Rui Hachimura

[TGW]

Kevin Broom is an unapologetic Rui hater and his analysis should not be trusted when it comes to Rui.

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Worth mentioning that a 33.3% FG% on 3-pointers is exactly equivalent to a 50% FG % on 2-pointers.

[Kanyewest]

Kevin Broom is being a bit selective with his numbers since he's including the last 9 games instead of the last 10 or 11 games. For instance, Rui is shooting 41% from 3 over his last 11 and 37% from 3 over his last 10.

So technically he may be right that Rui's performance has declined since he last did his analysis. However, Rui is still playing better than he was during that stretch in February.

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That's because in the last 3 games, he hasn't had Bradley Beal to draw defensive attention. Rui isn't yet good enough of a shot creator to be the second option. Right now he is a third option. He still needs most of his shots to be in the flow of the offense or against a mismatch. He's not yet good enough to just create his own shot against a primary defender in a set defense with high efficiency. Few 2nd year players are.

But let's not diminish his scoring volume on mediocre efficiency. That's not easy either. How many guys in his draft class can do it other than Zion and Morant? My quick screen of the stats over the last 10 games ...

As I'm sure you are aware, if you know in advance what you want to prove, you can always find a dataset to prove it true. In this case, why would we measure comparative scoring over the last 10 games? B/c Rui had a string of better than usual games than usual? So we should look at other guys across the same stretch of time?

How about we measure over the season as a whole? Tell you what... I'll go look.

...Well that took 90 seconds. Let's just start with Keldon Johnson, a 6'5" guard-forward, who was taken #29 in the same draft in which Rui went #9. Two years younger than Rui.

The two guys have played almost exactly the same # of minutes this year -- But Johnson only played 300 minutes last year, so Rui has twice the experience.

As scorers this year, the 2 of them are very close. Johnson scores @ 1/3 point more than Rui per 40 minutes. Rui's TS% is @1.5% below average at his position; Johnson's is @1% lower than average at his position.

The rest isn't really close: Johnson's a 2-3 -- yet he gets slightly more defensive boards than Rui, he gets way more offensive boards than Rui, he blocks way more shots than Rui, & he gets more assists than Rui. Rui closes the gap a little by logging slightly more steals & slightly fewer fouls.

If we just look at how well guys have played overall -- i.e. rather than focusing on scoring whether efficient or inefficient -- it would be easy to add several more players taken well after Rui in the same draft who have been significantly better so far than Rui has been.

But, there would be no point to the exercise, just as there is no point to the exercise of demonstrating that, somehow, Rui increasing his scoring while lowering efficiency is evidence of what a good player he is. Every player in every league in every country on planet Earth will score more points if he takes more shots!

Rui is a 23 year old NBA player who has logged @2700 minutes in his first 2 years in the league. Has he been good so far? No. Is he good right now? No. Rui is a well below average NBA player. Will he be good some day? I hope so. & so do you. But, I don't know that he will be. & neither do you.

Most important: my pointing to the facts won't hold Rui back, & a bunch of fans on a message board blowing in his balloon won't accelerate his growth either.

Rinse & repeat with Deni Avdija -- I thought he'd be good right away. So far, he's been bad. So far, it looks like we'd have been a whole lot better off taking Haliburton this year & trading down last year to get Mr. Unnameable & Keldon Johnson.

Players aren't just numbers on a spreadsheet. I highly doubt the same players who succeed elsewhere succeed the same way under this coaching staff.

You may well be right. I've criticized Brooks consistently. In fact, while a lot of people here were excited when he was hired almost 5 years ago, I saw no reason for their enthusiasm. He took a team with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook & James Harden to the Finals. Seemed to me that Mickey Mouse could have done that!

OTOH, since getting healthy, Russell Westbrook has been better than he was last year. John Wall didn't improve when he went off to play for another coach. Davis Bertans had the best season of his career last year -- playing for us.

Of course, they could all have been even better somewhere else!

One way or the other, however, we still have to understand what they're doing & how they're doing it. A player's not a spreadsheet, it's good to keep that in mind, but a higher FG% is still better than a lower one. More rebounds are to be preferred to fewer rebounds. Lots of turnovers is still bad, & lots of steals is still good.

It's a little bit like draft picks: you can't know that the guy who goes #6 will be better than the guy who goes #14. Or that the guy who goes #30 won't be better than both of them put together! But, you'd still rather have a higher pick, right?

