2021 Draft thread. Woo! 15th pick here we come! Hoo. Ray.

[NatP4]

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[Shoe]

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Is this supposed to be bad film on Kuminga. He drives left like 6 times which is more than MKG and Stan Johnson did combined in college. He gets doubled on the baseline and hits the corner shooter. 4 steals both stripping the ball and jumping the passing lane. Rebounds and advances the ball.

An explosive first step + left hand is an incredible foundation to build off of.

[Illuminaire]

I don't think it's wise to confidently predict the trajectory of a player's shooting career based on 48 free throw attempts as an 18-year-old.

The sample size with Kuminga is just too small to draw many conclusions from the stats. You have to look at what he is physically capable of doing, coupled with his work ethic and coachability.

You are correct, we can't draw confident predictions. Which is why I'm surprised by anyone who says he's going to become a great shooter. In a limited sample size, he was terrible.

Could he get better? Sure. Will he? That's blind faith.

His form is not great. It kind of looks like it is, but the details are off. I spent 20 minutes this morning watching video of him to get a better idea of why his shots don't go in, and I think a lot of it is in how he positions his elbow. It flares out just a couple of inches, and that will make his release point inconsistent. He could fix that, but most players who have to fix mechanics take years to do so.

So there. I've given statistical backup and film backup for my position on Kuminga's likely shooting capability in the NBA. I respect that there is a different position people are taking, but it sure would be nice if anyone backed it up with something more substantial than "he's young and an athlete." That's EG talk.

[Illuminaire]

Is this supposed to be bad film on Kuminga. He drives left like 6 times which is more than MKG and Stan Johnson did combined in college. He gets doubled on the baseline and hits the corner shooter. 4 steals both stripping the ball and jumping the passing lane. Rebounds and advances the ball.

An explosive first step + left hand is an incredible foundation to build off of.

I'd say it's supposed to be fair tape. He does a lot of things well, and he looks like he could be a great basketball player. He also lacks in several important areas. He's a flawed prospect with enough upside to make people eager for what he might be able to become. We see those every year, and some of them do reach their potential.

I think it's very fair to point out his strengths. I hope you are also noting the areas of concern as well, though - such as how far off target his misses were.

[nate33]

I don't think it's wise to confidently predict the trajectory of a player's shooting career based on 48 free throw attempts as an 18-year-old.

The sample size with Kuminga is just too small to draw many conclusions from the stats. You have to look at what he is physically capable of doing, coupled with his work ethic and coachability.

You are correct, we can't draw confident predictions. Which is why I'm surprised by anyone who says he's going to become a great shooter. In a limited sample size, he was terrible.

Who said he would become a great shooter?

I said it wouldn't surprise me if he became a serviceable shooter in a short period of time. I say that because the shots he'll get in the NBA as a 4th option scorer will be catch-and-shoot 3's in rhythm, and also because shooting is a skill that tends to improve pretty rapidly early on because professional basketball players have the infrastructure, time, and financial incentives to work on it.

[NatP4]

That particular mock draft that sparked this entire discussion also has Ziaire Williams and Keon Johnson in the top 10 above Franz Wagner. Blows my mind.

Also, Cam Thomas at 15???

[NatP4]

Is this supposed to be bad film on Kuminga. He drives left like 6 times which is more than MKG and Stan Johnson did combined in college. He gets doubled on the baseline and hits the corner shooter. 4 steals both stripping the ball and jumping the passing lane. Rebounds and advances the ball.

An explosive first step + left hand is an incredible foundation to build off of.

I'd say it's supposed to be fair tape. He does a lot of things well, and he looks like he could be a great basketball player. He also lacks in several important areas. He's a flawed prospect with enough upside to make people eager for what he might be able to become. We see those every year, and some of them do reach their potential.

I think it's very fair to point out his strengths. I hope you are also noting the areas of concern as well, though - such as how far off target his misses were.

I guess we’ll all have to agree to disagree, but I see a journeyman backup wing that never really develops into a perimeter threat and doesn’t possess the basketball IQ /feel for the game necessary to truly be a lockdown defender.

