Home Stretch for the Top 3 EC Seeds

[ecuhus1981]

The top 3 seeds in the Eastern Conference have thoroughly separated themselves from the pack. 8 games behind are Atlanta, Boston and New York fighting for the other non-play-in seeds, and I don't see any of the latter catching any of the former.

During the last 14 or 15 games of the season, who do YOU think will capture the #1 seed? Here's a rough breakdown of each:

BROOKLYN (39-19) - walking wounded with one of the longest and most severe injury reports in the league, we have treaded water and kept pace since our hot stretch in February. We only have 4 back to backs left in our schedule, as well as 3 games with multiple days of rest. But we can't count on either Durant or Harden to play a single minute for the rest of the regular season, which will lead to some L's even before you adjust for rest. Two games against Milwaukee will be entertaining, but ultimately we're always outgunned, always outmanned with only a Big One. I see us going 7-7 from here, to finish 46-26 for 2nd in the East.

PHILADELPHIA (39-18) - the top team in the EC for most of the season, they are mostly healthy and playing with a chip on their shoulder. 4 b2b's and 2 games with multiple days rest shouldn't bother them to much, although having to play at Milwaukee twice in a row may sow a bit of doubt in the race to the top. I have the Sixers closing 9-6 for a 48-24 record, #1 in the East.

MILWAUKEE (35-22) - due to a favorable schedule assist from Silver, the Bucks have a puncher's chance to leapfrog both us and Philly. I actually see them going 4-0 in the remaining RS games against their rivals, but with 5 back-to-back's and only 2 games with multiple days rest, I can also envision them dropping some seemingly uncharacteristic games. For example, they get to face PHI on Thursday with 2 off days, while PHI get no rest after playing today and traveling. However, after the follow-up game on Saturday, the Bucks have a trap game at Bud's old stomping grounds of Atlanta. I'm projecting 9-6 for them as well to close, a 44-28 record good for 3rd.

[Prokorov]

I dont think it matters. homecourt isnt really a thing this year and i dont view playing both milwaukee and philly in the playoffs as some daunting task. they are both regular season teams.

without harden back, and assuming KD in a week i see us going 8-6 or so based on opponents and us resting the last hand full of games heading into the playoffs.

i have philly at about 10-5

i have bucks about 11-4.

[ecuhus1981]

I dont think it matters. homecourt isnt really a thing this year and i dont view playing both milwaukee and philly in the playoffs as some daunting task. they are both regular season teams.

without harden back, and assuming KD in a week i see us going 8-6 or so based on opponents and us resting the last hand full of games heading into the playoffs.

i have philly at about 10-5

i have bucks about 11-4.

Prok, you sweet sweet summer child. Normally, I'm the optimist in our debates!

If we get Durant back playing games in a week (next Tuesday 4/27 @ TOR), I'll eat my hat. The radio silence after his scan on Monday was deafening, it told me all I need to know.

I'm not asking whether any of us are worried about remaining the #2 seed or slipping to #3. I'm merely asking us to predict who's going to end up #1, and why. If we somehow go 0-14 down the stretch, slip into the play-in seeds BUT have a fully healthy squad, I'm walking in cloud 9 about our chances. That's almost a statistical impossibility, but hopefully you get my point. Health determines so much for us. Once we get that, we need Nash to lock in on the rotations that work.

[DarkXaero]

KD is a day to day injury, he got kneed in the thigh. I understand that Nets fans are pessimistic after all the injuries, but it'd be ridiculous if we can't get KD out on the floor soon from that.

[ecuhus1981]

Well, I'll eat my hat about Kevin Durant.

I thought we were going to play his injury recovery more conservatively. By the look of his first game back, lighting up up one of the top defenses in the league with Phoenix, I would say he's close to 100% as you can ever be, without actually playing in games. If this is rusty, he'll be unbelievable in 2 weeks.

As for game predictions, I didn't write out my individual guesses but we're already ahead in my book. Us winning and Philly losing against Phoenix really buoyed our chances of taking the #1 seed. I still think that we should prioritize health and not try to "empty the tank" in pursuit of the #1. After all, Philly owns the tiebreaker, so we would need to be a game up on them. But it would simplify our path, facing maybe Charlotte and Boston instead of Miami and Milwaukee.

What do you think? 1.5 games up on the standings with 12 to go, KD healthy now and hopefully Harden soon, will we build momentum and steamroll to the #1 seed, or slide to the #2 or even #3?

