Official 2021 NBA Draft Thread

[Bensational]

I like Jaden Springer more than his teammate Keon Johnson

I hadn’t watched any Springer before but after checking some footage that doesn’t seem like a controversial take to me. Springer looks great, with a poised style of play and the ability to hit the outside shot.

He’s actually probably the perfect kind of backcourt partner for someone like Keon Johnson.

This is a hot take off little info but I don’t think I’d be upset if we fell out of the top 5 but managed to pick both Keon and Springer with our pick and the Bull’s pick. You get the bonus of existing chemistry for them (we’re seeing they advantage with Chuma/WCJ now), and a backcourt to go with a pretty full front court.

[Skin]

I haven't scouted first round candidates properly, just been focusing on a few. Here are the ones I'm targeting, and wondering how we use them:

Cade - Lead playmaker, add to a big-wing combo with Isaac and Okeke who cover 2-4. Will be your lead scoring option, but will likely also create a ton of easy handoffs/rolls for bigs and kick-outs to perimeter shooters.

Suggs - Maybe I'm overestimating, but I think he could have a CP3 kind of impact on a team. There's a poise and control he showed in his game which shone despite being surrounded by a very experienced and senior team. I don't think he's a league leader scoring threat, but I think he will run an offense perfectly. Question - who's he passing to? WCJ, Bamba, Isaac, Okeke, Harris, Hampton, Cole, Fultz - none of these guys seem cut out to be the #2 that CP3 has shown he needs, let alone Suggs.

Green - I don't have a full feel for how his game will develop, but the tools are all there. is he a Beal/Booker type who will still need a great #2 to be competitive? Will he partner better with a PG, another wing, or a big? (Ie, Kobe + Shaq/Gasol, Wade + Shaq, Wade + Bron, George + Kawhi, Harden + Durant, Klay + Curry, etc).

Keon - I'm fast falling in love with this kid. I just love his combination of athleticism and footwork. I haven't studied him extensively, but from what I've seen he looks like he has really high level body control. His use of pivots and fakes look elite for someone his age and as a guard. He seems to have great hip control, and when he attacks the rim he often leads with his hip to either glance off a defender and explode to the hoop or absorb contact whilst keeping the ball in his offhand for protection. He needs to get a respectable 3pt%p, but his AST% and TOV% track with Suggs as far as efficiency. I'd maybe liken him to Fultz but with less ballhandling/passing skill but a higher likelihood of developing a 3pt shot. Not sure what his PnR game is like, but he'll have to learn one.

I feel the same way about Keon. I think there are definitely worse situations than winding up with him if we fall out of the top 5 as our selection. Suggs and Cade I feel the same.

To me the biggest X factor out of these guys is Green. He seems like he has the highest boom or bust potential. Cade and Green are somewhat quantifiable in their games.

Kuminga, for as high as people sell him as a superior athlete, is a project as far as I’m concerned. Mobley even moreso.

My big board for Orlando:

1a. Suggs
1b. Cade

2. Green
3. Keon

4. Kuminga
5. Mobley

6. Barnes
7. J. Johnson

I'm not sure how Kuminga would be a project but not Keon. Keon has just a much to improve as a shooter. The good thing I'm realizing though is that there might be a Top 6.

[Skin]

I like Jaden Springer more than his teammate Keon Johnson

I hadn’t watched any Springer before but after checking some footage that doesn’t seem like a controversial take to me. Springer looks great, with a poised style of play and the ability to hit the outside shot.

He’s actually probably the perfect kind of backcourt partner for someone like Keon Johnson.

This is a hot take off little info but I don’t think I’d be upset if we fell out of the top 5 but managed to pick both Keon and Springer with our pick and the Bull’s pick. You get the bonus of existing chemistry for them (we’re seeing they advantage with Chuma/WCJ now), and a backcourt to go with a pretty full front court.

Springer getting drafted ahead of Keon would be very controversial. Keon has way more upside. I think Springer will struggle as the strength of his game is fighting through traffic inside the arc and there's just way more size and athleticism in the NBA. Plus he doesn't have an above the rim game and size like Keon.

[Skin]

I like Jaden Springer more than his teammate Keon Johnson

There we go

Where were you a few days ago when the guys were giving me crap for saying the same?

Would you guys like Springer over Cole Anthony? I think they would be competing for role and minutes if we drafted him.

[Bensational]

I like Jaden Springer more than his teammate Keon Johnson

I hadn’t watched any Springer before but after checking some footage that doesn’t seem like a controversial take to me. Springer looks great, with a poised style of play and the ability to hit the outside shot.

He’s actually probably the perfect kind of backcourt partner for someone like Keon Johnson.

This is a hot take off little info but I don’t think I’d be upset if we fell out of the top 5 but managed to pick both Keon and Springer with our pick and the Bull’s pick. You get the bonus of existing chemistry for them (we’re seeing they advantage with Chuma/WCJ now), and a backcourt to go with a pretty full front court.

Springer getting drafted ahead of Keon would be very controversial. Keon has way more upside. I think Springer will struggle as the strength of his game is fighting through traffic inside the arc and there's just way more size and athleticism in the NBA. Plus he doesn't have an above the rim game and size like Keon.

From what I saw in the Springer highlights was he has a really smart sense of timing and positioning. Even as a smaller player in a crowd he was waiting and timing when to go up for the cleanest looks. That’s a skill which helps negate the length of defenders if the timing of the shooter is right. Even though he wasn’t a big assist getter I think he’ll have more potential as a floor general than he has shown as his assists look tight.

Maybe Malcolm Brogdon is a comp for Springer? Need to watch more of him.

[VFX]

I haven't scouted first round candidates properly, just been focusing on a few. Here are the ones I'm targeting, and wondering how we use them:

Cade - Lead playmaker, add to a big-wing combo with Isaac and Okeke who cover 2-4. Will be your lead scoring option, but will likely also create a ton of easy handoffs/rolls for bigs and kick-outs to perimeter shooters.

Suggs - Maybe I'm overestimating, but I think he could have a CP3 kind of impact on a team. There's a poise and control he showed in his game which shone despite being surrounded by a very experienced and senior team. I don't think he's a league leader scoring threat, but I think he will run an offense perfectly. Question - who's he passing to? WCJ, Bamba, Isaac, Okeke, Harris, Hampton, Cole, Fultz - none of these guys seem cut out to be the #2 that CP3 has shown he needs, let alone Suggs.

Green - I don't have a full feel for how his game will develop, but the tools are all there. is he a Beal/Booker type who will still need a great #2 to be competitive? Will he partner better with a PG, another wing, or a big? (Ie, Kobe + Shaq/Gasol, Wade + Shaq, Wade + Bron, George + Kawhi, Harden + Durant, Klay + Curry, etc).

Keon - I'm fast falling in love with this kid. I just love his combination of athleticism and footwork. I haven't studied him extensively, but from what I've seen he looks like he has really high level body control. His use of pivots and fakes look elite for someone his age and as a guard. He seems to have great hip control, and when he attacks the rim he often leads with his hip to either glance off a defender and explode to the hoop or absorb contact whilst keeping the ball in his offhand for protection. He needs to get a respectable 3pt%p, but his AST% and TOV% track with Suggs as far as efficiency. I'd maybe liken him to Fultz but with less ballhandling/passing skill but a higher likelihood of developing a 3pt shot. Not sure what his PnR game is like, but he'll have to learn one.

I feel the same way about Keon. I think there are definitely worse situations than winding up with him if we fall out of the top 5 as our selection. Suggs and Cade I feel the same.

To me the biggest X factor out of these guys is Green. He seems like he has the highest boom or bust potential. Cade and Green are somewhat quantifiable in their games.

Kuminga, for as high as people sell him as a superior athlete, is a project as far as I’m concerned. Mobley even moreso.

My big board for Orlando:

1a. Suggs
1b. Cade

2. Green
3. Keon

4. Kuminga
5. Mobley

6. Barnes
7. J. Johnson

I'm not sure how Kuminga would be a project but not Keon. Keon has just a much to improve as a shooter. The good thing I'm realizing though is that there might be a Top 6.

Well.. The difference is that I don’t realistically see Keon going before Kuminga in any scenario. Keon is likely a 7-12 pick barring some crazy workouts or other guys completely falling off a cliff between now and the draft.

I just think his skill set is safer as a combo guard than Kuminga as a tweener Forward that has low assist numbers and a questionable shot. He looks like a 2-inch taller Justise Winslow with slightly better shot creation. I don’t know how that helps Orlando with a top 5 pick.

[Knightro]

Would you guys like Springer over Cole Anthony? I think they would be competing for role and minutes if we drafted him.

Yes. Springer is a better prospect than Anthony was to me.

There’s not one existing player on the roster I’m factoring is if I was making the picks this year.

Draft BPA. If you create competition between a new guy and one of the existing young guys, great! May the best man win.

[Knightro]

I just think his skill set is safer as a combo guard than Kuminga as a tweener Forward that has low assist numbers and a questionable shot. He looks like a 2-inch taller Justise Winslow with slightly better shot creation. I don’t know how that helps Orlando with a top 5 pick.

I’m still a Kuminga fan. But even I can admit it’s going to take significant time and patience developing him.

I think he has ideal physical tools to be an NBA wing. Size + length + speed + strength + explosiveness. He checks all those boxes.

I thought his slashing ability was really impressive in the bubble. He got to the rim pretty consistently, even against the guys who have pro defense capabilities.

As far as his tangible skill goes -dribbling/passing/shooting - are all more raw than you like to see in a top 5 prospect, but he is so much younger than all the other prospects that I can help but wonder how he’d be doing with another year of development under his belt like all the other prospects have over him. He showed enough signs of development in those areas at such a young age to make me intrigued to see how it will continue.

But therein lies the gamble. Kuminga could (and probably will) struggle significantly early in his NBA career because none of his skills are fully fleshed out. If you’re drafting Kuminga, it’s definitely not for what you think he’ll give you year 1 or or year 2.

[basketballRob]

When I compare Springer and Keon, I could see Keon doing the same moves in the NBA, and I'm not sure if Springer's below the rim style will make it.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[VFX]

I just think his skill set is safer as a combo guard than Kuminga as a tweener Forward that has low assist numbers and a questionable shot. He looks like a 2-inch taller Justise Winslow with slightly better shot creation. I don’t know how that helps Orlando with a top 5 pick.

I’m still a Kuminga fan. But even I can admit it’s going to take significant time and patience developing him.

I think he has ideal physical tools to be an NBA wing. Size + length + speed + strength + explosiveness. He checks all those boxes.

I thought his slashing ability was really impressive in the bubble. He got to the rim pretty consistently, even against the guys who have pro defense capabilities.

As far as his tangible skill goes -dribbling/passing/shooting - are all more raw than you like to see in a top 5 prospect, but he is so much younger than all the other prospects that I can help but wonder how he’d be doing with another year of development under his belt like all the other prospects have over him. He showed enough signs of development in those areas at such a young age to make me intrigued to see how it will continue.

But therein lies the gamble. Kuminga could (and probably will) struggle significantly early in his NBA career because none of his skills are fully fleshed out. If you’re drafting Kuminga, it’s definitely not for what you think he’ll give you year 1 or or year 2.

Yeah, I get why he’s considered a top 4-5 guy in this draft.

I just don’t look at this roster and think “you know what Orlando needs, a great athlete that can get to the rim and rebound.” The main difference to me is in two numbers.

Green: 36.5 3p% on 86 att / 3 assists on 23.4% usg
Kuminga: 24.6 3p% on 63att / 2.6 assists 2.6 turnovers

Green can get away with those numbers as a 2/3. Kuminga can’t as a 3/4.

Basically it comes down to the idea that if you aren’t posting high assist numbers you should be at least capable of stretching the floor. If you are doing neither, then you are a role player as a F. I wouldn’t draft Gerald Wallace with high potential over a number of players in this draft.

