thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
correct.
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thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
Nyce_1 wrote:Rockets may pulls this out!
Nyce_1 wrote:thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
correct.
That depends on what you want to obtain and how much anxiety your heart can handle on lotto night:RookieStar wrote:Nyce_1 wrote:thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
correct.
So.. what is the best outcome for us? 10th spot but lose the play-in? or just outright missing the playoffins in the 11th spot? They are neck and neck with other play in teams right?
Nyce_1 wrote:That depends on what you want to obtain and how much anxiety your heart can handle on lotto night:RookieStar wrote:Nyce_1 wrote:correct.
So.. what is the best outcome for us? 10th spot but lose the play-in? or just outright missing the playoffins in the 11th spot? They are neck and neck with other play in teams right?
- guaranteed 2nd pick? Bulls make playoffs so we get 15th pick.
- odds for best 2 picks? Bulls crater to 5th best odds and only we jump, getting #1 & #5; then pray.
- a good 2nd pick to utilize in a trade up deal if our pick isn't where we hope? Bulls miss playoffs then pray.
Def Swami wrote:I go big or go home. I'm pulling for the Bulls to be bad, but not bottom 4 bad.
thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
drsd wrote:thelead wrote:How does the play-in tournament affect the bulls pick?
Let's say they finish 10th in the east but make the playoffs by winning the play-in, does that mean they no longer get a lotto pick?
Below is accurate as of 8 April (no stats have changed in the last week and I will update the numbers when they shift)
With the Bulls win, their draft pick is:
The Bulls sit as the 9th worst team.
Also as the 10-seed in the East, if the Bulls were to win two play-in games, the Magic would get the 15th pick in the draft. If they were not two win those two games, the pick would be conveyed at a 79.73% chance (that is, there is a 20.27% chance the pick would not convey).
Right now, the Bulls would first play the Pacers then the loser of the Knicks and the Celts. If we assume the Bulls has a 45% chance to win either game, then winning both is at a 20.25% chance.
Taken together, I thus estimate that currently the Bulls pick would convey at a 20.25% + 63.58% = 83.83% . And that would either be at the #15-selection or the #9-selection.
(( 79.75% is the probability the Bulls pick is not the 15th pick - i.e. the Bulls do not make the playoffs - and 79.73% is the odds the Bulls pick does not go top-4 if they fail to make the playoffs = 63.58% ))
I agree. Maybe someone like Moody or Barnes drops to the 10-12 range.thelead wrote:Def Swami wrote:I go big or go home. I'm pulling for the Bulls to be bad, but not bottom 4 bad.
I’m the opposite. I don’t see sure-fire talent outside of the top 5 so I would rather not lose the pick. I would prefer they miss the playoffs and we land a 10-12 pick. There’s no need to worry too much though as they’re not going to be in the bottom ~8 unless Vuc or LaVine goes goes down.
55.2% we'd get at top 5 pick with the 4th worst record.drsd wrote:With the loss to the Wizards:
Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than #5 Washington.
Orlando is now 2 games better than #3 Detroit.
The Magic is most likely to finish as the 4th worst team meaning the most probable draft pick is #6 at 25.74%. The odds to go top-4 would collectively be 48.08%. (( And one of the top-3 at 36.62%, and top-2 at 24.73%. ))
basketballRob wrote:55.2% we'd get at top 5 pick with the 4th worst record.drsd wrote:With the loss to the Wizards:
Orlando is now 1 1/2 games worse than #5 Washington.
Orlando is now 2 games better than #3 Detroit.
The Magic is most likely to finish as the 4th worst team meaning the most probable draft pick is #6 at 25.74%. The odds to go top-4 would collectively be 48.08%. (( And one of the top-3 at 36.62%, and top-2 at 24.73%. ))