Jrue Agrees to 4/135-160 Extension

[skones]

He's been a great, Lowry level player for the past 4-5 years (and so has Middleton), not just "this year". I've always pointed to him not having much success with AD as a reason why I feel like he's become a tad overrated over the years, but even I have to admit that he, until now, hasn't had the benefit of playing for a competent organization and coaching staff, which Lowry always did. The "star but not superstar" level guys always have a part of their legacies/perceptions that are dependent on outside circumstances. Lowry is probably one of the biggest confirmation bias cases when it comes to sudden playoff success elevating a guy who was quite literally once labelled a "playoff choker".

And you let the playoff choker label completely blot out his being the unquestioned best player on 6 50ish+ win caliber teams. That's not this common thing in the NBA over that type of span and you're completely throwing it out the window, because why? Because Dwane Casey is the shining example of competency on a coaching staff? C'mon.

[Ron Swanson]

He was considered a "playoff choker" because until his age-31 postseason (ironically how old Jrue is about to be), it was 100% true. I don't know how else to tell you that this "Kyle Lowry has always been elite!" thing is a myth. He wasn't exactly playing with bums when the Raptors were a Top-3 seed and he had just as much to do with getting swept in the playoffs in many of those years.

He had a rare career arc in that he didn't really peak as a basketball player until his early-30's, but even then, he never approached this all-time great "impact guy" level that people love to claim in hindsight (hell, Raptors have actually been worse with him on the floor vs. off in 3 of the last 4 seasons). Honestly don't know if I'd take "peak Lowry" over current Jrue, but to claim he was some tier or so above him? You're just flat out wrong on this one.

[BigO]

Lowry is a really good player, but he has not been consistently good and has had stretches where he has been really bad. They are similar in that both players can't be sped up and control a game when given a chance (hint Bud).

But if I have to have someone late in the game control the game and defend one of the opposition's best players, it's Holiday every day.

Most fans (and it's definitely true on this board) never understand that defense is 50% of the game. Jrue is one of the best. Great signing. I'm more than won over.

And the rumor that Horst would sign Austin Rivers is hopefully dead. I can't think of two more opposite type players in Rivers and Holiday. One is great. One is really bad.

[Prez]

Think the truth is somewhere in the middle with Lowry. He truly was a massive impact regular season player (less so this season, but definitely before this year) in his prime. But the playoff choker stuff isn’t totally untrue either. I think DeRozan was a waaaaaaay bigger part of their chokes, like DeMar legitimately sucked and was arguably a flat out negative for large portions of their playoff runs. And Lowry’s game was still valuable when his scoring fell off a lot. But that did happen at times. Just wasn’t dynamic enough as a scorer to sustain it in the playoffs consistently.

I think peak Lowry is the much better regular season engine, but Jrue’s game more playoff resilient. Obviously much smaller sample with Jrue but just basing this off that 18 run and generally how Jrue’s game is built.

[M-C-G]

Jrue’s game more playoff resilient.

I think this is the key for our team, so Lowry aside. Another ball handler, another creator, another defender, another good off ball player, and because he doesn't play at full speed to be good, I think he should be excellent add for the playoffs.

Same thing with Tucker, he probably does less for us regular season, but his 3 pt shooting in the playoffs the last three years?
46.7%
45.6%
37.3%

IF things play out the way I hope, this is the most 'complete' roster we have had since that 2000 team and frankly this team should be much better assuming people don't lose their ****.

[Wooderson]

Adding to the advanced stats talk, Holiday is 14th in RAPM over the last 5 years. He's a high impact, two-way player with a high BBIQ. All of which this team desperately needs come playoffs.

He's not an upper echelon guy...but I absolutely think he raises the Bucks title odds the next few years over alternative scenarios. Up to management to be creative around it.

[buckbeer]

[buckbeer]

Looks like the Bucks got a big discount from Jrue.

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/262156/Jrue-Holidays-Extension-Has-$209M-In-Unlikely-Bonuses

Jrue Holiday's Extension Has $20.9M In 'Unlikely Bonuses'
APR 5, 2021 11:51 AM

Jrue Holiday signed a four-year, $160 million extension with the Milwaukee Bucks over the weekend, but sources tell The Athletic that the deal contains approximately $25 million in bonuses.

Out of the $25 million, $20.9 million are deemed unlikely bonuses with $4.1 million deemed likely.

When taking the non-guaranteed money off the total, the guaranteed salary counts for approximately $135 million through the 24-25 season. Holiday secured a 120 percent raise from his $25.1 million base salary from this past season.

Holiday could have signed a four-year, $169.6 million contract with another team had he waiting for free agency, or approximately $228 million over five years with the Bucks.

[giannis and 1]

Three elite guys as our Big 3. And all of them are great organizational & cultural fits. Sure there are “more talented” players but I really like what we have.

People saying “Khris is next” are asinine. He’s been here since we had complete bums on the roster & is more than likely getting his jersey retired.

If a massive failure occurs, Bud is on the chopping block followed by Lopez.