[Papi_swav]

ok so we're 1.5 ahead of Philly and 3.5 ahead of Bucks with 11 games left right now. I predict we go 8-3 this final stretch. We play the Bucks back to back. Those will be important games. We need to win at least 1 of those. We play Por, Dallas and Denver. We're on the road for 5 straight games.

Sixers are on a surprising 4 game losing streak. They have 12 games left. They have a very easy schedule. The only real playoffs team they play are Atlanta twice and Miami. They play the worst of the worst teams on most nights so I can easily see them going 10-2. Or maybe they are fatiguing. But I can also see them going 8-4.

Bucks also have 12 games left. They have to get thru us for 2 games but the rest of the games are against bad teams . The bucks have been feasting on bad teams this season, looking at their losses and 95% of their losses are from good teams way above 500. I could see them going 10-2.

It's not going to be easy trying to hold down the #1 seed but with KD back idk how teams can beat us. Only when we rest KD teams might have a chance. Hopefully Harden can return sometime in the final games. it's getting interesting...

[Whiskey Slick]

Provided KD has no ore setbacks, Kyrie stays healthy and his MIA days are over, Claxton makes it back ASAP, and most of all Harden makes it back in time for the last two or three games, even if it's limited minutes like KD is being used now, Brooklyn will secure the #1 Seed then steamroll every team they play in the post season. Again, that's provided, GOD WILLING, that the BIG 3 are all healthy and the team is relatively whole for the post season.

[Stone]

The next few games are crucial to holding onto the one spot. Philly and the Bucks have much easier schedules than us and the buck's play us twice.

I think now with KD back we are going to 8-3 and capturing the eastern conference crown....

[Prokorov]

Provided KD has no ore setbacks, Kyrie stays healthy and his MIA days are over, Claxton makes it back ASAP, and most of all Harden makes it back in time for the last two or three games, even if it's limited minutes like KD is being used now, Brooklyn will secure the #1 Seed then steamroll every team they play in the post season. Again, that's provided, GOD WILLING, that the BIG 3 are all healthy and the team is relatively whole for the post season.

If KD doesnt have a setback I think the 1 seed is ours unless philly or milwaukee go like 11-1 or 12-0 or something absurd.

To me, our opponent doesnt matter. As we saw yesterday, We ROUTINELY smash great competition.

2-0 vs clips
1-1 vs lakers (1-0 w/lebron)
1-0 vs denver
1-1 vs utah (1-0 when at least 1 star plays)
2-0 vs the suns
1-0 vs bucks
2-1 vs heat
3-0 vs boston
3-0 vs knicks
1-0 vs portland
1-2 vs philly (0 games with at least 2 stars playing)
0-1 vs dallas (0 games with at least 2 stars playing)

Overall thats 18-6 vs the best teams in the league and 18-1 when at least 2 stars play. the only loss was to the lakers without Lebron/AD and kyrie got ejected and KD was on a minutes restriciton.

Our biggest risk to the 1 seed is back to backs, because we will 100% rest KD (or harden if he returns) in those. We have 3 more back to backs, so i see those as scheduled losses.

7-4 or 8-3 to me seems like a lock, with potential to go 10-1 if kyrie goes off on days KD sits.

[MrDollarBills]

The ideal would be to gain enough of a lead so that Kyrie can get some rest days in as well before the playoffs but I doubt the Bucks or Philly are going to have that kind of drop off

[gigantes]

I usually advocate for the devil in these kinds of instances, but I'm gonna go homer this once.

Even with Simmons out, Philly probably shouldn't be struggling so much. They've had problems for years in terms of the team not living up to its talent, and I'm guessing somehow it's still a factor. What's up with Milwaukee, too? I thought they got better in the offseason, but they're not even close to last season's pace.

Hopefully Harden comes back before too long, and I have to think that seals the deal for the Nets. Although it could certainly be close.

Also kind of amazed that Boston isn't in the conversation this time. Looks like their supporting cast just isn't living up to its typical effectiveness. I'm sure there's good reasons and all, but as a casual NBA fan, I wasn't expecting that. :S

[ecuhus1981]

I usually advocate for the devil in these kinds of instances, but I'm gonna go homer this once.

Even with Simmons out, Philly probably shouldn't be struggling so much. They've had problems for years in terms of the team not living up to its talent, and I'm guessing somehow it's still a factor. What's up with Milwaukee, too? I thought they got better in the offseason, but they're not even close to last season's pace.

