Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[pcbothwel]

First of all: *number* of years. *Amount* of money, but *number* of dollars. Sorry... I'm a writer, can't help it.

Now that we've got that important issue out of the way,

1. How do you know how Davis will "age?" I don't know how he'll age -- do you know something I don't know?

2. Your list of other overpaid players is obviously irrelevant. I can also give you a list -- a much longer list -- of guys who are far better value per dollar than Davis. Hell, you can come up with that list too. Those are the players you want.

Davis is overpaid based on his production last year, when he was better than this year. Ergo, he's overpaid this year. He'll be overpaid next year, when his salary goes up a bit. & he'll be overpaid later on when it goes up again.

Davis Bertans is a tremendous shooter. He also seems like a nice guy. His acquisition was one of the best bargain moves I've ever seen -- kudos to Tommy for it.

Failing to turn that no-cost move into a free R1 pick was dumb, however. Re-signing him for $60+m was dumber yet. Moves like this are how bad teams stay bad.

1) Uggghhh, How many examples do you need me to point too? Shooters are always the guys that maintain their productivity in their mid 30's. Look at all the guys with a 3PAr above 70%...Marc Gasol, Joe Ingles, Danny Green, Ellington, etc....
Korvers best years were from 30-33...Steph Curry now at 33 is having an MVP caliber year because of his shooting.
Ray Allen, Lowry, Jeff Green, Marvin Williams, Frye...
I'd ask you the opposite... what elite 3 point shooters aged poorly? And by that I mean, at a greater rate than their peers.

2) How is it irrelevant? I just gave you list of Free agents the same age as Bertans. If we conclude that players who are equal to/less productive than Bertans sign for more money, then the market would be telling us that Bertans provides surplus value.
And what UFA's are you referring to are "Far better value per dollar than Davis"?
Please dont include Rookie contracts or ring chasers on minimum salaries like Batum.

Im looking at the UFA's over the last 2 years. Gallo, Morris, KCP, Hood, etc. Bertans is better value. Same with Horford, Kemba, Barnes, Redick, Dedmon, Ross, Klay?... Bertans is clearly better value.

[payitforward]

Forget it... let's not dive down the same rathole once a week, ok?

Instead, let's return to the important subject: amount vs. number. Stick with me here...

There is an enormous amount of sand on the beach.
There are an enormous number of grains of sand on the beach.

Thus, Davis gets "a pile of money" (a pile is an amount) for "many years" (i.e. years come in numbers).

You wouldn't say he earns "many money;" "amount of years" is wrong in just the same way.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Forget it... let's not dive down the same rathole once a week, ok?

Instead, let's return to the important subject: amount vs. number. Stick with me here...

There is an enormous amount of sand on the beach.
There are an enormous number of grains of sand on the beach.

Thus, Davis gets "a pile of money" (a pile is an amount) for "many years" (i.e. years come in numbers).

You wouldn't say he earns "many money;" "amount of years" is wrong in just the same way.

I am struggling to decide if this post is over my head or above my head.

I’m also wondering if you have to post over 10,000 posts to be upgraded to a Real GM. (Ducks away from PIF’s scorn)

[penbeast0]

Back to potential new team members. John Henson just got cut loose. He's another mobile shotblocker though his desire may be a question at times.

[payitforward]

Forget it... let's not dive down the same rathole once a week, ok?

Instead, let's return to the important subject: amount vs. number. Stick with me here...

There is an enormous amount of sand on the beach.
There are an enormous number of grains of sand on the beach.

Thus, Davis gets "a pile of money" (a pile is an amount) for "many years" (i.e. years come in numbers).

You wouldn't say he earns "many money;" "amount of years" is wrong in just the same way.

I am struggling to decide if this post is over my head or above my head.

I’m also wondering if you have to post over 10,000 posts to be upgraded to a Real GM. (Ducks away from PIF’s scorn)

It's not above your head, nor is it over your head!

