TheRinger's NBA Odds Machine

Badonkadonk · Post #1 » by **Badonkadonk** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 5:49 pm

I found this more interesting than a lot of the other projections I've seen for both playoff and lottery odds, as it's simulation based (though I do wish they shared more on the methodology).

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

Raps tied for 8th from the bottom is what I've been expecting, so it passes my gut-test anyway (have been commenting on 7th-10th picks in threads).

Other interesting highlights:
- 20% chance at top 5 pick
- 38% play-in odds
- Heat > Knicks > Pacers > Bulls most likely 7th - 10th seedings

Inevitable · Post #2 » by **Inevitable** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 5:58 pm

We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically

agkagk · Post #3 » by **agkagk** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:00 pm

Forget Khem birch and forget the wizards

We need to play baynes 30 minutes a night.

talosinc · Post #4 » by **talosinc** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:03 pm

agkagk wrote:Forget Khem birch and forget the wizards

We need to play baynes 30 minutes a night.

At the point guard spot.

Coco Costanza · Post #5 » by **Coco Costanza** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:06 pm

Inevitable wrote:We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically

A run seems unlikely, just looking at their next five games.

Warriors
Suns
jazz
Kings
Pelicans

And1Skip · Post #6 » by **And1Skip** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:07 pm

Badonkadonk wrote:I found this more interesting than a lot of the other projections I've seen for both playoff and lottery odds, as it's simulation based (though I do wish they shared more on the methodology).

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

Raps tied for 8th from the bottom is what I've been expecting, so it passes my gut-test anyway (have been commenting on 7th-10th picks in threads).

Other interesting highlights:
- 20% chance at top 5 pick
- 38% play-in odds
- Heat > Knicks > Pacers > Bulls most likely 7th - 10th seedings

I don't think their lottery odds are accurate. The new rules starting from 2019 draft is that teams outside of the Top5 have a chance of dropping into the Top4. Raptors with the 8th worse record actually have a 29% chance at a top4 pick. See http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Bruin · Post #7 » by **Bruin** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:09 pm

Coco Costanza wrote:
Inevitable wrote:We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically

A run seems unlikely, just looking at their next five games.

Warriors
Suns
jazz
Kings
Pelicans

Warriors, Kings, Pelicans are all winnable games now that they have Beal and Rui back

And that’s not to mention that the next 5 after that is

Detroit
Okc
Gsw
Okc
Cavs

JJ From Deep · Post #8 » by **JJ From Deep** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:10 pm

talosinc wrote:
agkagk wrote:Forget Khem birch and forget the wizards

We need to play baynes 30 minutes a night.

At the point guard spot.

At all 5 spots. Simultaneously.

Coco Costanza · Post #9 » by **Coco Costanza** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:10 pm

PrinceAli wrote:
Coco Costanza wrote:
Inevitable wrote:We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically

A run seems unlikely, just looking at their next five games.

Warriors
Suns
jazz
Kings
Pelicans

Warriors, Kings, Pelicans are all winnable games now that they have Beal and Rui back

I don't know, I think Warriors win that one. You just never know with this Wizards team.

Bruin · Post #10 » by **Bruin** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:12 pm

Coco Costanza wrote:
PrinceAli wrote:
Coco Costanza wrote:
A run seems unlikely, just looking at their next five games.

Warriors
Suns
jazz
Kings
Pelicans

Warriors, Kings, Pelicans are all winnable games now that they have Beal and Rui back

I don't know, I think Warriors win that one. You just never know with this Wizards team.

Next 5 after that is against

Detroit
Okc
Gsw
Okc
Cavs

Several winnable games in the next 10

agkagk · Post #11 » by **agkagk** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:13 pm

JJ From Deep wrote:
talosinc wrote:
agkagk wrote:Forget Khem birch and forget the wizards

We need to play baynes 30 minutes a night.

At the point guard spot.

At all 5 spots. Simultaneously.

We need more cowbell!!

Someone make me a meme -- just a giant cowbell where baynes head ought to be.

xAIRNESSx · Post #12 » by **xAIRNESSx** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:21 pm

Been a long time since we’ve had to worry about ping pong balls.

