What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[sportfan6197]

Was Kawhi elite at age 23? Hell no.GTFO.

He was at least a lot closer than people thought - at 22 he won Finals MVP and his teammates basically came out and said they knew he was elite, and were just waiting for him to show it.

(that's not literally what was said, but it was clear they held him in high regard)

This was literally Tatum rookie year

[sportfan6197]

I don't know where to put this, but Tatum is too slow to bring the ball up. He's basically risking an 8 second violation 50% of the time.

I just don't see a benefit in wasting 1/3 of the shot clock walking it up and not even being in a set. It's a little thing, but I'm sure it'll occasionally bite us on the ass with shot clock violations and poor shots.

In general I think his calmness is a huge advantage, but I'd like to see him play with pace more often. Games we've been down significantly in, he's turned a switch to get us back in it, but I'd like to see that regardless of the score. He's got the talent to be that aggressive all the time.

Majority of the criticism here is usually hyperbole but this one is 100% valid

[BFitzMoney]

this is silly. but for the sake of argument. How many other "stat machine" players are verygood -great defenders. definitely not Prime Melo. Not Luka Doncic, Not R Westbrook. Not Dame Lillard and so on..

Those players you mentioned are very good comps for Tatum (with the exception of Donic). Great players who put up huge numbers and never win. Could Tatum grow into a great leader and winner? Possibly. But based on what we've seen, it seems more probable he will grow into a Harden/Westbrook type who puts up great numbers but never wins.

Based on what I've seen? Dude, someone get this troll out of here. tatum is only 23..chill..

Are people really comparing Tatum to Harden and Westbrook and trying to put it as a negative. You do realize they both are MVPs? Now I personally don't like Westbrook and the way he plays but cmon. And as far as Harden ... he's a monster. So what happens if the nets win say, 2 out of the next 3 years. Does Harden suddenly become a better player because he has to championships? Of course not.

There are nuances to basketball, it's not all cut and dry. You have people on this board calling for Danny to get fired every day. Calling for a new coach. Calling for trades. There are issues with the Celtics right now but it doesn't tarnish Tatum's rep at all. He can without a doubt be a 1A on a championship team. It's all about fit and who is around him.

Things take time. People used to harp to death that "Kobe would never win a ring without Shaq", until he did. Or "Lebron could never win a championship out West", until he did. People become prisoners of the moment and make snap judgements from one season, or even crazier one stretch of games. It's ridiculous.

EDIT: My comment was in response to the guy you quoted.

[Bleeding Green]

Harden could literally win a title this year as the best player on the best team in the NBA. He got as close as anyone to beating the peak Warriors, and probably does if Chris Paul isn't made of glass. God I hope Tatum fails this hard in his career.

[zoyathedestroya]

I love the improvement finishing at the rim, last season he shot 62% within 3 feet, this year he’s up to 73%.

If you’re not going to get to the line a lot, you have to be an elite finisher, and he’s pretty much there.

Still need to up the volume. He's below league average in the rate he's taking threes, FTs, and shots at the rim. Not ideal in modern game. His insistence on taking midrangers is keeping him from being a truly elite and efficient scorer in this league.

Will do a deep dive once I’m home from work, but at least to the eye, it seems as though he’s significantly upped his threes and shots at the rim over the last few weeks.

Now he just needs to keep it up.

2019-20 (3PAr, FTr, % shots within 3 ft of rim): .383, .255, .248
2020-21 (3PAr, FTr, % shots within 3 ft of rim): .370, .228, .185

Decrease in all 3 areas from last season when we should be seeing an increase instead. He basically replaced those with short midrange shots.

So I thought maybe the reason why he doesn't get into the paint is because of the lack of spacing and the early use of double-big lineups. So I checked his 3PAr, FTr, and drives per game before and after Thompson was sidelined. Before TT got COVID, we mostly used double-big starting lineups. After TT went down and then after the Theis trade, it's always single-big lineups.

Pre-TT-COVID (3PAr, FTr, Drives): .341, .234, 13.1
Post-TT-COVID (3PAr, FTr, Drives): .436, .206, 10.1

Drives and FTs went down but at least he increased his three-point takes.