Not through your head either, because the "head" is a mirror not a piece of glass. So, instead, it's off your head -- or at least I'm off mine!

Nor am I "scorn"y -- if anything I'm sometimes a little corny....

It's kind of amazing to have won 5 of our last 6 games, don't you think? Seems like we really might get into the Plow Under Tournament -- & maybe we'll be plowing some other teams under rather than being plowed ourselves!

[nate33]

Back to potential new team members. John Henson just got cut loose. He's another mobile shotblocker though his desire may be a question at times.

I was shocked to see that Henson is already 30 years old. It feels like he is still a young guy that everyone is expecting to break out soon. Guess what? It's not happening. He is what he is, a fringe player. Maybe a contender would take him on as an 11th man, but non-contenders are going to be better off using that roster spot to develop someone with more upside.

[penbeast0]

30, wow, me too. Thought he was maybe 26,27. You are right.

[Dark Faze]

I'm of the mind to attempt to trade *up* or keep the pick. If I could get to #5 for #9 + Rui, I'd make that deal. Kuminga passes the eye test, and I think he gets too much flack for his shooting percentages. LaMelo shot the ball terribly at 18 playing in a men's league as well.

Short of that, I'd also just go ahead and keep the pick if we don't move up and pick Giddey or Mitchell or whatever. I think the FO will be tempted to make a swap to land Lauri or Collins or something, but I don't think it ends up being the smart play. We've got a history of picks in the late lotto range not going our way, but we also have a history of a bunch of short term trades that we almost instantly regretted as well.

[nate33]

I'm of the mind to attempt to trade *up* or keep the pick. If I could get to #5 for #9 + Rui, I'd make that deal. Kuminga passes the eye test, and I think he gets too much flack for his shooting percentages. LaMelo shot the ball terribly at 18 playing in a men's league as well.

Short of that, I'd also just go ahead and keep the pick if we don't move up and pick Giddey or Mitchell or whatever. I think the FO will be tempted to make a swap to land Lauri or Collins or something, but I don't think it ends up being the smart play. We've got a history of picks in the late lotto range not going our way, but we also have a history of a bunch of short term trades that we almost instantly regretted as well.

I seriously doubt any team with a top 4 pick would be willing to trade down for any of our assets other than Beal.

[Dark Faze]

Hm? I specifically said #5. I could see a team in that slot being iffy about the choices available there and preferring Rui + wherever our pick lands to maximize their odds of getting value in that slot.

[nate33]

Hm? I specifically said #5. I could see a team in that slot being iffy about the choices available there and preferring Rui + wherever our pick lands to maximize their odds of getting value in that slot.

I wouldn't trade Rui + #10 for Kuminga.

[BigA]

Bullets Forever piece says Wiz should go all in to win next year, trade the 2021 1st.

Next season, Bradley Beal will enter what could be the last year of his contract, with the year after having a player option that he will almost assuredly opt-out of. Russell Westbrook will also still have two years left on his massive supermax contract, while also getting ready to turn 33 at the beginning of next season. These point to something clear: Washington can’t slow down now. Again, they need to go all in.

That means there is no time to develop players whom Washington thinks can eventually be good players. They need players who can produce right away. With that said, and based on the point raised earlier about the draft this summer, I believe this team should strongly consider packaging their first-round pick with players to get another star/starter-level player on this team.

Maybe after a couple more wins there will be people arguing they should extend Brooks.

[nate33]

Bullets Forever piece says Wiz should go all in to win next year, trade the 2021 1st.

Next season, Bradley Beal will enter what could be the last year of his contract, with the year after having a player option that he will almost assuredly opt-out of. Russell Westbrook will also still have two years left on his massive supermax contract, while also getting ready to turn 33 at the beginning of next season. These point to something clear: Washington can’t slow down now. Again, they need to go all in.

