Greatest Peaks series (Thinking Basketball/Ben Taylor)

[Djoker]

lebron playoff data in his rime is like 2 and a half regular seasons of games, how is that noisy at that point? ben taylor peak project was about 2-3 year spans

also i think you understimate how many average to weak offensive casts lebron had

2003-2010, then 2019 is nearly half his career without star teammates (8/17)

jordan played only 4 of 11 full seasons without prime 90's pippen so if " more percentage of seasons in weak offensive rosters" is a criteria i think lebron is a bit ahead there, not that this means lebron good offensive rosters were not better than jordan's but is worth to keep in mind

also i (personally) think is unfair to include lebron age 18 and 19 seasons in a career average comparision with a guy who came into the league nearly 3 years older with a lot of college experience, just like it would be unfair to incluse jordan wizard years

fwiw lebron 11 postseason prime (over 2 full seasons worth of data) easily beats lebron regular seasons...and slighy beats both jordan reg and post seasons too.

there is a 2 point gap in lebron reg seasons and post seasons, which makes me think is not noise that his real best play was by far the post season

jordan full career reg season:+4.8

jordan full career post season:+5.5

jordan prime(87-98) reg seasons:+5.5

jordan prime (87-98)post seasons:+5.9

vs

lebron full career reg seasons:+3.5

lebron full career post seasons:+4.9

lebron prime(2008-2020) reg seasons:+4.5 (+4.9 minus 2019 outlier)

lebron prime (2008-2020) post seasons: +6.4

Lebron did have weak offensive casts in 8/17 seasons but Jordan had weak offensive casts in 7/13 full seasons. Basically the first five seasons of his career then the two Wizards years. And of course in the other years both had good offensive casts, Lebron clearly had better ones. And despite that Jordan has better career regular season and even postseason rORtg numbers based on what you posted.

LeBron faced more elite defenses in the East and then in the Finals than did Jordan and fared better scoring efficiency wise agaisnt those defenses than did Jordan, and even more so if you look at free throw rates and relative effective FG %s. Of course, Jordan had higher volume.

Through 2018, 47% of LeBron’s playoff series were played against top 5-top 6 basically tied for top 5 defenses; LeBron played against 6 of the top 30 [4-2] and 7 of the top 35 defenses [4-3] in NBA history (rDRtg) which is ludicrous considering the events that have to happen for that to happen.

Top defenses faced

-8 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-7 rDRtg: Jordan 0, LeBron 3
-6 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 4
-5 rDRtg: Jordan 1, LeBron 1
-4 rDRtg: Jordan 7, LeBron 5
-3 rDRtg: Jordan 4, LeBron 3

-3 DRtg or better: Jordan 14, LeBron 17
-4 DRtg or better: Jordan 10, LeBron 14
-5 DRtg or better: Jordan 3, LeBron 9
-6 DRtg or better: Jordan 2, LeBron 8
-7 DRtg or better: Jordan 1, LeBron 4

LeBron

2008 Celtics, -8.6 rDRtg: -6.0 rTS%, -7.3% reFG% to what Celtics allowed
2014 Pacers, -7.4 rDRtg: +9.6 rTS%, +13.1 reFG%
2011 Celtics, -7.0 rDRtg: +1.2 rTS%, +5.0 reFG%
2011 Bulls, -7.0 rDRtg: +4.6% rTS%, +.7 reFG%
2007 Spurs, -6.6 rDRtg: -11.3% rTS%, -9.3 reFG%
2012 Celtics, -6.4 rDRtg: +6.0 rTS%, +10.3 reFG%
2009 Magic, -6.4 rDRtg: +4.7% rTS%, +5.8 reFG%
2013 Pacers,-6.1 rDRtg: +7.4 rTS%, +11.0 reFG%
2016 Hawks, -5.0 rDRtg: +3.2 rTS%, +8.0 reFG%
2017 Warriors, -4.8 rDRtg: +7.8 rTS%, +12.9 reFG%
2018 Celtics, -4.7 rDRtg: +5.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2013 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg: -.6 rTS%, + .7 reFG%
2015 Warriors, -4.2 rDRtg: -5.7 rTS%, -3.9 reFG%
2010 Celtics, -3.8 rDRtg: +1.3 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2012 Knicks, -3.6 rDRtg: +7.0 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
2006 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg: -2.0 rTS%, -.9 reFG%
2014 Bobcats, -2.9 rDRtg: +13.0 rTS%, +11.6 reFG%
2018 Raptors, -2.7 rDRtg: +2.7 rTS%, +6.7 reFG%
2013 Bulls, -2.7 rDRtg: +3.8 rTS%, -.2 reFG%
2016 Warriors, -2.6 rDRtg: +2.1 rTS%, +5.4 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

2017 Raptors, -1.0 rDRtg, +17.7 rTS%, +15.3 reFG%
2013 Bucks, -.7 rDRtg, +14.4 rTS%, +17.7 reFG%
2014 Nets, +1.0 rDRtg, +14.2 rTS%, +10.7 reFG%
2014 Spurs, -4.3 rDRtg, +13.8 rTS%, +16.6 reFG%
2016 Raptors, -1.2 rDRtg, +12.6 rTS%, +16.0 reFG%
2010 Bulls, -2.3 rDRtg, +12.5 rTS%, +15.0 reFG%
2009 Hawks, -.7 rDRtg, +12.3 rTS%, +15.2 reFG%

