behind him (which is crazy)
2019: Gafford was a very good pick for his position. An outright steal. 45 players have a better VORP than Coby though. Right now looks like a turrible pick.
2020: PW also looks pretty bad statistically.

Just for reference:
2003: Hinrich 4th
2004: Gordon 9th, Deng 3rd, Duhon 2nd
2006: Tyrus 14th
2007: Noah 2nd
2008: Rose 7th (with a big asterisk)
2009: Johnson 6th, Gibson 5th
2011: Butler 1st

As you can see, the Bulls used to regularly get one of the 5 best players available at the draft spot. Now they frequently draft the worst players in the entire draft.

This is interesting. From the many mock drafts, I don't recall the Bulls significantly "reaching" on any of their #7 picks.

[Ice Man]

OP and Coldfish wrote about different topics, and they are both correct. The 2018 draft was the biggest missed opportunity in recent years, and GarPax went from having the most draft success in the league for their first 9 years to having almost the least over the next 9 years.

[coldfish]

OP and Coldfish wrote about different topics, and they are both correct. The 2018 draft was the biggest missed opportunity in recent years, and GarPax went from having the most draft success in the league for their first 9 years to having almost the least over the next 9 years.

I'm functionally disagreeing with the OP that the 2018 draft was a special screw up. It just came in line with a bunch of other terrible drafts.

I don't think there were any glaring draft mistakes of the variety that keep you up at night made in 2017, 2019, or 2020 - and again that doesn't mean I think Lauri, Coby, and PWill are such great players, just that I that I don't think they were bad picks - but 2018 should still gnaw at us.

......

Just to put some more into my thoughts, 2018 had one difference maker. Luka. The Bulls didn't even want him and were targeting Bagley by reports. Even if they super tanked, the Bulls would have missed. JJ isn't all that. Ayton is ehhh. Trae Young isn't bad but he isn't a superstar.

I'll try to rephrase: Even if the Bulls landed in the right spot in 2018, their long line of bad draft decisions would have had them walk away with a bust. Had they actually been drafting correctly, they would have had a lot of chances at better players.

[Ice Man]

I'm functionally disagreeing with the OP that the 2018 draft was a special screw up. It just came in line with a bunch of other terrible drafts.

Well maybe, but I am convinced by his argument that on several fronts that was the worst of the recent missed opportunities.

[coldfish]

I'm functionally disagreeing with the OP that the 2018 draft was a special screw up. It just came in line with a bunch of other terrible drafts.

Well maybe, but I am convinced by his argument that on several fronts that was the worst of the recent missed opportunities.

It was the biggest miss because it was the best player who could have been drafted. Luka. I just edited my post above to add to it though. The Bulls wouldn't have taken Luka even if they got a chance to. Outside of Luka, I'm more pissed about missing out on Mitchell or Bam than Trae or JJ.

[ChettheJet]

Looking back 4 years knowing how all the players panned out as pros doesn't even register as fantasy BB. You know what could be just as easily, the guys that you think they could or would have drafted could have gotten injured in Chicago and been nothing. Conversely the guys the Bulls picked who you think are busts, could have gone to another team, with a different coach and a different system and 3 other players on that team would have complimented the skills they brought and they would have been all stars. Go buy a bunch of dolls and pretend they're your family.

[WindyCityBorn]

Looking back 4 years knowing how all the players panned out as pros doesn't even register as fantasy BB. You know what could be just as easily, the guys that you think they could or would have drafted could have gotten injured in Chicago and been nothing. Conversely the guys the Bulls picked who you think are busts, could have gone to another team, with a different coach and a different system and 3 other players on that team would have complimented the skills they brought and they would have been all stars. Go buy a bunch of dolls and pretend they're your family.

Carter never had star upside which is what we needed. Porter was the obvious choice, but our front office was too scared to take a chance.

Lauri, Carter, Coby. Three low ceiling prospects. Glad we swung for the fences with Williams.

[Axl Rose]

Failing to tank for the 2018 tank is a universally known GarPax horror show (minus one poster recently debating me that it wasn't).

Yeah that 10 (or however long it was) game win streak because of Niko was brutal. The asset we got back for him turned into Chandler Hutchinson who sucked and didn't play a seasons worth games total in his 3 seasons here. Horror show is right.

[Michael Jackson]

While MPJ was a big miss, his medical were terrible by all accounts. I also think Denver had a structure where his attitude could exist, where if he was I. The Bulls with Hoiberg or Boylen and was “The Man” in Chicago that his maturity issues are way worse her and he might not develop. He surely would be out at the end of his contract too. Obviously still because his back has held up, he would have been way more valuable at this point as a trade chip though so it is a miss.