For me, it's less scheme and less personnel on the floor but more on Tatum's mindset. Whenever he doesn't take too much time deciding what to do with the ball, when he just catches-and-goes (JB has gotten good at this), he's much more effective. When he holds on to the ball too long, he settles for his jumpers or the defense is able to reset/recover and meet him in the paint leading to his awkward floaters.

[Feed Your Head]

Still need to up the volume. He's below league average in the rate he's taking threes, FTs, and shots at the rim. Not ideal in modern game. His insistence on taking midrangers is keeping him from being a truly elite and efficient scorer in this league.

Will do a deep dive once I’m home from work, but at least to the eye, it seems as though he’s significantly upped his threes and shots at the rim over the last few weeks.

Now he just needs to keep it up.

2019-20 (3PAr, FTr, % shots within 3 ft of rim): .383, .255, .248
2020-21 (3PAr, FTr, % shots within 3 ft of rim): .370, .228, .185

Decrease in all 3 areas from last season when we should be seeing an increase instead. He basically replaced those with short midrange shots.

So I thought maybe the reason why he doesn't get into the paint is because of the lack of spacing and the early use of double-big lineups. So I checked his 3PAr, FTr, and drives per game before and after Thompson was sidelined. Before TT got COVID, we mostly used double-big starting lineups. After TT went down and then after the Theis trade, it's always single-big lineups.

Pre-TT-COVID (3PAr, FTr, Drives): .341, .234, 13.1
Post-TT-COVID (3PAr, FTr, Drives): .436, .206, 10.1

Drives and FTs went down but at least he increased his three-point takes.

For me, it's less scheme and less personnel on the floor but more on Tatum's mindset. Whenever he doesn't take too much time deciding what to do with the ball, when he just catches-and-goes (JB has gotten good at this), he's much more effective. When he holds on to the ball too long, he settles for his jumpers or the defense is able to reset/recover and meet him in the paint leading to his awkward floaters.

It shows up in the numbers, too. Here are his shooting splits by how long he holds the ball.

<2 seconds: 56/41
2-6 seconds: 45/38
6+ seconds: 40/37

Same for number of dribbles, with the exception of from deep on 7+ dribbles, shoots 39% on those threes. I’m sure these numbers are the same for most players, so all we can hope for is that he realizes how much easier the game is when you make quicker decisions. Obviously a big part of that is all the defensive attention, but that will get better the more he deals with it.

He also needs to get out in transition more, is in the 95th percentile as a transition scorer, yet he does it half as much as Jaylen, who is somehow only in the 62nd percentile. I would have guessed higher on JB, dude doesn’t mess around in transition.

[zoyathedestroya]

Not worried about his free throw rate btw. Year after year, that has gone up in the playoffs for him. He just needs to keep being aggressive getting into the paint. I do love how he's using the glass as his friend now, attacking from the sides more. His arms are so long and he has the touch to flip it over any defender. He doesn't need to get all the way to the rim.

I don't really mind him working the refs, 'cos I think eventually it pays off (see Lebron, Lowry, Harden, etc.) but don't freaking do it with the ball live and the other team's running back to score in transition.

[zoyathedestroya]

Will do a deep dive once I’m home from work, but at least to the eye, it seems as though he’s significantly upped his threes and shots at the rim over the last few weeks.

Now he just needs to keep it up.

2019-20 (3PAr, FTr, % shots within 3 ft of rim): .383, .255, .248
2020-21 (3PAr, FTr, % shots within 3 ft of rim): .370, .228, .185

Decrease in all 3 areas from last season when we should be seeing an increase instead. He basically replaced those with short midrange shots.

So I thought maybe the reason why he doesn't get into the paint is because of the lack of spacing and the early use of double-big lineups. So I checked his 3PAr, FTr, and drives per game before and after Thompson was sidelined. Before TT got COVID, we mostly used double-big starting lineups. After TT went down and then after the Theis trade, it's always single-big lineups.