PhilBlackson · Post #13 » by **PhilBlackson** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:22 pm

I don't even wanna joke about Coin Toss 2.0...

Wish this team would learn from past mistakes so we stop drafting 8-9 on our down years and get closer to that 4-6th. Always seems to be a player a notch above that goes in that range....ie/ Dame instead of Ross, Steph instead of Derozan, Murray instead of Poeltl. The margin can be that thin and for what?! Sandbagging some meaningless moral Ws actual Ls....

Let's not do this again...let's take advantage of just one weird, wonky Tampa Bay Tank.

Bruin · Post #14 » by **Bruin** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:24 pm

PhilBlackson wrote:I don't even wanna joke about Coin Toss 2.0...

Wish this team would learn from past mistakes so we stop drafting 8-9 on our down years and get closer to that 4-6th. Always seems to be a player a notch above that goes in that range....ie/ Dame instead of Ross, Steph instead of Derozan, Murray instead of Poeltl. The margin can be that thin and for what?! Sandbagging some meaningless moral Ws actual Ls....

Let's not do this again...let's take advantage of just one weird, wonky Tampa Bay Tank.

100% agree but Poeltl over Murray wasn’t our fault. That was the knicks pick

Parataxis · Post #15 » by **Parataxis** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:25 pm

PhilBlackson wrote:I don't even wanna joke about Coin Toss 2.0...

Wish this team would learn from past mistakes so we stop drafting 8-9 on our down years and get closer to that 4-6th. Always seems to be a player a notch above that goes in that range....ie/ Dame instead of Ross, Steph instead of Derozan, Murray instead of Poeltl. The margin can be that thin and for what?! Sandbagging some meaningless moral Ws actual Ls....

Let's not do this again...let's take advantage of just one weird, wonky Tampa Bay Tank.

As much as I'd love to see us get a higher pick, the worst part about the pre-playoff years was watching fans complain about wins. It made this board unreadable.

Psubs · Post #16 » by **Psubs** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:25 pm

talosinc wrote:
agkagk wrote:Forget Khem birch and forget the wizards

We need to play baynes 30 minutes a night.

At the point guard spot.

He's a decent passer. He should be at the SG spot chucking away!

Badonkadonk · Post #17 » by **Badonkadonk** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:25 pm

Inevitable wrote:We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically

We do, but if you've run sims, you know how unlikely something like that is for a team with their roster and quality.

The other thing you notice when running sims is that all the things you're hoping for the Raps are playing out for every team that also wants to tank, in all kinds of permutations. The reality is that the Raps are MUCH closer to "accidentally" slipping into a play-in than they are of moving into the bottom 5.

Basically, the stars have to really align to move up the lottery significantly.

And1Skip · Post #18 » by **And1Skip** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:33 pm

You could also run into the scenario that happened in 2019 (first year of new Lottery odds). The 2,3,4,5,6th worse teams ended up with the 5,6,7,8,9th picks on the draft. Though highly unlikely that happens 2 times in three years.

DelAbbot · Post #19 » by **DelAbbot** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:35 pm

Coco Costanza wrote:
Inevitable wrote:We need the Wizards to make a run, those top 5 odds improve dramatically

A run seems unlikely, just looking at their next five games.

Warriors
Suns
jazz
Kings
Pelicans

That's why the GTJ dagger hurts so much. Damn!

DelAbbot · Post #20 » by **DelAbbot** » Thu Apr 8, 2021 6:37 pm

PhilBlackson wrote:I don't even wanna joke about Coin Toss 2.0...

Wish this team would learn from past mistakes so we stop drafting 8-9 on our down years and get closer to that 4-6th. Always seems to be a player a notch above that goes in that range....ie/ Dame instead of Ross, Steph instead of Derozan, Murray instead of Poeltl. The margin can be that thin and for what?! Sandbagging some meaningless moral Ws actual Ls....

Let's not do this again...let's take advantage of just one weird, wonky Tampa Bay Tank.

Don't ignore the feelings of those fan who just want to win some games with our injury-riddled team! Feelings! Play-in!