Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

[Djoker]

I just tabulated the career postseason rORtg numbers:

Jordan: +6.3 over 179 games
Lebron: +5.9 over 260 games

And of course we see that team offense edge for Jordan despite obviously lesser offensive talent. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you're on. If people don't flat out acknowledge that Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Kukoc are inferior offensive casts to Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love and Davis/whoever then this argument isn't worth having for me.

Here are your options:

Door #1: Prime LeBron led better playoff offenses in his prime than Jordan, but he also had more offensive talent around him.

Door #2: Jordan led better playoff offenses over their careers, but LeBron was racking up a lot of playoff games with very defensively-slanted rosters in his first Cleveland stint, so it's not as clear about who had more teammate talent.

It's a little disingenuous to go with the parts of each door that make Jordan look better, when the two are built on different premises.

We can go with Door #2 but Jordan also played on a few defensively slanted lineups, namely on the 1988 Bulls and the entire 2nd threepeat actually. And Lebron's defensively slanted lineups you're referring to were from 2006-2008?

Anyways this whole argument started with portability (or whatever the word is LOL) and ended up here. It started with me saying Jordan led better team offenses which is supported by extensive regular season rORtg numbers. Then folks responded with extremely noisy playoff data which in the end even if you ignore the noise still doesn't disprove what I said since Jordan has a very slight career edge. And of course the bottom line is that Lebron couldn't elevate his offenses to that level despite playing with more talent. Now do we definitively know that Jordan could have made those teams better on offense? Well we haven't seen MJ do it because he never played with Wade/Bosh or Kyrie/Love but we know that MJ has a better off-ball game.

[HeartBreakKid]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

Are we pretending like those aren't NBA teams? I mean come on now, yes, there is a gap in quality but it's not so much to the point that it's going to hyper inflate someone's stats. The East didn't even lack in defense.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

Are we pretending like those aren't NBA teams? I mean come on now, yes, there is a gap in quality but it's not so much to the point that it's going to hyper inflate someone's stats. The East didn't even lack in defense.

He does have a valid point, that I didn't think of regarding East playoff defenses. If the East was medicore offensively to begin with, then defensive ratings could be inflated. I guess I might argue that looking at the defensive personnel of the rosters in the East, I always felt like the East was strong there.

Like DPOY by year

08: KG (East)
09: Dwight (East)
10: Dwight (East)
11: Dwight (East)
12: Chandler (East)-Lebron Played Year Before
13: Marc Gasol (West)
14: Joakim Noah (East)
15: Kawhi (West)
16: Kawhi (West)
17: Draymond (West)- Lebron played same year
18: Gobert (West)

DPOY probably isn't the best way to go about this, but I think this kind of shows defensive high-tier talaent that can lift your squad to the next level, is pretty fairly split.

If we go by highest D-PIPM per year:

18: Gobert (West)
17: Green (West-Lebron played in Finals)
16: Green (West- Lebron played in Finals)
15: Allen (West)
14: Kawhi (Wes-Lebron played in Finals)
13: Gasol (West)
12: Sanders (East)
11: KG (East)
10: Bogut (East)
09: Camby (West)
08: KG(East)

Now we see that the talent might favor the West, however, Lebron played these guys ample times either in the East or in the Finals. I also would add that I feel as if Draymond was the best defender in 2018 and this showed in their PS matchup against the Rockets in 18, something that Gobert struggled with. I think Gobert was the better RS defender, which I think the data shows.

[falcolombardi]

so i am gonna question the notiom that lebron played with much more star players through his career than jordan or other greata

his 14 post seasons include 2006-2010 without all star level teammates, that is over a third of it

then between 2011 and 2020 he didnt play with 2 all star teammates every year either cause 2015 both were injured, 2018 it was only love

regular season wise he didnt have star teammates in 2003-2010, 2019 (8 of 17 seasons) AKA 55% of his reg seaso. career was with star teammates

making a comparision with jordan. he had what in consider prime pippen (90-98) in 7 of his 11 full seasons,
aka 63% of his reg season career was with all star teammates

whilr post season wise is a similar story, having prime pippen in 8 of 13 post seasons

[falcolombardi]

Now i am gonna compare their regular seasons and post season offensive ratings

i wont count lebron rookie year since i consider that way too young nor jordan wizard years cause too old or short reg seasons (86,95) cause too little sample size


Jordan reg seasons vs. lebron reg seasons


85: +2.2 vs 05:+1.4
86:DNP vs 06:+2.3
87: +1.1 vs 07:-0.6
N/A vs 08:-1.0

prime for both


88: +1.6 vs 09:+4.9
89: +1.9. vs 10:+5.0
90: +4.7 vs 11:+5.1
91: +7.0 vs 12:+3.4
92: +7.9 vs 13:+7.4
93: +5.6 vs 14:+5.5
96: +8.1 vs 15:+6.4
97:+8.3 vs 16:+5.4
98:+3.9 vs 17:+5.5
N/A vs 18:+5
N/A vs 19:-2.0
N/A vs 20:+2.2

post season:

Jordan post seasons vs. lebron post seasons


85: +5.1 vs 05 DNP
86: +5.1 vs 06:-0.9
87: +2.6 vs 07:-2.5
N/A vs 08:+1.2

prime for both


88: -2.6 vs 09:+8.3
89: +3.9 vs 10:+4.1
90: +4.0 vs 11:+4.7
91: +11.7 vs 12:+8.8
92: +6.5 vs 13:+7.2
93: +8.1 vs 14:+10.6
96: +8.6 vs 15:+5.5
97: +6.0 vs 16:+12.5
98: +6.5 vs 17:+13.7
N/A vs 18:+2.4
N/A vs 19: DNP
N/A vs 20:+2.9

jordan full career reg season:+4.8

jordan full career post season:+5.5

jordan prime reg seasons:+5.5

jordan prime post seasons:+5.9

vs

lebron full career reg seasons:+3.5

lebron full career post seasons:+4.9

lebron prime reg seasons:+4.5 (+4.9 minus 2019 outlier)

lebron prime post seasons: +6.4


conclusions: Lebron is a little bit better in post season, jordan is a bit better regular season

lebron teams since 2009 are a lot better when post season arrives (LeCoast is real?) while jordan teams "only" improve a bit (jordan had a better motor in reg season?)