Jordan

1993 Knicks, -8.3 rDRtg, -1.4 rTS%, -1.2 reFG%
1997 Heat, -6.1 rDRtg, -6.1 rTS%, -7.1 reFG%
1996 Sonics, -5.5 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, -4.0 reFG%
1989 Cavs, -4.9 rDRtg, +6.1 rTS%, +5.3 reFG%
1990 Pistons, -4.6 rDRtg, +2.9 rTS%, +2.4 reFG%
1986 Celtics, -4.6 rDRtg, +4.3 rTS%, +4.5 reFG%
1997 Hawks, -4.4 rDRtg, -3.0 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1985 Bucks, -4.3 rDRtg, +2.2 rTS, -2.5 reFG%
1996 Knick, -4.1 rDRtg, -.8 rTS%, -1.0 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1996 Heat, -3.8 rDRtg, +5.7 rTS%, -2.3 reFG%
1998 Pacers, -3.4 rDRtg, +3.2 rTS%, +3.2 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Pistons, -3.1 rDRtg, +2.4 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%
1991 Lakers, -2.9 rDRtg, +7.8 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1988 Pistons, -2.7 rDRtg, +1.1 rTS%, +1.1 reFG%
1997 Jazz, -2.7 rDRtg, -.4 rTS%, +.1 reFG%

Best rTS% and reFG% performances

1992 Heat, +2.4 DRtg, +13.7 rTS%, +10.1 reFG%
1991 Pistons, -3.3 rDRtg, +11.2 rTS%, +9.2 reFG%
1989 Knicks, -.3 rDRtg, +10.9 rTS%, +6.2 reFG%
1992 Blazers, -4.0 rDRtg, +8.6% rTS%, +9.4 reFG%
1988 Cavs, -2.0 rDRtg, +9.4 rTS%, +8.4 reFG%

This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100...It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

well adressing your points

1- i didnt count jordan wizard years nor 86 reg season in my averages, so for the comparision i made is 4 weak cast years (85,87-89) and 7 strong ones 1990 and the ring years

2-jordan had better averages mainly because his first seasons pre mvp year were a lot better offensively than lebron first 5, however i dont consider this fair to a lebron who played his 3 first years in the time where jordan was in college, jordan came a lot closer to his prime in age and that gives him a stromg advantage in career averages (since again, i dont care about counting wizard years which would "balance" this)

lebron after he hit his prime (2008-2009) gives 12 years (as long as all of jordan career so not a smaller sample size) where his postseason offenses are better than any stretch (prime or full career, reg season or playoffs) of jordan bulls

lebron prime post season hits higher offensive heights than even jordan (not by much amd teams help but is a point to concede for lebron)

why i enfocate so much on post season? cause lebron teams consistently perform way better in post season, 1.5-2 points better.
jordan teams have an awesome but smaller half~ points improvements in post season

is not noise, lebron "real" play is clearly his postseason play, is not even close between reg season and post play

this IS also a reason to criticize cause it meams he is coasting on regular season, but i think we can agree at 11 postseason years of data is not noise or coincidence that he consistently does better in playoffs

and imo the more important for a player is if his game can translate to playoffs

With all due respect I don't understand why we'd collectively go through all this mental gymnastics to figure out which years to include or exclude.

I don't think Jordan's or Lebron's playoff career includes any years where they are clearly out of their primes. Rookie Jordan is close enough and by 2006 Lebron is close enough to his prime too.

[falcolombardi]

Lebron did have weak offensive casts in 8/17 seasons but Jordan had weak offensive casts in 7/13 full seasons. Basically the first five seasons of his career then the two Wizards years. And of course in the other years both had good offensive casts, Lebron clearly had better ones. And despite that Jordan has better career regular season and even postseason rORtg numbers based on what you posted.



This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100...It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

well adressing your points

1- i didnt count jordan wizard years nor 86 reg season in my averages, so for the comparision i made is 4 weak cast years (85,87-89) and 7 strong ones 1990 and the ring years

2-jordan had better averages mainly because his first seasons pre mvp year were a lot better offensively than lebron first 5, however i dont consider this fair to a lebron who played his 3 first years in the time where jordan was in college, jordan came a lot closer to his prime in age and that gives him a stromg advantage in career averages (since again, i dont care about counting wizard years which would "balance" this)

lebron after he hit his prime (2008-2009) gives 12 years (as long as all of jordan career so not a smaller sample size) where his postseason offenses are better than any stretch (prime or full career, reg season or playoffs) of jordan bulls

lebron prime post season hits higher offensive heights than even jordan (not by much amd teams help but is a point to concede for lebron)

why i enfocate so much on post season? cause lebron teams consistently perform way better in post season, 1.5-2 points better.
jordan teams have an awesome but smaller half~ points improvements in post season

is not noise, lebron "real" play is clearly his postseason play, is not even close between reg season and post play

this IS also a reason to criticize cause it meams he is coasting on regular season, but i think we can agree at 11 postseason years of data is not noise or coincidence that he consistently does better in playoffs

and imo the more important for a player is if his game can translate to playoffs

With all due respect I don't understand why we'd collectively go through all this mental gymnastics to figure out which years to include or exclude.