He’s not all that different from a Kelly Oubre type. The question is: will he reduce himself to a low usage 3&D wing that runs the floor and rebounds, or will he continue to try and be Paul George, handling the ball in pick and rolls and attempting to score in isolation?

Franz Wagner is better at literally everything.

[NatP4]

This one has Keon Johnson at 6 and his teammate, Jaden Springer, going 22nd:

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/04/08/nba-mock-draft-2021-post-march-madness

[DCZards]

CBS Sports just came out with its latest mock draft. The top 5 remains pretty much the same. The guy making the biggest jump by far is Davion Mitchell, who they now have #6...going to the Wizards.

Some of the players we've been discussing here are bunched up as follows: Cam Thomas (#14); Wagner (#15); Duarte (#16); Dosunmu (#17).

Here's the link: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2021-nba-mock-draft-3-0-cade-cunningham-goes-no-1-to-houston-rockets-davion-mitchell-taken-in-top-10/

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Speaking of mkg I'm the type of person that would pick him up right now. He got drafted before Bradley Beal and that's all I need to know

Yes.

He did not have much of an opportunity to shoot standstill 3's in his early career because he was always the dominate shot creator on the floor. But I think most young guys whose shots aren't clearly broken can practice catch-and-shoot and improve rapidly. I'm not saying he'll be a 41% 3-point shooter, but being a 33% shooter his first year and a 36% shooter his 2nd year wouldn't surprise me at all.

I would be. He had plenty of opportunities to hit standstill 2's at the free throw line, with no defenders, hit only 62% of them. That's terrible.

What is your basis for faith in Kuminga's nascent shooting ability? What about him makes you think he will buck the statistical trend of poor FT shooters being poor overall shooters at the NBA level?

Jaylen Brown at Cal: 65% FT

Zach Lavine at UCLA: 69% FT

G League bubble was only 13 games. Kumingas fluidity and left hand should end the MKG and Stanley Johnson comparisons.

Sent from my SM-T500 using RealGM mobile app

[Illuminaire]

Who said he would become a great shooter?

I said it wouldn't surprise me if he became a serviceable shooter in a short period of time. I say that because the shots he'll get in the NBA as a 4th option scorer will be catch-and-shoot 3's in rhythm, and also because shooting is a skill that tends to improve pretty rapidly early on because professional basketball players have the infrastructure, time, and financial incentives to work on it.

Fair! I mischaracterized your argument by accident, there. 36% by year two is pretty good, but certainly not great.

Out of curiosity, have you seen any analysis that backs up what you are saying about shot improvement in the NBA? I'm not asking that to be argumentative, I'm curious and I haven't seen a deep study covering that topic. We've all seen people who do improve, and we've also seen players who never do. I don't think I've seen a comprehensive deep dive that shows what ratio of players improve, or by what range they do so. If it exists, I would love to take a look!

[nate33]

Who said he would become a great shooter?

I said it wouldn't surprise me if he became a serviceable shooter in a short period of time. I say that because the shots he'll get in the NBA as a 4th option scorer will be catch-and-shoot 3's in rhythm, and also because shooting is a skill that tends to improve pretty rapidly early on because professional basketball players have the infrastructure, time, and financial incentives to work on it.

Fair! I mischaracterized your argument by accident, there. 36% by year two is pretty good, but certainly not great.

Out of curiosity, have you seen any analysis that backs up what you are saying about shot improvement in the NBA? I'm not asking that to be argumentative, I'm curious and I haven't seen a deep study covering that topic. We've all seen people who do improve, and we've also seen players who never do. I don't think I've seen a comprehensive deep dive that shows what ratio of players improve, or by what range they do so. If it exists, I would love to take a look!

I feel like almost every wing player in the NBA is at least a 35% shooter by Year 3. The ones that aren't, like MKG, are noteworthy for being terrible shooters with awful form. It's possible that it's just survivor's bias, as the ones that don't learn to shoot are out of the league after their rookie deals are up. But I'm thinking of guys like OG Anunoby, Troy Brown and Trevor Ariza.

It's worth noting that Kuminga is shooting 3's from NBA range and we are comparing him to draftees who are shooting from college range.