In just the same way, you'd rather have guys who put up good numbers than guys who put up bad numbers.

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Kevin Broom is being a bit selective with his numbers since he's including the last 9 games instead of the last 10 or 11 games. For instance, Rui is shooting 41% from 3 over his last 11 and 37% from 3 over his last 10....

You don't mean he's being "a bit selective." You mean you want to be the one making the selection. That one game you want to leave out... it lowers Rui's % -- can't have that in there.

So technically he may be right that Rui's performance has declined since he last did his analysis. However, Rui is still playing better than he was during that stretch in February.

Yes, in February, Rui was really really bad. In March he was just bad -- not "really really bad." Maybe not even "really bad."

So, he's improved to being just plain "bad." Is that your point?

Thing is... it wasn't Kevin's point, was it? Kevin's point was that the "management-fan narrative" is that Rui is making "a leap." But, the facts are different. The facts are as Kevin describes them.

[Kanyewest]

Kevin Broom is being a bit selective with his numbers since he's including the last 9 games instead of the last 10 or 11 games. For instance, Rui is shooting 41% from 3 over his last 11 and 37% from 3 over his last 10....

You don't mean he's being "a bit selective." You mean you want to be the one making the selection. That one game you want to leave out... it lowers Rui's % -- can't have that in there.

So technically he may be right that Rui's performance has declined since he last did his analysis. However, Rui is still playing better than he was during that stretch in February.

Yes, in February, Rui was really really bad. In March he was just bad -- not "really really bad." Maybe not even "really bad."

So, he's improved to being just plain "bad." Is that your point?
Thing is... it wasn't Kevin's point, was it? Kevin's point was that the "management-fan narrative" is that Rui is making "a leap." But, the facts are different. The facts are as Kevin describes them.

Yes the 9 game sample size is weirdly random IMO given when people started noting Rui's play given that Broom's point of contention given when people started praising Rui's play. IIRC it happened moreso after the Bucks game where Rui has as many points as his previous 3 games combined and his rebound total in his previous 4 games combined. Maybe Broom has noted more praise over this 9 game stretch (although I noticed this thread was noticeably silent after the dud Rui put up in the last game). At least, I don't think Rui has played significantly better since those Bucks games.

[Shoe]

Kevin Brooms hacky analysis

Read on Twitter

What college was he a video coordinator at? He's feeding box scores into a formula that exists only on a Wizards fan blog.

Despite The Narrative, he’s still a weak defender. His lack of defensive awareness is at times stunning to watch.

No film. No clips. Horrible way to judge defense. Switching onto a guard in isolation and forcing him to pass out >>>>>>>>>>> a blocked shot.

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So Shoe... is that meant as a critique of Kevin Broom? That's how I take it. Maybe I'm wrong.

Who do you think watches more games, puts more time into analysis of what he sees, etc.? You? Me? or Kevin Broom?

Or are you suggesting that there's some kind of built in choice between "Switching onto a guard in isolation and forcing him to pass out" vs. "a blocked shot"? It's one or the other? Is that it?

Myles Turner blocks a lot of shots -- is that an indication he's a bad defensive player? Is that what you're suggesting?

Kevin Durant blocks @ 7 times as many shots as Rui -- another example of a worse defender than Rui? Draymond also?

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Daniel Gafford has blocked what 5 shots in 28 minutes for us? Terrible defender, right...?

[Kanyewest]

Rui out tonight- box score should list out because PIF hurt his feelings.

[nate33]

Kevin Brooms hacky analysis

Read on Twitter

What college was he a video coordinator at? He's feeding box scores into a formula that exists only on a Wizards fan blog.

Despite The Narrative, he’s still a weak defender. His lack of defensive awareness is at times stunning to watch.

No film. No clips. Horrible way to judge defense. Switching onto a guard in isolation and forcing him to pass out >>>>>>>>>>> a blocked shot.

PPA seems like a pretty useful box score summary stat, but like any other box score summary stat, it is limited by what is tracked by box score. I'm sure Kevin Broom would agree with that statement.

It's true that Rui's box score stats have not been significantly better (on a per minutes basis) in recent games than over the entire season, but what has changed is his on/off differential. He had a major inflection point starting on March 4th.

Prior to March 4th, Hachimura's on/off differential was -9.0. The team was 9.0 points worse per 100 possessions with Hachimura on the floor. After March 4th, the Hachimura's on/off differential has been +5.8, second best on the team behind only Beal. It was right about that time when Rui committing himself to being a defensive stopper. He plays positional defense so it doesn't show up in the steals and blocks column on the box score, but his defense has been instrumental in his improved play.

