RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 (Grant Hill)

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RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 (Grant Hill) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:11 pm

2020 List
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Kobe Bryant
13. Jerry West
14. Oscar Robertson
15. Dirk Nowitzki
16. Karl Malone
17. David Robinson
18. Julius Erving
19. George Mikan
20. Moses Malone
21. Charles Barkley
22. Kevin Durant
23. Chris Paul
24. Stephen Curry
25. Bob Pettit
26. John Stockton
27. Steve Nash
28. Dwyane Wade
29. Patrick Ewing
30. Walt Frazier
31. James Harden
32. Scottie Pippen
33. Elgin Baylor
34. John Havlicek
35. Rick Barry
36. Jason Kidd
37. George Gervin
38. Clyde Drexler
39. Reggie Miller
40. Artis Gilmore
41. Dolph Schayes
42. Kawhi Leonard
43. Isiah Thomas
44. Russell Westbrook
45. Willis Reed
46. Chauncey Billups
47. Paul Pierce
48. Gary Payton
49. Pau Gasol
50. Ray Allen
51. Dwight Howard
52. Kevin McHale
53. Manu Ginobili
54. Dave Cowens
55. Adrian Dantley
56. Sam Jones
57. Bob Lanier
58. Dikembe Mutombo
59. Elvin Hayes
60. Paul Arizin
61. Anthony Davis
62. Robert Parish
63. Bob Cousy
64. Alonzo Mourning
65. Nate Thurmond
66. Allen Iverson
67. Tracy McGrady
68. Alex English
69. Vince Carter
70. Wes Unseld
71. Tony Parker
72. Rasheed Wallace
73. Dominique Wilkins
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo
75. Kevin Johnson
76. Bobby Jones
77. Bob McAdoo
78. Shawn Marion
79. Dennis Rodman
80. Larry Nance
81. Ben Wallace
82. Hal Greer
83. ??

Target stop-time around 10am EST on Tuesday.

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#2 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:15 pm

Criteria

Spoiler:
I'm a pretty big peak guy, I'm not that interested in value of total seasons. The value of multiple seasons to me is to give me a greater sample size to understanding how good they were on the court, not necessarily the totality of their impact through out the years.

I also value impact over all else, and I define impact as the ability to help a team win games. Boxscore stats, team accolades and individual accolades (unless I agree with them personally) have very little baring on my voting so some names will look a bit wonky. The reason why I ignore accolades and winningness is because basketball is a team game and the players are largely not in control of the quality of their teammates or the health f their team (or their own personal health in key moments), thus I don't see the value of rating players based on xx has this many MVPs versus this guy has this many rings. In addition, I simply find this type of analysis boring because it's quite easy to simply look at who has a bigger laundry list of accomplishments.



1) Bill Walton. He is the best player by far here. He was probably a top 3 player in the world during his last couple years in college as well, though I believe this is NBA only. I am quite certain that Bill Walton is a top 20 peak ever. He is a top ten defensive anchor which alone adds more value than anyone left, and his offensive passing can generate very efficient offenses without him needing to score.

2)) Nikola Jokic. #2 vote I'll give to the only guy who is large and passes better than Walton. I'm not a longevity guy but Jokic has actually been a star caliber player for longer than people think. He was greatly underplayed in his 2nd season and Malone was criticized for that even back then. He has 4 seasons of all-star impact and two seasons where I had him as the 2nd best player in the league. I do think his offense is so special from his position that it causes an imbalance that makes him more valuable than two way bigs. His scoring ability might be the best among all the bigs left, and what's great about him is that he doesn't need to score a lot to have impact. Walton's defense is so intense that I can't imagine taking Jokic over that, but everyone else left is a tier or 2 down from either Walton's offense or his defense.


3) Sidney Moncrief - Sidney does everything well. He is lacking longevity, with maybe 5 great seasons - but outside of that he gave a team everything they'd need. Incredible defensive ability, great passing, good scoring (modest volume but outlier efficiency), good rebounder and he plays well with other stars. The Bucks were a pretty consistent threat in the 80s and Sidney may have been the largest individual reason why. Once his prime really started to hit he was a consistent playoff performer as well. Not only does he seem more well rounded than some of the new contenders (Bosh, B Jones, McAdoo, Marion, Wallace) but he is an outlier in two categories, scoring efficiency and defense. Seems like a superstar almost.












Hawkins > Porter > G Williams > G Hill > Lillard > Issel > Hornacek > H Grant > Bosh > Dennis Johnson >Lucas > C Anthony > Dave DeBusschere
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#3 » by trex_8063 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:48 pm

Below is a listing [alphabetical] of ALL players who have received at least a 3rd place vote, PLUS players for whom it has been implied posters may soon support, the first 20 or so additional players in anyone's extended listing [couple posters have provided that], plus a handful from my own extended [beyond 100] list, EDIT: plus anyone actually voted in on the last two projects.....

Lamarcus Aldridge
Carmelo Anthony
Tiny Archibald
Zelmo Beaty
Walt Bellamy
Mookie Blaylock
Chris Bosh
Elton Brand
Jimmy Butler
Maurice Cheeks
Billy Cunningham
Mel Daniels
Baron Davis
Vlade Divac
Joe Dumars
Dave DeBusschere
Marc Gasol
Paul George
Horace Grant
Draymond Green
Blake Griffin
Cliff Hagan
Tim Hardaway
Penny Hardaway
Connie Hawkins
Grant Hill
Al Horford
Jeff Hornacek
Andre Iguodala
Dan Issel
Dennis Johnson
Marques Johnson
Neil Johnston
Nikola Jokic
Eddie Jones
Shawn Kemp
Andrei Kirilenko
Bill Laimbeer
Damian Lillard
Kevin Love
Kyle Lowry
Jerry Lucas
George McGinnis
Paul Millsap
Sidney Moncrief
Chris Mullin
Terry Porter
Mitch Richmond
Detlef Schrempf
Bill Sharman
Jack Sikma
Amar'e Stoudemire
Chet Walker
Bill Walton
Chris Webber
Gus Williams
James Worthy

I list these players for two reasons:
1) To remind of names anyone may have forgotten to consider. But more importantly....
2) To illustrate to everyone to not get all bent out of shape if a few of "their guys" don't make the cut. Look up there^^^......there are 57 names listed [and there are probably one or two more we could reasonably add].

