What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[bisme37]

He'd instantly be a 30 point scorer if he could stop missing all of his shots in the first quarter lol. It's fun to watch him get cooking over the course of the game but it would be more fun if he'd cook for the entire game.

[jumblin]

He's a very talented player, but he doesn't possess the intangibles to be a franchise cornerstone for a team that has championship aspirations.

Personally I'd trade him before the rest of the league figures out that he's just a stat machine and not a winner.

[akidlittle]

He's a very talented player, but he doesn't possess the intangibles to be a franchise cornerstone for a team that has championship aspirations.

Personally I'd trade him before the rest of the league figures out that he's just a stat machine and not a winner.

Whom would you trade him for?

[BK_2020]

He'd instantly be a 30 point scorer if he could stop missing all of his shots in the first quarter lol. It's fun to watch him get cooking over the course of the game but it would be more fun if he'd cook for the entire game.

Heck, he'd be a 50 point scorer if he could stop missing, smdh.

[Bleeding Green]

The guy with the fifth-most playoff minutes since he entered the league isn't a winner.

[GoGreen]

He's so whiny and like Perk said, terrible body language.

Tbh, kinda reminds me of Pierce early in his career, in a way. Still immature, questions about leadership and whether he can be the top dog on a team.

I'd love to see a vet with some attitude, in a good way, on this team. Someone that can change the culture to a more competitive and cutthroat spirit. What KG and to a lesser extent, IT, did. Need more pitbulls, less choir boys.

[Feed Your Head]

It’s funny how people are talking about him having a “down” year. He’s one of six guys averaging 25/7/4, is 2nd in the league in LARAPM, 11th in the league in LEBRON. The names around him are exactly who you’d expect, the top 15 in LEBRON is pretty close to how most people would rank the 15 best players.

More importantly, the team still falls off a cliff when he sits. For the talk of how he bogs the offense down, here is their offensive rating with the following players on and off the court.

Tatum: 114/106.8 +7.2
Jaylen: 112.5/110.6 +1.9
Kemba: 112.8/111.6 +1.2
Smart: 112.3/112.2 +0.1

Their net rating on/off’s for the following players
Tatum: +5.5
Jaylen: +0.7
Kemba:+1.8
Smart: +1.6

He’s the only player on the team where they have a negative net rating when not in the game, for the 2nd straight year. He passes the ball 49 times a game, and catches it 51 times. Kemba is at 51 passes and 61 catches, Jaylen 30 passes and 42 catches, and Smart with 47 passes and 52 catches. So he clearly moves the ball quite a bit, b-ball index has him as the 9th best playmaking forward in the league this season.

He shoots 72% within 3 feet of the rim, has become our best non Rob finisher in the paint. He has the 2nd lowest turnover rate for anybody with a usage over 30%, trailing only Kyrie. Part of that is he doesn’t facilitate as much as some of the high usage guys, but either way, he’s been elite at taking care of the ball. And out of the top guys, he’s been BY FAR our most efficient in clutch situations.

Does he hold the ball too long? 100%. Has his defense fallen off? Absolutely. Do I wish he’d show some more emotion? Sure, I guess. But he’s still clearly been the best player on the team, and people say “well all he’s doing is leading a .500 team”, and sure that’s true, but the numbers show that without JT, they’d be one of the worst teams in the league. People just have insane expectations for a guy who just turned 23 a month ago.

[Hal14]

There's only 12 players in the league I would say are definitely better than Tatum right now. Out of those 12, the only one who's same age or younger than Tatum is Doncic. Which means that eventually he could possibly be a top 2 player in the league but more realistically he does have a legit chance 3-5 years from now to be top 5 in the league. He could potentially rack up at least 2-3 (maybe more) 1st team all NBA selections.

After that top 12 there's a tier of like 8 guys or so rounding out the top 20.

These IMO are really his only areas where there's room for improvement:

-Leadership
-Making his teammates better
-Killer instinct
-Better consistency

If he works on these areas and stays healthy, there's no question he can eventually be a top 4 or 5 player in the league for 3 or 4 (maybe more) seasons. And definitely has a shot to be top 10 player in the league as soon as next year so if he's top 10 at age 24 then yeah, he could be top 10 player in the league for 5 or 6+ seasons which would definitely make him a hall of fame candidate.

[Hal14]

He's so whiny and like Perk said, terrible body language.

Tbh, kinda reminds me of Pierce early in his career, in a way. Still immature, questions about leadership and whether he can be the top dog on a team.

I'd love to see a vet with some attitude, in a good way, on this team. Someone that can change the culture to a more competitive and cutthroat spirit. What KG and to a lesser extent, IT, did. Need more pitbulls, less choir boys.

I think that was part of the reason for the Thompson signing. Smart is a pitbull. But yeah, adding 1 other guy like that, a veteran with good leadership qualities and a mean streak would help for sure..

[Hal14]

He's a very talented player, but he doesn't possess the intangibles to be a franchise cornerstone for a team that has championship aspirations.