[Knightro]

Yeah, I get why he’s considered a top 4-5 guy in this draft.

I just don’t look at this roster and think “you know what Orlando needs, a great athlete that can get to the rim and rebound.” The main difference to me is in two numbers.

Green: 36.5 3p% on 86 att / 3 assists on 23.4% usg
Kuminga: 24.6 3p% on 63att / 2.6 assists 2.6 turnovers

Green can get away with those numbers as a 2/3. Kuminga can’t as a 3/4.

Basically it comes down to the idea that if you aren’t posting high assist numbers you should be at least capable of stretching the floor. If you are doing neither, then you are a role player as a F. I wouldn’t draft Gerald Wallace with high potential over a number of players in this draft.

I get what you're saying, and if these guys were 20, 21, 22 years old and much further along the developmental curve I'd completely agree with you. But Kuminga is playing a year up from where he's supposed to be because of his reclassification up a level and I think that has to be taken into consideration.

Green as the equivalent of a college freshman averaged 3.2 AST/36 and 3.0 TO/36 with a 13.5 AST% and 15.4 TO% in the bubble.
Kuminga as the equivalent of a high school senior averaged 3.0 AST/36 and 2.9 TO/36 with 12.2 AST% and 14.1 TO% in the bubble.

Development isn't always linear, but if Kuminga had played out this past season as a high school senior like he was supposed to and then decided to go the G-League route in 21-22 with an extra year of experience and skill development, would his numbers as college freshman equivalent be be better than Green's were this year? Given how much progress Kuminga has made in the last two years, I think it's possible.

I also think you're putting a little too much emphasis on this "he's not posting high assist numbers" thing. Kuminga, who again is the equivalent of a high school senior playing up a level, averaging 3.3 AST/40 in the G-League is actually quite good for his age and experience level.

Here are some top 10 wings and their AST/40 in their freshman college seasons. And all these other guys were a year further along in the development path than Kuminga. And depending on how you feel about the G-League v. college basketball, they were also facing similar or slightly worse competition than Kuminga faced.

RJ Barrett 4.9 AST/40
Josh Jackson 3.9 AST/40
Jalen Green 3.5 AST/40
Jonathan Kuminga 3.3 AST/40
Jaylen Brown 2.9 AST/40
Jarrett Culver 2.7 AST/40
Jayson Tatum 2.6 AST/40
Cam Reddish 2.6 AST/40
Isaac Okoro 2.6 AST/40
Brandon Ingram 2.3 AST/40
De'Andre Hunter 2.2 AST/40
Patrick Williams 1.8 AST/40
Kevin Knox 1.8 AST/40
Jonathan Isaac 1.8 AST/40
Mikal Bridges 1.7 AST/40

[VFX]

Yeah, I get why he’s considered a top 4-5 guy in this draft.

I just don’t look at this roster and think “you know what Orlando needs, a great athlete that can get to the rim and rebound.” The main difference to me is in two numbers.

Green: 36.5 3p% on 86 att / 3 assists on 23.4% usg
Kuminga: 24.6 3p% on 63att / 2.6 assists 2.6 turnovers

Green can get away with those numbers as a 2/3. Kuminga can’t as a 3/4.

Basically it comes down to the idea that if you aren’t posting high assist numbers you should be at least capable of stretching the floor. If you are doing neither, then you are a role player as a F. I wouldn’t draft Gerald Wallace with high potential over a number of players in this draft.

I get what you're saying, and if these guys were 20, 21, 22 years old and much further along the developmental curve I'd completely agree with you. But Kuminga is playing a year up from where he's supposed to be because of his reclassification up a level and I think that has to be taken into consideration.

Green as the equivalent of a college freshman averaged 3.2 AST/36 and 3.0 TO/36 with a 13.5 AST% and 15.4 TO% in the bubble.
Kuminga as the equivalent of a high school senior averaged 3.0 AST/36 and 2.9 TO/36 with 12.2 AST% and 14.1 TO% in the bubble.