Pre-TT-COVID (3PAr, FTr, Drives): .341, .234, 13.1
Post-TT-COVID (3PAr, FTr, Drives): .436, .206, 10.1

Drives and FTs went down but at least he increased his three-point takes.

For me, it's less scheme and less personnel on the floor but more on Tatum's mindset. Whenever he doesn't take too much time deciding what to do with the ball, when he just catches-and-goes (JB has gotten good at this), he's much more effective. When he holds on to the ball too long, he settles for his jumpers or the defense is able to reset/recover and meet him in the paint leading to his awkward floaters.

It shows up in the numbers, too. Here are his shooting splits by how long he holds the ball.

<2 seconds: 56/41
2-6 seconds: 45/38
6+ seconds: 40/37

Same for number of dribbles, with the exception of from deep on 7+ dribbles, shoots 39% on those threes. I’m sure these numbers are the same for most players, so all we can hope for is that he realizes how much easier the game is when you make quicker decisions. Obviously a big part of that is all the defensive attention, but that will get better the more he deals with it.

He also needs to get out in transition more, is in the 95th percentile as a transition scorer, yet he does it half as much as Jaylen, who is somehow only in the 62nd percentile. I would have guessed higher on JB, dude doesn’t mess around in transition.

While it sounds like we're asking him to become a robot, it's not. And it won't happen overnight. But you have to start somewhere and make it a habit. The team as a whole has to play with more pace I think since we don't really have several offensive weapons at our disposal (or at least not as much as two or three seasons ago). In fairness to Tatum, the touch time is a tricky thing. With the team asking him to become more of a facilitator and playmaker, he does need to survey the floor more compared to JB for example (who's really more of a finisher).

[Feed Your Head]

Not worried about his free throw rate btw. Year after year, that has gone up in the playoffs for him. He just needs to keep being aggressive getting into the paint. I do love how he's using the glass as his friend now, attacking from the sides more. His arms are so long and he has the touch to flip it over any defender. He doesn't need to get all the way to the rim.

I don't really mind him working the refs, 'cos I think eventually it pays off (see Lebron, Lowry, Harden, etc.) but don't freaking do it with the ball live and the other team's running back to score in transition.

This is the worst, and he seems to have infected Jaylen with it. Between them, and Kemba not ever getting back, we are getting decimated in transition.

[jumblin]

Tatum after his big night:

I'm just glad to help my team get the win. 50 points if you lose don't mean nothing. At my age I just want to win. The numbers will come on their own.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/31226238/jayson-tatum-scores-53-points-drags-boston-celtics-timberwolves-ot

Great to see this kind of team first leadership out of Tatum. Maybe I was wrong about his selfishness after all.

[CoP]

I don't know where to put this, but Tatum is too slow to bring the ball up. He's basically risking an 8 second violation 50% of the time.

I just don't see a benefit in wasting 1/3 of the shot clock walking it up and not even being in a set. It's a little thing, but I'm sure it'll occasionally bite us on the ass with shot clock violations and poor shots.

In general I think his calmness is a huge advantage, but I'd like to see him play with pace more often. Games we've been down significantly in, he's turned a switch to get us back in it, but I'd like to see that regardless of the score. He's got the talent to be that aggressive all the time.

Majority of the criticism here is usually hyperbole but this one is 100% valid

It's valid for most of the players except for maybe Pritchard. Always seems like Kemba and Smart are flirting with the 8-second violation on most possessions as well. Not sure how much it would matter seeing as their half-court offense is mainly just perimeter passing, handoffs and screens until there's 10 seconds left on the shot clock.

[CoP]

Pre AS game, 21% of his FGA were in the RA. That's up to 27% post AS game.

35% of his FGA were 3s prior to AS game, now it's 42%.

Other points of note pre vs. post AS game: % of fast break points and points in the paint are up, while points from midrange are down.

Improvements in all areas. As a result, efg% (50 -> 58) and ts% (55 -> 62) are both up post AS game as well.

These are all arguments for pushing the pace more off TOs and misses, which create opportunities at the rim as well as for open 3 looks off kickouts.

