Race for Ping Pong Balls

GelbeWand09 · Post #501 » by **GelbeWand09** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 1:43 pm

Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:I'm worried about the Pacers game coming up. Turner night be out for the season, as and Warren has already been gone for the season.

Meh. I'm not super worried about it. The Magic already played them once post trades and had MCW, Ennis and got a good coin toss game from Ross (10-15 FG) and still lost.

I wouldn't be shocked if all those veteran guys were out indefinitely.

Turner and Warren didn't play in that game either.

Yea, with the current young dudes only team, we are the 2nd worst team in the leaque. For me its between us & OKC for the 3rd & 4th spot. I think we both overtake the Pistons.

3rd place would be great because even if 1 team jumps we still get a top 4 player & i think Mobley goes top 3, so 1 of the guards for us.

Post #502 » by **Knightro** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:25 pm

Games of Interest 4/20

18 win Magic at 31 win Hawks
15 win Wolves at 23 win Kings

basketballRob · Post #503 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Apr 20, 2021 7:14 pm

That would be big if the TWolves pull of 2 wins in a row on the Kings.

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Post #504 » by **Def Swami** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 1:52 am

Read on Twitter

thelead · Post #505 » by **thelead** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:10 am

Def Swami wrote:

Read on Twitter

RookieStar · Post #506 » by **RookieStar** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:11 am

Def Swami wrote:

Read on Twitter

we are going strong. now hopefully solidy this spot before we cast our aspiratins on the 2nd spot.

basketballRob · Post #507 » by **basketballRob** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:12 am

Minnesota plays Sacramento 2 nights in a row.

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thelead · Post #508 » by **thelead** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 2:38 am

basketballRob wrote:Minnesota plays Sacramento 2 nights in a row.

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If Minny could ever learn how to play defense they would get out of the lottery. They're just terrible on that side of the ball. They've given up 49 pts in 13:30 so far

thelead · Post #509 » by **thelead** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:17 am

Minnesota will win the game. We might be able to catch them if we continue to lose

Nyce_1 · Post #510 » by **Nyce_1** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:21 am

Wolves win! And they play the Kings again tomorrow.

PrimeThyme · Post #511 » by **PrimeThyme** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:22 am

Houston should lose out with their remaining schedule.

Post #512 » by **Knightro** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:25 am

PrimeThyme wrote:Houston should lose out with their remaining schedule.

Yeah I mean they're going to be locked into the worst record here in another week or so when Minnesota likely beats them in 6 days.

The question is how many more can the Wolves realistically win? They still have the Kings, Rockets, Magic and Pistons. They win all those and that's 20.

Could the Magic finish the year with just one more win?

Nyce_1 · Post #513 » by **Nyce_1** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:29 am

We need to lose out. Do that and I guarantee we finish the season with 2nd best odds.

Wolves Remaining Schedule:

Spoiler:

Pistons Remaining Schedule:

Spoiler:

Magic Remaining Schedule:

Spoiler:

ogmagicfan · Post #514 » by **ogmagicfan** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:37 am

Cavs, Pistons, & Timberwolves game are gonna be big for the Magic.

OKC Thunder have 3 games against the Kings left in their schedule. Fingers crossed they beat them atleast once. Kings have a historically bad defensive team on their hands.

ogmagicfan · Post #515 » by **ogmagicfan** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 4:38 am

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wolves win 1 or 2 more games that they start tanking & “resting” players. Which would bode badly for when we matchup against them.

Dub_Sax · Post #516 » by **Dub_Sax** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:15 am

I can't wait to see what the pro tankers say when the magic end up with the 3rd worst record then end up getting the 5th pick..

Oh wait, I know. They'll say we didn't "tank properly" lol.. fkoutta here

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Post #517 » by **SOUL** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:49 am

Dub_Sax wrote:I can't wait to see what the pro tankers say when the magic end up with the 3rd worst record then end up getting the 5th pick..

Oh wait, I know. They'll say we didn't "tank properly" lol.. fkoutta here

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As opposed to not trying to tank and get the 9th pick? If we're going to be bad regardless, might as well be bad. The players are still trying to win, they're just young and thus not adding much in terms of winning ability. We're not going to win on the backs of veterans on 1-2 year deals to **** things up for us. We picked a direction so I'm glad we're giving ourselves the best chance to lose while also playing our young guys and seeing who may be around for the future and who can be possibly be trade bait.