jordan teams were good offensively from the start. while lebron teams were far from it, lebrom had a much bigger jump in results (offensively) from his first mvp season compared to jordan

lebron postseason offenses> jordan post season offenses> jordan reg season offenses> lebron reg season offenses.

at his peak, lebron teams>jordan teams offensively

at least that is my conclusion from the data, others may evaluate it differently of course

also on the topic of sample sizes, lebron post season offenses in his prime account to basically 3 seasons worth of games, longer that some players (walton) peaks in taylor project so i dont see what the issue is with using that data

[colts18]

LeBron was playing the 08 Celtics, the 09 Magic, 10 Celtics, 11 Celtics, 11 Bulls, 12 Celtics, 13 Pacers, 14 Pacers. All of them were all-time level defenses. Jordan never faced a defense of that caliber outside of the Knicks.

LeBron was also facing the Warriors who had the greatest collection of perimeter defensive talent in history. Iguodala, Green, Durant, and Klay are all-defensive caliber players who were guarding LeBron. MJ never faced perimeter defenders of that caliber in the playoffs.

[homecourtloss]

Are we back to pretending like the quality of playoff competition in the East in 2010s was comparable to the 90s? Seems like a pretty suspect assumption to be baked in to all these numbers.

Are we pretending like those aren't NBA teams? I mean come on now, yes, there is a gap in quality but it's not so much to the point that it's going to hyper inflate someone's stats. The East didn't even lack in defense.

He does have a valid point, that I didn't think of regarding East playoff defenses. If the East was medicore offensively to begin with, then defensive ratings could be inflated. I guess I might argue that looking at the defensive personnel of the rosters in the East, I always felt like the East was strong there.

Like DPOY by year

08: KG (East)
09: Dwight (East)
10: Dwight (East)
11: Dwight (East)
12: Chandler (East)-Lebron Played Year Before
13: Marc Gasol (West)
14: Joakim Noah (East)
15: Kawhi (West)
16: Kawhi (West)
17: Draymond (West)- Lebron played same year
18: Gobert (West)

DPOY probably isn't the best way to go about this, but I think this kind of shows defensive high-tier talaent that can lift your squad to the next level, is pretty fairly split.

If we go by highest D-PIPM per year:

18: Gobert (West)
17: Green (West-Lebron played in Finals)
16: Green (West- Lebron played in Finals)
15: Allen (West)
14: Kawhi (Wes-Lebron played in Finals)
13: Gasol (West)
12: Sanders (East)
11: KG (East)
10: Bogut (East)
09: Camby (West)
08: KG(East)

Now we see that the talent might favor the West, however, Lebron played these guys ample times either in the East or in the Finals. I also would add that I feel as if Draymond was the best defender in 2018 and this showed in their PS matchup against the Rockets in 18, something that Gobert struggled with. I think Gobert was the better RS defender, which I think the data shows.

LeBron was playing the 08 Celtics, the 09 Magic, 10 Celtics, 11 Celtics, 11 Bulls, 12 Celtics, 13 Pacers, 14 Pacers. All of them were all-time level defenses. Jordan never faced a defense of that caliber outside of the Knicks.

LeBron was also facing the Warriors who had the greatest collection of perimeter defensive talent in history. Iguodala, Green, Durant, and Klay are all-defensive caliber players who were guarding LeBron. MJ never faced perimeter defenders of that caliber in the playoffs.

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 8, LeBron 5
-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 15, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 11, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

2017 Raptors, -1.0 rDRtg, +17.7 rTS%, +15.3 reFG%
2013 Bucks, -.7 rDRtg, +14.4 rTS%, +17.7 reFG%
2014 Nets, +1.0 rDRtg, +14.2 rTS%, +10.7 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2016 Raptors, -1.2 rDRtg, +12.6 rTS%, +16.0 reFG%
2010 Bulls, -2.3 rDRtg, +12.5 rTS%, +15.0 reFG%
2009 Hawks, -.7 rDRtg, +12.3 rTS%, +15.2 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knicks, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Knicks, -4.0 rDRtg, +2.1 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

1992 Heat, +2.4 DRtg, +13.7 rTS%, +10.1 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Knicks, -.3 rDRtg, +10.9 rTS%, +6.2 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1988 Cavs, -2.0 rDRtg, +9.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%

[falcolombardi]

Are we pretending like those aren't NBA teams? I mean come on now, yes, there is a gap in quality but it's not so much to the point that it's going to hyper inflate someone's stats. The East didn't even lack in defense.

He does have a valid point, that I didn't think of regarding East playoff defenses. If the East was medicore offensively to begin with, then defensive ratings could be inflated. I guess I might argue that looking at the defensive personnel of the rosters in the East, I always felt like the East was strong there.

Like DPOY by year

08: KG (East)
09: Dwight (East)
10: Dwight (East)
11: Dwight (East)
12: Chandler (East)-Lebron Played Year Before
13: Marc Gasol (West)
14: Joakim Noah (East)
15: Kawhi (West)
16: Kawhi (West)
17: Draymond (West)- Lebron played same year
18: Gobert (West)

DPOY probably isn't the best way to go about this, but I think this kind of shows defensive high-tier talaent that can lift your squad to the next level, is pretty fairly split.