Currently the team is ranked 22nd in pace.

[zoyathedestroya]

Tatum currently one of 7 players to average at least 25/7/4. Lebron, Durant, Jokic, Doncic, Giannis, and Harden are the other six.

Last Celtic to average 25/7/4 in a season was Paul Pierce in 2002-03. He was in his 5th season. Stat comparison: https://stathead.com/tiny/pbvs9. Pierce got to the line twice as much as Tatum. Tatum doubles Pierce up in made threes. They took about the same amount of FGAs.

(I post this while at the same time accuse him of stat-padding in game threads lol.)

[cloverleaf]

I think Tatum needs FT cookies to change his ways and consistently attack the basket. It shouldn't take that, but apparently it does or will. So I hope he can work his way to that reward sooner rather than later in his career.

[Feed Your Head]

Averaging 27/8/4 on 48/38/92 splits over the last 15 games. TS of 61%, and it’s not like he’s on some burner from outside or anything, this looks like it can be relatively sustainable.

Think he’s likely to get that all nba boost in his contract.

[31to6]

Seems to be really high
(His ceiling, not the guy, maybe, what do I know?)

[soxfan2003]

I agree Tatum's ideal role is that of a #2 on a championship level team. The question is, does Tatum accept that? If he would be a malcontent #2 than I'd rather trade him than continue to try and fool ourselves into thinking Tatum will take us to the promised land.

I am not worried about Tatum accepting a #2 role. And #2 player doesn't even necessarily mean #2 scorer. So, Tatum could still be #1 scorer in some scenarios but actually 2nd best player on the team.

I don't expect Tatum to take the Celtics to the so called NBA promise land just like I didn't expect even better Celtics players to carry the team completely on their back. That is why it is critical that all decisions need to be optimized and solely focused on banners.

Some critical decisions since the rebuild started haven't been and that concerns me much more than anything about Tatum. Tatum is the biggest bright spot for the Celtics.

If you give Tatum, the level of support Kobe had after they rebuilt their team around Kobe/Gasol, I fully expect Tatum in a normal NBA period -- i.e no incredible super team like the Warriors -- to win at least one championship. But Kobe had Gasol, Bynum, Artest, Odom, Fisher et cetera.

What Tatum has especially for bigs doesn't come close to comparing and that is the problem. Kemba Walker for playoff basketball is really no better than Fisher and is probably making cap adjusted 4-5 times what Fisher made on a team willing to spend less money than the Lakers.

Fisher averaged less than 5 million a year during the 2008-9 and 2009-10 championship seasons for the Lakers. Even if you adjust it for the increased cap, that is probably less than 8 million. Yes, Fisher just a role player. Hit open shots and defend much better than Kemba. That is all he could do but the rest of the Lakers did everything else.

Very few short PG's are truly worthy of max contracts on teams interested in winning championships at least. And fewer heading into their 30's are. If Ainge/Wyc don't get that basic fact, the Celtics in all likelihood are not winning another championship even if Tatum was hypothetically replaced by a better player.

[Feed Your Head]

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[zoyathedestroya]

It's looking like April 2021 is February 2020.

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I'm liking our chances more for a deep playoff run if this is the Tatum we're getting from here on out.

[24istheLAW]

In the Game Thread, Zoya was cited as suggesting Tatum has gone to the line a lot more in the postseason than in the regular season. So I did a bit of research into this.

His career regular season FTr is .251, career postseason FTr is .366. .251 in the 2021 regular season would place him in the 60th percentile of NBA players, .366 would place him in the 85th percentile. However, that's with 236 qualified NBA players, and includes a lot of low usage sorts who fall at the ends of the spectrum (bigs get to the line at a very high rate, and specialists at a very low rate).

If you take the 50 highest usage players in the NBA? Tatum and Brown are 30th and 20th percentile in FTr this season, respectively. Tatum's career regular season average would put him in the 34th percentile. His playoff average would put him in the 74th percentile. So that .115 bump, when considered in the context of high-usage scoring, is very dramatic.