Game 50 : Cleveland Cavaliers (17-32) @ San Antonio Spurs (24-23) - 7:00PM

[toooskies]

Sexton is already overqualified for the microwave scorer role and none of the guys who you think of in that role were as good as Sexton is at his age offensively. Yes, he plays too much hero ball. So do a lot of young guys on struggling teams! Let's not jump to the conclusion that young guys aren't going to get better. They almost always do.

[JonFromVA]

I'm going to need to people to show their work on the bolded. The Cavs haven't played in a lot of close games, and when they have, they've rarely won, and when they have won, the game has usually been close in the sense of the Cavs surrendering a healthy lead in the finals minutes but managing to hold on.

Gladly. Two places I know to find clutch data are 82games.com and nba.com.

Such as: http://www.82games.com/2021/20CLE1.HTM#clutch

82games is a wonderful site for all sorts of +/- and on/off data, but they seem to update less frequently as the years go by; but right now their data is good through 4/5.

nba.com should give you the total "clutch minutes", but 82games indicates we've had 15 instances of "clutch time" and the Cavs have outscored their opponent 10 times. That's what the W-L and Win% indicate. It doesn't mean they actually won the game, however.

Collin's shooting details breaks down the eFG% in to shot type and we can see he has a strong mix of both jumpers and scoring at the rim. We can also see he's rarely assisted on these shots. From his AST48 of 3.9 we also know he's not looking to pass anymore or less in these situations than typical.

Similarly not much of Garland's clutch scoring is assisted either.

Fair to say, we're seeing a lot of hero ball in these situations ... and it's actually working better than what we usually see.

Which has a lot of interesting implications.

For comparison, the all-around clutch leader this season is probably Dame Lillard, and he's been involved in 25 games that qualified. He's also not being assisted very often during "clutch time".

I believe I've mentioned this already, but I'd also suggest anyone interested in stats to dig in to the Cavs home-road split data which is easily available at basketball-reference.

So looking at that link, his net on/off in crunch time is decidedly negative. Whatever he's giving you, his giving up more on the other end.

Be careful what you're looking at as all the player data is shown on one big long page.

Collin's Net48 in clutch time is +20.9 which is extremely good.

[JonFromVA]

This this this this 10000x this. He is great at what he does and thats be a microwave scorer. Microwave high volume scorers have a role to play, but that role is a 6th man ala Jordan Clarkson, Jamal Crawford, ect. Sexton just seems to bog down the offense. Even when the pass is swung to him, he hesitates because his first instinct is 'the ball is mine now score'. Its his 3rd year and even when he passes it looks forced. He has no natural passing ability.

Also, its only a matter of time before Okoro goes nuts on him. Watch the next game and watch how many times Okoro leaks up the floor after a miss and cuts to the basket and Sexton doesnt find him so Okoro just runs a lap around the baseline. This happens 2-3x per game. Keep you head up in transition for the love of.....Okoro is great at playing off-ball and cutting all over the place. This team needs more willing passers outside of Garland/Love to keep the ball moving. Ala what the offense looked like for the first month of the season.

I like Sexton, but trying to force him to be 'the' guy is not going to work longterm. He is far too limited as a basketball player and his skillset hasnt gotten better in year 3

The thing is most of the time Garland is bringing the ball up and they've been on him to push the pace and bring it up faster. So, that's now on him to see Isaac and get the ball to him. What you have to plan for is when Garland is off the floor and what's been one of our biggest holes all season? We've lacked a backup PG.

Collin doesn't need to be "the guy", but he can certainly be "a guy" and I'm just not going to stop bringing up floor spacing because it affects so many things including Collin's ability to make a quick decision when he has the ball. If we make the floor easier for him to process, he will become much more effective.

I agree with this but then he has to become better defensively. If he needs a spaced out floor with shooters to thrive, then he cannot also be the guy you have to hide defensively. If he needs a spaced out floor, then he needs to help with rebounding when one or more big men are away from the basket. If he needs a spaced out floor, then the Cavs are going to sacrifice in other areas to provide that for him. He needs to help make up the difference.

Every team in the league needs a spaced out floor with shooters to thrive. Let's get the important things right, then work on the details. lol

[jbk1234]

Gladly. Two places I know to find clutch data are 82games.com and nba.com.

