Race for Ping Pong Balls

drsd · Post #421 » by **drsd** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:24 am

Orlando is now 2 games worse than the 5th worst OKC
Orlando is now 1 1/2 game better than 3rd worst Detroit.
....
Chicago is now tied for the 9th/10th worst team with Washington.
Chicago is 1/2 game better than 8th worst Toronto.
Chicago is 2 games worse than 11th worst New Orleans.
....
Chicago is tied with Washington for the final play-in slot.
Chicago is 1/2 game above Toronto for that final play-in slot.
....
The computers predict Detroit and Orlando will tie for the 3rd/4th worst record.
The computers like both Toronto and Washington to overtake Chicago, meaning that Chicago would finish as the 7th/8th worst team, with Sacramento, and not be in the play-ins.**
LINK

** = Chicago and Sacramento would split lottery balls and then if neither won the lottery, a coin flip would determine the 7 or 8 draft slot (or lower tie break if a worst team overtakes both).

basketballRob · Post #422 » by **basketballRob** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:07 pm

drsd wrote:Orlando is now 2 games worse than the 5th worst OKC
Orlando is now 1 1/2 game better than 3rd worst Detroit.
....
Chicago is now tied for the 9th/10th worst team with Washington.
Chicago is 1/2 game better than 8th worst Toronto.
Chicago is 2 games worse than 11th worst New Orleans.
....
Chicago is tied with Washington for the final play-in slot.
Chicago is 1/2 game above Toronto for that final play-in slot.
....
The computers predict Detroit and Orlando will tie for the 3rd/4th worst record.
The computers like both Toronto and Washington to overtake Chicago, meaning that Chicago would finish as the 7th/8th worst team, with Sacramento, and not be in the play-ins.**
LINK

** = Chicago and Sacramento would split lottery balls and then if neither won the lottery, a coin flip would determine the 7 or 8 draft slot (or lower tie break if a worst team overtakes both).

Chicago is tied for 10th, they're 3 1/2 games out of 9th and I really think they won't hold onto 10th. Toronto plays OKC today and should tie them also. The Wizards play Okc tomorrow and Chicago plays Boston.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

drsd · Post #423 » by **drsd** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:34 pm

basketballRob wrote:Chicago is tied for 10th, they're 3 1/2 games out of 9th and I really think they won't hold onto 10th. Toronto plays OKC today and should tie them also. The Wizards play Okc tomorrow and Chicago plays Boston.

Beyond the play-ins, also Chicago is 2 games away from being the 11th worst team. It seems very unlikely that Chicago would catch the Pelicans.

..

ogmagicfan · Post #424 » by **ogmagicfan** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:18 pm

We simply aren’t tanking hard enough, there really isn’t much more to say.

The Rockets are holding out 6 of their starters/rotational players. The Thunder are shamelessly tanking. Pistons have been “resting” players and selling games against the Clips. Toronto is holding out 5-6 players even after being fined by the league. Cavs have been holding out/resting their Sexland guards for longer than expected times throughout the season.

We really are gonna fall right outside the top 4 on the strength of this at this rate, and set our franchise back years in the process. I’ve seen this story too many times the past decade.

When you have a DYING need for a dynamic guard, and there are 3 of them in the top 4 of a draft, you do everything you can to get them. The lack of urgency really is concerning when every other team is operating differently and should highlight the reluctancy of other teams to trade back with our pick & Chicago’s pick.

KillMonger · Post #425 » by **KillMonger** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:47 pm

At the end of the day its still luck but it does kinda sting to see other teams taking advantage of the opportunity.....I remember dallas doing the MOST to tank....they even got fined for it but it didn't stop them and they ended up getting rewarded with Luka.....For me it's not so much having the best odds it's just that i don't want to fall too far....The closer you are to the top of the draft you can only fall so far

basketballRob · Post #426 » by **basketballRob** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:49 pm

drsd wrote:
basketballRob wrote:Chicago is tied for 10th, they're 3 1/2 games out of 9th and I really think they won't hold onto 10th. Toronto plays OKC today and should tie them also. The Wizards play Okc tomorrow and Chicago plays Boston.

Beyond the play-ins, also Chicago is 2 games away from being the 11th worst team. It seems very unlikely that Chicago would catch the Pelicans.

..

They are like 1 game from being the 8th worst.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

drsd · Post #427 » by **drsd** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:54 pm

basketballRob wrote:
drsd wrote:
basketballRob wrote:Chicago is tied for 10th, they're 3 1/2 games out of 9th and I really think they won't hold onto 10th. Toronto plays OKC today and should tie them also. The Wizards play Okc tomorrow and Chicago plays Boston.

Beyond the play-ins, also Chicago is 2 games away from being the 11th worst team. It seems very unlikely that Chicago would catch the Pelicans.

..
They are like 1 game from being the 8th worst.

The benefit for Orlando of Chicago missing the play-ins is that the draft pick will not be capable of slotting to #15.

By far the most likely outcomes are Orlando to finish 3rd or 4th worst and Chicago to finish from 7th to 10th worst, but the play-in is possible in that range.