There are only 18 spots left; you do the math.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#4 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:55 pm

1. Nikola Jokic - I might be voting for Jokic for a while but I think he deserves to make the list at least. Jokic' case is very similar to Giannis in my opinion. Both have 4 high level years along with 1 other positively contributing year. While both have 4 great regular seasons it is clear Giannis has the edge up till 2020, which is why I have him ahead. The difference in longevity is just Giannis' first two years when he was barely a replacement level player so if you're fine with Giannis being voted in this range, how can you justify not having Jokic not in your top 100 at all? Their play-off resumes are comparable at this point as well. Giannis has 5.8 WS and 3.4 VORP in the post-season so far compared to 5.5 WS and 3.5 VORP for Jokic. Giannis has reached the play-offs more often (5 times) than Jokic (2 times) but both have 3 play-off series wins at this point. While Giannis has played 10 more games than Jokic, the reason why the numbers are still close is that both of Jokic' runs were arguably better than any of Giannis' play-off outings. It's a shame some of the voters don't consider him for the top 100 project at all but at this point of the list we're all simply going to have to accept players will receive votes that others don't have among their next 25 picks at all.

2. Gus Williams - While another voter already has Dennis Johnson on his ballot, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned his teammate on the 79 champion Supersonics yet tbh. Gus Williams was only a 2 time All-Star so I understand he might fly under the radar for some people but this massively undervalues him. His prime quality and duration really isn't much different than Ben Wallace. It maybe shouldn't be a surprise I'm this high on Gus WIlliams because I've consistently put a big emphasis on play-off performance and Gus was a post-season savant who consistently stepped his game up when it counted most. After being the best player for the 78 Sonics that lost game 7 of the finals, he went on to post a 23.8 PER, .210 WS/48 and 6.7 BPM alongside a league leading 2.7 WS and 1.3 VORP on the way to a championship the next year. That isn't the end of Gus Williams being amazing in the play-offs though. In the 1980, 82, 83 and 84 post-seasons he had 20+ PER, .150+ WS/48 and 6+ BPM in every single one of those campaigns.

3. Sidney Moncrief - Six strong seasons of prime. Great all around player who impacted the game with his scoring, playmaking, defense and leadership. Moncrief didn't have a ton of success in the play-offs but he did consistently manage to lead teams to the play-offs and be competitive against stacked 76ers and Celtics teams.

Terry Porter > Anfernee Hardaway > Draymond Green > Jimmy Butler > Grant Hill > Horace Grant > James Worthy > Paul George > Damian Lillard > Jeff Hornacek > Kyle Lowry > Jerry Lucas > Walt Bellamy > Carmelo Anthony > Maurice Cheeks > Andrei Kirilenko > Eddie Jones > Chris Bosh > Bill Walton > Connie Hawkins > Dennis Johnson > Dave DeBusschere > Tiny Archibald
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#5 » by Hal14 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:55 pm

Hal14 wrote:1. Dennis Johnson
2. Tiny Archibald
3. Walt Bellamy

Johnson was Finals MVP in 79. The dude was an animal. Flying around the court like a bat outta hell, some of the best defense a guard has ever played. Going all out, hustling, taking it strong to the rim.

Next, let's look at 84. 83-84 was his first year on the Celtics. The year before that in 83 the Celtics got swept in the 2nd round by the Bucks. Yes, KC Jones taking over as coach was a factor as well, but the Celtics adding Johnson was a HUGE reason why they went from being swept in the 2nd round in 83 to NBA world champs beating the Lakers in the finals the very next year in 84 (with Magic and Kareem in their prime).

In both 84 and 86 Johnson was one of the team's top 4 players, came through in the clutch time and time again and Bird is on record saying that Johnson was the best teammate he ever played with (meaning Bird thinks Johnson was better than Parish and Mchale).

Johnson was one of the best defensive guards of all time, easily one of the top 10 defensive guards ever. The guy had very good size and strength at the PG position which made him a tough matchup, early in his career had great explosiveness and athleticism, he could score inside, drive to the basket and as his career went on developed a deadly outside shot - especially in the mid range area, not as much from 3 because at the time 3's weren't being taken very much across the league (early in his career there was no 3 point line), plus he could rebound well, unselfishly looked to get the ball to his teammates but would make you pay dearly if you ignored him too much on offense, plus of course his outstanding defense.

Solid longevity, played 14 seasons (13 of which he played 27+ mins a game and all of them he played in 70+ games) which was solid for that era, especially considering he played in a ton (180 to be exact) of playoff games.

How about durability? The guy always played, he was always in the lineup. Out of his 14 seasons:
-he played 72+ games in 14/14 (100%)
-he played in 77+ games in 12/14 seasons (86%)
-he played in 80+ games in 7/14 seasons (50%)

How about Rasheed's durability?
-he played 72+ games in 14/16 (63%)
-he played in 77+ games in 8/16 seasons (50%)
-he played in 80+ games in 10/16 seasons (13%)

Tiny is a 6 time all-star, 3x all NBA 1st team, 2x all NBA 2nd team. You want peak? Only player ever to lead the NBA in both scoring and assists in the same season. And he was a key piece on the 1981 NBA championship-winning Celtics. Solid defender. Very few point guards in the history of the game possessed his combination of scoring and distributing. And he did it in an era before it was easier for point guards to dominate the league (like it's been since 2005). He'd be even higher up this list if not for injuries, but still had 13 seasons which is pretty good longevity, especially for that era.

Bellamy was a dominant center who could do it all - hit shots, score with power inside, rebound, defend, run the floor. Good combination of size, strength and skill. Sure, his ability diminished in his later years, but that's why he's not a top 50 player. If you just look at top 1 or 2 years for peak, there are very few centers who can match Bellamy. It's about time he gets voted in:

1/11/24 The birth of a new Hal. From now on being less combative, avoiding confrontation - like Switzerland :)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#6 » by trex_8063 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:19 pm

1st vote: Chris Bosh
Things I really like when looking at his career....
1) Fairly nice peak and average prime year: he was basically like clockwork good for ~23/10 year after year in Toronto. Much of that was for mediocre to poor teams, though he also did it for a couple of weak supporting casts that he semi-carried to positive SRS's, 41-47 wins, and playoff berths.
2) Adaptability: he altered his game in Miami to integrate with Lebron on a contender [semi-dynasty]. He developed a 3pt shot, and didn't complain [to my knowledge] about his reduced role. In the meantime he also became [imo] one of the league's best pnr defenders.
3) Consistent high level/longevity of quality. If you just look at total games played [893] or seasons played [13], his longevity doesn't look that great. But a couple things to consider: a) he packed nearly 32k minutes into the 893 games [CAREER avg of 35.8 mpg]; and b) he was good basically his ENTIRE career--->he was already at least an average player as a rookie, improved to clearly above avg in his 2nd year, was a clear All-Star talent by his 3rd season.....and basically never again declined below at least borderline All-Star for the rest of his career [peaking near All-NBA 2nd Team level].