Such as: http://www.82games.com/2021/20CLE1.HTM#clutch

82games is a wonderful site for all sorts of +/- and on/off data, but they seem to update less frequently as the years go by; but right now their data is good through 4/5.

nba.com should give you the total "clutch minutes", but 82games indicates we've had 15 instances of "clutch time" and the Cavs have outscored their opponent 10 times. That's what the W-L and Win% indicate. It doesn't mean they actually won the game, however.

Collin's shooting details breaks down the eFG% in to shot type and we can see he has a strong mix of both jumpers and scoring at the rim. We can also see he's rarely assisted on these shots. From his AST48 of 3.9 we also know he's not looking to pass anymore or less in these situations than typical.

Similarly not much of Garland's clutch scoring is assisted either.

Fair to say, we're seeing a lot of hero ball in these situations ... and it's actually working better than what we usually see.

Which has a lot of interesting implications.

For comparison, the all-around clutch leader this season is probably Dame Lillard, and he's been involved in 25 games that qualified. He's also not being assisted very often during "clutch time".

I believe I've mentioned this already, but I'd also suggest anyone interested in stats to dig in to the Cavs home-road split data which is easily available at basketball-reference.

So looking at that link, his net on/off in crunch time is decidedly negative. Whatever he's giving you, his giving up more on the other end.

Be careful what you're looking at as all the player data is shown on one big long page.

Collin's Net48 in clutch time is +20.9 which is extremely good.

I'm looking at the on court/off court numbers at the bottom of the page. His minute total is around 1,470. His minute total for his career is 6,290 so I'm assuming the smaller number is crunch time.

[Stillwater]

I'm sorry, but how does someone with a line of 27 ppg on 50/40/85 not improve a team period? That is extreme efficiency.
Just to give a bit of a reference, 25 ppg 50/40/85 has only happened 11 times, 3x by Larry Bird, 4x by Kevin Durant, 1x by Steph Curry, 1x Kiki Vandewaghe, and currently Jokic and Lavine this season.

Dropping it to 25 ppg on 50/38/85 splits it's happened an additional 4 times. Kevin Durant is added to the list 2 more times, and then Kyrie and Kawhi's current season's splits are added. The worst wins shares for those are still all positive with Durant's current season being the lowest at 2.7 WS followed by Lavine's current season at 4.7 WS.

when you are playing with a rookie who is not an offensive threat outside of transition dunks as is and a constantly changing front court due to injuries and trades along with a dynamic passer who is usually not taking what the defense gives him sans in games like against SAS when it comes to open looks but instead constantly looking to pass [ because thats what JBB wants] even when those passes generate more 2s than 3s he could shoot himself being open etc it comes as no surprise people are going to see Sexton sucking up usage and claiming empty stats when it's not equating to wins even though the real issue is unless DG can generate enough offense and take what the defense gives him like SAS game consistently they wont have anything more than another high usage scorer that gets pigeon holed into being a empty stat guy label. But at least DG dribbles like KI too bad he finishes like Delly smh

[JonFromVA]

So looking at that link, his net on/off in crunch time is decidedly negative. Whatever he's giving you, his giving up more on the other end.

Be careful what you're looking at as all the player data is shown on one big long page.

Collin's Net48 in clutch time is +20.9 which is extremely good.

I'm looking at the on court/off court numbers at the bottom of the page. His minute total is around 1,470. His minute total for his career is 6,290 so I'm assuming the smaller number is crunch time.

Yeah, like I said, it's one big long page with all sorts of various statistics. There's a horizontal line that delimits the end of the "Clutch Statistics" section. The On Court / Off Court stats are his over all numbers. He's played 1478 total minutes this season on the floor, and there have been 850 total minutes he's been off the floor.

You're looking for the total clutch time minutes which they don't directly expose. nba.com should? But (10W+5L)*5min should give us the largest the number could be ... or 75 minutes. His +20.9 Net48 and +27 Net Pts suggests it's actually about 62 minutes.

[jbk1234]

Be careful what you're looking at as all the player data is shown on one big long page.

Collin's Net48 in clutch time is +20.9 which is extremely good.