If we go by highest D-PIPM per year:

18: Gobert (West)
17: Green (West-Lebron played in Finals)
16: Green (West- Lebron played in Finals)
15: Allen (West)
14: Kawhi (Wes-Lebron played in Finals)
13: Gasol (West)
12: Sanders (East)
11: KG (East)
10: Bogut (East)
09: Camby (West)
08: KG(East)

Now we see that the talent might favor the West, however, Lebron played these guys ample times either in the East or in the Finals. I also would add that I feel as if Draymond was the best defender in 2018 and this showed in their PS matchup against the Rockets in 18, something that Gobert struggled with. I think Gobert was the better RS defender, which I think the data shows.

LeBron was playing the 08 Celtics, the 09 Magic, 10 Celtics, 11 Celtics, 11 Bulls, 12 Celtics, 13 Pacers, 14 Pacers. All of them were all-time level defenses. Jordan never faced a defense of that caliber outside of the Knicks.

LeBron was also facing the Warriors who had the greatest collection of perimeter defensive talent in history. Iguodala, Green, Durant, and Klay are all-defensive caliber players who were guarding LeBron. MJ never faced perimeter defenders of that caliber in the playoffs.

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30, 7 of the top 35 defenses in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5
-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

2017 Raptors, -1.0 rDRtg, +17.7 rTS%, +15.3 reFG%
2013 Bucks, -.7 rDRtg, +14.4 rTS%, +17.7 reFG%
2014 Nets, +1.0 rDRtg, +14.2 rTS%, +10.7 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2016 Raptors, -1.2 rDRtg, +12.6 rTS%, +16.0 reFG%
2010 Bulls, -2.3 rDRtg, +12.5 rTS%, +15.0 reFG%
2009 Hawks, -.7 rDRtg, +12.3 rTS%, +15.2 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

1992 Heat, +2.4 DRtg, +13.7 rTS%, +10.1 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Knicks, -.3 rDRtg, +10.9 rTS%, +6.2 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1988 Cavs, -2.0 rDRtg, +9.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%

JESUS, i knew east of the last years had good defenses but i didnt expect that

[cpower]

Using just raw on/off is not a great way to evaluate impact, as unlike PIPM and RAPM, it does not try to adjust for the teammates you are playing for. And furthermore, if we just follow raw on/off, a past peak David Robinson is better than Shaq, Lebron, etc. It is notable but not the only thing.

A few thoughts about raw on/off for the playoffs. I agree with you that you should never look at a raw on/off (or really any stat) and say "player X is better than players Y, Z and Q". Stats always have to be tied to what they're measuring, and this stat is (to whatever degree noise allows) is trying to correlate a player's presence with the team's scoring margins. That's not the same thing as 'this player is better'.

With that said, I do think people way over-react (and under-appreciate) the information that can be found in playoffs on/off +/-. Yes, it's noisy. And yes, you have to pay attention to sample sizes and be more discerning than if you had a perfect dataset to work with. But as I've pointed out before, there is usable signal within that noise, and I think that signal is important BECAUSE there's such a lack of great postseason +/- information to work with. Even in the larger regular season samples, it is ABUNDANTLY clear that the box scores aren't equipped to accurately estimate overall impact. That's why there's a need for the impact stat approach in the first place. That need doesn't just go away for the playoffs, so relying purely on the box scores in the playoffs is just as lacking as it would be in the regular season...more-so, actually, because of the very small samples. Even box score stats can be gamed in smaller samples, so if we only have the box scores to go off, way too much of the real story is lost.

Anyway. You made a good point about raw on/off not adjusting sufficiently for teammates. It does offer a first-blush, basic correction for teammates that purely raw +/- doesn't, but not enough. So, one quick hack would be to compare an individual's playoffs on/off +/- with the on/off +/- of his teammates. There's several ways to do this, but for the below example I compared the highest playoffs on/off with the second-best on the team (among big-minute rotation players), and note the difference.

So, for this exercise, I use a few general rules to increase the likelihood of useful signal in the midst of the small sample/potential noise.

Rules:
*Teams had to make at least the Conference Finals
*Noting only the highest on-off +/- scores on the team as the ones likely driving the positive margin
*Using difference b/w highest on/off score and second-highest as a means to separate strong individual impact from strong units
*I looked at every conference finalist from 1997 - 2020 for this data
*Setting thresholds (to sort the 96 represented seasons)
I took the average on/off +/- of the top player on each team (+16.4)
I then took the average difference b/w top and 2nd player on each team (+7.7)

Results summary of the "16/8" club
31 player playoffs where team leader on/off > 16, difference b/w P1 & P2 > 8
Only 4 players (LeBron, Shaq, KG, Duncan) made list more than once (accounted for 12 of the 31 16/8 seasons)
Notable 1-offs include 1997 Jordan & 2006 D. Wade

Typically, the non-megastars fit into one of several categories not well captured by boxscores. Few non-intuitive 1-offs.
Defense: '04 Ben Wallace, 02 Doug Christie, '15 Draymond Green, '11 Luol Deng, '13 Marc Gasol, '99 Robinson
Floor stretchers: '00 Reggie Miller, '01 Ray Allen, '10 Rashard Lewis
Floor generals: '02 Jason Kidd, '16 Kyle Lowry, '06 Steve Nash
Mega 6th men: '05 Manu GInobili, '12 James Harden
Past prime stars: '97 Clyde Drexler, '99 Arvydys Sabonis, (Jordan, Robinson & Reggie would fit here too)
('17 Kawhi Leonard makes list, w/ small asterisk since he only played 12 of the team's 16 games that postseason)

Anyway, just a simple exercise like this shows a lot of, IMO, useful info. For example, you mention that by raw playoffs on/off +/- David Robinson looks better than Shaq and LeBron. Well, here we see that '99 Robinson was the only version of late-prime DRob to make this list (by 2001, even though he had a great on/off, he had been surpassed by Duncan), while both Shaq and LeBron were on here multiple times (7 total, between them).