If we don't make the finals this year:

Brook should 100% be gone
Bud should be gone
Middleton I'm 50/50 on

Middleton isn't going anywhere this summer.At the very least see how the core trio perform under a new coach and then decide.

I thought about this too, but idk. Feel like his contract is only going to get harder to trade if we don't do it this offseason.

[giannis and 1]

Three elite guys as our Big 3. And all of them are great organizational & cultural fits. Sure there are “more talented” players but I really like what we have.

People saying “Khris is next” are asinine. He’s been here since we had complete bums on the roster & is more than likely getting his jersey retired.

If a massive failure occurs, Bud is on the chopping block followed by Lopez.

If we don't make the finals this year:

Brook should 100% be gone
Bud should be gone
Middleton I'm 50/50 on

So let me understand if the bucks have a massive fail your #2 choice is brook is gone.Absolutly agree with bud as ges the HC (and a underachieving HC in the POs) but what the hell is brook at number 2 for.
So your saying it will be all brooks fault no matter how bad jrue plays giannis plays even midds doesnt matter your placing the 2nd most blame on tbe meltdown on brook no matter what anyone does.

No I'm not placing the blame on him. I just think that we really need to let him go because he is getting old and even slower, and because it would save cap space.

[giannis and 1]

Three elite guys as our Big 3. And all of them are great organizational & cultural fits. Sure there are “more talented” players but I really like what we have.

People saying “Khris is next” are asinine. He’s been here since we had complete bums on the roster & is more than likely getting his jersey retired.

If a massive failure occurs, Bud is on the chopping block followed by Lopez.

If we don't make the finals this year:

Brook should 100% be gone
Bud should be gone
Middleton I'm 50/50 on

Lol, how can you say that while not knowing how they will play in the playoffs?

I want Brook gone whether he plays well or not in the playoffs. Middleton trade would be so that we don't have 3 guys making 30m+ a year. Bud - you can argue that we should fire him now. We should not be this bad at defense. I think we need to make a change, but give him one more year to make it really far.

[msiris]

At least Jrue is very good two way player unlike Midds.

[skones]

He was considered a "playoff choker" because until his age-31 postseason (ironically how old Jrue is about to be), it was 100% true. I don't know how else to tell you that this "Kyle Lowry has always been elite!" thing is a myth. He wasn't exactly playing with bums when the Raptors were a Top-3 seed and he had just as much to do with getting swept in the playoffs in many of those years.

He had a rare career arc in that he didn't really peak as a basketball player until his early-30's, but even then, he never approached this all-time great "impact guy" level that people love to claim in hindsight (hell, Raptors have actually been worse with him on the floor vs. off in 3 of the last 4 seasons). Honestly don't know if I'd take "peak Lowry" over current Jrue, but to claim he was some tier or so above him? You're just flat out wrong on this one.

The only one even using the words "elite" and "all time impact" here is you. Nobody here is making that argument yet you feel like you need to build that straw man and argue against it anyway, and no, I'm not wrong, which is why I've laid out a pretty strong case here between the impact metrics and again, him being the best player on a pretty consistent 50+ win ball club during 6 out of 7 seasons. Your case which boils down to, "No he isn't!" it's pretty weak.

Anyway, here are some comments you've made on Jrue Holiday. Interesting how when he suddenly plays on your team, he becomes this "all time great player with elite impact" but Lowry is a CHOKER!!!! (See? I can build straw men too!) Like I said, you're the one here on the revisionist history soapbox.

Jrue Holiday consistently the most overrated player and trade asset in the league. Let someone else massively overpay for him (preferably an East rival).

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1939719&p=84881421&hilit=holiday#p84881421

Holiday is still a mediocre starting PG on an albatross contract, so no thanks. If the Pels are really gonna start selling the farm then E'Twaun Moore is the guy to look at. Don't think it would take more than Jason Smith + Thon.

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1795114&p=72225166&hilit=holiday#p72225166

Gross. Jrue Holiday is on an albatross contract and he immediately hampers the ceiling of your team when he's taking up nearly 30% of your cap room. I want no part of this as a Bucks fan.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1806463&p=72925789&hilit=holiday#p72925789

Jrue Holiday a Top-15 player in the league? Lol, yeah, I'm out.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1881078&p=78079263&hilit=holiday#p78079263

[giannis and 1]

Of course we had to try and extend Jrue, given our situation —— given that we had mortgaged our future and knowing that if Jrue left, we would be sunk. The amount of money we paid to extend Jrue is also fully fair I think.

Where I may differ from some is the assertion that if we don’t make it to the finals this year we should fire Bud or trade Brook or trade Khris or maybe all of them.

The word finals has also been differently used. Is it the nba finals or ec finals? I think the chances of going to the nva finals, are very low for us. Going to the ecf is not almost guaranteed by any chance.

The East has grown so much stronger in recent years that today it is v hard for us to go to the ec finals let alone the nba finals.