I'm looking at the on court/off court numbers at the bottom of the page. His minute total is around 1,470. His minute total for his career is 6,290 so I'm assuming the smaller number is crunch time.

Yeah, like I said, it's one big long page with all sorts of various statistics. There's a horizontal line that delimits the end of the "Clutch Statistics" section. The On Court / Off Court stats are his over all numbers. He's played 1478 total minutes this season on the floor, and there have been 850 total minutes he's been off the floor.

You're looking for the total clutch time minutes which they don't directly expose. nba.com should? But (10W+5L)*5min should give us the largest the number could be ... or 75 minutes. His +20.9 Net48 and +27 Net Pts suggests it's actually about 62 minutes.

So a third of the total sample is basically the two games against the Nets immediately after Harden was traded? Suffice to say, I think that's skewing the results.

[JonFromVA]

I'm sorry, but how does someone with a line of 27 ppg on 50/40/85 not improve a team period? That is extreme efficiency.
Just to give a bit of a reference, 25 ppg 50/40/85 has only happened 11 times, 3x by Larry Bird, 4x by Kevin Durant, 1x by Steph Curry, 1x Kiki Vandewaghe, and currently Jokic and Lavine this season.

Dropping it to 25 ppg on 50/38/85 splits it's happened an additional 4 times. Kevin Durant is added to the list 2 more times, and then Kyrie and Kawhi's current season's splits are added. The worst wins shares for those are still all positive with Durant's current season being the lowest at 2.7 WS followed by Lavine's current season at 4.7 WS.

when you are playing with a rookie who is not an offensive threat outside of transition dunks as is and a constantly changing front court due to injuries and trades along with a dynamic passer who is usually not taking what the defense gives him sans in games like against SAS when it comes to open looks but instead constantly looking to pass [ because thats what JBB wants] even when those passes generate more 2s than 3s he could shoot himself being open etc it comes as no surprise people are going to see Sexton sucking up usage and claiming empty stats when it's not equating to wins even though the real issue is unless DG can generate enough offense and take what the defense gives him like SAS game consistently they wont have anything more than another high usage scorer that gets pigeon holed into being a empty stat guy label. But at least DG dribbles like KI too bad he finishes like Delly smh

lol, I wish I could get you to look at stats, because when I do ... my conclusion is that Garland's scoring at the rim is much closer to Kyrie-level (that is after he started trying to avoid contact) than you think, and we need to take in to consideration that Garland is rarely assisted on those attempts.

What the numbers do indicate is he needs to cut down on those floaters outside of 3ft, and maybe, just maybe the Spurs game is an indication he's going to start cutting that out of his game and focus on layups and 3pters.

Bringing up Delly as a comparison point is 1000% hyperbole (much like using 1000%).

[JonFromVA]

I'm looking at the on court/off court numbers at the bottom of the page. His minute total is around 1,470. His minute total for his career is 6,290 so I'm assuming the smaller number is crunch time.

Yeah, like I said, it's one big long page with all sorts of various statistics. There's a horizontal line that delimits the end of the "Clutch Statistics" section. The On Court / Off Court stats are his over all numbers. He's played 1478 total minutes this season on the floor, and there have been 850 total minutes he's been off the floor.

You're looking for the total clutch time minutes which they don't directly expose. nba.com should? But (10W+5L)*5min should give us the largest the number could be ... or 75 minutes. His +20.9 Net48 and +27 Net Pts suggests it's actually about 62 minutes.

So a third of the total sample is basically the two games against the Nets immediately after Harden was traded? Suffice to say, I think that's skewing the results.

Nah, the two Nets games can't add to be any more than 10 of the ~62 minutes.

Suffice it to say that having +20.9 Net48 in clutch time is a good thing and a huge improvement over the -9.7 he put up last season. We can see with our eyes Collin is becoming a serious threat on the floor this season, and opponents have had to adapt to that.

[Stillwater]

I'm sorry, but how does someone with a line of 27 ppg on 50/40/85 not improve a team period? That is extreme efficiency.
Just to give a bit of a reference, 25 ppg 50/40/85 has only happened 11 times, 3x by Larry Bird, 4x by Kevin Durant, 1x by Steph Curry, 1x Kiki Vandewaghe, and currently Jokic and Lavine this season.