EDIT: His peak PIPM is +4.3 [which is only slightly below legit super-star level], and his best SEVEN years of PIPM avg out to just above +3 (solid All-Star territory, in other words).
From '08-'11 his RAPM was +4 or better EACH YEAR (peaking at +5.3 in '08 [was 9th in the league that year, while playing >36 mpg]), with another +4.5 year in '14, and multiple other seasons in the neighborhood of +2 or higher, and 11 consecutive seasons at greater than +1.
Solid impact pretty much the duration of his career, in other words.

All things considered, it's a formidable amount of career value for this stage of the list, which few other candidates can legitimately challenge. Surprised he doesn't have a pinch more traction, really.


2nd vote: Horace Grant
Yup, I went there. See post 10 of the #80 thread for arguments, for anyone who does not think he's a solid candidate at this stage [at least if longevity of quality factors into your criteria AT ALL].


3rd vote: Dan Issel
As was discussed in the #81 thread (circa-post 30), Dan Issel is sort of like Amar'e Stoudemire (not in style, but in substance)......except with good longevity/durability.
He wasn't much defensively [though probably better than Stat], but he scored and scored and scored (and fairly efficiently: +3.3% rTS for his entire 15-year career, with a solid turnover economy too).

We're talking about the guy who is 11th all-time in career ABA/NBA combined points scored. He's ahead of Hakeem and Elvin Hayes. He's ahead of guys who pretty much hang their hats on being great scorers [and not much else] and who've already been voted in [e.g. Dominique Wilkins, Alex English, Adrian Dantley], as well as Paul Pierce, Vince Carter, Reggie Miller, Oscar Robertson, John Havlicek, Rick Barry, etc etc etc.

He's also #31 all-time in career rebounds.
He's #23 all-time in career rs WS--->the highest ranked player still on the table; he's actually the ONLY player in the top 39 all-time still not voted on to this list (one of only TWO players [with Walt Bellamy] in the top 49 all-time who are not yet on this list).
Going into this current season he was #80 all-time [or since 1973] in career VORP.

He was only awarded an All-Star appearance once in the NBA [though 6 consecutive years in the ABA], but look at his numbers: he was posting All-Star calibre metrics year after year pretty much until his 14th season.

I don't think there's any way he can't at least be in the discussion.


Among those who have received votes of any kind or traction, I'm tentatively going with this order (have opted to move Damian Lillard up a bit):
Bosh > Grant > Issel > Webber > Melo > Hill > LMA > Beaty > Lillard > Cheeks > Sikma > Porter > Moncrief > Walker > DeBusschere > Hornacek > Hawkins > G.Williams > D.Johnson > Tiny/Walton/Jokic (I need think about how I want those four ordered; I've gone round and round in my head. None of them are actually all that close to my top 100, but if it's required for Condorcet I will come up with a hierarchy I can live with).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#7 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:35 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:Why are you so low on Gus Williams? He kind of does everything you would want and he has had plenty of success.


So, I'm not as low on him as I was when we were in the RealGM Hall of Fame project, but I'll start from what I saw at the time:

1. Short, inefficient scorer.
2. Played on a team that won with defense, and his backcourt teammate was both the better floor general and defense.
3. Yes won a title and got to the finals twice...in possibly the absolute nadir of post-Mikan quality. Contenders in most years I'd expect to wipe the floor with those Seattle teams.
4. Weak longevity.

Now, as I've looked into him further I've recognized that he's one of the rare breed who actually gets more effective as a scorer in the playoffs. That's significant.

But for perspective, I think I'd prefer Baron Davis, who is also in the category of playing stronger in the playoffs.

Now something I'll say: I think Davis was better all throughout out his prime than Marion-without-Nash or probably anyone else from that 1999 draft class not named Manu. I think Davis warrants Top 100 consideration so I'm not saying definitively that Williams (or Marion for that matter) doesn't deserve consideration here. But Davis still isn't someone I'm looking to champion compared to the guys I am championing still, so yeah, Williams is not really someone I'm actively thinking about at the moment.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#8 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:05 pm

Wanted to respond to some of HBK's post from last time:

HeartBreakKid wrote:Some random thoughts

- I really like Bernard King, and he might make my top 100 but over the years I've grown lower on him. He was a really really one dimensional player, if basketball was all about scoring then he'd be pretty high up there but the guy didn't really do much else, and he had a very iso heavy style on top of that.

- In regards to Clyde's list in particular - Carmelo Anthony is someone I'm not big on, but what about Paul George? Their careers overlapped and it seems like to me George was a better player, and George also has a full career already by this point. He peaked higher most would agree (2019), and he had more playoff success and generally was a better playoff player.

- I gave Grant Hill a pretty good ranking but I feel like it's based off of name value and perhaps overrating regular season dominance. It seems like his post season scoring was a real problem, and I certainly remember watching him in the playoffs and thinking he was too soft to be a consistent scorer (not soft mentally, but his play style). He was a legit point forward which is nice but someone like Gus Williams can essentially do the same thing that Hill does despite not having the reputation as a scorer.


- I think King deserves a ton of respect for his peak, but we've got guys on the board like Hawkins and Walton who I think were better and accomplished more significant stuff. I also find myself thinking of Jokic, though again, I know I'm being biased by how incredible Jokic is this season.

- Re: Paul George. For me the way George has treated his franchises really holds him back at the moment, but in terms of how good he is at his best, it's not insane at all to be thinking of George as a serious candidate. And yes, I would seriously consider him over Melo.

I've listed players out by draft class before so I'll refrain from doing that again now, but I'll say this:

From 2013 & later, the next guy on my list is Jokic.
In 2012, next it's Lillard (then Draymond who I also hope really gets serious conversation at some point)
2011, next it's Klay (then Jimmy)
In 2010, PG is tops.
In 2009, next it's Blake.
In 2008, next it's Love.
In 2007, next it's Marc Gasol.
In 2006, Lowry is tops.
In 2005, next it's Deron.
In 2004, next it's Iggy.
In 2003, next it's Bosh - and full disclosure, I'd have to have a real debate between Melo & Kyle Korver.

So coming at this from a PG-focused perspective, I'd say in most of those years, there's someone who I think achieved more net positive in their career than George.

Bosh, absolutely. George is now basically where Miami was after their first Heatle season, except the Clips lost in the 2nd round instead of the finals and George was the butt of that particular joke.

Iggy, I'll put it this way: I think he's got a strong HOF case, and I don't think PG does yet.

Lowry? Similar to Iggy.

Gasol? Similar to Lowry.

I'd take Blake's career to this point over George.

Klay? Dude he's a Splash Brother. Wake me up when PG is anyone's brother.