..

basketballRob · Post #428 » by **basketballRob** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:59 pm

drsd wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
drsd wrote:
Beyond the play-ins, also Chicago is 2 games away from being the 11th worst team. It seems very unlikely that Chicago would catch the Pelicans.

..
They are like 1 game from being the 8th worst.

The benefit for Orlando of Chicago missing the play-ins is that the draft pick will not be capable of slotting to #15.

By far the most likely outcomes are Orlando to finish 3rd or 4th worst and Chicago to finish from 7th to 10th worst, but the play-in is possible in that range.

..

Can't see them finishing higher than the Wizards now, although Hachimura went out with a knee injury last night.

I think I'm going to side with Mark Cuban on the play-in tournament be the worst thing the NBA has ever did. Now you have more teams tanking, so they aren't in the tournament.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Bergmaniac · Post #429 » by **Bergmaniac** » Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:20 pm

The Wizards have a really easy schedule on paper while the Bulls have a really tough one, so things are looking good for the Chicago pick we own. On the other hand, the Wizards play mostly against East teams and they are way better against the West for some reason, plus they always play down to the opposition, even against blatantly tanking teams, so there is still a chance for the Bulls to finish higher.

The ironic thing is that the Wizards improvement lately is largely thanks to the centre Daniel Gafford, which they got from Chicago at the trade deadline. He's been a perfect fit for them so I think they will do well the rest of the way if they stay healthy.

Post #430 » by **Knightro** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:56 am

Rockets get win No. 15
Kings get win No. 23
Raptors get win No. 24

Magic have 18 wins.

The Magic are almost certainly going to end up with the 3rd, 4th or 5th worst record at this point.

basketballRob · Post #431 » by **basketballRob** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:59 am

Knightro wrote:Rockets get win No. 15
Kings get win No. 22
Raptors get win No. 24

Magic have 18 wins.

The Magic are almost certainly going to end up with the 3rd, 4th or 5th worst record at this point.

Sacramento got 23.

https://www.espn.com/nba/standings

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

basketballRob · Post #432 » by **basketballRob** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:02 am

Cleveland plays Detroit tomorrow night, so that's a win win. Washington and OKC is a win either way also.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

RookieStar · Post #433 » by **RookieStar** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:13 am

Im just worried about OKC.. they going in hard for us.

basketballRob · Post #434 » by **basketballRob** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 2:18 am

RookieStar wrote:Im just worried about OKC.. they going in hard for us.

I think they get below us, hopefully Detroit wins like 5 more.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

Nyce_1 · Post #435 » by **Nyce_1** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 3:15 am

without:

AG going off vs Nets;
Fournier's game winner vs Suns;
Clippers resting PG & MCW having an impact;
Pelicans resting Zion & BI;
Bulls stinking it up & Ennis going off....

...we'd be 13-43, and sitting with the worst record (#1 tankathon) in the league. Sheeeeeit, that Cole game winner vs Wolves may come back to haunt us, lol.

drsd · Post #436 » by **drsd** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:34 am

Knightro wrote:The Magic are almost certainly going to end up with the 3rd, 4th or 5th worst record at this point.

RookieStar wrote:Im just worried about OKC.. they going in hard for us.

I would not say this is probable. The Magic is 2 full games worse than OKC. Yes the Thunder is on a 0-10 run, but in that same interval, the Magic was 2-8.

But the real reason the Magic is not probable to slot 5 is the Pistons. For Orlando to slot 5, both OKC and Detroit thus need to co-Power tank.

The computers like Orlando to finish as the 3rd worst team; I think on balance, the 4th worst seems more likely to me. (We learned a lot about this team with the Houston loss, after all; Orlando is currently incapable of playing defense.).

..

drsd · Post #437 » by **drsd** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:42 am

Orlando is 2 games worse than the 5th worst OKC
Orlando is 1 game better than 3rd worst Detroit.
....
Chicago is now tied for the 8th/9th/10th worst team with Washington and Toronto.
Chicago is 1/2 game better than 7th worst Sacramento.
Chicago is 1 1/2 games worse than 11th worst New Orleans.
....
Chicago is now OUTSIDE the final play-in slot, as Toronto has more wins than Chicago.

..

basketballRob · Post #438 » by **basketballRob** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:55 am

drsd wrote:Orlando is 2 games worse than the 5th worst OKC
Orlando is 1 game better than 3rd worst Detroit.
....
Chicago is now tied for the 8th/9th/10th worst team with Washington and Toronto.
Chicago is 1 1/2 game better than 7th worst Sacramento.
Chicago is 1 1/2 games worse than 11th worst New Orleans.
....
Chicago is now OUTSIDE the final play-in slot, as Toronto has more wins than Chicago.

..

Chicago's a 1/2 game better than Sacramento and could be tied at 7th with a loss to Boston.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

pepe1991 · Post #439 » by **pepe1991** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:19 am

Jesus Christ lottery is set to be at July 29th... It's ages away from today.

billy5783 · Post #440 » by **billy5783** » Mon Apr 19, 2021 11:51 am

pepe1991 wrote:Jesus Christ lottery is set to be at July 29th... It's ages away from today.

That’s the draft itself. Lottery is June 22. Still feels ages away. I can only watch the same highlight videos so many times!

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums