wolfen wrote:Should be fun when Dlo does return, and it will probably make the offense more multi-tooled. BUT, last night's game, crunchtime, got me thinking. Ant did a great job at the end, getting into the teeth of the defense, collapsing it. He found Beas for a wide open 3, and that was perfectly executed. Beas will hit a good look like that more times than not. On top of that, if he's got a hand in his face, he's got such a quick and high release that it would still be a good look in that situation. The other thing that Beas does well in those situations is that if I guy is closing out hard, he makes a quick decision, he can pump and go quickly for an open pull-up, or just attack into the lane to keep the defense scrambling. So 2 great things - quick/high release, able to quickly attack a closeout and continue to make the defense scramble. Love it.
You would think that having Dlo on the floor in crunch time and having both he and Beas as catch and shoot guys would be even more effective, but I REALLY worry about Dlo in the catch and shoot in crunch time when defenses are playing tough. If he's wide open in that situation, then yes, that would be a great shot, but more times than not, you're not THAT wide open. So the more likely scenario is Dlo catching the pass from Ant with a defender closing out at him, and in those situations, Dlo struggles. He doesn't have the quickest release, he doesn't make a quick decision when a guy closes out on him hard, he stops the ball and tries to do his one on one thing, which kills the advantage you've just created by making the defense scramble.
So what is the point here. The point is that when it's winning time, you have to have the right ingredients. Imagine if you would magically have Fred VanVleet on this team in that situation with Ant attacking, scoring if he can, collapsing the defense, and passing to the perimeter if he's covered. Yes, it would be nice to find a wide open Beas, but also having Van Vleet out there would be spectacular because he CAN catch and shoot quickly but he can also quickly destroy a closeout, and he won't stop the ball like Dlo. Frankly, I'd rather have Nowell out there in that situation over either Dlo or Rubio (duh) because he has shown those abilities as well. Of course, not the level of VanVleet, but you get my drift. Quick release, attack the closeout, don't stop the ball, keep the defense scrambling.
So when people on the board scoff at other people saying "we don't need a PG", Dlo is good and Rubio "organizes the offense", that's fine and all, but it's not the optimal make up for the correct ingredients at the PG position (not to mention having Dlo out there in crunch time playing defense is a killer). So yes, Dlo and Rubio both have some nice aspects to their games, but what some of us are saying is that they just aren't the right fit. Ant is going to be the initiator at the end of quarters, at the end of games, and this is where leads are built and games are won and lost. So for me, the PG position is absolutely the fulcrum position for our success going forward, possibly even moreso than the PF position.
This is why every single draft I research PG's for specific traits, and they don't even have to be starting PG's. Just think of this last draft. There were 2-3 hard-nosed PG's that had these traits that I had identified that would have been huge gets in the late first or early 2nd - Payton Pritchard and Saben Lee. We all know about Pritchard, he would be ridiculously perfect in that situation catching a pass on the perimeter for a quick shot or attacking the closeout, and he's been a decent defender. If you haven't done your Saben Lee research, he's now starting for the Pistons as a rookie. Why? Because he can defend, hit the open 3, and attack closeouts like nobody's business. Coming into the draft, he was in the 99th percentile on rim attacks as far as frequency and finishing. He's tough as hell. I didn't expect him to be able to nail the 3 at the rate he's doing it at, but he is doing it none the less.
So to bring this full circle, knowing that free agents don't come here, the draft is where you target guys like this (and teams don't just trade away these players once they have them). In this draft there are 2 PG's that I can identify that I've seen play and researched that could be these types of players (there may be more). Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler, both Baylor Bears. I'm excluding Cunningham and Suggs here because OF COURSE they would fit the bill here too, although Suggs 3 pt shot worries me a bit. But both Mitchell and Butler are good to great defenders, have quick releases on their shots, and can attack closeouts if ran off the line. Ingredients. They are important people. We've GOT to surround Ant and KAT with another player of this type, or we won't progress to the next level.
If Dlo is going to be here for the next few years then fine, let him start games, score like he does during the less intense portions of the game. That could help build leads. But at end of quarters and end of games, the type of player that he is on BOTH ends just puts the kibosh on things. I would hope Finch would have the balls to put that in place, to say Dlo, get yours during the normal flow of the game, but when teams ratchet things up, we're going with a player who can defend, make a quick hitting 3, and attack closeouts and not stop the ball from moving. It would be an ego adjustment on Dlo's end, but in the grand scheme of things, if it worked and we were able to win because of it, you would hope that he would fall in line. So in the likely circumstance that we don't keep our pick, we've GOT to make some sort of trade to get a pick in the draft in the 15-20 range so we can nab either Mitchell or Butler. And then don't try to "force things" by making a bad move to try to upgrade the PF position. I'm on board with targetting Daniel Theis as our free agent signing. He's a C/PF but provides exactly what we need - a defensive dog presence as a rotation piece.
Starters - "the most likely scenario next year"
Dlo / Beas / Ant / Jmac / KAT
Closers
Mitchell / Beas / Ant / Jmac / KAT
Key front court presence in the rotation
Theis
Frankly, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if the rest of the bench would be completely different, but I don't have super high hopes for any of them except for maybe Nowell. You would think that Rubio, Culver, Okogie, and Naz might have some fans in other teams' front offices the Knicks have picks 17 and 21, maybe they'd deal one of those. The Rockets have 18, 23, 25. Etc. etc. Then the following draft we'll have our pick back and can pick things up from there...
Good stuff wolfen. I like most all of it.
Finch somehow has to find a way to muzzle Dlo. Dlo can shoot no doubt but he can't lead the team in shots every night. Since Dlo can't drive to the basket he's really just a playground chucker. He has to defer and make others better periodically. The only guy I can live with shooting and missing is Kat. His missing won;t last long.
Dlo won't come off the bench. No way. Beasley would be my ideal 6th man.
If we're lucky enough to keep our pick I would love to see Mobley next to Towns with McD at the 3 with Dlo and Ant.
I love the MN kid Suggs but I don't know how he and Dlo co-exist.