Dropping it to 25 ppg on 50/38/85 splits it's happened an additional 4 times. Kevin Durant is added to the list 2 more times, and then Kyrie and Kawhi's current season's splits are added. The worst wins shares for those are still all positive with Durant's current season being the lowest at 2.7 WS followed by Lavine's current season at 4.7 WS.

when you are playing with a rookie who is not an offensive threat outside of transition dunks as is and a constantly changing front court due to injuries and trades along with a dynamic passer who is usually not taking what the defense gives him sans in games like against SAS when it comes to open looks but instead constantly looking to pass [ because thats what JBB wants] even when those passes generate more 2s than 3s he could shoot himself being open etc it comes as no surprise people are going to see Sexton sucking up usage and claiming empty stats when it's not equating to wins even though the real issue is unless DG can generate enough offense and take what the defense gives him like SAS game consistently they wont have anything more than another high usage scorer that gets pigeon holed into being a empty stat guy label. But at least DG dribbles like KI too bad he finishes like Delly smh

lol, I wish I could get you to look at stats, because when I do ... my conclusion is that Garland's scoring at the rim is much closer to Kyrie-level (that is after he started trying to avoid contact) than you think, and we need to take in to consideration that Garland is rarely assisted on those attempts.

What the numbers do indicate is he needs to cut down on those floaters outside of 3ft, and maybe, just maybe the Spurs game is an indication he's going to start cutting that out of his game and focus on layups and 3pters.

Bringing up Delly as a comparison point is 1000% hyperbole (much like using 1000%).

he shoots floaters because as a rule is not able to finish above the rim same as the unathletic Delly.
athletic limitations require masterful glass english or maybe he can just get cheap fouls and earn it at
the stripe... he needs to take and make those 3s with defenders not in his face every time they are not in his face for the impact of his passing to be consistent. Does that and he can keep his job.

[jbk1234]

Yeah, like I said, it's one big long page with all sorts of various statistics. There's a horizontal line that delimits the end of the "Clutch Statistics" section. The On Court / Off Court stats are his over all numbers. He's played 1478 total minutes this season on the floor, and there have been 850 total minutes he's been off the floor.

You're looking for the total clutch time minutes which they don't directly expose. nba.com should? But (10W+5L)*5min should give us the largest the number could be ... or 75 minutes. His +20.9 Net48 and +27 Net Pts suggests it's actually about 62 minutes.

So a third of the total sample is basically the two games against the Nets immediately after Harden was traded? Suffice to say, I think that's skewing the results.

Nah, the two Nets games can't add to be any more than 10 of the ~62 minutes.

Suffice it to say that having +20.9 Net48 in clutch time is a good thing and a huge improvement over the -9.7 he put up last season. We can see with our eyes Collin is becoming a serious threat on the floor this season, and opponents have had to adapt to that.

4th quarter "or overtime." That one Nets game alone was double overtime.

[JonFromVA]

when you are playing with a rookie who is not an offensive threat outside of transition dunks as is and a constantly changing front court due to injuries and trades along with a dynamic passer who is usually not taking what the defense gives him sans in games like against SAS when it comes to open looks but instead constantly looking to pass [ because thats what JBB wants] even when those passes generate more 2s than 3s he could shoot himself being open etc it comes as no surprise people are going to see Sexton sucking up usage and claiming empty stats when it's not equating to wins even though the real issue is unless DG can generate enough offense and take what the defense gives him like SAS game consistently they wont have anything more than another high usage scorer that gets pigeon holed into being a empty stat guy label. But at least DG dribbles like KI too bad he finishes like Delly smh

lol, I wish I could get you to look at stats, because when I do ... my conclusion is that Garland's scoring at the rim is much closer to Kyrie-level (that is after he started trying to avoid contact) than you think, and we need to take in to consideration that Garland is rarely assisted on those attempts.

What the numbers do indicate is he needs to cut down on those floaters outside of 3ft, and maybe, just maybe the Spurs game is an indication he's going to start cutting that out of his game and focus on layups and 3pters.

Bringing up Delly as a comparison point is 1000% hyperbole (much like using 1000%).

he shoots floaters because as a rule is not able to finish above the rim same as the unathletic Delly.
athletic limitations require masterful glass english or maybe he can just get cheap fouls and earn it at
the stripe... he needs to take and make those 3s with defenders not in his face every time they are not in his face for the impact of his passing to be consistent. Does that and he can keep his job.