Development isn't always linear, but if Kuminga had played out this past season as a high school senior like he was supposed to and then decided to go the G-League route in 21-22 with an extra year of experience and skill development, would his numbers as college freshman equivalent be be better than Green's were this year? Given how much progress Kuminga has made in the last two years, I think it's possible.

I also think you're putting a little too much emphasis on this "he's not posting high assist numbers" thing. Kuminga, who again is the equivalent of a high school senior playing up a level, averaging 3.3 AST/40 in the G-League is actually quite good for his age and experience level.

Here are some top 10 wings and their AST/40 in their freshman college seasons. And all these other guys were a year further along in the development path than Kuminga. And depending on how you feel about the G-League v. college basketball, they were also facing similar or slightly worse competition than Kuminga faced.

RJ Barrett 4.9 AST/40
Josh Jackson 3.9 AST/40
Jalen Green 3.5 AST/40
Jonathan Kuminga 3.3 AST/40
Jaylen Brown 2.9 AST/40
Jarrett Culver 2.7 AST/40
Jayson Tatum 2.6 AST/40
Cam Reddish 2.6 AST/40
Isaac Okoro 2.6 AST/40
Brandon Ingram 2.3 AST/40
De'Andre Hunter 2.2 AST/40
Patrick Williams 1.8 AST/40
Kevin Knox 1.8 AST/40
Jonathan Isaac 1.8 AST/40
Mikal Bridges 1.7 AST/40

Yeah, again... it’s not just a base assist numbers thing.

It’s shooting % combined with the assist numbers.

You can see the makings of a decent starting caliber wing with decent assist/to numbers, or at the least a decent 3-D guy with some ability to create. A lot of the guys on this list were taken high and are glorified role players or basically out of the league. Not really a great use of a lotto pick if some others are on the board.

[Knightro]

Yeah, again... it’s not just a base assist numbers thing.

It’s shooting % combined with the assist numbers.

Not to be argumentative, but that isn't really what you originally said. If that's what you meant, then so be it. I'm wrong.

But your original point was pretty clearly framed (at least to me) that a wing needs to be doing at least one of the two things - passing or shooting - to be more than a role player.

"Basically it comes down to the idea that if you aren’t posting high assist numbers you should be at least capable of stretching the floor. If you are doing neither, then you are a role player as a F."

I pointed out that Kuminga *is* posting good assist numbers when you factor in his age and experience level and you seemed to move the goalposts a little bit to a wing needing to be able to shoot and provide passing.

[yoyojw17]

Yeah, again... it’s not just a base assist numbers thing.

It’s shooting % combined with the assist numbers.

Not to be argumentative, but that isn't really what you originally said. If that's what you meant, then so be it. I'm wrong.

But your original point was pretty clearly framed (at least to me) that a wing needs to be doing at least one of the two things - passing or shooting - to be more than a role player.

"Basically it comes down to the idea that if you aren’t posting high assist numbers you should be at least capable of stretching the floor. If you are doing neither, then you are a role player as a F."

I pointed out that Kuminga *is* posting good assist numbers when you factor in his age and experience level and you seemed to move the goalposts a little bit to a wing needing to be able to shoot and provide passing.

I would prefer green over Kuminga... from what little I have seenof them and what they can add to this team ....NOW... as they are. BUT... there is no reason to not believe that Kuminga could be one of the top players out of the draft if he landed in our laps. AND... shoot... we also have to prepare forr WeHam's attempt at future sight.... and might take him off of amazing potential.

Many grown ass men would love to have what he does at their ages. If he can get everything else worked out... "watch out now"

[VFX]

Yeah, again... it’s not just a base assist numbers thing.

It’s shooting % combined with the assist numbers.

Not to be argumentative, but that isn't really what you originally said. If that's what you meant, then so be it. I'm wrong.

But your original point was pretty clearly framed (at least to me) that a wing needs to be doing at least one of the two things - passing or shooting - to be more than a role player.