It's worth mentioning that on/off data is very noisy over small sample sizes. But this is a massive change that seems difficult to explain by mere noise.

[payitforward]

PPA seems like a pretty useful box score summary stat, but like any other box score summary stat, it is limited by what is tracked by box score. I'm sure Kevin Broom would agree with that statement....

I'm sure he would. I certainly do. A box score is not an n-dimensional reproduction of a game. Not at all.

For that matter, no metric of any kind, no matter how it's constructed, no matter what it measures, is a reproduction of the reality it is applied to. In fact, it's not intended to be that!

In fact, it's intended to be the opposite of that. It's intended to simplify & order the "data" of reality into something that can be understood, something that can be represented as a measurement, & something that is predictive of results. Emphasis on all points -- but especially on "predictive of results."

Box score stats (properly weighted & measured) are a perfect example of that. From the box score stats I can derive -- with 100% accuracy -- the winner & loser of any game. I will never be wrong as long as I can do simple arithmetic.

& since box score stats are no more than columns of the exact same data for each individual who plays in the game, we have a solid presumption that they tell us the contribution of each individual to that perfectly-predicting result -- i.e. the contributions of individual player's to the result of the game.

"Solid presumption" doesn't mean "n-dimensional reproduction" of "the truth." You don't get that from any measure, sorry. Of course, there are inter-dependencies & interactions among players that set up the things guys do.

But, those are only limitations to the last degrees of accuracy, they don't render the box score stats meaningless! Bradley Beal is an outstanding player, & you can see that in the outstanding box score stats he puts up. Jerome Robinson isn't a good player, & you can see that in the bad box score numbers he puts up.

In fact, the great players in the league put up great box score numbers. The bad players in the league put up bad box score numbers. & Average players put up average box score numbers.

LeBron James's box score numbers show how great he is. & Rui Hachimura's box score numbers also tell you how good a player he is.

In fact, it's where box score data tries to interpret those "inter-dependencies & interactions" that it is least meaningful. & that is why the following has very little significance:

...Rui's box score stats ...what has changed is his on/off differential. ...Prior to March 4th, Hachimura's on/off differential was -9.0. The team was 9.0 points worse per 100 possessions with Hachimura on the floor. After March 4th, the Hachimura's on/off differential has been +5.8, second best on the team behind only Beal....

It has little meaning, b/c it doesn't measure anything much about Rui; it measures what the other guys on the team do who happen to be on the floor when he is on or off the floor or else off the floor when he is on or off. & what he does too -- of course. But, we know what he does from his individual numbers.

In Brad's case, his on/off is best on the team, because he's the best player on the team. In Rui's case, the improvement in his on/off overlaps with Russell Westbrook's best play as a Wizard. &, of course, Rui is pretty much always on the floor with Brad, so....

& what do we do when we have a number that doesn't really measure anything real? But it's a number we like? We tell a story about it:

...It was right about that time when Rui committing himself to being a defensive stopper....

That's not meant as a criticism of nate -- not at all: this is what all of us do when we want to give straightforward meaning to a data point that doesn't really have it. It's what Kevin is referring to as "the narrative." The story in which Rui just keeps getting better & better -- even when his results aren't improving, when in fact they aren't good. & in fact, nate understands this perfectly well. He goes on to note that:

...It's worth mentioning that on/off data is very noisy over small sample sizes. But this is a massive change that seems difficult to explain by mere noise.

The first sentence is correct. But the second sentence is the opposite: in fact, large changes over small sample sizes are exactly what is typical. They are exactly the kind of thing from which we draw no conclusions at all!

For example, if Rui -- or any player -- scores 10 points in one game & then scores 30 points in the following game, we don't say "that's a big change; hard to explain by noise." We don't conclude that the player has experienced a major improvement!

&, if he drops down to 12 points in the game that follows these two, we don't say uh oh such a massive change for the worse can't be explained as noise.

In other words, Kevin Broom's analysis of Rui is right on the money. So far he isn't very good. But everyone wants him to be good, which is reflected in a narrative that exults when he does something good & explains away everything he does that isn't good.

[nate33]

PPA seems like a pretty useful box score summary stat, but like any other box score summary stat, it is limited by what is tracked by box score. I'm sure Kevin Broom would agree with that statement....

I'm sure he would. I certainly do. A box score is not an n-dimensional reproduction of a game. Not at all.