I don't think Jordan's or Lebron's playoff career includes any years where they are clearly out of their primes. Rookie Jordan is close enough and by 2006 Lebron is close enough to his prime too.

i think full career is too much noise,

the way i see it is that prime lebron had a 12 year stretch where he played about as many games as jordan full career and at least by post season play standards (which i consider the most important part of a player resume, how they play in the most impirtant part of the season, not winning rings but the level of play in the post season) equalizing/beating his offensive results by a biy (and i already see him as better in defense)

and in that prime stretch that is as long as all of jordan bulls career he matches/beats slightly (imo) not just jordan career, but also jordan prime too so is not just comparing lebron best with jordan average, since i consider that lebron best also beats jordan best and not precisely in smaller sample size

at that point why would i care about full career average?,

all those extra seasons lebron has over jordan i see as longevity "extra credit"

tldr: i think lebron longevity brings down his averages when he has a 11 seaso stretch that imo beats (by a little bit) the whole 11 seasons jordan played with bulls

i hope this explains what my point of view here is

[Djoker]

This is good analysis. But I have some feedback.

As you said Jordan had higher volume. You should include the scoring volume.

It's also worth noting the contrast in defensive styles. Teams came into series with the game plan of stopping Jordan's scoring given his aggression and super high scoring loads. With Lebron it's often unclear whether teams even attempted to stop his scoring or even at times tried to make him into a scorer. For example it's well known that the Mavs in 2011 and Spurs in 2013 and 2014 had the game plan to simply back off of Lebron and let him shoot 20+ foot jumpers.

Might add the volume, though the slash lines are somewhat well known. WestGoat has added the numbers in this thread.

About teams attempting to stop James as a scorer: it’s not that simple because a) difficult to execute defensive sets off of defensive rebounds and b) hard doubles on him rarely lead to offensive breakdowns as he doesn’t panic and look to pass out into neutral situations but instead makes passes that either lead to wide open shots or are one pass away from doing so.

You really should add the volume. I'll take the best efficiency performances on your list.

Jordan

1992 Heat - 45.0 PPG (3 games)
1991 Pistons - 29.8 PPG (4 games)
1989 Knicks - 35.7 PPG (6 games)
1992 Blazers - 35.8 PPG (6 games)
1988 Cavaliers - 45.2 PPG (5 games)

Average in These Games: 37.9 PPG

Lebron

2017 Raptors - 36.0 PPG (4 games)
2013 Bucks - 24.5 PPG (4 games)
2014 Nets - 30.0 PPG (5 games)
2014 Spurs - 28.2 PPG (5 games)
2016 Raptors - 26.0 PPG (6 games)
2010 Bulls - 31.8 PPG (5 games)
2009 Hawks - 33.8 PPG (4 games)

Average in These Games: 29.8 PPG


I don't need to tell you that an 8 PPG edge is... HUGE!

And while Lebron may have had more good efficiency performances on your list, he also had more bad efficiency performances. Using rTS%... Jordan's worst was -6.1% against the 97 Heat then his second worst was -3.0% against the 97 Hawks. All his others were around league average efficiency and can't even be classified as inefficient. Meanwhile Lebron put up -11.3% against the 07 Spurs, -6.0% against the 08 Celtics, -5.7% against the 15 Warriors.

I think your list is missing some teams as well. For instance I don't see the 1992 Knicks.

Had 1992 Knicks on spreadsheet but forgot to post here. 1992 Knicks, -4.0 rDRtg, +2.1 rTS%, +1.8 reFG%.

LeBron has a higher number and percentage of good efficiency performances than Jordan comfortably outweighing slightly more poorer performances. This is especially true if you look relative eFG%. Jordan had quite a few poor shooting performances that were ameliorated by an abundance of free throws. One could say, “He became aggressive to get to the line,” but looking at some of those games (like the Sonics series), he’s getting plenty of calls on midrange turnaround jumpers). In any case,
from that list of strong defenses, Jordan had

—7 series (out of 18) in which he shot below what the team allowed in eFG%, though only slightly below average other than the Heat 1997 series.
—He had three really strong series (1991 Pistons, Lakers, and 1992 Blazers) in which he was around +9 rel eFG%.
—Out of all of his playoff series regardless of strength of defense played, Jordan had three that were above +10 rTS%, (one agaisnt the strong defense) and one that was above +10 rel eFG% (one against the strong defenses)

—James, on the other hand, had six series above +12 rTS% (two against the stronger defenses), and ELEVEN +10 rel eFG% series (six against the strong defenses). Slightly more poor performances but statistically significant more great performances.

To be honest I looked at your data again and I'm confused. The best efficiency performances are not even from the list of great defensive teams you listed above it. For instance Lebron's list of best performances only has one team among good defenses you listed and that's the 2014 Spurs. Jordan's list also contains just two... 1991 Pistons and 1992 Brazers.