In the Spurs games he was manipulating the rim protector so he could just layup the ball. Kyrie-like circus shots are not necessary for a player and/or a team that knows how to create open lanes.

[JonFromVA]

So a third of the total sample is basically the two games against the Nets immediately after Harden was traded? Suffice to say, I think that's skewing the results.

Nah, the two Nets games can't add to be any more than 10 of the ~62 minutes.

Suffice it to say that having +20.9 Net48 in clutch time is a good thing and a huge improvement over the -9.7 he put up last season. We can see with our eyes Collin is becoming a serious threat on the floor this season, and opponents have had to adapt to that.

4th quarter "or overtime." That one Nets game alone was double overtime.

Should we want to exclude those games for some reason? They were two of the most impressive wins of the season. Period.

[jbk1234]

Nah, the two Nets games can't add to be any more than 10 of the ~62 minutes.

Suffice it to say that having +20.9 Net48 in clutch time is a good thing and a huge improvement over the -9.7 he put up last season. We can see with our eyes Collin is becoming a serious threat on the floor this season, and opponents have had to adapt to that.

4th quarter "or overtime." That one Nets game alone was double overtime.

Should we want to exclude those games for some reason? They were two of the most impressive wins of the season. Period.

The issue is whether those performances are representative of his ability to close out games via a larger sample size. Can they be duplicated? I'm suggesting that, at a minimum, that sample size is too small to know. Dion Waiters had some impressive close outs as well.

[JonFromVA]

4th quarter "or overtime." That one Nets game alone was double overtime.

Should we want to exclude those games for some reason? They were two of the most impressive wins of the season. Period.

The issue is whether those performances are representative of his ability to close out games via a larger sample size. Can they be duplicated? I'm suggesting that, at a minimum, that sample size is too small to know. Dion Waiters had some impressive close outs as well.

You seem to be looking for proof/projection, whereas I'm happy to examine the evidence of what has already happened.

Here's Waiters best clutch season when he was a Cav:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13CLE3.HTM#clutch

Here's Waiters clutch numbers during his best season of his career:

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIA6.HTM#clutch

Do you see any similarity to the numbers that Collin is putting up this year?

[jbk1234]

Should we want to exclude those games for some reason? They were two of the most impressive wins of the season. Period.

The issue is whether those performances are representative of his ability to close out games via a larger sample size. Can they be duplicated? I'm suggesting that, at a minimum, that sample size is too small to know. Dion Waiters had some impressive close outs as well.

You seem to be looking for proof/projection, whereas I'm happy to examine the evidence of what has already happened.

Here's Waiters best clutch season when he was a Cav:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13CLE3.HTM#clutch

Here's Waiters clutch numbers during his best season of his career:

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIA6.HTM#clutch

Do you see any similarity to the numbers that Collin is putting up this year?

I'm looking for results that can be duplicated. Sexton was 5 for 7 from three in the final minute and both overtimes in that game. If he can do that again, he should every game. He can have all the shots.

But Sexton shooting from outside like that in crunch time isn't something that happened before or since. He hasn't even really tried. I'm inclined to think that it was a combination of being guarded by Irving and getting hot at just the right time.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J327A using RealGM mobile app

[JonFromVA]

The issue is whether those performances are representative of his ability to close out games via a larger sample size. Can they be duplicated? I'm suggesting that, at a minimum, that sample size is too small to know. Dion Waiters had some impressive close outs as well.

You seem to be looking for proof/projection, whereas I'm happy to examine the evidence of what has already happened.

Here's Waiters best clutch season when he was a Cav:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13CLE3.HTM#clutch

Here's Waiters clutch numbers during his best season of his career:

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIA6.HTM#clutch

Do you see any similarity to the numbers that Collin is putting up this year?

I'm looking for results that can be duplicated. Sexton was 5 for 7 from three in the final minute and both overtimes in that game. If he can do that again, he should every game. He can have all the shots.

But Sexton shooting from outside like that in crunch time isn't something that happened before or since. He hasn't even really tried. I'm inclined to think that it was a combination of being guarded by Irving and getting hot at just the right time.