For that matter, no metric of any kind, no matter how it's constructed, no matter what it measures, is a reproduction of the reality it is applied to. In fact, it's not intended to be that!

In fact, it's intended to be the opposite of that. It's intended to simplify & order the "data" of reality into something that can be understood, something that can be represented as a measurement, & something that is predictive of results. Emphasis on all points -- but especially on "predictive of results."

Box score stats (properly weighted & measured) are a perfect example of that. From the box score stats I can derive -- with 100% accuracy -- the winner & loser of any game. I will never be wrong as long as I can do simple arithmetic.

& since box score stats are no more than columns of the exact same data for each individual who plays in the game, we have a solid presumption that they tell us the contribution of each individual to that perfectly-predicting result -- i.e. the contributions of individual player's to the result of the game.

"Solid presumption" doesn't mean "n-dimensional reproduction" of "the truth." You don't get that from any measure, sorry. Of course, there are inter-dependencies & interactions among players that set up the things guys do.

But, those are only limitations to the last degrees of accuracy, they don't render the box score stats meaningless! Bradley Beal is an outstanding player, & you can see that in the outstanding box score stats he puts up. Jerome Robinson isn't a good player, & you can see that in the bad box score numbers he puts up.

In fact, the great players in the league put up great box score numbers. The bad players in the league put up bad box score numbers. & Average players put up average box score numbers.

LeBron James's box score numbers show how great he is. & Rui Hachimura's box score numbers also tell you how good a player he is.

In fact, it's where box score data tries to interpret those "inter-dependencies & interactions" that it is least meaningful. & that is why the following has very little significance:

...Rui's box score stats ...what has changed is his on/off differential. ...Prior to March 4th, Hachimura's on/off differential was -9.0. The team was 9.0 points worse per 100 possessions with Hachimura on the floor. After March 4th, the Hachimura's on/off differential has been +5.8, second best on the team behind only Beal....

It has little meaning, b/c it doesn't measure anything much about Rui; it measures what the other guys on the team do who happen to be on the floor when he is on or off the floor or else off the floor when he is on or off. & what he does too -- of course. But, we know what he does from his individual numbers.

In Brad's case, his on/off is best on the team, because he's the best player on the team. In Rui's case, the improvement in his on/off overlaps with Russell Westbrook's best play as a Wizard. &, of course, Rui is pretty much always on the floor with Brad, so....

& what do we do when we have a number that doesn't really measure anything real? But it's a number we like? We tell a story about it:

...It was right about that time when Rui committing himself to being a defensive stopper....

That's not meant as a criticism of nate -- not at all: this is what all of us do when we want to give straightforward meaning to a data point that doesn't really have it. It's what Kevin is referring to as "the narrative." The story in which Rui just keeps getting better & better -- even when his results aren't improving, when in fact they aren't good. & in fact, nate understands this perfectly well. He goes on to note that:

...It's worth mentioning that on/off data is very noisy over small sample sizes. But this is a massive change that seems difficult to explain by mere noise.

The first sentence is correct. But the second sentence is the opposite: in fact, large changes over small sample sizes are exactly what is typical. They are exactly the kind of thing from which we draw no conclusions at all!

For example, if Rui -- or any player -- scores 10 points in one game & then scores 30 points in the following game, we don't say "that's a big change; hard to explain by noise." We don't conclude that the player has experienced a major improvement!

&, if he drops down to 12 points in the game that follows these two, we don't say uh oh such a massive change for the worse can't be explained as noise.

In other words, Kevin Broom's analysis of Rui is right on the money. So far he isn't very good. But everyone wants him to be good, which is reflected in a narrative that exults when he does something good & explains away everything he does that isn't good.

This entire post said nothing meaningful. You are so hell bent on repeating your tired only mantra about box scores that my entire point went right over your head.

It's not even worth arguing with you anymore on this. You won't listen. Box scores do not capture everything about basketball. It is possible to be very helpful to a team while posting lackluster box score numbers.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Kevin Broom is an unapologetic Rui hater and his analysis should not be trusted when it comes to Rui.

Green font noted.

Years back Kevin noted the inefficiency of Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and Zach Randolph. Those type players have been IMO overvalued due to their high volume of shots.

[9 and 20]

Without wading into the boxscore debate, it would be hard to watch Hachimura and not conclude that he is playing differently these last several games. He looks more aggressive on both offense and defense. I think the overall impact has been positive, but I'm not sure how that plays out in the boxscore. I also think it bodes well for him that he's playing more aggressively - that should help him play better, which is the important thing.

