Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1261 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:29 pm

sansterre wrote:
Spoiler:
Fair, and we're clearly into a semantic area.

My understanding of Ben's concept of portability is that it's purely premised on "how likely is a player like this to be on a championship-level team?"

Some players are so good that they'd be amazing additions no matter what (because they'd simply replace the system and it would always be an upgrade). But there aren't a ton of those.

For everyone else you have to have some kind of synergy with strong rosters, because if you don't then you have pretty low odds of being on a championship team. '17 Westbrook and '01 Iverson are two fantastic examples of low-portability players. They're both really fantastic at taking weak rosters and making them playoff-worthy, but adding them to a roster that's already playoff-worthy probably gets nowhere near the same return on their minutes.

Let us imagine comparing '17 Westbrook to '04 Garnett. Put them each on a garbage roster and they'd each probably carry the team to the playoffs or close to it. But if you were to add Garnett to a 50-win team they're pretty much instant championship contenders/favorites, while adding Westbrook to a 50-win team doesn't have the same yield.

Put another way, I read Ben's "portability" as a "ceiling-raising" skill, while what you're talking about is floor-raising.

I think the reason that Ben likes portability so much is that to be championship-probable, a low-portability player needs to be on an ATG-level. But a high-portability player can be more championship-probable than a comparable low-portability player, because he can synergize better with good teammates. Or so the theory goes.

I think hand-wringing about portability for Jordan/LeBron/Nash/Magic-level players is kind of ridiculous, because you *want* those guys running things. But other players have value because they'd work anywhere. Look at Bill Walton. Which decent team wouldn't explode when you have an efficient-scoring (but not high usage) big, that passes well, and with ATG rebounding and defense? Imagine swapping KG in for Kareem on the '71 Bucks, or in for Shaq on the '00 to '04 Lakers (you'd probably have to swap Grant/Horry for a comparable center with slightly higher usage). I'm not at all convinced that either would be much of a downgrade for that team. Pair KG with a #1 option (Kobe) or on a deep offensive roster (Oscar/McGlocklin/Dandridge/Smith) and he's money. Hell, imagine a universe where KG shows up on the '80 Lakers and they run Nixon at the point and have Kareem and KG in the frontcourt. Are we entirely convinced that this wouldn't have worked? Yeah, their offense would have been worse, but their defense would've been pretty sick.

But as a Jordanesque-player, who can floor-raise so hard that he can take a team of limited scorers to the promised land, KG definitely falls short.


Thanks for this response. This makes a lot of sense to me and I'm following his concept better as a result. And would agree with basically all of that more or less.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1262 » by Snakebites » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:38 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Snakebites wrote:KG is less portable?

What is the basis for that assertion? That he didn’t win it all with Sam Cassell and post-prime Latrell? Or is it that you think Wally Sczcetbiak was the second banana he should have meshed better with?


I understand my takes on KG are unpopular(and quite possibly really really wrong). But cmon now. You know this isn't what I'm saying.

I've said it 100x or more on this board but I'll say it again here -- the 04 Wolves are a testament to KG's greatness. I'm really high on Sam Cassell. I hate hate hate hate that 80% of the time his name is posted on this board, its preceded by "35 year old" in an effort to diminish him and I am so grateful you put no disclaimers on him here. He was fantastic not only that season--clearly the best of his career, but also as a young player on those Rocket champions, in LA and with the Bucks--all teams who not coincidentally had their best success in forever with him.

But Sam Cassell was maybe the 8-12th best player in the league that year. Spreewell was more name than game to use a Smitty saying. They had some solid role players, but basically all KG needed was a high level perimeter offensive threat and suddenly the Wolves were one of the best 3 or 4 teams in the entire league.

My argument has never been that KG needs overwhelming talent to win with, though I do think he needs more than some of the players he is consistently viewed as an equal to or superior to. Dirk for instance never played with a single player as good as 04 Sam Cassell in his entire career. Duncan won a title the year before KG's deep run with less talent.

But KG wasn't anchoring elite defenses in Minnesota and he wasn't good enough as a scorer to steal series in the playoffs offensively. I think those players who were anchoring an elite unit on either end make it easier to build contenders around--thus in my definition of portability they are more portable even as they are less versatile. Because having the anchor is the hardest piece to find.