And last but not least, the gaps in DRtg from best to worst in the entire league seems to be smaller in Jordan's era. In other words it's difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6 or -7 or -8 below league average when the gap between the best and worst in the league might be like 10 per 100... It also might or might not surprise people that that 2021 Lakers that are currently #1 in DRtg would be tied for 12th in the league in 2011 and 26th in the league in 2001. From about 2016 onwards the league starting getting very offensively oriented. Thus today's elite defense is probably easier to score on then even a merely good defense from 20 years ago. For numbers spanning from 1985 to 2015 or so it's not a big issue but 2016 to present it gets very dicey because league average efficiency starts climbing rapidly.

The bolded doesn’t matter at all when looking at the numbers in my post. When looking at rTS% and reFG%, the higher ORtgs don’t matter because we’re looking at relative numbers anyway. But to address the point, “Easier to score” translates into multiple things such as the ubiquity of more efficient offensive schemes that have led to better offense along with perhaps rules changes, but watching the games, there’s a lot of contact that goes uncalled (hands on players basically hand checking) and there are fewer free throws taken in 2021 and 2020 than ever before. Teams don’t have inefficient players pulling up from 19 feet today and don’t have turnover prone, poor passing, poor free throws shooting bigs operating in the post for poor offense. In any case, we’re looking at rTS% and reFG% so that doesn’t matter,

As for “it’s difficult for the best defensive teams in that era to be -6, -7, -8 below league average,” perhaps, and the data show that Russell’s Celtics and the 1993 and 1994 Knicks are bigger outliers defensively than defensive teams in the 2000s and 2010s. It could be that league itself (for whatever reasons—I have theories) engendered greater parity amongst defensive teams. Regardless, even if the structure/rules/evolving nature of the game engendered more -6 and -7 defenses during LeBron’s era, he still wound up playing them and overall, was resilient in his offense against these defenses.

The bolded matters a lot. A -8 defense in a league with high average DRtg can be worse than a -4 defense in a league with a low average DRtg. Absolute DRtg has to be taken into account somehow. Like i said this becomes a real problem for the period of 2016 to present.

I never claimed Lebron doesn't have resilient offense but so does Jordan and his offensive output is generally higher.

[Djoker]

well adressing your points

1- i didnt count jordan wizard years nor 86 reg season in my averages, so for the comparision i made is 4 weak cast years (85,87-89) and 7 strong ones 1990 and the ring years

2-jordan had better averages mainly because his first seasons pre mvp year were a lot better offensively than lebron first 5, however i dont consider this fair to a lebron who played his 3 first years in the time where jordan was in college, jordan came a lot closer to his prime in age and that gives him a stromg advantage in career averages (since again, i dont care about counting wizard years which would "balance" this)

lebron after he hit his prime (2008-2009) gives 12 years (as long as all of jordan career so not a smaller sample size) where his postseason offenses are better than any stretch (prime or full career, reg season or playoffs) of jordan bulls

lebron prime post season hits higher offensive heights than even jordan (not by much amd teams help but is a point to concede for lebron)

why i enfocate so much on post season? cause lebron teams consistently perform way better in post season, 1.5-2 points better.
jordan teams have an awesome but smaller half~ points improvements in post season

is not noise, lebron "real" play is clearly his postseason play, is not even close between reg season and post play

this IS also a reason to criticize cause it meams he is coasting on regular season, but i think we can agree at 11 postseason years of data is not noise or coincidence that he consistently does better in playoffs

and imo the more important for a player is if his game can translate to playoffs

With all due respect I don't understand why we'd collectively go through all this mental gymnastics to figure out which years to include or exclude.

I don't think Jordan's or Lebron's playoff career includes any years where they are clearly out of their primes. Rookie Jordan is close enough and by 2006 Lebron is close enough to his prime too.

i think full career is too much noise,

the way i see it is that prime lebron had a 12 year stretch where he played about as many games as jordan full career and at least by post season play standards (which i consider the most important part of a player resume, how they play in the most impirtant part of the season, not winning rings but the level of play in the post season) equalizing/beating his offensive results by a biy (and i already see him as better in defense)

and in that prime stretch that is as long as all of jordan bulls career he matches/beats slightly (imo) not just jordan career, but also jordan prime too so is not just comparing lebron best with jordan average, since i consider that lebron best also beats jordan best and not precisely in smaller sample size

at that point why would i care about full career average?,

all those extra seasons lebron has over jordan i see as longevity "extra credit"

tldr: i think lebron longevity brings down his averages when he has a 11 seaso stretch that imo beats (by a little bit) the whole 11 seasons jordan played with bulls

i hope this explains what my point of view here is

We aren't discussing longevity here.

This thread and Ben Taylor's project is comparing who was better at basketball at their best. All I'm saying you want to compare their impact on playoff offenses but taking a couple of playoff runs is really really noisy... so why not take their whole careers when 1985 and 1998 Jordan are both relatively close to his prime and 2006 and 2020 Lebron are close to his prime as well...