And then there's Dame. I think anyone who has forgotten should remember the s**ttalking George directed at Lillard and what happened next. While I don't want to act like a debate between basketball players should come down to who won the beef, I think we saw very clearly how these guys differed. When the going gets tough, Lillard gets in the zone, and George either leaves or crumbles. Now that's a bit unfair to PG given that sometimes he's great against tough competition, you just can't rely on him, and if things go badly, expect that he might decide that moving to another team is the answer.

I mentioned Jimmy Butler because I think he's had the greater career too. Butler has similar issues to George in this sense to switch teams and I do hold that against Butler some too, but Butler's issues are not George's. In retrospect I think we can clearly see that basically every time Butler has called BS on a situation, he's been proven right after the fact, and the fact that he's been able to take the mantle as the driving leader of Heat culture says very strong things about him.

And I mention Draymond Green because he was a driving force on the most dominant core since the Jordan Bulls.

-Re: Hill. I've had similar mental oscillations to you on him. He does seem like a guy whose approach looked a bit suspect in the playoffs. But on the other hand, it was proto-heliocentrism, and when I look at what Hill could do as a playmaker, I think you could build an elite offense around him today with proper spacing, so I don't think there's any reason to look at what Hill did as a gimmick. I think Hill definitely does deserve Top 100 consideration.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#9 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 11, 2021 4:14 pm

Repeating my vote from before.

One thing I'll say - I'm feeling a need to preach about The Hawk but I'm holding off writing more of a post just on him because his longevity is an issue even for me compared to someone like Lillard who has been an absolute rock for his franchise for nearly a decade now.

Doctor MJ wrote:Sliding Bosh into my Top 3, but I do want people to know that I'm listening to them even if its not enough to sway me yet.

Vote:
1. Damian Lillard
2. Connie Hawkins
3. Chris Bosh

Other preferences in order:

Spoiler:
Bill Walton
Nikola Jokic
Billy Cunningham
Grant Hill
Sidney Moncrief
Tiny Archibald
Dave DeBusschere
Larry Nance
Horace Grant
Dennis Johnson
Terry Porter
Jeff Hornacek
Jerry Lucas
Gus Williams
Carmelo Anthony


Keeping my reasoning from before about Dame & Hawk.

Spoiler:
On Lillard: I'm trying to think about why his longevity feels different to me than it does others. This might be a misguided notion because it might just be that I'm debating with folks who value longevity more than me in general, but there are people in with limited longevity so I really have to think that there is a contingent of voters that have Lillard's rise a bit stuck in their head because his career is still happening - which is something I think we always need to watch for.

First thing, we're talking a lot about longevity here, so I want to compare a few guys with a career production metric - I'll use Win Shares:

Hal Greer 102
Russell Westbrook 101
Kyle Lowry 97
Damian Lillard 89
Anthony Davis 86
Kawhi Leonard 82
Isiah Thomas 80

Now not all of these players are comparison points for the same reason so don't try to force a throughline hastily, let me lay it out a bit:

I've got Lowry there because that's a continuation of something from last thread. Fundamentally, I'm struggling to make myself believe in an argument of longevity over peak when the guy with the longevity edge has around the same amount of total productivity. I know there's room for more nuance than this, but on a certain level I find myself asking "What specifically am I waiting for Lillard to do before I rank him above Lowry?", and I'm drawing a blank.

Westbrook's on there because I think it's pretty telling. We're now at a point where I think we need to start asking ourselves not if but when Lillard surpasses Westbrook in our rankings. If you're not thinking about this, you should be. I think it's highly debatable who should be ranked higher even now.

Isiah is there because, wait, why do we think Isiah was better than Lillard? And Lillard's already surpassed Isiah's career production? And Isiah got voted in how long ago?

AD & Kawhi are there just for point of reference as guys who have been in the league at least as long as Lillard, have already been voted in, and still lag behind Lillard in career production. (To be clear, I rank both guys ahead of Lillard, but I think the point I'm making here is worth pondering.)

Greer is there because he's being discussed.

When I look at this group, I see a disconnect between how other guys are being evaluated and how Lillard is being evaluated. As I've tried to make clear, if you're someone who just takes longevity really seriously in general you're going to just say "Some dudes too high, Lillard too high would be another mistake", that's fine.

But for anyone who is more like me in the sense of being a bit less longevity concerned, I think Lillard may warrant to re-evaluation.

On the Hawk:

Did you know, that Sweetwater Clifton taught Connie Hawkins when both arrived on the Harlem Globetrotters (Clifton for the 2nd time) after the death of the ABL? Hawkins as a 19 year old had won the MVP of the league they were both in the prior year, and when they got on the same team Clifton apparently sought Hawkins out because of the specific untapped potential he saw from being another guy with very large hands.

The skill was specifically very useful as a Globetrotter, but Hawkins was surprised to realize just how effective it was for him in competitive games. It wasn't just that he had a solid grip on the ball to prevent turnovers or that he could use it to do sneaky passing. It also allowed him to keep his other arm free to battle with people. He was going up for rebounds with one hand so he could use the other hand and arm for...other stuff. He did this in part because he was always a skinny guy for his height (and especially his length), and so while this helped his agility he was vulnerable to brute force.

But while Hawkins took this from his Globetrotters game and it helped make him a completely unique player in the world upon his return to the competitive ranks, he had a deep belief and fear that playing for the Globetrotters was making him poorly suited to playing against serious players. Most of the signature Globetrotter moves couldn't be done against real defenders, and the Globetrotters themselves weren't ever really playing defense themselves.

And I do think this tied in to why Hawkins got off to a bit of a slow start in his first year in the ABA before catching fire and utterly dominated.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#10 » by penbeast0 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 5:29 pm

1. Horace Grant A long, very good career guy is next on my list. He never graduated to "great" in my book but made very consistent contributions both as a very good (not great) defender and good offensive player. Grant's advantage comes from his superior passing and turnover economy.
2. Jeff Hornacek -- The Jazz offense improved so much when they added Hornacek to give them a 3rd competent offensive player next to Stockton/Malone; that impressed me a lot.
3. Sidney Moncrief: Sidney Moncrief v. Grant Hill v. James Worthy (Using per 100 stats to lessen era/minute differentials)

Moncrief 5 year prime: ~36.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5 r, 6.1 a, ~.590 ts%, 4 1st team All-Defense, 1 2nd team, 2xDPOY, 1 1st All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA. 2 years pre-prime, 3 hobbled years post prime (ignoring years with less than 50 games played other than 1999). Surprisingly his rebounding per 100 is actually equal to Worthy's.

Hill 6 year prime: ~29 mpg, 30 p, 11 r, 8.5 a, .540ts%, 1 1st team All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA, 6 solid post prime seasons. Hill was the focus of the Detroit offense; both of the others played on deep teams that spread the ball around. He was also the primary distributor while the others were more secondary distributors or finishers.

