Post#64 » by Almost Retired » Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:38 pm
First, before any novice without a good, basic fall back portfolio I would avoid crypto speculation, especially at these elevated prices. And read an old book that remains relevant today: "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay (1841). Understand the psychology of bubbles before possibly participating. The overall stock market is currently in a bubble based on definable metrics that have been used for decades. I don't know if crypto is in a bubble or not because there is no definable way attach an actual value to it. It is valuable to people because they think it will rise in value. Maybe that's true and it's the speculation of the century. But maybe it's not and it becomes the embodiment of the "greater fool theory".
Second, correct me if I'm wrong. I live in Texas. In our last deep freeze in February when our windmills froze up we were very close to having a full out melt down of our state's electric grid. Had we lost power, lost all computer connectivity, lost our cell phone towers, etc.....how could a person in Texas have cashed out any crypto if they needed the cash for an immediate pressing need? What if we have a big problem nationally with our electric grid. Say from a severe solar flare or god forbid an EMP sent to us from China or Russia. The grid could be down for months if not years. Where's my money that I have stored in crypto if I need it under those extreme circumstances?
I am not an investor in crypto. I'm too close to retirement to need to do pure speculation. Right now I am playing it safe with mostly gold and silver bullion.... and gold, silver, uranium and copper mining stocks. That sector has not overheated like the rest of the market. I know they are considered relics by some, but when you're 443 days from retirement you appreciate the peace of mind knowing that gold and silver have been "money" for close to 5,000 years. Central banks are actively buying mass quantities of gold for their central banks. China especially. Their digital yuan is going to be backed by gold. Which is going to make it very attractive to foreign countries and companies that are tired of a US Dollar Reserve Currency system that allows America to increase it's money supply without limit. At some point in the future the US Dollar will lose it's Reserve Currency status. When that happens you are going to see inflation like you never imagined. Gold and silver will retain value over time. Purchasing power. (Of course I acknowledge that crypto will do well as people look for any way to get out of Dollars at that point.)
I can recommend certain mining stock investments to widows and orphans. Take Newmont Mining (NEM). It operates mines in North America, South America, Argentina, Australia, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Ghana and Suriname. They are generating a ton of free cash with gold spot prices well above production costs. It's profits will rise with the gold price. The company has been in business for over 100 years, and it is the largest and best capitalized mining company in the world. So you have safety, geographic diversification, the potential for significant capital appreciation and it pays a dividend near 3.5% so you get paid to wait. That dividend yield is 3 times more than you can get with bonds and 10 times more than a money market fund. And your principal is an inflation hedge. NEM is one of the safest investments in the world right now. For a little more sizzle you could add SIL, Global X Silver Miners ETF. The fund hold shares in all the top silver mining companies like Pan American (PAAS), Hecle Mining (HL), First Majestic (AG), Wheaton PM (WPM), Coeur Mining (CDE), etc. The fund is diversified between companies and regions. It is more volatile, but we will be entering a period whereby silver will outperform gold. And silver is going to be in a severe shortage due to supply inadequacies. The move to more electric vehicles, more solar energy, etc. is driving up the industrial use of silver. Because silver and gold prices were in a bear market for a decade there were no investments being made to dig for and develop new mines. It takes 15-20 years for a "find" to become a working, paying mine. The capital needed is huge and the governmental permitting process takes a very long time. There will be no way for production to meet the rising need for silver. The price will inevitably rise. And while you sit and wait for SILJ to pay off with capital appreciation they give you a 2.08% Dividend Yield.
For copper you have to own Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Rio Tinto (RIO). Copper will exhibit some of the same supply shortages as silver due to it's widespread use in everything electric. For uranium look also to Rio Tinto and Cameco (CCJ).... RIO pays a dividend yield > 5%. There is also a Uranium ETF called "URA" which is diversified to lower risk and still pays almost a 1.5% Dividend yield. Uranium will come back into vogue as green energy regulations are going to prevent more coal and nat gas fired power generating plants. Something is going to have to supply our power needs when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow.
That's my free advice, and it's probably worth what you paid for it. Buy real "stuff" first. Make that the core of your portfolio. I'd add some energy/oil/natural gas/hydrogen fuel cell investments and perhaps a lithium play. With all the electric vehicles anticipated they need lithium for their enormous batteries. Once you have a solid core portfolio you can afford to speculate on crypto with no more than 5-10% of your net worth. And only if you're younger. At least under 55 years old. Above that age capital preservation is more important that pure speculation.