Personally I'd trade him before the rest of the league figures out that he's just a stat machine and not a winner.

Very few 23 year olds in the history of the game meet the bolded criteria. Magic won a title as a rookie but he wasn't the best player on his team - Kareem was.

Bird won a title in his 2nd year, but Bird was 24 when he won that ring, so a year older than Tatum. Give Tatum another year to mature and you might change your tune. Also, he was Larry Freaking Bird. As Magic said, "there will never, ever be another Larry Bird"

Like Bird, Wade was also 24 when he was the undisputed best player on a championship caliber team, when he led the Heat to the title in 2006.

Jordan was 28 the first time he played in an NBA finals. When Jordan was 24 he definitely was not seen as a guy with leadership ability. It wasn't until the Bulls hired Phil Jackson (arguably the greatest coach of all time) before Jordan figured out how to play winning team basketball. Odds are, the Tatum will never be coached by anyone nearly as good as Jackson, so you can't really fault Tatum for that.

Nowitzki was 28 when he first got the Mavericks to the finals in 2006.

Looking more recently, Curry was 27 the first time he won a title. Prior to age 27 in 2015, Curry had never even been to the conference finals.

What about Kawhi? He was definitely not THE guy on the Spurs in 2014. Leonard was definitely the franchise player and best player for the Raptors when they won the title in 2019, but Leonard was 27 then...he turned 28 2 weeks after they won the title.

Then we have LeBron. Got his Cavs to the finals in 2007 at age 23. I believe he is the only guy ever age 23 or younger to bethe undisputed best player on a team that reached the finals. Tatum isn't where Lebron was at age 23, but c'mon now. Nobody else in the history of the game has been as good as Lebron at age 23. Many consider lebron to be the GOAT. Oh, and Bill Russell also won a ring as the Celtics best player in his rookie year at age 23.

Olajuwon was also just 23 when he was the best player on the Rockets when they made the finals in 86. Most people (including myself) consider him top 10 of all time, though.

Shaq was also 23 when he got the magic to the finals in 95.

So there you have it. Russell, Lebron, Hakeem and Shaq got to the finals at age 23. Bird and Wade did it at age 24. Everyone else not till way later. Tatum is 23. Let's chill here - we would be morons if we traded him right now, when he's literally entering his prime right now.

Nobody thought Tatum was going to be as good as Lebron, Rusell, Shaq or Hakeem anyways. That's 4 of the top 11 players of all time. So who knows? Tatum could end up being top 20 of all time, yet you want to trade him just as he's entering his prime? LOL

[playa-hater]

There's only 12 players in the league I would say are definitely better than Tatum right now. Out of those 12, the only one who's same age or younger than Tatum is Doncic. Which means that eventually he could possibly be a top 2 player in the league but more realistically he does have a legit chance 3-5 years from now to be top 5 in the league. He could potentially rack up at least 2-3 (maybe more) 1st team all NBA selections.

After that top 12 there's a tier of like 8 guys or so rounding out the top 20.

These IMO are really his only areas where there's room for improvement:

-Leadership
-Making his teammates better
-Killer instinct
-Better consistency

If he works on these areas and stays healthy, there's no question he can eventually be a top 4 or 5 player in the league for 3 or 4 (maybe more) seasons. And definitely has a shot to be top 10 player in the league as soon as next year so if he's top 10 at age 24 then yeah, he could be top 10 player in the league for 5 or 6+ seasons which would definitely make him a hall of fame candidate.

agree with all above, but would like to add more.

- make quicker decisions/moves
- stop taking one legged fadeaways
- finish layups better/stronger

[cloverleaf]

There's only 12 players in the league I would say are definitely better than Tatum right now. Out of those 12, the only one who's same age or younger than Tatum is Doncic. Which means that eventually he could possibly be a top 2 player in the league but more realistically he does have a legit chance 3-5 years from now to be top 5 in the league. He could potentially rack up at least 2-3 (maybe more) 1st team all NBA selections.

After that top 12 there's a tier of like 8 guys or so rounding out the top 20.

These IMO are really his only areas where there's room for improvement:

-Leadership
-Making his teammates better
-Killer instinct
-Better consistency

If he works on these areas and stays healthy, there's no question he can eventually be a top 4 or 5 player in the league for 3 or 4 (maybe more) seasons. And definitely has a shot to be top 10 player in the league as soon as next year so if he's top 10 at age 24 then yeah, he could be top 10 player in the league for 5 or 6+ seasons which would definitely make him a hall of fame candidate.

Those are some pretty big areas for room for improvement IMO. How about passing? Shot selection? Efficiency, etc., too?
He could pull it all together, but right now he's missing the critical elements to make the top 15 in my book.

[pac213up]

He has some obvious areas to improve upon, not surprising given his age. His impact probably is not where it feels like he should be because he has struggled with the ball in his hand and his ability to make the right play consistently. Again...not surprising or really even that concerned. His RPM is 56th in the league and trails JB who is 23rd. Again JB being 2 years old with more experience. This seems like the normal path of evolution for both guys given age, experience, and history of players in the league. Expectations have not been realistic given the makeup of the rest of the roster.