Worthy 7 year prime (85-91): ~35.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5r, 4.5 a, ~.570ts%, 2 x All-NBA 3rd, 1FMVP, I have his 1st 2 years as pre-prime as his scoring load was significantly less and his last 3 years as post-prime as his efficiency dropped significantly. The healthiest of the bunch, probably the lowest RS peaks. His scoring volume may have been hurt a bit by all the talent on the Lakers, on the other hand, playing with Magic (as compared to say Brian Winters or Lindsey Hunter at PG) probably helped his efficiency.

I have these three as:

1. Moncrief -- his prime was shorter but a lot stronger. He was one of the NBA's all time great defenders, the others were both solid but not outstanding, plus offensively he's at least arguably the strongest of the 3 with the highest shooting efficiency at equivalent scoring volume. The monster defense for 5 years is worth more to me than 1 or 2 years of extra years of equivalent offense and decent defense and the extra role player years don't move the needle that much in comparison.

2. Hill's case is based on his rebounding and playmaking from the 3, though his scoring efficiency was less, plus his long post-prime career where he reinvented himself as a 3 and D guy. The rebounding and playmaking is certainly an argument in his favor, he rebounds significantly better as a 3/2 guy than the 3/4 Worthy and gets more assists than the 2/1 Moncrief (though a lot of that is role). His career outside his prime is better than Worthy's and significantly better than Moncrief's, enough to make it close but not enough for me to put him higher.

3. Worthy is the lowest of the 3, an efficient scorer but despite playing a lot of PF, a weak rebounder. He was blessed to play with the most talent around him and thus had a stronger playoff resume, his case is based on that, particularly his FMVP season. His career was actually shorter than Hill's in number of games despite his better health. 926 games to 1026 for Hill (and 767 for Moncrief).

Let's look at those playoff numbers in their primes again using per 100 possessions:

Worthy ~39mpg 28p, 7r, 4.5a, .580 ts%
Hill ~38mpg, 32.7p, 11r, 9a, .520ts% (only 13 games to avoid using 00 when he was injured)
Moncrief ~40mpg, 25p, 7r, 5.5a, .575ts%

I don't think this makes Worthy's case appreciably stronger although he certainly played a lot more playoff games than the other two due to his situation in LA.

Looking at the list from 2017, the following names have not been voted in yet:

71 Sidney Moncrief
73 Grant Hill
75 Chris Bosh
80. Dan Issel
82. Worthy
83. Webber
86. H. Grant
87. Brand
88. T. Porter
89. Cheeks
90. Anthony
91. T. Hardaway
92. Sikma
93. Cunningham
94. Blaylock
95. C. Walker
97. Divac
98. Walton
99. Hawkins
100. Mel Daniels

I am looking at Grant Hill, Damon Lilliard, Terry Porter, James Worthy, Connie Hawkins, Chris Bosh, Dave DeBussschere, Dan Issel, Dennis Johnson, Gus Williams, Bill Walton, Jokic in roughly that order.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#11 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:32 pm

83. Dave DeBusschere
-10 yr prime where he averages 16.5/11.3/2.9 on ts+ of 96
-6x all defense 1st team, 1x all nba 2nd team
-Finishes top 11 in mvp voting from 72-74 while playing for Knicks teams that win lots of games after Reed has injuries
-Big part of two Knicks title teams
-Known for being gritty defender/rebounder and great team guy who also could hit big shots in the playoffs

84. Neil Johnston

-Only a 6 year prime but during which he led the league in win shares 5 straight years(even while playing on a 12 win team), scoring 3 straight years, ts% twice, rebounding once and had ts add over 250 5 straight years(which is incredible).
-5x all nba(4x 1st team, 1x 2nd)
-Co-led the Warriors to a title with Arizin in 56. So in short I think the argument could be made that from 53-58 he was a top 3-5 player in the league every year and had a span of dominance which few players have matched statistically. Also, imo is more athletic than most people probably give him credit for with good length to go with good handles for a center and solid outside shooting(more so for his era).

85. Billy Cunningham
-Averaged 21.2/10.4/4.3 during 11 year career on career ts+ of 101
-5x all nba/aba(4x 1st team, 1x 2nd team)
-4x top 10 in mvp voting(high of 1st in aba, high of 3rd in nba)
-1x nba champ
-joins 35 win Carolina team in the aba and the next year(73) with him they win 57 games and lose in 7 in the conf finals
-from 68-73 playoffs averaged 24.8/12.1/4.5 on ts of 54%(roughly +2.5% league avg)

86. Worthy
87. Lucas
88. Cheeks
89. Hill
90. Mullin
91. Lillard
92. DJohnson
93. Porter
94. Melo
95. Issel
96. Butler
97. Moncrief
98. Jokic
99. Dumars
100. Griffin

others: Webber>Grant>Bosh>Bellamy>Hornacek>Price>Walton>Williams>Hawkins
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#12 » by Odinn21 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:44 pm

I'm getting so spoiled mates. Two in a row with my #1 votes getting in. :lol:

83. Grant Hill
In terms of prime duration, Marion has an advantage over Moncrief and Hill but Marion played around 550-600 games in his prime and Hill played 450ish game (though he'd be closer to 500 with a full season in 1998-99). Between Marion and Hill, Marion has better prime duration and better overall longevity but Hill feels too good to be denied with that many games on that higher quality.

84. Sidney Moncrief
I have Moncrief, Bosh, Grant, Cunningham very close but I think I have Moncrief closer to Greer and Hill. It feels natural to me have him on my ballot right now.

85. Billy Cunningham
I initially thought of Bosh for this spot but Cunningham was also a borderline superstar, I think Cunningham as a player was on the same level as Bosh but he was on that level in a time being on that level was harder and more of an outlier. Also Cunningham's total prime duration, despite being less, comes off as bigger than Bosh's with a consideration for era standards.
Though this is definitely open to discussion and I'd like to get some feedbacks on Cunningham vs. players with traction already in Bosh, Grant, Bellamy and Issel.

