This thread inspired by Jayson Stark's piece in The Athletic today. Some excerpts for those not subscribed:
WHAT’S HAPPENING: For the first half of the Atlantic League season, which begins May 27, the mound isn’t going anywhere. But for the second half, starting on Aug. 3, the distance between the plate and the rubber will shift to 61 feet, 6 inches.
WHY IT’S HAPPENING: We’re guessing you’ve noticed that pitchers these days throw harder than at any time in recorded history. (Average fastball velocity in 2021: 93.4 mph, the highest ever.) We’re guessing you’ve also noticed that’s produced a whole cyclone’s worth of swinging and missing. (Strikeout rate in 2021: a ridiculous 9.5 per nine innings, the most ever.)
So if this keeps up, it would make 16 years in a row that the strikeout rate has increased. And you know what that means? Forget the Three True Outcomes. It’s really just that One True Outcome that is swallowing up this sport. So how can baseball counteract the effects of all that velocity? Moving back the mound, even by a foot, might be an answer. Or not.
Time to double down on the Double Hook?
WHAT’S HAPPENING: Unlike the 61-6 experiment, the Double Hook will be in effect all season long in the Atlantic League. So in case this wasn’t clear earlier, here’s the deal with how that will work:
Every team starts the game with a DH. If the starting pitcher goes nine innings, the DH hangs around for all nine innings. If the starting pitcher gets knocked out in the fourth, the DH gets knocked out with him. If the starting pitcher is in trouble in the top of the sixth and the DH is due up in the bottom of the sixth, then the manager has a fun decision to make. Talk-show lines are open.
WHY IT’S HAPPENING: Remember back in the good old days — by which we mean, oh, 2010 — when the first question you asked before you watched a baseball game was: Who’s pitching tonight? That’s because we spent a century thinking of starting pitchers as the biggest names and most significant players in the whole sport. It was fun century while it lasted.
In 2020, the average starting pitcher got a measly 14 outs per start. In 2010, that average was 18 outs. And would you believe that even if we prorate last year’s stats over a full season, fewer than 500 starters would have been permitted to go through a lineup three times in 2020? Ten years ago, that number was more than 2,200.
So the Double Hook isn’t really about the DH at all. (Or at least not much.) It’s really about dangling an incentive in front of managers and data-driven front offices to keep their starting pitchers in the game long enough for your average season-ticket holder to have time to gulp down a hot dog and still watch those starters work their magic.