I should note, NOT making this list doesn't necessarily mean a player didn't have a great postseason impact in a given season. They could've had a great on/off in a great unit (e.g. 2011 Dirk met the on/off threshold, but not gap over 2nd because unit was strong). But, on that note...

Focus: you were talking about Steph, in a post that compares him with KD and also mentions Magic, MJ and LeBron's postseason peaks. While it may not be rigorous, it's at least worth noting, to me, that out of all the many times that Steph and KD have played on contending teams (and their entire careers were in the databall era), neither of them had even one postseason run make the above list. Of the others listed, LeBron has the most such seasons on record (4) and even though we only have the last 2 seasons of MJ's Bulls career, he reached the thresholds in '97 and really was barely short of the thresholds to have a second such postseason run in '98 (led Bulls w/ +14.6 postseason on/off, +6.3 higher than 2nd on team). When you factor in that most of the other players in Ben's peak project have seasons like that as well...like I said, I at least take note.

Following up, of the 2, Curry seems to have the more impressive postseason +/- record. As I noted in a previous post, Curry's raw on/off +/- in his prime-ish seasons was +12.6, while Durant's was +5.1. Curry's record looks more like what I described for 2011 Dirk, where he had high numbers but may have been parts of units such that we couldn't ascribe the impact just to him (e.g. the Draymond effect), whereas Durant really doesn't have a postseason record where he stands out even to that extent in the +/- data.

Anyway. All of this is obviously food for thought. But to me it is useful information that adds depth to postseason analysis that you just can't find if you only rely on team results and/or boxscore data.

I see why ESPN hired you. Awesome work! This is a really creative, and simple solution that I haven't really seen put into action before.

I also feel the need to make clear, that I don't want people to think I'm a Curry hater. I think he is deserving of a spot in this series, I just suppose that I still can't get behind the idea that he is contending for offensive GOAT. Maybe I am letting total and overall imapact influence but I prefer MJ and Lebron, and even at the PG spot, Magic and perhaps Nash for peak offensive play.

I suppose when I hear the word GOAT, I think of a sacred group, and Curry just doesn't give me that vibe at the moment.

Just give a few decades, and you will see Curry top pretty much every single advance stats available for offensive impact. Machine learning will make these kinda of analysis much more easier and more reliable than ever.

[LukaTheGOAT]

A few thoughts about raw on/off for the playoffs. I agree with you that you should never look at a raw on/off (or really any stat) and say "player X is better than players Y, Z and Q". Stats always have to be tied to what they're measuring, and this stat is (to whatever degree noise allows) is trying to correlate a player's presence with the team's scoring margins. That's not the same thing as 'this player is better'.

With that said, I do think people way over-react (and under-appreciate) the information that can be found in playoffs on/off +/-. Yes, it's noisy. And yes, you have to pay attention to sample sizes and be more discerning than if you had a perfect dataset to work with. But as I've pointed out before, there is usable signal within that noise, and I think that signal is important BECAUSE there's such a lack of great postseason +/- information to work with. Even in the larger regular season samples, it is ABUNDANTLY clear that the box scores aren't equipped to accurately estimate overall impact. That's why there's a need for the impact stat approach in the first place. That need doesn't just go away for the playoffs, so relying purely on the box scores in the playoffs is just as lacking as it would be in the regular season...more-so, actually, because of the very small samples. Even box score stats can be gamed in smaller samples, so if we only have the box scores to go off, way too much of the real story is lost.

Anyway. You made a good point about raw on/off not adjusting sufficiently for teammates. It does offer a first-blush, basic correction for teammates that purely raw +/- doesn't, but not enough. So, one quick hack would be to compare an individual's playoffs on/off +/- with the on/off +/- of his teammates. There's several ways to do this, but for the below example I compared the highest playoffs on/off with the second-best on the team (among big-minute rotation players), and note the difference.

So, for this exercise, I use a few general rules to increase the likelihood of useful signal in the midst of the small sample/potential noise.

Rules:
*Teams had to make at least the Conference Finals
*Noting only the highest on-off +/- scores on the team as the ones likely driving the positive margin
*Using difference b/w highest on/off score and second-highest as a means to separate strong individual impact from strong units
*I looked at every conference finalist from 1997 - 2020 for this data
*Setting thresholds (to sort the 96 represented seasons)
I took the average on/off +/- of the top player on each team (+16.4)
I then took the average difference b/w top and 2nd player on each team (+7.7)

Results summary of the "16/8" club
31 player playoffs where team leader on/off > 16, difference b/w P1 & P2 > 8
Only 4 players (LeBron, Shaq, KG, Duncan) made list more than once (accounted for 12 of the 31 16/8 seasons)
Notable 1-offs include 1997 Jordan & 2006 D. Wade

Typically, the non-megastars fit into one of several categories not well captured by boxscores. Few non-intuitive 1-offs.
Defense: '04 Ben Wallace, 02 Doug Christie, '15 Draymond Green, '11 Luol Deng, '13 Marc Gasol, '99 Robinson
Floor stretchers: '00 Reggie Miller, '01 Ray Allen, '10 Rashard Lewis
Floor generals: '02 Jason Kidd, '16 Kyle Lowry, '06 Steve Nash
Mega 6th men: '05 Manu GInobili, '12 James Harden
Past prime stars: '97 Clyde Drexler, '99 Arvydys Sabonis, (Jordan, Robinson & Reggie would fit here too)
('17 Kawhi Leonard makes list, w/ small asterisk since he only played 12 of the team's 16 games that postseason)

Anyway, just a simple exercise like this shows a lot of, IMO, useful info. For example, you mention that by raw playoffs on/off +/- David Robinson looks better than Shaq and LeBron. Well, here we see that '99 Robinson was the only version of late-prime DRob to make this list (by 2001, even though he had a great on/off, he had been surpassed by Duncan), while both Shaq and LeBron were on here multiple times (7 total, between them).