[FAH1223]

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[Illuminaire]

I feel like almost every wing player in the NBA is at least a 35% shooter by Year 3. The ones that aren't, like MKG, are noteworthy for being terrible shooters with awful form. It's possible that it's just survivor's bias, as the ones that don't learn to shoot are out of the league after their rookie deals are up. But I'm thinking of guys like OG Anunoby, Troy Brown and Trevor Ariza.

It's worth noting that Kuminga is shooting 3's from NBA range and we are comparing him to draftees who are shooting from college range.

In the interests of science, I took a look at small forwards over the last 3 years. I broke them down into three sets of 32 - starters, rotation players, and scrubs, ranked by MPG each season.

Over the last three seasons, roughly ~70% of starting wings shoot 35% or better from range.

Only about 46% of rotation players shoot that well.

And scrubs had 27% of players shooting 35% or better. (This group had the most variance, with a high year of ~40% and a low year of 15%).

This validates your observation regarding starting caliber wings largely being able to shoot well. I think it also shows that in the modern NBA, it's very hard to be a successful starting caliber wing if you can't shoot - which would support my concerns about the risk factor of drafting a SF and hoping they'll develop this key skill.

The next step is looking at SFs drafted over the last few years and then tracking their shooting percentages from season to season, including all the players we forget about because they failed to improve and washed out of rotations. I don't have nearly enough time for that atm, but if I get feisty I'll give it a shot this weekend.

[NatP4]

I still do not see Neemius Queta mocked in the 1st round. I find that ridiculous. You can make the argument that he’s the best C in the entire draft.

19 points 13 rebounds 3 assists 3.6 blocks 1 steal per 40 minutes on 61% TS in his college career with an 8.4 BPM. Doesn’t turn 22 until after the draft. 7”5 wingspan. That’s not a 1st round pick????

There’s 4-5 prospects in every draft that draw some lazy Draymond Green comparisons, but Queta actually fits the bill.

[NatP4]

Kendric Davis from SMU is another name to watch in round 2. Should be talked about a lot more. 22 points and 8.8 assists to only 2.8 turnovers per 40. Shot 50% on 2s in his college career and steadily improved his 3 ball to finish at 37% his junior year.

Not the shooter that Shake Milton was for SMU, but a much better playmaker and finisher at the basket. Could end up as a starting PG in the NBA.

So many sneaky good guards in round 2 with guys like Bones Hyland, McKinley Wright, and Kendric Davis.

[pcbothwel]

I still do not see Neemius Queta mocked in the 1st round. I find that ridiculous. You can make the argument that he’s the best C in the entire draft.

19 points 13 rebounds 3 assists 3.6 blocks 1 steal per 40 minutes on 61% TS in his college career with an 8.4 BPM. Doesn’t turn 22 until after the draft. 7”5 wingspan. That’s not a 1st round pick????

There’s 4-5 prospects in every draft that draw some lazy Draymond Green comparisons, but Queta actually fits the bill.

Agreed. I loved Tillman last year and Queta looks to have more defensive upside.

[doclinkin]

I still do not see Neemius Queta mocked in the 1st round. I find that ridiculous. You can make the argument that he’s the best C in the entire draft.

19 points 13 rebounds 3 assists 3.6 blocks 1 steal per 40 minutes on 61% TS in his college career with an 8.4 BPM. Doesn’t turn 22 until after the draft. 7”5 wingspan. That’s not a 1st round pick????

There’s 4-5 prospects in every draft that draw some lazy Draymond Green comparisons, but Queta actually fits the bill.

I've been on his bandwagon since Ruz tugged my sleeve on him. I absolutely think he is the most ready NBA center from day one. The knock on him is injury risk, if he gets a big time trainer to help him with that then his production should outpace any nagging injury issues. That said I think he will measure well at the combine and in workouts and will start to climb into the 1st round.

[NatP4]

This is a good one with some really good NBA comparisons:

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2021_nba_mock_draft_first_round/s1__34581413

[nate33]

This is a good one with some really good NBA comparisons:

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/2021_nba_mock_draft_first_round/s1__34581413

Interesting mock. I think he gets the order about right but I disagree with some of his comps.