C. Bosh > H. Grant > G. Williams > W. Bellamy > D. Issel > D. DeBusschere > D. Lillard > T. Porter > N. Jokic > C. Hawkins > B. Walton > N. Archibald > C. Hawkins > N. Johnston > J. Hornacek > D. Johnson

---

Changes so far compared to the previous project;

1. LeBron James (+2)
2. Michael Jordan (-1)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (-1)
4. Bill Russell (0)
5. Tim Duncan (0)
6. Wilt Chamberlain (0)
7. Magic Johnson (0)
8. Shaquille O'Neal (0)
9. Hakeem Olajuwon (0)
10. Larry Bird (0)
11. Kevin Garnett (+1)
12. Kobe Bryant (-1)
13. Jerry West (+2)
14. Oscar Robertson (-1)
15. Dirk Nowitzki (+2)
16. Karl Malone (-2)
17. David Robinson (+1)
18. Julius Erving (-2)
19. George Mikan (+6)
20. Moses Malone (0)
21. Charles Barkley (-2)
22. Kevin Durant (+6)
23. Chris Paul (0)
24. Stephen Curry (+5)
25. Bob Pettit (-1)
26. John Stockton (-5)
27. Steve Nash (-1)
28. Dwyane Wade (-6)
29. Patrick Ewing (-2)
30. Walt Frazier (+8)
31. James Harden (+35)
32. Scottie Pippen (-2)
33. Elgin Baylor (-1)
34. John Havlicek (-3)
35. Rick Barry (-1)
36. Jason Kidd (+1)
37. George Gervin (+4)
38. Clyde Drexler (-5)
39. Reggie Miller (+3)
40. Artis Gilmore (-4)
41. Dolph Schayes (+4)
42. Kawhi Leonard (+54)
43. Isiah Thomas (-4)
44. Russell Westbrook (+7)
45. Willis Reed (+11)
46. Chauncey Billups (+9)
47. Paul Pierce (-4)
48. Gary Payton (-13)
49. Pau Gasol (-1)
50. Ray Allen (-3)
51. Dwight Howard (-7)
52. Kevin McHale (-12)
53. Manu Ginobili (+1)
54. Dave Cowens (+6)
55. Adrian Dantley (+4)
56. Sam Jones (+12)
57. Bob Lanier (0)
58. Dikembe Mutombo (-5)
59. Elvin Hayes (+2)
60. Paul Arizin (+11)
61. Anthony Davis (+39*; was not on the list)
62. Robert Parish (-12)
63. Bob Cousy (-17)
64. Alonzo Mourning (-12)
65. Nate Thurmond (+2)
66. Allen Iverson (-8)
67. Tracy McGrady (-2)
68. Alex English (-4)
69. Vince Carter (-6)
70. Wes Unseld (-21)
71. Tony Parker (+5)
72. Rasheed Wallace (+12)
73. Dominique Wilkins (-11)
74. Giannis Antetokounmpo (+26*; was not on the list)
75. Kevin Johnson (-6)
76. Bobby Jones (-2)
77. Bob McAdoo (-7)
78. Shawn Marion (-1)
79. Dennis Rodman (+6)
80. Larry Nance (+1)
81. Ben Wallace (-2)
82. Hal Greer (-4)

Top 10 biggest drops;
Wes Unseld 49 > 70 (-21)
Bob Cousy 46 > 63 (-17)
Gary Payton 35 > 48 (-13)
Alonzo Mourning 52 > 64 (-12)
Robert Parish 50 > 62 (-12)
Kevin McHale 40 > 52 (-12)
Dominique Wilkins 62 > 73 (-11)
Allen Iverson 58 > 66 (-8)
Bob McAdoo 70 > 77 (-7)
Dwight Howard 44 > 51 (-7)

Top 10 biggest gains;
Kawhi Leonard 96 > 42 (+54)
Anthony Davis 100* > 61 (+39)
James Harden 66 > 31 (+35)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 100* > 74 (+26)
Sam Jones 68 > 56 (+12)
Rasheed Wallace 84 > 72 (+12)
Willis Reed 56 > 45 (+11)
Paul Arizin 71 > 60 (+11)
Chauncey Billups 55 > 46 (+9)
Walt Frazier 38 > 30 (+8)
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#13 » by trex_8063 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:26 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
84. Neil Johnston

-Only a 6 year prime but during which he led the league in win shares 5 straight years(even while playing on a 12 win team), scoring 3 straight years, ts% twice, rebounding once and had ts add over 250 5 straight years(which is incredible).
-5x all nba(4x 1st team, 1x 2nd)
-Co-led the Warriors to a title with Arizin in 56. So in short I think the argument could be made that from 53-58 he was a top 3-5 player in the league every year and had a span of dominance which few players have matched statistically. Also, imo is more athletic than most people probably give him credit for with good length to go with good handles for a center and solid outside shooting(more so for his era)..



Do you have links to video of him? Johnston is one I'd LOVE to have some eye-test on, but I'm not aware of any game footage [or even highlights] that include him. If you have any sources for this, please share.

I would LOVE to have full-game footage of the '56 Finals: could get an eye on not only Johnston, but prime Arizin, prime George Yardley, prime Larry Foust (I do have one full game of eye-test on Larry Foust from '60), as well as notables like Tom Gola, Jack George, and Joe Grabowski.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#14 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:41 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Do you have links to video of him? Johnston is one I'd LOVE to have some eye-test on, but I'm not aware of any game footage [or even highlights] that include him. If you have any sources for this, please share.

I would LOVE to have full-game footage of the '56 Finals: could get an eye on not only Johnston, but prime Arizin, prime George Yardley, prime Larry Foust (I do have one full game of eye-test on Larry Foust from '60), as well as notables like Tom Gola, Jack George, and Joe Grabowski.


Yes, I was looking around last week and found some. I was more impressed than I thought I would be tbh. Let me go see if I can find it again.

That one has some video of him throughout it. Sometimes it's a bit hard to tell which guy is him though.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:17 pm

Cavsfansince84 wrote:
Yes, I was looking around last week and found some. I was more impressed than I thought I would be tbh. Let me go see if I can find it again.

That one has some video of him throughout it. Sometimes it's a bit hard to tell which guy is him though.


Ah, thank you. It's an interesting biographical.
Sadly, almost no footage of Johnston himself. The vast majority of the clips are just random peers from that era [several of them actually from the early 60s, just AFTER Johnston's career]. There were just 2-3 plays with him: showing him passing the ball [simple ball reversal], a hook shot in the lane, one take to the rim. I think that was about it.

Still, I love to see stuff like this. I wish the NBA would make release of more, even if it's for a small charge. If I could gain access [say thru the NBA app] to streaming of old games for a small fee, I would do so; I know others feel the same. Some posters [like 70sFan] HAVE networked with the league and paid for purchase of old games.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#16 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:41 pm

Edited. Brought up something negative we don't need to talk about.
Last edited by Doctor MJ on Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:43 am, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Too negative.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#17 » by trex_8063 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:18 pm

Thru post #16:

Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Chris Bosh - 1 (trex_8063)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)
Dave DeBusschere - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Horace Grant - 1 (penbeast0)
Damian Lillard - 1 (Doctor MJ)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Grant Hill - 1 (Odinn21)


About 23-24 hours left for this one.
A reminder to include an ordered listing that includes everyone listed above (plus Jeff Hornacek) at a minimum, if you haven’t already.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

Ambrose wrote:.