[Feed Your Head]

He has some obvious areas to improve upon, not surprising given his age. His impact probably is not where it feels like he should be because he has struggled with the ball in his hand and his ability to make the right play consistently. Again...not surprising or really even that concerned. His RPM is 56th in the league and trails JB who is 23rd. Again JB being 2 years old with more experience. This seems like the normal path of evolution for both guys given age, experience, and history of players in the league. Expectations have not been realistic given the makeup of the rest of the roster.

Ever since RPM changed its formula during the shutdown last season, its been a disaster. The fact that Tatum was 11th in RPM last year and 53rd this year, with equal or better numbers across the board is pretty telling. It’s at the bottom of advanced stats nowadays, with BPM and VORP. And I say that with Tatum having a pretty decent edge on Jaylen in both of the latter. His impact has been huge though, I posted the numbers above, the team falls off a cliff without him. Nobody on the roster has come close to him, with regards to impact.

This is what I’ve been using for advanced stats this season, has a few different ones. Though these stats undervalue Jaylen, I think.

https://www.bball-index.com/2020-21-lebron-data/

Their Twitter is a must follow as a basketball fan, IMO. No impact stat is perfect, but Bball index has had the best free ones for awhile, IMO. PIPM was my favorite, as I pumped it up all last season. LEBRON just seems like an advancement of that stat, though.

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[playa-hater]

He's a very talented player, but he doesn't possess the intangibles to be a franchise cornerstone for a team that has championship aspirations.

Personally I'd trade him before the rest of the league figures out that he's just a stat machine and not a winner.

this is silly. but for the sake of argument. How many other "stat machine" players are verygood -great defenders. definitely not Prime Melo. Not Luka Doncic, Not R Westbrook. Not Dame Lillard and so on..

[cloverleaf]

He's a very talented player, but he doesn't possess the intangibles to be a franchise cornerstone for a team that has championship aspirations.

Personally I'd trade him before the rest of the league figures out that he's just a stat machine and not a winner.

this is silly. but for the sake of argument. How many other "stat machine" players are very-great defenders. definitely not Prime Melo. Not luka Doncic, Not R Westbrook. Not Dame Lillard.

Since when does possessing "the intangibles" translate into being a very great defender?

[playa-hater]

He's a very talented player, but he doesn't possess the intangibles to be a franchise cornerstone for a team that has championship aspirations.

Personally I'd trade him before the rest of the league figures out that he's just a stat machine and not a winner.

this is silly. but for the sake of argument. How many other "stat machine" players are very-great defenders. definitely not Prime Melo. Not luka Doncic, Not R Westbrook. Not Dame Lillard.

Since when does possessing "the intangibles" translate into being a very great defender?

it doesn't, but my comment was more directed at being a corner stone franchise player. Example being a young Kawhi Leonard. No way did he posses any "intangibles" and yet I definitely consider KL a Franchise corner stone player.

In fact I think you can make a strong case that Tatum is well ahead of any part of the game of BB > KL at their same age, except Tatum is a very good defender and KL is GOAT level perimeter defender.

[cloverleaf]

this is silly. but for the sake of argument. How many other "stat machine" players are very-great defenders. definitely not Prime Melo. Not luka Doncic, Not R Westbrook. Not Dame Lillard.

Since when does possessing "the intangibles" translate into being a very great defender?

it doesn't, but my comment was more directed at being a corner stone franchise player. Example being a young Kawhi Leonard. No way did he posses any "intangibles" and yet I definitely consider KL a Franchise corner stone player.

In fact I think you can make a strong case that Tatum is well ahead of any part of the game of BB > KL at their same age, except Tatum is a very good defender and KL is GOAT level perimeter defender.

I don't think the question is Tatum's skill level at all. Well, okay, somewhat his passing and vision. But it has mostly to do with whether he is driven to lead his team to win and how much he is instead just a selfish, look-at-me, stat chaser. In a lot of ways KL came up as the opposite of a Tatum type of player.

[ZeroTolerance]

Is he gonna get better? .....sure....But he's just not a leader...anymore than Kevin Durant or James Hardin is.... He's your basic second fiddle......that's OK I guess?...If only Marcus Smart had his talent and Jason Tatum had Marcus Smart's swagger!.... I'm one of those who thinks Jaylen is a better fit.....(if someone has to go)....

[Feed Your Head]

Is he gonna get better? .....sure....But he's just not a leader...anymore than Kevin Durant or James Hardin is.... He's your basic second fiddle......that's OK I guess?...If only Marcus Smart had his talent and Jason Tatum had Marcus Smart's swagger!.... I'm one of those who thinks Jaylen is a better fit.....(if someone has to go)....

Then why do they play so much better with Tatum on the court than Jaylen? And why do they fall off a cliff when Tatum sits, and not Jaylen? This is despite being a year and a half younger. What exactly about Jaylen makes him a better fit? Because as far as on the actual court, he’s been the less effective player on both sides of the court.