"Basically it comes down to the idea that if you aren’t posting high assist numbers you should be at least capable of stretching the floor. If you are doing neither, then you are a role player as a F."

I pointed out that Kuminga *is* posting good assist numbers when you factor in his age and experience level and you seemed to move the goalposts a little bit to a wing needing to be able to shoot and provide passing.

Let’s put it this way...

Will I be mad if Orlando selects him at #4-6? No.
Will I be skeptical of him being the guy that can generate offense Orlando needs desperately? One hundred percent.

[Xatticus]

Kuminga doesn't really do anything for me. I get the appeal. If he hits, then he could be really good because of his size, strength, and athleticism, but he has to get so much better in so many areas that I think it's really unlikely. All he really does right now is attack the rim. That's fine in transition, but he is a ball stopper in half-court offense.

If we are picking four or five and Cunningham, Suggs, and Green are off the board, I'm seriously looking into moving down to get some extra value. Someone will fall in love with Kuminga and/or Mobley. If you can move back a bit and snag a future unprotected first, I'd go that route.

[pepe1991]

I don't get fasciniation with hype about Barnes and Kuminga at all...

Kuminga is good on ball defender... and that's pretty much it. He isn't stupid player, but guy flat out has no jumpshot. His "playmaking" is a joke. He averaged 2,7 apg on 2,1 turnover on 24,5% usage rate and flat out horrendus shooting splits in G league where nobody even played defense.

Barnes is simply poor version of Ben Simmons. Not that fluid, not that athletic, not that amazing defender and nowhere near advanced playmaker. I don't get what his role on modern offense should even be ? He won't be ballhandler, that's for sure, players will just ignore him in pick&roll and sagg off every screen ever. Guy can't shoot.
NCAA tournament exposed him.

We tried that force feeding Gordon and pretending he is " point forward" and conviced ourselfs he is "good playmaker", just to have guy go to Denver and be turned into garbage man, to figure that's pretty much only realistic role he can play on great team.

I'm not predicting they will be busts, but for damn sure they won't change tragjectory of a teams who take them.

[Knightro]

Let’s put it this way...

Will I be mad if Orlando selects him at #4-6? No.
Will I be skeptical of him being the guy that can generate offense Orlando needs desperately? One hundred percent.

Well sure. No disagreements. I would be very surprised if Kuminga was an efficient offensive player early in his career. He needs time and patience.

That said... I don't necessarily think everything can be viewed through a "this guy can generate offense right now and this guy can't" lens either.

This is very likely going to be a long and difficult rebuild that's going to require multiple lottery picks and luck.

If the Magic believe they can pull everything out of Kuminga and end up with the next Jaylen Brown type of two-way wing by the end of his rookie contract (when he'll still only be 21 turning 22) then there's no reason they shouldn't pick him.

How well a player is going to do during his rookie deal is not really how they should be approaching this process IMO. But I also say that as someone who has Cade/Suggs/Green/Trade up all clearly ahead of Kuminga.

[VFX]

Kuminga doesn't really do anything for me. I get the appeal. If he hits, then he could be really good because of his size, strength, and athleticism, but he has to get so much better in so many areas that I think it's really unlikely. All he really does right now is attack the rim. That's fine in transition, but he is a ball stopper in half-court offense.

If we are picking four or five and Cunningham, Suggs, and Green are off the board, I'm seriously looking into moving down to get some extra value. Someone will fall in love with Kuminga and/or Mobley. If you can move back a bit and snag a future unprotected first, I'd go that route.

This is kind of where I am too with Kuminga and Mobley. On the fence about whether or not trading back would make sense at that juncture. I know people won’t want to look past the BPA argument, but I don’t really think it would be a good fit at al with all the other role players and projects we currently have.

[KillMonger]

i'm taking kuminga and running......not trading down.....youngest out of the top 5 but at the same time he probably has the best nba ready body out of the 5.....shot isn't broken....has some IQ and some dog in him? yeah i'm not worried about fit one bit with a prospect of his caliber, he has star potential