Baski wrote:.

bidofo wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

DQuinn1575 wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dutchball97 wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

Franco wrote:.

Gregoire wrote:.

Hal14 wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

iggymcfrack wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

Joe Malburg wrote:.

Joey Wheeler wrote:.

Jordan Syndrome wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

lebron3-14-3 wrote:.

limbo wrote:.

Magic Is Magic wrote:.

Matzer wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Odinn21 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

O_6 wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

PistolPeteJR wrote:.

[quote=”sansterre”].[/quote]
Senior wrote:.

SeniorWalker wrote:.

SHAQ32 wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

Tim Lehrbach wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

Whopper_Sr wrote:.

ZeppelinPage wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

876Stephen wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#18 » by sansterre » Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:21 pm

Okay, all of the new guys are included in the rankings now.

1. Jeff Hornacek - There are simply not metrics that he looks bad in. His BackPicks BPM, Win Shares CORP and VORP CORP are all well above average for this group. His PIPM is a little underwhelming, though still above average. And his peak WOWYR of +5.2 is one of the best in this group. Surprising, right? And yet, he's weirdly excellent.

Let's imagine that we looked for strong (but not dominant) shooting guard seasons. We're looking for a 2nd/3rd option, so sub 22% usage. He needs to break an OBPM of +2, TS above 57% and post PPX above 22. But we want him to be a solid passer who doesn't make mistakes, so AST% > 22% and TO% below 12.5%. That's a pretty specific player I just asked for. But Hornacek had six of those seasons; nobody else had more than 1. What if I loosened the terms? If I allowed usage rates higher than 22% I'd get Jordan and Kyrie tying with him. If I dropped the shooting efficiency requirement Fat Lever had four of those seasons. If I remove the assist requirement Hornacek had 8 seasons, with Reggie Miller and J.J. Reddick having 5 each. My point is, I'll stipulate that Hornacek was only an average usage player. But within those constraints he 1) scored efficiently, 2) passed well (or at least for volume), 3) turned the ball over very little (Assist:TO of 2.5 for much of his career) and 4) overall contributed to offenses at a solid level. And he did it for a long freaking time. He never really had a "Peak" because his seasons were metronomically excellent. He put up four straight 3+ VORP seasons in Phoenix, then another five in Utah. So if you're trying to remember Hornacek's time when he dominated the league . . . you won't find it. He was merely really good for a very long time.

And he kept showing up on strong teams. His age 25 season (1989) was when the Suns took a big step forward. Was he the one driving it? No, KJ was. But Johnson surely benefited from the spacing that Hornacek provided. And by VORP, Hornacek was the 2nd best player on both the '89 and '90 Suns (two teams that made my Top 100 list). In '92 The Suns posted a +5.68 RSRS with Hornacek as their best player (according to VORP). From 1992 to 1993 the Suns replaced Hornacek with Danny Ainge, and replaced Tim Perry and Andrew Lang with Charles Barkley and Cedric Ceballos. And the team's RSRS improved by . . . +0.59. Perry + Lang -> Barkely + Ceballos is clearly a monster upgrade. And Danny Ainge was no pushover. Was losing Hornacek a bigger blow than we thought? I don't want to overplay it; KJ missed almost half the year and that was clearly a driving force. And I'm not trying to sell you on the idea that Hornacek was a Barkley-level player. He wasn't. But even with KJ missing some time, you'd think the jump from '92 to '93 would be bigger than it was. Unless Hornacek was actually better than anyone realized.

And then Utah. Here are their seasons starting at '93:

1993: 47-35, +1.74 RSRS
1994: 53-29, +4.10 RSRS
1995: 60-22, +7.76 RSRS
1996: 55-27, +6.25 RSRS
1997: 64-18, +7.97 RSRS

They acquired Hornacek in the middle of one of those seasons; any guesses which?

Look. This is all slightly circumstantial. There are other factors that explain why the Jazz went from being decent to being the best team in the conference besides Jeff Hornacek. But Hornacek was clearly a big part of it.

Naysayers would argue that Hornacek was a bad first option. This is totally true. He had no business running your offense as the primary ball handler. But as long as he wasn't asked to take more than 20% of the team's shots he'd space the floor, can shots at a well-above average rate, pass well, not screw anything up and generate a fair number of steals. And the combination of these things had a consistent and genuine impact, even if no one of them is particularly remarkable.

We don't have AuRPM for his whole career, but here are his numbers with the Jazz starting at Age 31:

+3.4, +2.8, +5.9, +5.2, +4.5, +3.1

Two +5 seasons toward the tail-end of his career? That's damned impressive.

2. Terry Porter - Porter is a weird mix of peak and longevity. He played 35k minutes, with 13 different seasons posting higher than a +1 OBPM, and 9 different seasons posting higher than a +2 OBPM. And he retained fair value even late in his career, posting back-to-back +4 AuRPM seasons for the Spurs at the turn of the century. He's 55th in offensive win shares all-time, and 45th in VORP all-time. Most metrics really like Porter; he's more than one standard deviation above the mean in both PIPM and VORP, and his win shares and BackPicks ratings are still well above average.

Porter was a weird sort of tweeter-guard. He rarely posted higher than league average usage rates, but made up for it with efficiency (consistently scoring in the +4 to +6% range) passing well (assist% in the 25-35% range) and being a fair ballhawk (ten different seasons at 2%+ steals). His seven-year peak:

19.9% Usage, +4.5% rTS, 30.5% Ast, 2.2% Steals, 15.4% TO, +3.3 OBPM, +3.9 BPM

It's good, but not great (though again, it's a strong peak combined with a lot of longevity). But in the playoffs he got better. For his nine-year playoff peak (89-97):

20.2% Usage, +7.3% rTS, 26.1% Ast, 1.6% Steals, 12.2% TO, +4.5 OBPM, +4.8 BPM

So in the playoffs (and in fairness, I'm taking slightly different years), Porter slowed as a distributor and grew into an extremely efficient scorer. A nine-year playoff peak with an OBPM at +4.5? That's pretty nice. I'll give you a hint on this; McHale didn't have a nine-year playoff peak at that level (though select seasons were certainly better).

Regular season Terry Porter? He was a strong player with a decently long career and a good peak. But playoff Terry Porter? Playoff Terry Porter was *really* good. Do you know how many players increase both usage and shooting against playoff defenses? Not a lot of them. But Terry Porter is absolutely on that list.