You probably shouldn't assume that everyone who reads your replies in this thread has read the other 100x negative takes you've had with KG. I was just going off what I read in THIS post, where you called him "the least portable".

Sam Cassell had one great year (bringing in his age when I didn't makes me think you're trying to saddle me with arguments made by other people, btw) with the Wolves before the injury bug got him and the Wolves eventually moved him. He was a fringe All-NBA level performer. Nothing more, nothing less. And KG's team WAS great with him that year. That ONE season. And are we really knocking KG for ONLY making it to the WCF in that brutal conference the one time the Wolves actually managed to put a decent team around him? Cassell is a very good in that season, but not so great that 58 wins and a WCF bid should in any way be considered a disappointing result with him as your second best player. That you think he's better than any player Dirk ever played with also makes me think you have unpopular takes on either Cassell or Nash, too.

And I'm pretty down on Spree, even in that season. His advanced stats are pretty abysmal, and the Wolves depth wasn't all that impressive that year either.

If you want to argue that 2003 Duncan had a better run than 2004 KG I think there's a strong case to be made there, but I think you're really overrating the support KG saw in his time in Minnesota. 2004 was the best it ever got for him by a really healthy margin, too.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1263 » by KTM_2813 » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:39 pm

sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:There is no playoff argument though. The sample sizes are too small.

Even a single regular season campaign has a significant amount of noise let alone a stretch of 20ish games.

Of course, we are looking at a pattern over multiple postseasons, which between them constitute 80+ games pretty easily, longer than the length of a season.

Then again, if you're arguing that the 2001 Lakers weren't that good, that Jordan was pretty lucky to win six Finals and that championships are a ridiculous standard for evaluating players in any way, I can totally see that.

The sample sizes for playoffs are, after all, too small.


It's a catch-22, isn't it? The most important games are in the playoffs. The entire point of any season is to crown a champion in the playoffs. The most valuable players are the guys who make the most impact in the playoffs. Therefore, the postseason is the time of year that needs to be evaluated the most. Unfortunately, the sample size of any given postseason is so small that results are extremely noisy and often unreliable, which makes that time of year harder to evaluate than the regular season, which becomes more and more meaningless by the day. :oops:

I think that the only thing we can do is combine playoff statistics with film study, and make the best guesses we can in order to reach the most accurate conclusions we can. I'm not a fan of evaluating the postseason based on the box score or +/- alone, but I'm also not a fan of completely throwing those numbers out the window.
sansterre wrote:The success of a star's season is:

Individual performance + Teammate performance - Opposition +/- Luck
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1264 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:45 pm

Snakebites wrote:You probably shouldn't assume that everyone who reads your replies in this thread has read the other 100x negative takes you've had with KG. I was just going off what I read in THIS post, where you called him "the least portable".

Sam Cassell had one great year (bringing in his age when I didn't makes me think you're trying to saddle me with arguments made by other people, btw)


It's clear I offended you and I want to apologize for that. I wasn't expecting you to be familiar with my every post on KG, but I did think you knew me well enough as a poster to know that I would never seriously argue he should be contending with Wally Z as his running mate.

And I wasn't trying to saddle you with that Cassell argument--in fact I went out of my way to thank you for not doing so.

Anyway I'm going to drop this because I'm afraid I'll cause more offense and I really don't want to. Plus sansterre helped me understand Ben's point so I don't need to harp on KG any further since I would agree with his notion of KG's portability versus my own understanding of it.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1265 » by VanWest82 » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:46 pm

falcolombardi wrote:i have a hard time following why players should be penalized for how their teams play WITHOUT them

if players cannot find a way to work without their star on court maybe is because they are not that good or they only cam be good im secondary roles? how is that the fault of the guy who is not in the court?


It's not a penalty. It's just an undeniable secondary effect of their genius as play makers / offensive hubs. It's unavoidable unless you're going to limit their genius within a constrained system which is suboptimal if the player is transcendent.

If players cannot find a way to work without their star player who makes all the decisions, and who makes reads and plays that no one else has the ability to make, that's a likely outcome.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1266 » by falcolombardi » Thu Apr 15, 2021 7:53 pm

KTM_2813 wrote:
sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:There is no playoff argument though. The sample sizes are too small.