That means there is no time to develop players whom Washington thinks can eventually be good players. They need players who can produce right away. With that said, and based on the point raised earlier about the draft this summer, I believe this team should strongly consider packaging their first-round pick with players to get another star/starter-level player on this team.

That's easier said than done.

The problem is that starting-caliber players tend to come with starting-caliber salaries, and we are already pushing the luxtax as it is. We lack "filler" contracts to package with our pick to land that starting caliber player.

For example, if we packaged our pick with Bryant and Hutchison to land a "starting caliber" player, what are the odds that that player, who would be making no more than $15.8M, is going to be a material upgrade over Bryant himself?

[payitforward]

Yeah, that article is kind of silly.

First you overestimate how good your team is. Then you overestimate how easy, or even possible, it would be to land a significant one-player team upgrade. Then you say, "All right -- let's really go for it."

Then, when Tommy is fired for following your brain-dead strategy, you have some more advice for the next GM.

[NatP4]

Hachimura goes to the Spurs for the 14th overall pick and we turn it into Josh Giddey. Giddey has missed some shots in his last couple of games, so the hype has tailed off a bit. I expect him to be there in the mid to late teens. Our pick at 9-10ish is hands down Franz Wagner. Cherry on top is Joel Ayayi in round 2 with a purchased pick.

Westbrook Giddey
Beal Mathews Ayayi
Wagner Bonga
Avdija Bertans
Gafford Bryant

[Dat2U]

Yeah, that article is kind of silly.

First you overestimate how good your team is. Then you overestimate how easy, or even possible, it would be to land a significant one-player team upgrade. Then you say, "All right -- let's really go for it."

Then, when Tommy is fired for following your brain-dead strategy, you have some more advice for the next GM.

It wouldn't surprise me. Especially if they continue to finish the season strong and make the playoffs and Shepp stays. They manage to win one game in the playoffs, all they'll talk about is how they are one piece away.

[Dat2U]

Hachimura goes to the Spurs for the 14th overall pick and we turn it into Josh Giddey. Giddey has missed some shots in his last couple of games, so the hype has tailed off a bit. I expect him to be there in the mid to late teens. Our pick at 9-10ish is hands down Franz Wagner. Cherry on top is Joel Ayayi in round 2 with a purchased pick.

Westbrook Giddey
Beal Mathews Ayayi
Wagner Bonga
Avdija Bertans
Gafford Bryant

I don't buy the mocks. Giddey won't be there at 14. Or at least he shouldn't be.

Wiz definitely not trading Rui for a mid-first either.

[payitforward]

Ayayi looks like he will be a good NBA player -- he would be a great pick in R2.

Great would be if we could find someone interested in taking a flyer on Hutchison in return for a R2 pick. Pipe dream....

[9 and 20]

We are the team taking a flyer on Hutchison. Unless he performs, we're his second and last chance before permanent labeling as a minimum salary (at best) guy - and nobody trades second round picks for those guys.

I could definitely see them trading the pick, maybe together with Bryant. I think it would be for someone coming to end of their rookie deal. We almost traded for Markanen from the Bulls - maybe a sign and trade for him? Not sure what that trade would look like. He's not as good as Bertans now, but maybe the team believes in him. He's young, and checks the 'international' box.

[nate33]

I could definitely see them trading the pick, maybe together with Bryant. I think it would be for someone coming to end of their rookie deal. We almost traded for Markanen from the Bulls - maybe a sign and trade for him? Not sure what that trade would look like. He's not as good as Bertans now, but maybe the team believes in him. He's young, and checks the 'international' box.

I really don't think they'll trade Bryant. They consider him a "home grown" guy, one of their core. Remember, they signed Robin Lopez instead of guys like Noel or Tristian Thompson because Lopez was one of the few free agent centers who would agree to a one-year deal and to not complain about coming off the bench behind Bryant.

I think the tandem of Bryant and Gafford should work pretty well together going forward.