Even with the years you chose, Jordan has 1 possession edge per 100 in the regular season and Lebron has 0.5 possessions edge per 100 in the playoffs. That kind of small playoff margin means exactly... nothing. You're gonna claim Lebron led better playoff offenses based on 0.5 rORtg edge. That's ridiculous...

[falcolombardi]

With all due respect I don't understand why we'd collectively go through all this mental gymnastics to figure out which years to include or exclude.

I don't think Jordan's or Lebron's playoff career includes any years where they are clearly out of their primes. Rookie Jordan is close enough and by 2006 Lebron is close enough to his prime too.

i think full career is too much noise,

the way i see it is that prime lebron had a 12 year stretch where he played about as many games as jordan full career and at least by post season play standards (which i consider the most important part of a player resume, how they play in the most impirtant part of the season, not winning rings but the level of play in the post season) equalizing/beating his offensive results by a biy (and i already see him as better in defense)

and in that prime stretch that is as long as all of jordan bulls career he matches/beats slightly (imo) not just jordan career, but also jordan prime too so is not just comparing lebron best with jordan average, since i consider that lebron best also beats jordan best and not precisely in smaller sample size

at that point why would i care about full career average?,

all those extra seasons lebron has over jordan i see as longevity "extra credit"

tldr: i think lebron longevity brings down his averages when he has a 11 seaso stretch that imo beats (by a little bit) the whole 11 seasons jordan played with bulls

i hope this explains what my point of view here is

We aren't discussing longevity here.

This thread and Ben Taylor's project is comparing who was better at basketball at their best. All I'm saying you want to compare their impact on playoff offenses but taking a couple of playoff runs is really really noisy... so why not take their whole careers when 1985 and 1998 Jordan are both relatively close to his prime and 2006 and 2020 Lebron are close to his prime as well...

Even with the years you chose, Jordan has 1 possession edge per 100 in the regular season and Lebron has 0.5 possessions edge per 100 in the playoffs. That kind of small playoff margin means exactly... nothing. You're gonna claim Lebron led better playoff offenses based on 0.5 rORtg edge. That's ridiculous...

that is not what i think, i just said i believe lebron is better even without accounting for longevity, that is what i meant with 2003-2008 being extra credit for him

i think lebron 12 seasons between 2008-2020 beat jordan 11 and change seasons with the bulls in general by a small edge

is a small edge but so is jordan edge in reg seasons you mention i just choose to give more value to postseason where lebron to me seems to have a small edge

these are generational level players, if the margins were not... well, marginal we wouldnt have so much debate comparing them right now

also is not a couple runs but literally 11 runs and around 200 games or so un very different rosters. that is in line with 2-3 seasons, roughly what taylor counts for players peaks here

hell, bill walton whole peak was probably less games than that and he had enough sample size to make the project

[Threetimes10]

LeBron was playing the 08 Celtics, the 09 Magic, 10 Celtics, 11 Celtics, 11 Bulls, 12 Celtics, 13 Pacers, 14 Pacers. All of them were all-time level defenses. Jordan never faced a defense of that caliber outside of the Knicks.

LeBron was also facing the Warriors who had the greatest collection of perimeter defensive talent in history. Iguodala, Green, Durant, and Klay are all-defensive caliber players who were guarding LeBron. MJ never faced perimeter defenders of that caliber in the playoffs.

Durant is all-defensive caliber now? The only elite defenders of that group is Iguodala/Green.

[Djoker]

i think full career is too much noise,

the way i see it is that prime lebron had a 12 year stretch where he played about as many games as jordan full career and at least by post season play standards (which i consider the most important part of a player resume, how they play in the most impirtant part of the season, not winning rings but the level of play in the post season) equalizing/beating his offensive results by a biy (and i already see him as better in defense)

and in that prime stretch that is as long as all of jordan bulls career he matches/beats slightly (imo) not just jordan career, but also jordan prime too so is not just comparing lebron best with jordan average, since i consider that lebron best also beats jordan best and not precisely in smaller sample size

at that point why would i care about full career average?,

all those extra seasons lebron has over jordan i see as longevity "extra credit"

tldr: i think lebron longevity brings down his averages when he has a 11 seaso stretch that imo beats (by a little bit) the whole 11 seasons jordan played with bulls

i hope this explains what my point of view here is

We aren't discussing longevity here.

This thread and Ben Taylor's project is comparing who was better at basketball at their best. All I'm saying you want to compare their impact on playoff offenses but taking a couple of playoff runs is really really noisy... so why not take their whole careers when 1985 and 1998 Jordan are both relatively close to his prime and 2006 and 2020 Lebron are close to his prime as well...