We have 1 super star, 1 recent all star and 1 previous all star. The Nets have 3 super stars. The 76 ers and Celtics are both very strong teams. We just may be able to go to the ecf but very unlikely to be able to go to the nba f.

Jrue is an excellent player but is not as good as Harden; the amount of good players and first round picks given up for both were about similar. If we had Harden instead we should probably think of trading Khris or firing Bud if we did not make it to the nba f. But thinking of blowing up our team in this manner seems to be built on unexpectedly high expectations for us at this point, in my opinion.

Imo we should be happy with our big 3 and strive to be the best we can be without thinking of making radical changes if we don’t make the finals, certainly the nba f and probably the ecf too.

How is that blowing up our team though? Getting rid of Brook and changing coaches would be to make us better.

Trading Middleton would be for more flexibility and to get younger. In 3 years, I don't want this to be a team that has Giannis and nothing else.

[giannis and 1]

He was considered a "playoff choker" because until his age-31 postseason (ironically how old Jrue is about to be), it was 100% true. I don't know how else to tell you that this "Kyle Lowry has always been elite!" thing is a myth. He wasn't exactly playing with bums when the Raptors were a Top-3 seed and he had just as much to do with getting swept in the playoffs in many of those years.

He had a rare career arc in that he didn't really peak as a basketball player until his early-30's, but even then, he never approached this all-time great "impact guy" level that people love to claim in hindsight (hell, Raptors have actually been worse with him on the floor vs. off in 3 of the last 4 seasons). Honestly don't know if I'd take "peak Lowry" over current Jrue, but to claim he was some tier or so above him? You're just flat out wrong on this one.

The only one even using the words "elite" and "all time impact" here is you. Nobody here is making that argument yet you feel like you need to build that straw man and argue against it anyway, and no, I'm not wrong, which is why I've laid out a pretty strong case here between the impact metrics and again, him being the best player on a pretty consistent 50+ win ball club during 6 out of 7 seasons. Your case which boils down to, "No he isn't!" it's pretty weak.

Anyway, here are some comments you've made on Jrue Holiday. Interesting how when he suddenly plays on your team, he becomes this "all time great player with elite impact" but Lowry is a CHOKER!!!! (See? I can build straw men too!) Like I said, you're the one here on the revisionist history soapbox.

Jrue Holiday consistently the most overrated player and trade asset in the league. Let someone else massively overpay for him (preferably an East rival).

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1939719&p=84881421&hilit=holiday#p84881421

Holiday is still a mediocre starting PG on an albatross contract, so no thanks. If the Pels are really gonna start selling the farm then E'Twaun Moore is the guy to look at. Don't think it would take more than Jason Smith + Thon.

viewtopic.php?f=21&t=1795114&p=72225166&hilit=holiday#p72225166

Gross. Jrue Holiday is on an albatross contract and he immediately hampers the ceiling of your team when he's taking up nearly 30% of your cap room. I want no part of this as a Bucks fan.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1806463&p=72925789&hilit=holiday#p72925789

Jrue Holiday a Top-15 player in the league? Lol, yeah, I'm out.

viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1881078&p=78079263&hilit=holiday#p78079263

We are all Bucks fans, we all cheer for the same team.

[humanrefutation]

I wonder if you polled NBA players, where'd they rank Jrue versus Lowry. They all seem to say very good things about Jrue.

[ShootingtheJ]

Lowry is a really good player, but he has not been consistently good and has had stretches where he has been really bad. They are similar in that both players can't be sped up and control a game when given a chance (hint Bud).

But if I have to have someone late in the game control the game and defend one of the opposition's best players, it's Holiday every day.

Most fans (and it's definitely true on this board) never understand that defense is 50% of the game. Jrue is one of the best. Great signing. I'm more than won over.

And the rumor that Horst would sign Austin Rivers is hopefully dead. I can't think of two more opposite type players in Rivers and Holiday. One is great. One is really bad.

I really believe the Rivers thing was a smokescreen to try to get teams to believe they didn't need to claim Teague on waivers.

[skones]

I wonder if you polled NBA players, where'd they rank Jrue versus Lowry. They all seem to say very good things about Jrue.

Jrue probably has a shot at edging him out now, but we're also talking about a 35 year old Lowry. I wouldn't be shocked if it went either way this year. If you asked them about the last 4 or 6 years? I don't think it's all that close. You've got Curry, Lillard, Paul, Westbrook, and then you're looking at Lowry/Irving.

[FlagsFlyForever]

Bud - you can argue that we should fire him now. We should not be this bad at defense.

How good do you think our defense should be? We have the 8th ranked defense in the league currently after having the #1 defense under Bud each of the previous two seasons.

[Ron Swanson]

I've literally said that I've always thought Holiday was overrated, he's never been close to a Top-15 player in the league, am not exactly comfortable paying him $30+ million per year, and I would have said all that exact same **** about Kyle Lowry. That doesn't mean I'm gonna scoff at retaining him when the alternative is losing him in free agency for nothing.

But I guess you thought that digging up those old posts was some "gotcha" moment, huh?