Maybe he could have transferred some of his passivity to Russ, while he was at it.

[DCZards]

Without wading into the boxscore debate, it would be hard to watch Hachimura and not conclude that he is playing differently these last several games. He looks more aggressive on both offense and defense. I think the overall impact has been positive, but I'm not sure how that plays out in the boxscore. I also think it bodes well for him that he's playing more aggressively - that should help him play better, which is the important thing.

Maybe he could have transferred some of his passivity to Russ, while he was at it.

Learning HOW to play is often the first step towards playing BETTER. I believe that's what we're seeing happening now with Rui...who has gotten better on both ends of the floor this season, despite what the box scores, pundits or analytics might say.

[The Consiglieri]

The thing that I find amusing is the "take" that everyone's getting overheated over Rui. Seems like there are a ton of people who hated the selection two years ago and still hate it now, and it's other players, coaches, and the media that are high on him. Could be wrong though, I'm on the other side of the country, so I don't bump into other wizards fans ever except on this board, and boards tended to be a bit more intense and more fleshed out in takes, than average fans. I'm excited, in a bad draft we got a solid player who might be a lot better than that. Odds were we were going to get a bust.

[dckingsfan]

The thing that I find amusing is the "take" that everyone's getting overheated over Rui. Seems like there are a ton of people who hated the selection two years ago and still hate it now, and it's other players, coaches, and the media that are high on him. Could be wrong though, I'm on the other side of the country, so I don't bump into other wizards fans ever except on this board, and boards tended to be a bit more intense and more fleshed out in takes, than average fans. I'm excited, in a bad draft we got a solid player who might be a lot better than that. Odds were we were going to get a bust.

This is a good take - he is what he is... and he isn't a bust. Odds are he is never going to carry a franchise but could be a meaningful piece either on the court or if he is traded.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Without wading into the boxscore debate, it would be hard to watch Hachimura and not conclude that he is playing differently these last several games. He looks more aggressive on both offense and defense. I think the overall impact has been positive, but I'm not sure how that plays out in the boxscore. I also think it bodes well for him that he's playing more aggressively - that should help him play better, which is the important thing.

Maybe he could have transferred some of his passivity to Russ, while he was at it.

Learning HOW to play is often the first step towards playing BETTER. I believe that's what we're seeing happening now with Rui...who has gotten better on both ends of the floor this season, despite what the box scores, pundits or analytics might say.

I agree.

He's going to get old man strength and old man mean/life tested. He's soft but he has heart. He will push back. He's never going to instinctively do what Brandon Clarke or Xavier Tillman do, but he's going to eventually figure out what the high motor guys LIKE WESTBROOK do when they're not trying to score. Fly around like a bat out of hell, not avoiding contact.

I have said in the past that Rui is jus meh. He's just a guy out there as far as I WAS CONCERNED.

Now? I'm intrigued. He is playing aggressivER. I know, bad English...

[payitforward]

You're usually more respectful than you were in this post (I've removed that stuff). But, then, I'm sometimes not very respectful, so we'll just ignore all that -- in the hope that there really is something to the discussion.

Let me ask you a couple of things:

...Box scores do not capture everything about basketball....

Ummm, where did you get the data supporting your claim about the jump in Rui's play over a set of games?

We both know the answer, don't we? You got it all -- every single bit of it -- from the box scores of those games. Do I need to go back & quote you, or would you like to cop to it? His higher TS%. His little bump in rebounds. His improved on/off number. All box score stats.

...It is possible to be very helpful to a team while posting lackluster box score numbers.

Is the opposite possible too? To post better box score numbers while making your team worse?

What has our record been over the period when Rui was improving so much that he became "a legitimate 3d option?"

Back when you think Rui was worse than he is now, we were down @5.1 points per game to the league. In the games over the period when you think Rui has improved, we've been down about 10 points per game.

If Rui has been "very helpful to (the) team while posting lackluster box score numbers," why'd that happen? How has he been "very helpful?"

Was it all because Beal got worse? Hasn't Russ gotten better not worse? Gotta be somebody, right? Gotta be anybody but Rui! Rui can't be a bad player. After all, he's pushed his 3pt. % all the way up from a horrible 29% to a just plain lousy 33%. There's your "lackluster" stat -- what better proof could anyone want of how good Rui's gotten than the mediocre numbers he posts? Is that it?