Honestly the fact that we wanted Bagley by reports just makes me sad though. He would have faired just as poorly as he has in Sacto. I bet Bagkey would have been better and healthier if he got drafted by the Spurs... and would be up for a much better contract, but that is why getting drafted high isn’t always a bowl of cherries unless you really are a generational talent.

GarPax if nothing else were the worst tankers ever that much is for sure.

[Fastbrk4brkfast]

While MPJ was a big miss, his medical were terrible by all accounts. I also think Denver had a structure where his attitude could exist, where if he was I. The Bulls with Hoiberg or Boylen and was “The Man” in Chicago that his maturity issues are way worse her and he might not develop. He surely would be out at the end of his contract too. Obviously still because his back has held up, he would have been way more valuable at this point as a trade chip though so it is a miss.

Honestly the fact that we wanted Bagley by reports just makes me sad though. He would have faired just as poorly as he has in Sacto. I bet Bagkey would have been better and healthier if he got drafted by the Spurs... and would be up for a much better contract, but that is why getting drafted high isn’t always a bowl of cherries unless you really are a generational talent.

GarPax if nothing else were the worst tankers ever that much is for sure.

Missing on MPJ always bothered me because he was the ideal pick for what GarPax were trying to do. To all appearances they were trying to build a quick 2 year tank with a quick bounceback. Taking Zach for Jimmy helps you do that because you build the timeline around his injury recovery. MPJ was a chance to do the same - stay bad for a couple years then get back to building. That's why you hire Hoiberg who was okay with development and losibg unlike Thibs. The reason they didn't take him was they couldn't take the heat after Rose's long injury struggles. They were literally drafting out of fear to keep their jobs. That's why they should've been gone right after Thibs imo.

[Am2626]

While MPJ was a big miss, his medical were terrible by all accounts.I also think Denver had a structure where his attitude could exist, where if he was I. The Bulls with Hoiberg or Boylen and was “The Man” in Chicago that his maturity issues are way worse her and he might not develop. He surely would be out at the end of his contract too. Obviously still because his back has held up, he would have been way more valuable at this point as a trade chip though so it is a miss.

Honestly the fact that we wanted Bagley by reports just makes me sad though. He would have faired just as poorly as he has in Sacto. I bet Bagkey would have been better and healthier if he got drafted by the Spurs... and would be up for a much better contract, but that is why getting drafted high isn’t always a bowl of cherries unless you really are a generational talent.

GarPax if nothing else were the worst tankers ever that much is for sure.

That just goes to show how much stock really should be taken with Medicals. These are all young athletes is great physical condition and with the advancements in medicine what was once looked at as a career ending injury should no longer be looked at in the same way. At pick 7 MPJ should not have been looked at as a major risk. At 3 or 4 yes I would pass but not at 7.

[Hold That]

Not drafting MPJ hurt this team in a major way. He wanted to be a Bull, did everything we asked of him leading up to the draft and even let the Bulls control who gets his medicals.

Drafting Wendell hurt this team more than any other draft pick over the least 5 years. we would’ve been much better off having MPJ sit his rookie year(as he did) the following year was the Zion draft, you’d think they would’ve been aware of that. I can see AK seeing it the same exact way, which is why he likely traded Wendell so damn quickly because him being on the roster was always a reminder of that major screw up.

You could argue Wendell is just as if not more injury prone that MPJ. The talent level was ALWAYS heavily in favor of MPJ, I still don’t understand why we passed on him. Taking MPJ in the top 3 is a risk, but when you’re outside of the top 5 that’s where you take risk. Drafting Wendell who wasn’t even the best freshman on his own team and didn’t have great athletic or offensive moves was highly questionable. Wendell pick set this franchise back 4 years.

I just never took anyone’s opinion on this board seriously after I saw many posters want to pass on a guy that had ball handling and shooting skills standing 6’10-6’11.. something he displayed ALL throughout high school, since he was a sophomore. But these are the same people who had prospects like Tatum ranked so low and the same who currently rank Scottie Barnes out of the top 5. You just don’t pass on big guys who move like guards and can dribble like them. You’ll see Kuminga go higher than him and mark my words he will not have a better career for the reasons I stated about bigs who can create their own on the perimeter.

If you can’t create for yourself in TODAYS game you’ll be screwed. Pass first point guards are becoming non existent, so good luck trying to get consistent passes from the wave of score first guards that are arriving in droves in today’s game. Any player who can dribble and create will be able to “eat” whenever they touch the ball and don’t have to be in a perfect position or wait for a guard to put them in a perfect spot. Again you do not pass on those types.