Even a single regular season campaign has a significant amount of noise let alone a stretch of 20ish games.

Of course, we are looking at a pattern over multiple postseasons, which between them constitute 80+ games pretty easily, longer than the length of a season.

Then again, if you're arguing that the 2001 Lakers weren't that good, that Jordan was pretty lucky to win six Finals and that championships are a ridiculous standard for evaluating players in any way, I can totally see that.

The sample sizes for playoffs are, after all, too small.


It's a catch-22, isn't it? The most important games are in the playoffs. The entire point of any season is to crown a champion in the playoffs. The most valuable players are the guys who make the most impact in the playoffs. Therefore, the postseason is the time of year that needs to be evaluated the most. Unfortunately, the sample size of any given postseason is so small that results are extremely noisy and often unreliable, which makes that time of year harder to evaluate than the regular season, which becomes more and more meaningless by the day. :oops:

I think that the only thing we can do is combine playoff statistics with film study, and make the best guesses we can in order to reach the most accurate conclusions we can. I'm not a fan of evaluating the postseason based on the box score or +/- alone, but I'm also not a fan of completely throwing those numbers out the window.

plus-minus stats have the same issue in general

they are worthless for 1 game but very relevant over long stretches

player scores 50 one game but his plus minus is negstive? noise

player averages 30 for the year but his season plus-minus is subpar? now that is worrysome

plus minus is unvaluable as a guide to who is actually impactful beyond box score

players like prime westbrook (unefficient) or lowry (low ish numbers) were rightfully (imo) propped up by advanced plus-minus stats

so evaluating a player whole post season career which overall is longer than a full regular season (in some players cases, more like 2-3 regular seasons) should be a big enough sample size
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1267 » by Snakebites » Thu Apr 15, 2021 8:55 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
Snakebites wrote:You probably shouldn't assume that everyone who reads your replies in this thread has read the other 100x negative takes you've had with KG. I was just going off what I read in THIS post, where you called him "the least portable".

Sam Cassell had one great year (bringing in his age when I didn't makes me think you're trying to saddle me with arguments made by other people, btw)


It's clear I offended you and I want to apologize for that. I wasn't expecting you to be familiar with my every post on KG, but I did think you knew me well enough as a poster to know that I would never seriously argue he should be contending with Wally Z as his running mate.

And I wasn't trying to saddle you with that Cassell argument--in fact I went out of my way to thank you for not doing so.

Anyway I'm going to drop this because I'm afraid I'll cause more offense and I really don't want to. Plus sansterre helped me understand Ben's point so I don't need to harp on KG any further since I would agree with his notion of KG's portability versus my own understanding of it.


Hey, if it came off as me taking it personally that’s my fault.

The Wally Sczerbiak thing was more a sarcastic remark to illustrate the generally poor job the Wolves did building around KG at the time- not my belief that you were referring to him. I assumed (and correctly I think) that you were referring to his 2004 campaign with Cassell and Spree- which I pointed out was a single year. Other than that- he was mostly surrounded by poor offensive spacing and uninspired defenders due to a lack of first round draft choices and abysmal cap situations due to KG’s pre-lockout Max-deal.

We can cherry-pick years all we want, but I do think it’s pretty undeniable that, in the 5 or so years (2003-2007) that most would consider KG’s statistical prime that few, if any major superstars had support as weak as he did. So to jump on the one year he had decent (not great) teammates, point out that all they did that year was reach the WCF in a loaded West with 58 wins, and use that against him feels unfair. Especially when one considers just how much better that good (not great) supporting cast was than anything else they ever put with KG.

You also brought up 2011 Dirk. I realize you say Cassell would be the second best player on that team, but that’s cherry-picking too to only look at the second best player on each team (or when comparing any team to the Wolves). Do you really think Dirk had a worse overall supporting cast than 2004 KG that year? I sure don’t.

BTW, not denigrating Dirk here either. I thought he was deserving of a spot in this series too. Was disappointed not to see him make the cut.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1268 » by Djoker » Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:45 pm

sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:There is no playoff argument though. The sample sizes are too small.

Even a single regular season campaign has a significant amount of noise let alone a stretch of 20ish games.