Being guarded by Irving and getting hot at the right time happens to a lot of players, and they still don't put up clutch time numbers like that. I'm used to watching these stats, so, it really stands out to me. That Collin's clutch time stats actually include some good teams actually makes the data look better than if it strictly consisted of other cellar dwellers at or below our level.

You don't see me starting a thread on the GB claiming Collin Sexton is one of the best clutch players in the league, do you? Of course context matters and this kind of stuff goes in to the category of flashing star potential for a young player on a bad team.

[jbk1234]

You seem to be looking for proof/projection, whereas I'm happy to examine the evidence of what has already happened.

Here's Waiters best clutch season when he was a Cav:

http://www.82games.com/1314/13CLE3.HTM#clutch

Here's Waiters clutch numbers during his best season of his career:

http://www.82games.com/1617/16MIA6.HTM#clutch

Do you see any similarity to the numbers that Collin is putting up this year?

I'm looking for results that can be duplicated. Sexton was 5 for 7 from three in the final minute and both overtimes in that game. If he can do that again, he should every game. He can have all the shots.

But Sexton shooting from outside like that in crunch time isn't something that happened before or since. He hasn't even really tried. I'm inclined to think that it was a combination of being guarded by Irving and getting hot at just the right time.

Being guarded by Irving and getting hot at the right time happens to a lot of players, and they still don't put up clutch time numbers like that. I'm used to watching these stats, so, it really stands out to me. That Collin's clutch time stats actually include some good teams actually makes the data look better than if it strictly consisted of other cellar dwellers at or below our level.

You don't see me starting a thread on the GB claiming Collin Sexton is one of the best clutch players in the league, do you? Of course context matters and this kind of stuff goes in to the category of flashing star potential for a young player on a bad team.

Let me put it this way, I'd be very interested in what the data looks like for the other 40 minutes, or even the prior two years.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J327A using RealGM mobile app

[toooskies]

I'm looking for results that can be duplicated. Sexton was 5 for 7 from three in the final minute and both overtimes in that game. If he can do that again, he should every game. He can have all the shots.

But Sexton shooting from outside like that in crunch time isn't something that happened before or since. He hasn't even really tried. I'm inclined to think that it was a combination of being guarded by Irving and getting hot at just the right time.

Being guarded by Irving and getting hot at the right time happens to a lot of players, and they still don't put up clutch time numbers like that. I'm used to watching these stats, so, it really stands out to me. That Collin's clutch time stats actually include some good teams actually makes the data look better than if it strictly consisted of other cellar dwellers at or below our level.

You don't see me starting a thread on the GB claiming Collin Sexton is one of the best clutch players in the league, do you? Of course context matters and this kind of stuff goes in to the category of flashing star potential for a young player on a bad team.

Let me put it this way, I'd be very interested in what the data looks like for the other 40 minutes, or even the prior two years.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-J327A using RealGM mobile app

Regardless of what it says, 40 minutes is not predictive of anything. 80 isn't much better.

[JonFromVA]

I'm looking for results that can be duplicated. Sexton was 5 for 7 from three in the final minute and both overtimes in that game. If he can do that again, he should every game. He can have all the shots.

But Sexton shooting from outside like that in crunch time isn't something that happened before or since. He hasn't even really tried. I'm inclined to think that it was a combination of being guarded by Irving and getting hot at just the right time.

Being guarded by Irving and getting hot at the right time happens to a lot of players, and they still don't put up clutch time numbers like that. I'm used to watching these stats, so, it really stands out to me. That Collin's clutch time stats actually include some good teams actually makes the data look better than if it strictly consisted of other cellar dwellers at or below our level.

You don't see me starting a thread on the GB claiming Collin Sexton is one of the best clutch players in the league, do you? Of course context matters and this kind of stuff goes in to the category of flashing star potential for a young player on a bad team.

Let me put it this way, I'd be very interested in what the data looks like for the other 40 minutes, or even the prior two years.

You'd have to do some digging to get the other 40 minutes, maybe nba.com could filter that out for you, or worst case you go through the game logs (yuck).

The previous two years, otoh, are easy peasy. Just go to the 82games home page, and click the prior seasons link, find the year you want, click the team, click the player, click clutch time.

spoiler alert: they are much worse