3. Horace Grant - don't have time to write out the support here but it's coming. At some point.


Hornacek > Terry Porter > Horace Grant > D.Green? > Kyle Lowry > Eddie Jones > Bosh > Bellamy > Z.Beaty > Jokic > A.Kirilenko > Hill > M.Cheeks > B.Walton > P.George > Webber > LaMarcus Aldridge > D.Issel > A.Iguodala > Schrempf > Moncrief > G.Williams > J.Worthy > C.Anthony > Lucas > Cunningham > A.Hardaway > D.DeBusschere >J.Butler > M. Johnson > D.Lillard > B.King > D.Johnson > C.Hawkins > M.Price > C.Mullin > N.Johnston > K.Irving > K.Thompson > Archibald
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#19 » by penbeast0 » Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:45 pm

penbeast0 wrote:1. Changing my post to add Damon Lilliard here. A lot of these guys are close but Lilliard's numbers are really impressive and he's led Portland to a lot of years of contention. I hadn't realized how long his prime was.

2. Horace Grant A long, very good career guy is next on my list. He never graduated to "great" in my book but made very consistent contributions both as a very good (not great) defender and good offensive player. Grant's advantage comes from his superior passing and turnover economy.
3. Jeff Hornacek -- The Jazz offense improved so much when they added Hornacek to give them a 3rd competent offensive player next to Stockton/Malone; that impressed me a lot.
4. Sidney Moncrief: Sidney Moncrief v. Grant Hill v. James Worthy (Using per 100 stats to lessen era/minute differentials)

Moncrief 5 year prime: ~36.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5 r, 6.1 a, ~.590 ts%, 4 1st team All-Defense, 1 2nd team, 2xDPOY, 1 1st All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA. 2 years pre-prime, 3 hobbled years post prime (ignoring years with less than 50 games played other than 1999). Surprisingly his rebounding per 100 is actually equal to Worthy's.

Hill 6 year prime: ~29 mpg, 30 p, 11 r, 8.5 a, .540ts%, 1 1st team All-NBA, 4 2nd All-NBA, 6 solid post prime seasons. Hill was the focus of the Detroit offense; both of the others played on deep teams that spread the ball around. He was also the primary distributor while the others were more secondary distributors or finishers.

Worthy 7 year prime (85-91): ~35.5 mpg, 27 p, 7.5r, 4.5 a, ~.570ts%, 2 x All-NBA 3rd, 1FMVP, I have his 1st 2 years as pre-prime as his scoring load was significantly less and his last 3 years as post-prime as his efficiency dropped significantly. The healthiest of the bunch, probably the lowest RS peaks. His scoring volume may have been hurt a bit by all the talent on the Lakers, on the other hand, playing with Magic (as compared to say Brian Winters or Lindsey Hunter at PG) probably helped his efficiency.

I have these three as:

1. Moncrief -- his prime was shorter but a lot stronger. He was one of the NBA's all time great defenders, the others were both solid but not outstanding, plus offensively he's at least arguably the strongest of the 3 with the highest shooting efficiency at equivalent scoring volume. The monster defense for 5 years is worth more to me than 1 or 2 years of extra years of equivalent offense and decent defense and the extra role player years don't move the needle that much in comparison.

2. Hill's case is based on his rebounding and playmaking from the 3, though his scoring efficiency was less, plus his long post-prime career where he reinvented himself as a 3 and D guy. The rebounding and playmaking is certainly an argument in his favor, he rebounds significantly better as a 3/2 guy than the 3/4 Worthy and gets more assists than the 2/1 Moncrief (though a lot of that is role). His career outside his prime is better than Worthy's and significantly better than Moncrief's, enough to make it close but not enough for me to put him higher.

3. Worthy is the lowest of the 3, an efficient scorer but despite playing a lot of PF, a weak rebounder. He was blessed to play with the most talent around him and thus had a stronger playoff resume, his case is based on that, particularly his FMVP season. His career was actually shorter than Hill's in number of games despite his better health. 926 games to 1026 for Hill (and 767 for Moncrief).

Let's look at those playoff numbers in their primes again using per 100 possessions:

Worthy ~39mpg 28p, 7r, 4.5a, .580 ts%
Hill ~38mpg, 32.7p, 11r, 9a, .520ts% (only 13 games to avoid using 00 when he was injured)
Moncrief ~40mpg, 25p, 7r, 5.5a, .575ts%

I don't think this makes Worthy's case appreciably stronger although he certainly played a lot more playoff games than the other two due to his situation in LA.

Looking at the list from 2017, the following names have not been voted in yet:

71 Sidney Moncrief
73 Grant Hill
75 Chris Bosh
80. Dan Issel
82. Worthy
83. Webber
86. H. Grant
87. Brand
88. T. Porter
89. Cheeks
90. Anthony
91. T. Hardaway
92. Sikma
93. Cunningham
94. Blaylock
95. C. Walker
97. Divac
98. Walton
99. Hawkins
100. Mel Daniels

I am looking at Grant Hill, Terry Porter, James Worthy, Connie Hawkins, Chris Bosh, Dave DeBussschere, Dan Issel, Dennis Johnson, Gus Williams, Bill Walton, Jokic in roughly that order.
“Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination,” Andrew Lang.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #83 

Post#20 » by trex_8063 » Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:22 pm

Thru post #19:

Damian Lillard - 2 (Doctor MJ, penbeast0)
Nikola Jokic - 1 (Dutchball97)
Chris Bosh - 1 (trex_8063)
Jeff Hornacek - 1 (sansterre)
Dennis Johnson - 1 (Hal14)
Dave DeBusschere - 1 (Cavsfansince84)
Bill Walton - 1 (HeartBreakKid)
Grant Hill - 1 (Odinn21)


9 votes spread over 8 candidates, making Lillard a non-majority default winner [which will need to be validated against everyone else via Condorect method]....

Lillard leads DJ and Hornacek by an 8-1
He leads Walton and Jokic 6-3 each
He leads DeBusschere by a margin of 5-3, with 1 unknown (Hal14)
EDIT [2 days later]: I totally forgot to run his Condorcet vs Bosh [my own top pick!]. Luckily, he leads Bosh 5-4 in Condorcet, so nothing changes as to the outcome of this thread.

He TRAILS Grant Hill by a margin of 2-6, with 1 unknown (Hal14)

So we will enter a runoff between Lillard and Hill. Given the size of the margin, I think it unlikely that Lillard overcomes this deficit, but as it's our protocol, we'll give him the chance as he is the default winner.
To avoid futile delays, we have to rule to end the runoff after 12 hours if a candidate still trails by 2+ votes; I may even jump the gun by a few hours if he's trailing by 3-4 votes or more after eight hours or something like that [unless someone strongly objects].

So at this time I'd like Hal14 to provide an ordered list of all eight of the above candidates PLUS Horace Grant [and anyone else you'd care to add in there].
Otherwise, we're looking for additional runoff votes from the existing voter panel.

Spoiler:
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