Even with the years you chose, Jordan has 1 possession edge per 100 in the regular season and Lebron has 0.5 possessions edge per 100 in the playoffs. That kind of small playoff margin means exactly... nothing. You're gonna claim Lebron led better playoff offenses based on 0.5 rORtg edge. That's ridiculous...

that is not what i think, i just said i believe lebron is better even without accounting for longevity, that is what i meant with 2003-2008 being extra credit for him

i think lebron 12 seasons between 2008-2020 beat jordan 11 and change seasons with the bulls in general by a small edge

is a small edge but so is jordan edge in reg seasons you mention i just choose to give more value to postseason where lebron to me seems to have a small edge

these are generational level players, if the margins were not... well, marginal we wouldnt have so much debate comparing them right now

also is not a couple runs but literally 11 runs and around 200 games or so un very different rosters. that is in line with 2-3 seasons, roughly what taylor counts for players peaks here

hell, bill walton whole peak was probably less games than that and he had enough sample size to make the project

The margins in their basic boxscore stats aren't marginal at all. Using 1989-1991 MJ vs. 2012-2013 LBJ which Ben did, Jordan gave you 5 more points a game on similar efficiency, similar creation and lower turnovers. MJ was clearly a much more productive offensive player. Advanced stats are closer like OBPM, OWS, AuPM, APM, PIPM etc. but even in those Jordan has a lead. Jordan's offensive peak is clearly better and even Ben agrees and has Jordan a whole tier ahead on offense (along with Magic and Curry).

Thus one's valuation of Lebron's defense would have to be very high to put him on equal ground with MJ as far as peak. Considering that the relative value of individual offense vs individual defense for perimeter players is clearly in favor of offense, Lebron would have to be 2-3 tiers better defensively and that can't be justified. Probably the most optimistic view of peak Lebron's defense is that he's better than Jordan but in the same tier.

Regarding the rORtg...

The regular seasons we can actually compare in their prime years because we are talking 500-800+ games of data with a balanced representation of all the teams in the league. With playoffs you are talking about 100-150 games against a small subset of teams.

Making any conclusion about a 0.5 possessions per 100 edge in playoff rORtg is ridiculous... and that's of course assuming that everyone agrees that your selection of seasons is fair. And assuming that the two men had equal offensive talent which they obviously didn't. Even the most biased Lebron fans can admit that Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever constitute much better offensive support than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Kukoc. I would hope so anyways but I'm not getting my hopes up...

[Jaivl]

Probably the most optimistic view of peak Lebron's defense is that he's better than Jordan but in the same tier.

...

Even the most biased Lebron fans can admit that Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever constitute much better offensive support than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Kukoc. I would hope so anyways but I'm not getting my hopes up...

I mean, even the most biased Jordan fans would admit than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Rodman constitutes much better defensive support than Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever.

LeBron managed better peak offenses (17 vs 91) with more help and similarly worse peak defenses (09, 20 vs 96) with worse help. So which one gives?

Also, weren't the '94 Bulls a +10 playoff offense without Jordan? Are we sure Pippen/Grant/other players because it's not a 3v3 are that much worse than Irving + struggling Love?

It's bad faith argumentation anyway but hey, everybody can play this game of cherry-picking.

[Djoker]

Probably the most optimistic view of peak Lebron's defense is that he's better than Jordan but in the same tier.

...

Even the most biased Lebron fans can admit that Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever constitute much better offensive support than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Kukoc. I would hope so anyways but I'm not getting my hopes up...

I mean, even the most biased Jordan fans would admit than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Rodman constitutes much better defensive support than Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever.

LeBron managed better peak offenses (17 vs 91) with more help and similarly worse peak defenses (09, 20 vs 96) with worse help. So which one gives?

Also, weren't the '94 Bulls a +10 playoff offense without Jordan? Are we sure Pippen/Grant/other players because it's not a 3v3 are that much worse than Irving + struggling Love?

It's bad faith argumentation anyway but hey, everybody can play this game of cherry-picking.

I think Davis/whoever is really really good defensive help. But yes Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Rodman are clearly better than Wade/Bosh and Irving/Love defensively. Obviously... However to have an objective discussion I'd also like to hear that Wade/Bosh, Kyrie/Love and Davis/whoever are clearly better offensively than Pippen/Grant and Pippen/Kukoc. That would help everyone know there is at least some objectivity on the other side.

1994 Bulls being +10 rORtg playoff offense exactly shows exactly why single year playoff data is more or less useless. Their -0.2 rORtg in the regular season is probably a lot lot closer to their real offensive abilities.

I'm not cherrypicking at all. I've spent the last 2 games of this thread telling falcolombardi to use career numbers instead of picking and choosing seasons to make his point. I've also pointed out the extreme noise and representation bias in the playoff data. But I think it's falling on deaf ears. It is what it is.

[colts18]

If you look at the teams with the best Defensive ratings in the 3 point era, LeBron has faced 11 of the top 100 in the playoffs while MJ only faced 3. LeBron faced 4 top 50 defenses to MJ's 1.

17. 2012 Bos
26. 2008 Bos
34. 2014 Ind
48. 2013 Ind
51. 2007 SAS
60. 2011 Bos
61. 2011 Chi
76. 2012 NYK
88. 2015 GSW
89. 2016 Atl
99. 2013 SAS

43. 93 NYK
65. 1997 Mia
93. 1998 Ind

https://stathead.com/basketball/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=1&order_by=def_rtg&type=team_totals&year_min=1980&year_max=2021&lg_id=NBA

[LakerLegend]

If you look at the teams with the best Defensive ratings in the 3 point era, LeBron has faced 11 of the top 100 in the playoffs while MJ only faced 3. LeBron faced 4 top 50 defenses to MJ's 1.