I should note, NOT making this list doesn't necessarily mean a player didn't have a great postseason impact in a given season. They could've had a great on/off in a great unit (e.g. 2011 Dirk met the on/off threshold, but not gap over 2nd because unit was strong). But, on that note...

Focus: you were talking about Steph, in a post that compares him with KD and also mentions Magic, MJ and LeBron's postseason peaks. While it may not be rigorous, it's at least worth noting, to me, that out of all the many times that Steph and KD have played on contending teams (and their entire careers were in the databall era), neither of them had even one postseason run make the above list. Of the others listed, LeBron has the most such seasons on record (4) and even though we only have the last 2 seasons of MJ's Bulls career, he reached the thresholds in '97 and really was barely short of the thresholds to have a second such postseason run in '98 (led Bulls w/ +14.6 postseason on/off, +6.3 higher than 2nd on team). When you factor in that most of the other players in Ben's peak project have seasons like that as well...like I said, I at least take note.

Following up, of the 2, Curry seems to have the more impressive postseason +/- record. As I noted in a previous post, Curry's raw on/off +/- in his prime-ish seasons was +12.6, while Durant's was +5.1. Curry's record looks more like what I described for 2011 Dirk, where he had high numbers but may have been parts of units such that we couldn't ascribe the impact just to him (e.g. the Draymond effect), whereas Durant really doesn't have a postseason record where he stands out even to that extent in the +/- data.

Anyway. All of this is obviously food for thought. But to me it is useful information that adds depth to postseason analysis that you just can't find if you only rely on team results and/or boxscore data.

I see why ESPN hired you. Awesome work! This is a really creative, and simple solution that I haven't really seen put into action before.

I also feel the need to make clear, that I don't want people to think I'm a Curry hater. I think he is deserving of a spot in this series, I just suppose that I still can't get behind the idea that he is contending for offensive GOAT. Maybe I am letting total and overall imapact influence but I prefer MJ and Lebron, and even at the PG spot, Magic and perhaps Nash for peak offensive play.

I suppose when I hear the word GOAT, I think of a sacred group, and Curry just doesn't give me that vibe at the moment.

Just give a few decades, and you will see Curry top pretty much every single advance stats available for offensive impact. Machine learning will make these kinda of analysis much more easier and more reliable than ever.

I wouldn't be surprised. And there is already plenty of data that suggests he is the Greatest offensive player of all-time. I still stand by the idea that he is very possibly the greatest offensive player ever in the RS. And though his plus-minus is impressive in the PS, I still do not buy the idea he is the #1 offensive player I would love to have in the PS. Maybe guys like Lebron and MJ with their defense is clouding my judgement, but I still would take Magic/Nash to buoy my offense over him for a playoff run.

[falcolombardi]

I just tabulated the career postseason rORtg numbers:

Jordan: +6.3 over 179 games
Lebron: +5.9 over 260 games

And of course we see that team offense edge for Jordan despite obviously lesser offensive talent. It doesn't matter what side of the argument you're on. If people don't flat out acknowledge that Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Kukoc are inferior offensive casts to Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love and Davis/whoever then this argument isn't worth having for me.

Here are your options:

Door #1: Prime LeBron led better playoff offenses in his prime than Jordan, but he also had more offensive talent around him.

Door #2: Jordan led better playoff offenses over their careers, but LeBron was racking up a lot of playoff games with very defensively-slanted rosters in his first Cleveland stint, so it's not as clear about who had more teammate talent.

It's a little disingenuous to go with the parts of each door that make Jordan look better, when the two are built on different premises.

We can go with Door #2 but Jordan also played on a few defensively slanted lineups, namely on the 1988 Bulls and the entire 2nd threepeat actually. And Lebron's defensively slanted lineups you're referring to were from 2006-2008?

Anyways this whole argument started with portability (or whatever the word is LOL) and ended up here. It started with me saying Jordan led better team offenses which is supported by extensive regular season rORtg numbers. Then folks responded with extremely noisy playoff data which in the end even if you ignore the noise still doesn't disprove what I said since Jordan has a very slight career edge. And of course the bottom line is that Lebron couldn't elevate his offenses to that level despite playing with more talent. Now do we definitively know that Jordan could have made those teams better on offense? Well we haven't seen MJ do it because he never played with Wade/Bosh or Kyrie/Love but we know that MJ has a better off-ball game.

lebron playoff data in his rime is like 2 and a half regular seasons of games, how is that noisy at that point? ben taylor peak project was about 2-3 year spans

also i think you understimate how many average to weak offensive casts lebron had

2003-2010, then 2019 is nearly half his career without star teammates (8/17)

jordan played only 4 of 11 full seasons without prime 90's pippen so if " more percentage of seasons in weak offensive rosters" is a criteria i think lebron is a bit ahead there, not that this means lebron good offensive rosters were not better than jordan's but is worth to keep in mind

also i (personally) think is unfair to include lebron age 18 and 19 seasons in a career average comparision with a guy who came into the league nearly 3 years older with a lot of college experience, just like it would be unfair to incluse jordan wizard years

fwiw lebron 11 postseason prime (over 2 full seasons worth of data) easily beats lebron regular seasons...and slighy beats both jordan reg and post seasons too.

there is a 2 point gap in lebron reg seasons and post seasons, which makes me think is not noise that his real best play was by far the post season

jordan full career reg season:+4.8

jordan full career post season:+5.5

jordan prime(87-98) reg seasons:+5.5

jordan prime (87-98)post seasons:+5.9

vs

lebron full career reg seasons:+3.5

lebron full career post seasons:+4.9

lebron prime(2008-2020) reg seasons:+4.5 (+4.9 minus 2019 outlier)

lebron prime (2008-2020) post seasons: +6.4

[Djoker]

Here are your options:

Door #1: Prime LeBron led better playoff offenses in his prime than Jordan, but he also had more offensive talent around him.

Door #2: Jordan led better playoff offenses over their careers, but LeBron was racking up a lot of playoff games with very defensively-slanted rosters in his first Cleveland stint, so it's not as clear about who had more teammate talent.

It's a little disingenuous to go with the parts of each door that make Jordan look better, when the two are built on different premises.

We can go with Door #2 but Jordan also played on a few defensively slanted lineups, namely on the 1988 Bulls and the entire 2nd threepeat actually. And Lebron's defensively slanted lineups you're referring to were from 2006-2008?

Anyways this whole argument started with portability (or whatever the word is LOL) and ended up here. It started with me saying Jordan led better team offenses which is supported by extensive regular season rORtg numbers. Then folks responded with extremely noisy playoff data which in the end even if you ignore the noise still doesn't disprove what I said since Jordan has a very slight career edge. And of course the bottom line is that Lebron couldn't elevate his offenses to that level despite playing with more talent. Now do we definitively know that Jordan could have made those teams better on offense? Well we haven't seen MJ do it because he never played with Wade/Bosh or Kyrie/Love but we know that MJ has a better off-ball game.

lebron playoff data in his rime is like 2 and a half regular seasons of games, how is that noisy at that point? ben taylor peak project was about 2-3 year spans

also i think you understimate how many average to weak offensive casts lebron had

2003-2010, then 2019 is nearly half his career without star teammates (8/17)

jordan played only 4 of 11 full seasons without prime 90's pippen so if " more percentage of seasons in weak offensive rosters" is a criteria i think lebron is a bit ahead there, not that this means lebron good offensive rosters were not better than jordan's but is worth to keep in mind

also i (personally) think is unfair to include lebron age 18 and 19 seasons in a career average comparision with a guy who came into the league nearly 3 years older with a lot of college experience, just like it would be unfair to incluse jordan wizard years

fwiw lebron 11 postseason prime (over 2 full seasons worth of data) easily beats lebron regular seasons...and slighy beats both jordan reg and post seasons too.

there is a 2 point gap in lebron reg seasons and post seasons, which makes me think is not noise that his real best play was by far the post season

jordan full career reg season:+4.8

jordan full career post season:+5.5

jordan prime(87-98) reg seasons:+5.5

jordan prime (87-98)post seasons:+5.9

vs

lebron full career reg seasons:+3.5

lebron full career post seasons:+4.9

lebron prime(2008-2020) reg seasons:+4.5 (+4.9 minus 2019 outlier)

lebron prime (2008-2020) post seasons: +6.4

Lebron did have weak offensive casts in 8/17 seasons but Jordan had weak offensive casts in 7/13 full seasons. Basically the first five seasons of his career then the two Wizards years. And of course in the other years both had good offensive casts, Lebron clearly had better ones. And despite that Jordan has better career regular season and even postseason rORtg numbers based on what you posted.

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5
-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

2017 Raptors, -1.0 rDRtg, +17.7 rTS%, +15.3 reFG%
2013 Bucks, -.7 rDRtg, +14.4 rTS%, +17.7 reFG%
2014 Nets, +1.0 rDRtg, +14.2 rTS%, +10.7 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2016 Raptors, -1.2 rDRtg, +12.6 rTS%, +16.0 reFG%
2010 Bulls, -2.3 rDRtg, +12.5 rTS%, +15.0 reFG%
2009 Hawks, -.7 rDRtg, +12.3 rTS%, +15.2 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

1992 Heat, +2.4 DRtg, +13.7 rTS%, +10.1 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Knicks, -.3 rDRtg, +10.9 rTS%, +6.2 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1988 Cavs, -2.0 rDRtg, +9.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%

This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100...It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

[WestGOAT]

Jordan's per 90 possessions playoff stats (1986-1998), split on opposition relative DRtg (+2 and above, between +2 and -2, and below -2):



All games versus opponents with a rDRtg lower than -2:

Spoiler:

LeBron's per 90 possessions playoff stats (2006-2020), split on opposition relative DRtg:



All games versus opponents with a rDRtg lower than -2:

Spoiler:

The number of opponents with a rDRtg lower than -2 faced by LeBron is almost as twice as much as Jordan faced (141 vs 72).

[Ryoga Hibiki]

On the flipside, Jordan had lesser impact metrics, but overall they are relatively comparable before Pippen emerged and after, hinting that his game doesn't really get impacted as heavily on offense with star wings.

I think this says more about Pippen's portability rather than jordon's.
I would have loved to see him paired with Wade.1


Sent from my Nokia 3210 using RealGM mobile app

[VanWest82]

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100...It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

Right, and so if we're tabulating biases in these analyses favor of Lebron, we have:

1. larger population samples due to more teams in Lebron's era which lead to higher relative rankings, especially at the extremes;
2. massive recent uptick in offenses everywhere (and corresponding uptick in DRTGs) which point to systemic scoring advantages that can't necessarily be controlled for in a relative context;
3. lower overall quality of Eastern conference offense compared to West in the 2010s which drove down East DRTGs due to overweight scheduling, thereby making them appear more robust than they actually were;
4. volume based analyses which are naturally going to tilt in Lebron's favor due to playing longer;
5. gaming the set up to only look at opposing defenses instead of overall opponent quality (i.e. pretending that opponent offense and having to play both ends of the floor has no material impact on one's own offensive contributions - see MJ 96 Finals);
6. picking arbitrary cut off points to game results;
7. ignoring massive advantages in teammate quality on offense which make scoring relatively easier;

Am I missing anything?

I keep saying this over and over but we really need line up data from the 80s and 90s to get a better handle on this stuff. And I'm not saying it won't be close either, or that Lebron might have an edge once all the data is in, but some of the approaches here look inherently biased at best and results driven at worst.

[falcolombardi]

We can go with Door #2 but Jordan also played on a few defensively slanted lineups, namely on the 1988 Bulls and the entire 2nd threepeat actually. And Lebron's defensively slanted lineups you're referring to were from 2006-2008?

Anyways this whole argument started with portability (or whatever the word is LOL) and ended up here. It started with me saying Jordan led better team offenses which is supported by extensive regular season rORtg numbers. Then folks responded with extremely noisy playoff data which in the end even if you ignore the noise still doesn't disprove what I said since Jordan has a very slight career edge. And of course the bottom line is that Lebron couldn't elevate his offenses to that level despite playing with more talent. Now do we definitively know that Jordan could have made those teams better on offense? Well we haven't seen MJ do it because he never played with Wade/Bosh or Kyrie/Love but we know that MJ has a better off-ball game.

lebron playoff data in his rime is like 2 and a half regular seasons of games, how is that noisy at that point? ben taylor peak project was about 2-3 year spans

also i think you understimate how many average to weak offensive casts lebron had

2003-2010, then 2019 is nearly half his career without star teammates (8/17)

jordan played only 4 of 11 full seasons without prime 90's pippen so if " more percentage of seasons in weak offensive rosters" is a criteria i think lebron is a bit ahead there, not that this means lebron good offensive rosters were not better than jordan's but is worth to keep in mind

also i (personally) think is unfair to include lebron age 18 and 19 seasons in a career average comparision with a guy who came into the league nearly 3 years older with a lot of college experience, just like it would be unfair to incluse jordan wizard years

fwiw lebron 11 postseason prime (over 2 full seasons worth of data) easily beats lebron regular seasons...and slighy beats both jordan reg and post seasons too.

there is a 2 point gap in lebron reg seasons and post seasons, which makes me think is not noise that his real best play was by far the post season

jordan full career reg season:+4.8

jordan full career post season:+5.5

jordan prime(87-98) reg seasons:+5.5

jordan prime (87-98)post seasons:+5.9

vs

lebron full career reg seasons:+3.5

lebron full career post seasons:+4.9

lebron prime(2008-2020) reg seasons:+4.5 (+4.9 minus 2019 outlier)

lebron prime (2008-2020) post seasons: +6.4

Lebron did have weak offensive casts in 8/17 seasons but Jordan had weak offensive casts in 7/13 full seasons. Basically the first five seasons of his career then the two Wizards years. And of course in the other years both had good offensive casts, Lebron clearly had better ones. And despite that Jordan has better career regular season and even postseason rORtg numbers based on what you posted.

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5
-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

2017 Raptors, -1.0 rDRtg, +17.7 rTS%, +15.3 reFG%
2013 Bucks, -.7 rDRtg, +14.4 rTS%, +17.7 reFG%
2014 Nets, +1.0 rDRtg, +14.2 rTS%, +10.7 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2016 Raptors, -1.2 rDRtg, +12.6 rTS%, +16.0 reFG%
2010 Bulls, -2.3 rDRtg, +12.5 rTS%, +15.0 reFG%
2009 Hawks, -.7 rDRtg, +12.3 rTS%, +15.2 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

1992 Heat, +2.4 DRtg, +13.7 rTS%, +10.1 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Knicks, -.3 rDRtg, +10.9 rTS%, +6.2 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1988 Cavs, -2.0 rDRtg, +9.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%

This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100...It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

well adressing your points

1- i didnt count jordan wizard years nor 86 reg season in my averages, so for the comparision i made is 4 weak cast years (85,87-89) and 7 strong ones 1990 and the ring years

2-jordan had better averages mainly because his first seasons pre mvp year were a lot better offensively than lebron first 5, however i dont consider this fair to a lebron who played his 3 first years in the time where jordan was in college, jordan came a lot closer to his prime in age and that gives him a stromg advantage in career averages (since again, i dont care about counting wizard years which would "balance" this)

lebron after he hit his prime (2008-2009) gives 12 years (as long as all of jordan career so not a smaller sample size) where his postseason offenses are better than any stretch (prime or full career, reg season or playoffs) of jordan bulls

lebron prime post season hits higher offensive heights than even jordan (not by much amd teams help but is a point to concede for lebron)

why i enfocate so much on post season? cause lebron teams consistently perform way better in post season, 1.5-2 points better.
jordan teams have an awesome but smaller half~ points improvements in post season

is not noise, lebron "real" play is clearly his postseason play, is not even close between reg season and post play

this IS also a reason to criticize cause it meams he is coasting on regular season, but i think we can agree at 11 postseason years of data is not noise or coincidence that he consistently does better in playoffs

and imo the more important for a player is if his game can translate to playoffs

[Ryoga Hibiki]

i have a hard time following why players should be penalized for how their teams play WITHOUT them

if players cannot find a way to work without their star on court maybe is because they are not that good or they only cam be good im secondary roles? how is that the fault of the guy who is not in the court?

I actually think that it's something to be considered, instead, to a certain extent.
I take the concept of "making your teammates better" to a broader level, if you force the team to be to dependant on you turning the others into mere executors you're part of the reason the team is less robust.

For instance, being too heliocentric and not moving off ball makes it more difficult to have a very good second creator in the team, making the minutes without you weaker (see Harden and Paul not working long term).

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using RealGM mobile app

[homecourtloss]

This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

Might add the volume, though the slash lines are somewhat well known. WestGoat has added the numbers in this thread.

About teams attempting to stop James as a scorer: it’s not that simple because a) difficult to execute defensive sets off of defensive rebounds and b) hard doubles on him rarely lead to offensive breakdowns as he doesn’t panic and look to pass out into neutral situations but instead makes passes that either lead to wide open shots or are one pass away from doing so.

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

Had 1992 Knicks on spreadsheet but forgot to post here. 1992 Knicks, -4.0 rDRtg, +2.1 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%.