Of course, we are looking at a pattern over multiple postseasons, which between them constitute 80+ games pretty easily, longer than the length of a season.

Then again, if you're arguing that the 2001 Lakers weren't that good, that Jordan was pretty lucky to win six Finals and that championships are a ridiculous standard for evaluating players in any way, I can totally see that.

The sample sizes for playoffs are, after all, too small.


SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1269 » by Texas Chuck » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:09 pm

Snakebites wrote:You also brought up 2011 Dirk. I realize you say Cassell would be the second best player on that team, but that’s cherry-picking too to only look at the second best player on each team (or when comparing any team to the Wolves). Do you really think Dirk had a worse overall supporting cast than 2004 KG that year? I sure don’t.

BTW, not denigrating Dirk here either. I thought he was deserving of a spot in this series too. Was disappointed not to see him make the cut.


I want to be clear that I understand that Dirk played with more talent in Dallas than KG did in Minnesota. The reason I brought up 04 Cassell is just to show that while the narrative around KG is always lack of help, Dirk while he benefited from expensive and generally deeper teams, he never played with really high end talent particularly from 05 forward--his best years.

But I would say the 03 Mavs and 11 Mavs definitely have superior supporting casts to the 04 Wolves and the 04 Mavs are a much more talented group as well, but just a bizzarro fit. And I would hear arguments about 05-07 as well though I think that's a tougher sell. Cassell/Spree has to be superior to JET/Howard and then you are talking about young Devin Harris or Erick Dampier as the difference and I just struggle to buy into that. 05 probably does goes to Dallas because Fin is still there and still pretty solid. But Dirk going to the Finals in 06 and winning 67 wins in 07 just aren't talked about enough imo as all-time carry jobs. Much bigger carry jobs than 2011 which gets glorified all the time. But the 2011 Mavs had a lot of good players, even if only one great player. I mean Kidd and Chandler and JET and Marion and Tuff Juice(pre-injury) and Haywood and Barea and DeShawn and then moments from Peja and Ian and Cardinal and heck Free Roddy B was supposed to be a starter on that team.

That was a deep, veteran team with a deep, talented coached staff. And all those guys just complemented Dirk nearly perfectly and they were clearly all pulling in one direction all year. Way better supporting cast than the 04 Wolves. I love Cassell, but once you get past him I'd take 5 or 6 Mavs at least before getting to Spree.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1270 » by Bidofo » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:34 pm

VanWest82 wrote:I would say it's a genius initiator problem which Lebron suffers from because he is one. So too was Steve Nash. D'Antoni figured out right away that giving Nash the reigns and letting him feel the game out and make decisions on the fly produced better results than any rigid collection of plays or philosophy he could come up with. But the flip side to that was that Suns had a really hard time functioning on offense when Nash hit the bench because no one else could replicate what he did.

I think this is why some people would say that the portability discussion really just comes off as a reason to knock intelligent on-ball playmakers. It shouldn't be Nash's fault that no one is as smart as him. I mean, do we think had Nash went off-ball more (thereby decreasing the the Suns' ORTG while he was on the court) for the sake of increasing the team's ORTG for the 10 minutes he was on the bench, that the Suns as a whole would have a better ORTG? I seriously doubt that. I see what you are saying about there being a tradeoff, it's simply a tradeoff worth having.

Another point worth mentioning is that in the playoffs, guys like LeBron is sitting for 6 minutes anyway! What's the point in maximizing those 6 minutes (mostly against bench units too probably) when his teams have elite and ATG results while he's on the court (better than what guys like Bird have mustered)?
VanWest82 wrote:I hear what you're saying about offenses struggling when great players sit but we've seen multiple examples over the years of benches functioning at high levels within a system minus a hub (see 2018 Raptors). I might even categorize the entire 13 and 14 Spurs teams as examples of this. It's important not to conflate an ineffective sub submarining a line up with an effective collection of players unable to achieve success because they're left with no guiding principle for offense.

Yea I don't mean to take a knock on more egalitarian offenses, though I wouldn't really throw the 2018 Raptors in the tier of elite offenses because the playoffs matter as well. Those Spurs teams were more the outlier than the norm though I'd say, the 2014 was arguably the deepest team in history.