It's a lottery and tanking is not guaranteed to get you anything. You can be a 6th-10th worst team and still get the #1 pick, it's just less likely for that to happen because the odds are worse. Finishing #1-3 doesn't guarantee anything either, it just gives you better odds at getting a top pick and not falling as far. Pro-tanking people shouldn't be mad if that's what they want, because they should know the risks that come with it.

I'd take a chance at someone falling to 5 while having a potential Chicago pick + young players to package versus being in no man's land with a 9-14 pick.

drsd · Post #518 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 6:53 am

Nyce_1 wrote:We need to lose out. Do that and I guarantee we finish the season with 2nd best odds.

Orlando is not going to lose out.

Win odds By ESPN odds:
30.3% Pelicans
26.6% Pacers
27.9% Lakers
45.3% @Cavs
28.8% @Grizz
37.8% Grizz
35.4% @Pistons
23.2% Celts
25.0% @Hornets
49.3% T'wolves
12.9% @Bucks
27.3% @Hawks
14.8% @Sixers
15.2% @Sixers

If you accept those odds, the Magic is projected to go 4-10 in the above (actually it is 3.998 wins, but still). 538 also predicts 4 wins and a final 22-50 mark.

But to get to TWO, all the Magic really need is to go 3-11 with the extra lose being to the T-wolves. That would take both teams to a predicted 21-49 final record.

..

drsd · Post #519 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:01 am

Dub_Sax wrote:I can't wait to see what the pro tankers say when the magic end up with the 3rd worst record then end up getting the 5th pick..

Oh wait, I know. They'll say we didn't "tank properly" lol.. fkoutta here

An anti-Tanker here. Against the Hawks, the Magic played Hall, Franks, Randle, and Cannady for a combined 53 minutes. I don't care how hard a teram tries to win, playing G-leagueres big-minutes equals Ls. Orlando's current roster does not have a single player that is a starter on an elite team (although some will grow in to stater quality). Edit: maybe Harris would start on an elite playoff team.

This is a talent-based league and the Magic has assets but no real talent. This season was lost the moment Fultz went down. If healthy, the Magic was projected to be the 9-seed in the play-ins, and if the team got hot, there was a path to the 6-seed.

But here we are. And as such, all I can do as an anti-Tanker is appreciate "Player Development". In particular I am hopeful these mounting losses do not grind on Okeke, Anthony, Carter, and Harris. Those four will be key to Orlando's hopeful turnaround next year after all. Also: Bamba and Hampton are getting some burn time. And that's good.

I wonder if Orlando might shut Ross down for the season with his back-spasms. That's the single greatest act Management can do now to assist the Tank.

..

GelbeWand09 · Post #520 » by **GelbeWand09** » Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:02 am

drsd wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:We need to lose out. Do that and I guarantee we finish the season with 2nd best odds.

Orlando is not going to lose out.

Win odds By ESPN odds:
30.3% Pelicans
26.6% Pacers
27.9% Lakers
45.3% @Cavs
28.8% @Grizz
37.8% Grizz
35.4% @Pistons
23.2% Celts
25.0% @Hornets
49.3% T'wolves
12.9% @Bucks
27.3% @Hawks
14.8% @Sixers
15.2% @Sixers

If you accept those odds, the Magic is projected to go 4-10 in the above (actually it is 3.998 wins, but still). 538 also predicts 4 wins and a final 22-50 mark.

But to get to TWO, all the Magic really need is to go 3-11 with the extra lose being to the T-wolves. That would take both teams to a predicted 21-49 final record.

..

Naw this doesnt mean much honestly. Such a projection doesnt work. 1st you dont know especially in this season, who you play against (load management / tanking moves). 2nd much more important, its based on us using our vets. If you make that projection with the roster we played in the last 2-3 games, the % are probably much different.
We are 1-9 in the last 10 with the vets playing much less. The only win was a vet heavy game. Without them, we are basically OKC.

When we play the vets again, this projection looks right. When we keep them out, i'm pretty sure we wont win 4 games.