LeBron has a higher number and percentage of good efficiency performances than Jordan comfortably outweighing slightly more poorer performances. This is especially true if you look relative eFG%. Jordan had quite a few poor shooting performances that were ameliorated by an abundance of free throws. One could say, “He became aggressive to get to the line,” but looking at some of those games (like the Sonics series), he’s getting plenty of calls on midrange turnaround jumpers). In any case,
from that list of strong defenses, Jordan had

—7 series (out of 18) in which he shot below what the team allowed in eFG%, though only slightly below average other than the Heat 1997 series.
—He had three really strong series (1991 Pistons, Lakers, and 1992 Blazers) in which he was around +9 rel eFG%.
—Out of all of his playoff series regardless of strength of defense played, Jordan had three that were above +10 rTS%, (one agaisnt the strong defense) and one that was above +10 rel eFG% (one against the strong defenses)

—James, on the other hand, had six series above +12 rTS% (two against the stronger defenses), and ELEVEN +10 rel eFG% series (six against the strong defenses). Slightly more poor performances but statistically significant more great performances.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100... It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

The bolded doesn’t matter at all when looking at the numbers in my post. When looking at rTS% and reFG%, the higher ORtgs don’t matter because we’re looking at relative numbers anyway. But to address the point, “Easier to score” translates into multiple things such as the ubiquity of more efficient offensive schemes that have led to better offense along with perhaps rules changes, but watching the games, there’s a lot of contact that goes uncalled (hands on players basically hand checking) and there are fewer free throws taken in 2021 and 2020 than ever before. Teams don’t have inefficient players pulling up from 19 feet today and don’t have turnover prone, poor passing, poor free throws shooting bigs operating in the post for poor offense. In any case, we’re looking at rTS% and reFG% so that doesn’t matter,

As for “it’s difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6, -7, -8 below league average,” perhaps, and the data show that Russell’s Celtics and the 1993 and 1994 Knicks are bigger outliers defensively than defensive teams in the 2000s and 2010s. It could be that league itself (for whatever reasons—I have theories) engendered greater parity amongst defensive teams. Regardless, even if the structure/rules/evolving nature of the game engendered more -6 and -7 defenses during LeBron’s era, he still wound up playing them and overall, was resilient in his offense against these defenses.

[Fadeaway_J]

i have a hard time following why players should be penalized for how their teams play WITHOUT them

if players cannot find a way to work without their star on court maybe is because they are not that good or they only cam be good im secondary roles? how is that the fault of the guy who is not in the court?

I actually think that it's something to be considered, instead, to a certain extent.
I take the concept of "making your teammates better" to a broader level, if you force the team to be to dependant on you turning the others into mere executors you're part of the reason the team is less robust.

For instance, being too heliocentric and not moving off ball makes it more difficult to have a very good second creator in the team, making the minutes without you weaker (see Harden and Paul not working long term).

Sent from my Nokia 3210 using RealGM mobile app

Steph is probably the GOAT off-ball superstar and his team are perennially trash with him off the court...

[sansterre]

This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

Might add the volume, though the slash lines are somewhat well known. WestGoat has added the numbers in this thread.

About teams attempting to stop James as a scorer: it’s not that simple because a) difficult to execute defensive sets off of defensive rebounds and b) hard doubles on him rarely lead to offensive breakdowns as he doesn’t panic and look to pass out into neutral situations but instead makes passes that either lead to wide open shots or are one pass away from doing so.

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

Had 1992 Knicks on spreadsheet but forgot to post here. 1992 Knicks, -4.0 rDRtg, +2.1 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%.

LeBron has a higher number and percentage of good efficiency performances than Jordan comfortably outweighing slightly more poorer performances. This is especially true if you look relative eFG%. Jordan had quite a few poor shooting performances that were ameliorated by an abundance of free throws. One could say, “He became aggressive to get to the line,” but looking at some of those games (like the Sonics series), he’s getting plenty of calls on midrange turnaround jumpers). In any case,
from that list of strong defenses, Jordan had

—7 series (out of 18) in which he shot below what the team allowed in eFG%, though only slightly below average other than the Heat 1997 series.
—He had three really strong series (1991 Pistons, Lakers, and 1992 Blazers) in which he was around +9 rel eFG%.
—Out of all of his playoff series regardless of strength of defense played, Jordan had three that were above +10 rTS%, (one agaisnt the strong defense) and one that was above +10 rel eFG% (one against the strong defenses)

—James, on the other hand, had six series above +12 rTS% (two against the stronger defenses), and ELEVEN +10 rel eFG% series (six against the strong defenses). Slightly more poor performances but statistically significant more great performances.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100... It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

The bolded doesn’t matter at all when looking at the numbers in my post. When looking at rTS% and reFG%, the higher ORtgs don’t matter because we’re looking at relative numbers anyway. But to address the point, “Easier to score” translates into multiple things such as the ubiquity of more efficient offensive schemes that have led to better offense along with perhaps rules changes, but watching the games, there’s a lot of contact that goes uncalled (hands on players basically hand checking) and there are fewer free throws taken in 2021 and 2020 than ever before. Teams don’t have inefficient players pulling up from 19 feet today and don’t have turnover prone, poor passing, poor free throws shooting bigs operating in the post for poor offense. In any case, we’re looking at rTS% and reFG% so that doesn’t matter,

As for “it’s difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6, -7, -8 below league average,” perhaps, and the data show that Russell’s Celtics and the 1993 and 1994 Knicks are bigger outliers defensively than defensive teams in the 2000s and 2010s. It could be that league itself (for whatever reasons—I have theories) engendered greater parity amongst defensive teams. Regardless, even if the structure/rules/evolving nature of the game engendered more -6 and -7 defenses during LeBron’s era, he still wound up playing them and overall, was resilient in his offense against these defenses.

I am dedicating my post to saying that I really appreciated the legwork and analyses in both this and its prior post. Obviously these are only so persuasive, but I think it's very well done (and I don't know that I would have thought of looking into this).