VanWest82 wrote:I disagree that Lebron's Miami years were the main/only case against his portability. Why were the Love/Kyrie Cavs teams never able to achieve any meaningful level of competence minus Lebron? Although neither of them were world class play makers both were capable enough to function within a system. I believe the answer is because they didn't prioritize a way of playing that didn't include Lebron which makes sense because when Lebron is on your team you're going to spend most of your time ironing out the details of how to best fit around him given he's the best player in the league. In other words, they perfected a Lebron system not a Cavs system, which is a characteristic of all Lebron-led teams.

Honestly I think you answered your own question, I'd classify neither as even "great" playmakers in their time in Cleveland lol and that's pretty important. Kyrie was just starting to play winning basketball and he's always been the type of player to prefer those Kobe-esque contested shots and was a mediocre passer in general. And iirc, Love actually lost a good amount of weight between his time in Minny and Cleveland because of a modeling side career he wanted to pick up, so that's why when the Cavs always tried setting him up early in games, he couldn't work in the post like he used to. I'm sure part of that decision was also because he knew he needed to space the floor for LeBron so less post-ups were required anyway and he didn't need all that weight, which comes back to the tradeoff I mentioned earlier. Is the Cavs offense without LeBron on a little worse than it would be if Love still had that bulk, sure, but we also wouldn't get the historic results they had when LeBron was on (including defense). I guess we may just be far apart on how good they really were as players.

VanWest82 wrote:One way to combat this dilemma is to find another offensive maestro to bring off the bench which the Lakers did last year with Rondo, and which not-so-coincidentally produced the best results (in the playoffs as that was the only time Rondo was in shape or tried hard) of any bench line ups of a Lebron-led team. But without another genius level decision maker to organize the offense it doesn't work.

I was actually going to bring up Rondo in my original post but forgot. To me, last year was the perfect example of the bare minimum one would need to keep the offense going when LeBron was not on the court! Don't get me wrong, you won't find a FA that's smarter than Rondo and probably not one that's a better passer, but I think it's a stretch to call him an offensive maestro. He was pretty turnover prone relative to his usage, shot well as a whole but was inconsistent, and his shooting is a bit inflated by the fact that he was open for many of his 3s. He kills spacing but made his shots so it didn't matter. If the Lakers had signed, say, Seth Curry for 7m a year, that's great value for a ball handler that can hold up an offense while LeBron's on the bench (like he did for Luka in last year's playoffs).

VanWest82 wrote:Your Curry and Miller analogies aren't as convincing to me because even if you can't find other elite off ball shooters/scorers which your offense is based upon you can still find reasonable, albeit lesser, facsimiles that at least allow you maintain the integrity of your offense which might then allow for the next best guys to take on an increased role within the offense for which they are most familiar as appose to having to switch and do something completely different every time the best player hits the bench. I recognize this is a little theoretical in nature, and there are countless examples of that concept not working, but fundamentally one would think it should produce a greater chance of success assuming the roster is constructed around the principles of the coach's system (big assumption, and not always true).

Yea I just disagree here since there are many examples like you mentioned where it doesn't work. Again, not to pick the lowest hanging fruit, but this is what Kerr tries to do with Wiggins as the lead when Steph leaves, and it just doesn't work, not that all secondary leads are Wiggins level bad but yeah. Besides, I don't think LeBron-ball is particularly complex anyway, you just need a playmaker that can spam PnRs, penetrate, make basic kick passes, and take advantage of a very well spaced floor. I know it sounds like a lot, but funnily enough, the new+young Warriors this year struggled (they still do) in Kerr's system because they have no idea what to do off-ball or where/how to pass haha.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1271 » by falcolombardi » Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:01 pm

Djoker wrote:
sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:There is no playoff argument though. The sample sizes are too small.

Even a single regular season campaign has a significant amount of noise let alone a stretch of 20ish games.

Of course, we are looking at a pattern over multiple postseasons, which between them constitute 80+ games pretty easily, longer than the length of a season.

Then again, if you're arguing that the 2001 Lakers weren't that good, that Jordan was pretty lucky to win six Finals and that championships are a ridiculous standard for evaluating players in any way, I can totally see that.

The sample sizes for playoffs are, after all, too small.


SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.


lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1272 » by Odinn21 » Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:17 am

sansterre wrote:Put another way, I read Ben's "portability" as a "ceiling-raising" skill

I read it as a matter of spacing, rather than floor or ceiling raising.

One of the ways I put it about Hakeem Olajuwon was;
Hakeem was a space user rather than space creator. He used the space around him more than he created for others. The shooting/spacing around him enabled Hakeem more than the vice versa. He was also quite ball dominant for a C and not in a good way. He did not create open / high value shots like Shaq/Kareem, even Timmy.


I think that's exactly what Taylor has in mind with offensive portability. If a player takes away ball and the space at the same time, his offensive portability to a better offensive unit/structure is not good.

Even though, I get (and agree) with his definition on a fundamental level, I don't agree with how he uses that concept.
Texas Chuck wrote:Portability is a way to bump up players people like but can't otherwise justify. It's so intangible a concept that they realize they can just throw it out there and it can't be proven or disproven.

This is how he exactly uses the concept. This imaginary concept takes precedence over reality to explain what could be over what already happened.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1273 » by LukaTheGOAT » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:50 am

Texas Chuck wrote:
Snakebites wrote:I think the premise here is that, if you hypothetically have a player with a similar impact to Lebron who you CAN add a guy line Wade to without reducing the impact of either player, then said player is more valuable than Lebron.

I would agree with that, but no such player exists, and I’m not convinced such a player could exist.


I mean the arguments IRL come down to Russell and Duncan and maybe Kareem. And I can't really argue Duncan and Kareem have similar impact to Lebron and Russell is just so unique in how his impact is registered so yeah that player doesn't exist.

And I understand the argument, but that tie-breaker is never going to come into play with players this good. It comes into play with asking do I want Scottie Pippen, Kevin McHale, or Draymond Green perhaps.

Like take my current little Mavs--Luka would score extremely lowly on the portability scale. Okay. So what? If you have Luka, you are never thinking what I want to do is run you off staggered screens on the weak side, or maybe use you as the screener in the PNR or hey Luka go stand in the corner. So saying well Trae Young could be more useful doing those things so I'd rather have him because of portability is just silly.


Luka actually has neutral portability according to Ben Taylor based off his 2020 evaluations. That is better than the Miami Lebron in question. But I see your point.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1274 » by migya » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:01 am

Odinn21 wrote:One of the ways I put it about Hakeem Olajuwon was;
Hakeem was a space user rather than space creator. He used the space around him more than he created for others. The shooting/spacing around him enabled Hakeem more than the vice versa. He was also quite ball dominant for a C and not in a good way. He did not create open / high value shots like Shaq/Kareem, even Timmy.




I saw Olajuwon play myself and he was one of the best creators for his teammates that there was. Kenny Smith, Vernon Maxwell and the rest of his below average roster wouldn't have lasted anywhere else in the nba. Olajuwon's skills offensively, which were more allround and versatile than any other big allowed for teammates to cut to the basket and not play primarily on the outside because of the lane being clogged, like with Shaq and even Kareem.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1275 » by LukaTheGOAT » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:03 am

Djoker wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:
Djoker wrote:I am with you in a sense that I too thought previously that Ben held Lebron's teams to the standard of the 2017 Warriors or something which isn't fair but it is actually fair. When you're talking about the best player ever at their peaks then they should mesh into the best team ever, not just a championship team. The standards are higher.


I mean if Lebron got to play with KD(GOAT level scorer), Draymond(GOAT level defender), Klay(near GOAT level 3&D guy), Iggy(high level glue guy), etc then we can talk about what's fair.

Lebron never played with anything close to that level of talent, but you are blaming him not having a GOAT-level team on portability instead of the actual story-talent.

Everyone wanted to credit Steve Kerr with solving basketball. No, he didn't. He just had a ridiculous collection of talent.


I agree about more talent on the Warriors but we aren't comparing Lebron and Curry. We are comparing Lebron to the GOAT peak specifically MJ.

Jordan built several all-time great offensive teams with Pippen, Grant and Armstrong and then Pippen, Rodman and Kukoc. Those are all far from a historically stacked casts on offense and yet they posted comparable rORtg to the Warriors, Showtime Lakers etc. That's the standard I grade Lebron on. He never led a single team that dominant on offense despite having several more talented offensive supporting casts than what Jordan did.