17. 2012 Bos
26. 2008 Bos
34. 2014 Ind
48. 2013 Ind
51. 2007 SAS
60. 2011 Bos
61. 2011 Chi
76. 2012 NYK
88. 2015 GSW
89. 2016 Atl
99. 2013 SAS

43. 93 NYK
65. 1997 Mia
93. 1998 Ind

https://stathead.com/basketball/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=1&order_by=def_rtg&type=team_totals&year_min=1980&year_max=2021&lg_id=NBA

Everything for LeBron after 2011 is playing on Super Teams, and I'm sorry but 2012 New York with half the team injured and a fringe playoff type team like Indiana are not impressive.

[colts18]

If you look at the teams with the best Defensive ratings in the 3 point era, LeBron has faced 11 of the top 100 in the playoffs while MJ only faced 3. LeBron faced 4 top 50 defenses to MJ's 1.

17. 2012 Bos
26. 2008 Bos
34. 2014 Ind
48. 2013 Ind
51. 2007 SAS
60. 2011 Bos
61. 2011 Chi
76. 2012 NYK
88. 2015 GSW
89. 2016 Atl
99. 2013 SAS

43. 93 NYK
65. 1997 Mia
93. 1998 Ind

https://stathead.com/basketball/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=1&order_by=def_rtg&type=team_totals&year_min=1980&year_max=2021&lg_id=NBA

Everything for LeBron after 2011 is playing on Super Teams, and I'm sorry but 2012 New York with half the team injured and a fringe playoff type team like Indiana are not impressive.

Look at these superteams. It's embarrassing that LeBron even lost a game with this team.

[LakerLegend]

If you look at the teams with the best Defensive ratings in the 3 point era, LeBron has faced 11 of the top 100 in the playoffs while MJ only faced 3. LeBron faced 4 top 50 defenses to MJ's 1.

17. 2012 Bos
26. 2008 Bos
34. 2014 Ind
48. 2013 Ind
51. 2007 SAS
60. 2011 Bos
61. 2011 Chi
76. 2012 NYK
88. 2015 GSW
89. 2016 Atl
99. 2013 SAS

43. 93 NYK
65. 1997 Mia
93. 1998 Ind

https://stathead.com/basketball/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=1&order_by=def_rtg&type=team_totals&year_min=1980&year_max=2021&lg_id=NBA

Everything for LeBron after 2011 is playing on Super Teams, and I'm sorry but 2012 New York with half the team injured and a fringe playoff type team like Indiana are not impressive.

Look at these superteams. It's embarrassing that LeBron even lost a game with this team.

Curious, why dont you post LeBron's efficiency stats from the 2015 Playoffs/Finals...

[homecourtloss]

Probably the most optimistic view of peak Lebron's defense is that he's better than Jordan but in the same tier.

...

Even the most biased Lebron fans can admit that Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever constitute much better offensive support than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Kukoc. I would hope so anyways but I'm not getting my hopes up...

I mean, even the most biased Jordan fans would admit than Pippen/Grant or Pippen/Rodman constitutes much better defensive support than Wade/Bosh, Irving/Love and Davis/whoever.

LeBron managed better peak offenses (17 vs 91) with more help and similarly worse peak defenses (09, 20 vs 96) with worse help. So which one gives?

Also, weren't the '94 Bulls a +10 playoff offense without Jordan? Are we sure Pippen/Grant/other players because it's not a 3v3 are that much worse than Irving + struggling Love?

It's bad faith argumentation anyway but hey, everybody can play this game of cherry-picking.

+8.5 rORtg over 7 games vs the Knicks
+13.6 rORtg over 3 games vs. the Cavs

That’s damn impressive even if the sample size is small.

[falcolombardi]

btw anyone knows where to look for player (as opposed to team) and specific lineups offensive and defensive ratings?

i am curious to learn how the on-off data of lebron/jordan compares to their teams overall offenses

i dont know if that data is available tho

[LukaTheGOAT]

Everything for LeBron after 2011 is playing on Super Teams, and I'm sorry but 2012 New York with half the team injured and a fringe playoff type team like Indiana are not impressive.

Look at these superteams. It's embarrassing that LeBron even lost a game with this team.

Curious, why dont you post LeBron's efficiency stats from the 2015 Playoffs/Finals...

Well, people have posted plenty of nice stats in this thread when he wasn't on superteams, so assuming you have looked through that, it doesn't look like it would matter to you what anyone posts.

[Djoker]

If you look at the teams with the best Defensive ratings in the 3 point era, LeBron has faced 11 of the top 100 in the playoffs while MJ only faced 3. LeBron faced 4 top 50 defenses to MJ's 1.