And that's why myself and several others including Ben Taylor asked ourselves "Why?" and came to the conclusion that Lebron's ability to mesh with other on-ball talent limits the offensive ceiling of his teams.


Ben actually shows in the video how Lebron's peak postseason offenses were better than MJ's (his Cleveland stint). He also showed how when Wade was on the bench, the Heat actually had an all-time offense with Lebron running things, and Lebron's scoring looks GOAT-like. This is over a multi-year example, so I wouldn't really call it small sample size.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1276 » by LukaTheGOAT » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:24 am

falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:
sansterre wrote:Of course, we are looking at a pattern over multiple postseasons, which between them constitute 80+ games pretty easily, longer than the length of a season.

Then again, if you're arguing that the 2001 Lakers weren't that good, that Jordan was pretty lucky to win six Finals and that championships are a ridiculous standard for evaluating players in any way, I can totally see that.

The sample sizes for playoffs are, after all, too small.


SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.


lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014


Also I felt like I should add that Lebron's Heat-Cavs stretched topped MJ in 8 year playoff offense. 8 years of making it to the FInals every year is a significantly notable sample size, enough that I would say it is something work looking at.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1277 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:37 am

migya wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:One of the ways I put it about Hakeem Olajuwon was;
Hakeem was a space user rather than space creator. He used the space around him more than he created for others. The shooting/spacing around him enabled Hakeem more than the vice versa. He was also quite ball dominant for a C and not in a good way. He did not create open / high value shots like Shaq/Kareem, even Timmy.




I saw Olajuwon play myself and he was one of the best creators for his teammates that there was. Kenny Smith, Vernon Maxwell and the rest of his below average roster wouldn't have lasted anywhere else in the nba. Olajuwon's skills offensively, which were more allround and versatile than any other big allowed for teammates to cut to the basket and not play primarily on the outside because of the lane being clogged, like with Shaq and even Kareem.

Not sure what you mean? A lot of those players were in the league before and after Olajuwon and most of them were pretty good. Kenny Smith and Vernon Maxwell were not stars but they were certainly good players.

Sam Cassell, Clyde Drexler, Robert Horry, Otis Thorpe all had good careers.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1278 » by falcolombardi » Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:39 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:
SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.


lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014


Also I felt like I should add that Lebron's Heat-Cavs stretched topped MJ in 8 year playoff offense. 8 years of making it to the FInals every year is a significantly notable sample size, enough that I would say it is something work looking at.


just for the sake of it, i checked the team relORTG of a bunch of other players over their primes (6-8 seasons).

of course this doesnt consider their teammates, includes the team play with them on the bench and the definition of which years are prime is subjective but is still fun to see

lebron teams between 2010-2017: 8.75 relative offensive rating in post season

jordan teams between 1991-1998 (minus 95): 7.4 relative ofensive rating

Magic johnson teams between 1984-1991: 8.45 relative rating in post season

Steve nash teams between 2004-2010: this one was a roller coaster, as high as +17(!) and as low as +3 for a +10 (!) relative offensive playoff rating, they scored without issue in a low scoring league those early years but the league catched up i guess

Larry bird teams between 1980-1987: +5, unexpectedly lower than guys above and even a -2.5 year (1983).

this was pretty fun to check out, of course this numbers are not to take without contexts but they are interesting nonetheless
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1279 » by Djoker » Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:20 am

falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:
sansterre wrote:Of course, we are looking at a pattern over multiple postseasons, which between them constitute 80+ games pretty easily, longer than the length of a season.

Then again, if you're arguing that the 2001 Lakers weren't that good, that Jordan was pretty lucky to win six Finals and that championships are a ridiculous standard for evaluating players in any way, I can totally see that.

The sample sizes for playoffs are, after all, too small.


SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.


lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014


What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good... :lol:

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Ben actually shows in the video how Lebron's peak postseason offenses were better than MJ's (his Cleveland stint). He also showed how when Wade was on the bench, the Heat actually had an all-time offense with Lebron running things, and Lebron's scoring looks GOAT-like. This is over a multi-year example, so I wouldn't really call it small sample size.


Ben mentioned postseason offense but then talked in his podcast how playoff metrics have massive noise and how any samples under 60 games are super erratic and how even regular season samples of 82 games are still very noisy. Using playoff data isn't a serious argument. The samples are not just tiny but also poorly representative considering a small number of opponents.

Ultimately the only thing we can conclude from noisy playoff signals is that both Lebron and Jordan probably led good playoff offenses but we knew that already. The notion that this data is any kind of tiebreaker is ridiculous IMO. Regular season data spanning many seasons though? Much more informative and we can definitely say that Jordan's Bulls reached greater offensige height than any Lebron team although one can dismiss it and say "That's just the regular season. Playoffs matter more." and we're back to square one.

When Wade was on the bench... How about when Pippen was on the bench? We don't have those numbers unfortunately.
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Re: Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor) 

Post#1280 » by falcolombardi » Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:13 am

Djoker wrote:
falcolombardi wrote:
Djoker wrote:
SIngle year postseason data is next to useless. The 2001 Lakers are an all-time great team in the context of what they did in surrounding years. If their 2000 and 2002 titles never happened, no one would talk about them as an all-time great team. And of course not surprisingly their numbers come down to Earth quite a bit if you take the 2000-2002 postseasons combined and mind you that sample is still around 2/3 of a single season i.e. low sample size. Postseason data also has a tendency to be poorly representative of the entire sample. The Lakers during their threepeat for instance played a disproportionately large number of games against the Spurs, Kings, and Blazers.

Maybe in the case where there is a general trend that certain players' team rORtg numbers plummet in the postseason (like for instance Curry's) we can temper the impact of their regular season numbers a bit. But with Jordan that didn't happen at all. The Bulls from 1990-1993 and 1996-1998 had a whopping +7.5 rORtg in the playoffs over a 131 game sample. In those regular seasons they were an astounding +5.8 rORtg but we can see that they actually went up considerably in the playoffs.


lebron teams actually hold up exceptionally well in playoffs relative offensive ratings, including higher peaks (16,17) than jordan bulls

from a 2011-2017 stretch where he played with strong offensive talent he went


2011: +4.7
2012: +8.8
2013: +7.2
2014: +10.6
2015: + 4.5
2016:+12.5
2017:13.7

that is nearly a +9 relORTG average, 8.85 to be exact

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1lMHVWmmq6lEy9O9XqLk0Ji-xawtX8gPRtHHwbvV9634/htmlview#gid=999526014


What about 2018 and 2020? And 2009 and 2010? Why exclude those years? Perhaps the numbers aren't as good... :lol:

Anyways postseason numbers are super noisy... SUPER NOISY.

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Ben actually shows in the video how Lebron's peak postseason offenses were better than MJ's (his Cleveland stint). He also showed how when Wade was on the bench, the Heat actually had an all-time offense with Lebron running things, and Lebron's scoring looks GOAT-like. This is over a multi-year example, so I wouldn't really call it small sample size.


Ben mentioned postseason offense but then talked in his podcast how playoff metrics have massive noise and how any samples under 60 games are super erratic and how even regular season samples of 82 games are still very noisy. Using playoff data isn't a serious argument. The samples are not just tiny but also poorly representative considering a small number of opponents.

Ultimately the only thing we can conclude from noisy playoff signals is that both Lebron and Jordan probably led good playoff offenses but we knew that already. The notion that this data is any kind of tiebreaker is ridiculous IMO. Regular season data spanning many seasons though? Much more informative and we can definitely say that Jordan's Bulls reached greater offensige height than any Lebron team although one can dismiss it and say "That's just the regular season. Playoffs matter more." and we're back to square one.

When Wade was on the bench... How about when Pippen was on the bench? We don't have those numbers unfortunately.


i picked that period cause is prime lebron + strong supporting casts (which were a lot more limited the year prior -2010- or after -2018- )

so i thought it was the best continuous period of prime lebron postseason offensive ability, 2003-2008 being a bit too much below in impact and 2018 a bit too alone in the roster

and it also fit nicely in the amount of seasons (6) you used for jordan so it seemed like a fair comparision

if i expand to include lebron whole prime regardless of cast, what do you consider jordan prime to be. for a fair comparision?

1987-1998 (minus 95) ?

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