17. 2012 Bos
26. 2008 Bos
34. 2014 Ind
48. 2013 Ind
51. 2007 SAS
60. 2011 Bos
61. 2011 Chi
76. 2012 NYK
88. 2015 GSW
89. 2016 Atl
99. 2013 SAS

43. 93 NYK
65. 1997 Mia
93. 1998 Ind

https://stathead.com/basketball/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=1&order_by=def_rtg&type=team_totals&year_min=1980&year_max=2021&lg_id=NBA

Good post but Lebron also faced more bad defenses than MJ.

Top 10 Worst Defenses Faced (DRtg) - Lebron's Opposition in Bold

1. 2020 Por (114.8)
2. 2020 Den (111.0)
3. 1992 Mia (110.9)
4. 2007 Was (110.6)
5. 1993 Atl (110.2)
6. 2020 Hou (110.1)
7. 2008 Was (109.6)
8. 2020 Mia (109.5)
9. 2017 Ind (108.8)
10. 2017 Bos (108.4)

Most notably we see all of the opponents in the 2020 title run on here.

[Peregrine01]

In the past, I've done a marathon post comparing Kobe and Dirk, and a different one comparing Kobe and Durant. I don't know that I've ever done a big one on DIrk vs Durant. I'd like to, but unfortunately the schedule conflicts. But if I did, I'm pretty sure it'd come out that I've got Dirk solidly higher/more impactful than Durant.

In the two previously mentioned posts, I came out with Kobe solidly higher than Durant, and was somewhat surprised when I dug into the first comp and had it come out essentially a draw with advantage Kobe. Dirk had historic impact in the regular season over the course of his career, but closer examination pointed out to me that in the first half of his career (despite his box score numbers being typically excellent), he didn't seem to have the impact in the postseason to match the regular season. I typically credit that, at least in part, to Dirk being defended as a big man in the regular season and often more like a wing in the postseason. That a good chunk of his non-boxscore value rested in his ability to create spacing and warp defenses by pulling opposing bigs into positions that didn't let them maximize their team defense/rebounding, and thus creating higher quality looks for the rest of his team on a consistent basis. That it wasn't until the Carlisle era toward the end of the decade, after the MVP year, that Dirk really developed his post game to a level that he could command that defenses collapse on him no matter how they chose to defend him...and that's a big reason why his impact translated more faithfully to the postseason during his later years, including the championship run in 2011.

Well, in an oversimplification to get at the point quicker, I feel like Durant's game as a 3/4 has been most similar to early-career Dirk. Durant may have even better boxscore numbers, particularly scoring and assist-based numbers, than Dirk had at his best in the regular or postseason. But I still have never seen Durant ever reach quite the level of impact on his team's results that Dirk had regularly over the course of his career. And I think it's for a similar reason...KD is an all-history finisher, at amazing efficiency, but (on the scale of the other all-history offensive players) he just didn't collapse defenses to the same level. It's on a similar spectrum with peers like Anthony Davis or Carmelo Anthony on offense...they're going to fill it up, create great volume, often on outstanding efficiency...for themselves. But they aren't collapsing the opposing defenses the way that players that are better combos of elite scoring AND strong passing/floor generalship are, and (in comparison to someone like Dirk) they aren't warping defenses to the same degree and allowing their teammates to operate against imbalanced coverages the way that a big (who was ELITE at the pick-and-roll/pop game) like Dirk could do.

So, yeah. I believe Dirk peaked higher than KD did. Doesn't mean necessarily that Durant doesn't belong in this discussion, but if he's here I'd have liked to see Dirk in here as well. Just my 2 pennies

Dre, you just put my intimations about KD's game and why his impact doesn't seem to match with his gaudy box score stats better than I ever could. Thanks for that. I hadn't realized it but Dirk pre-08 is very similar to KD in that both were highly efficient volume scorers but didn't warp defenses in a way that created easier looks for teammates.

[falcolombardi]

If you look at the teams with the best Defensive ratings in the 3 point era, LeBron has faced 11 of the top 100 in the playoffs while MJ only faced 3. LeBron faced 4 top 50 defenses to MJ's 1.

17. 2012 Bos
26. 2008 Bos
34. 2014 Ind
48. 2013 Ind
51. 2007 SAS
60. 2011 Bos
61. 2011 Chi
76. 2012 NYK
88. 2015 GSW
89. 2016 Atl
99. 2013 SAS

43. 93 NYK
65. 1997 Mia
93. 1998 Ind

https://stathead.com/basketball/tsl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=1&order_by=def_rtg&type=team_totals&year_min=1980&year_max=2021&lg_id=NBA

Good post but Lebron also faced more bad defenses than MJ.

Top 10 Worst Defenses Faced (DRtg) - Lebron's Opposition in Bold

1. 2020 Por (114.8)
2. 2020 Den (111.0)
3. 1992 Mia (110.9)
4. 2007 Was (110.6)
5. 1993 Atl (110.2)
6. 2020 Hou (110.1)
7. 2008 Was (109.6)
8. 2020 Mia (109.5)
9. 2017 Ind (108.8)
10. 2017 Bos (108.4)

Most notably we see all of the opponents in the 2020 title run on here.

you are using raw numbers instead of relative ratings like we have been using so far

a lot of those defense were above averege in their respective seasons

[70sFan]

Why is this thread becoming another LeBron vs Jordan thread...?