Hopefully Harden comes back before too long, and I have to think that seals the deal for the Nets. Although it could certainly be close.

Also kind of amazed that Boston isn't in the conversation this time. Looks like their supporting cast just isn't living up to its typical effectiveness. I'm sure there's good reasons and all, but as a casual NBA fan, I wasn't expecting that. :S

Cent per cent, mon ami.

The healthy (knock on wood) return of KD and subsequent win against Phoenix definitely has me re-thinking our strategy. I was ready to write off the remainder of the regular season if it meant getting our Big 3 back at 100%. Now it seems, we won't have to choose.

I think 49 wins gets us the conference title and #1 seed. Philly can get to 48 still, and they own the tiebreaker. So we would technically be co-champs of the regular season, but we would get the #2 seed.

And yeah, no shade I am surprised at Boston's slow decline since 2018. I feel like they are constantly weakening their C rotation. Moving Kanter in order to hard-cap themselves to sign Thompson to the MLE was a head scratcher. Then moving Theis, their most effective big in the postseason, in order to duck the apron after absorbing Fournier was even more puzzling. They got Wagner back to replace him, but then they cut him in order to sign Jabari Parker, who couldn't find a role in Sacramento!

Oh well. It's going good over here.

[Whiskey Slick]

Provided KD has no ore setbacks, Kyrie stays healthy and his MIA days are over, Claxton makes it back ASAP, and most of all Harden makes it back in time for the last two or three games, even if it's limited minutes like KD is being used now, Brooklyn will secure the #1 Seed then steamroll every team they play in the post season. Again, that's provided, GOD WILLING, that the BIG 3 are all healthy and the team is relatively whole for the post season.

If KD doesnt have a setback I think the 1 seed is ours unless philly or milwaukee go like 11-1 or 12-0 or something absurd.

To me, our opponent doesnt matter. As we saw yesterday, We ROUTINELY smash great competition.

2-0 vs clips
1-1 vs lakers (1-0 w/lebron)
1-0 vs denver
1-1 vs utah (1-0 when at least 1 star plays)
2-0 vs the suns
1-0 vs bucks
2-1 vs heat
3-0 vs boston
3-0 vs knicks
1-0 vs portland
1-2 vs philly (0 games with at least 2 stars playing)
0-1 vs dallas (0 games with at least 2 stars playing)

Overall thats 18-6 vs the best teams in the league and 18-1 when at least 2 stars play. the only loss was to the lakers without Lebron/AD and kyrie got ejected and KD was on a minutes restriciton.

Our biggest risk to the 1 seed is back to backs, because we will 100% rest KD (or harden if he returns) in those. We have 3 more back to backs, so i see those as scheduled losses.

7-4 or 8-3 to me seems like a lock, with potential to go 10-1 if kyrie goes off on days KD sits.

To me the GRAND PRIZE for the #1 Seed is Philly and the Bucks would have to play each other in the EC semi-finals, perhaps a grueling 7 Game series that will take an awful lot out from both teams, then the winner gets to play Brooklyn in the EC finals, and God help them if it's a relatively healthy Nets team, particularly the BIG 3.

We may also be coming off a 4 or 5 Game series while they were killing each other in the semi's.

That's why I think it's so important to be the 1 Seed, because it means avoiding the 2 and 3 Seeds.

[Karate Diop]

I think the x-factor is that Philly really wants homecourt and the regular season accolades... The Bucks seem to have learned their lesson and the Nets are prioritizing health over everything else so it's almost like homecourt is Philly's to lose...

[Prokorov]

I think the x-factor is that Philly really wants homecourt and the regular season accolades... The Bucks seem to have learned their lesson and the Nets are prioritizing health over everything else so it's almost like homecourt is Philly's to lose...

Philly has huge incentive for the 1 seed because they want to avoid boston/miami round 1 and want to avoid us as long as possible.

Philly knows they would struggle to get past boston/miami and there only shot to beat us in injury

[Prokorov]

Provided KD has no ore setbacks, Kyrie stays healthy and his MIA days are over, Claxton makes it back ASAP, and most of all Harden makes it back in time for the last two or three games, even if it's limited minutes like KD is being used now, Brooklyn will secure the #1 Seed then steamroll every team they play in the post season. Again, that's provided, GOD WILLING, that the BIG 3 are all healthy and the team is relatively whole for the post season.

If KD doesnt have a setback I think the 1 seed is ours unless philly or milwaukee go like 11-1 or 12-0 or something absurd.

To me, our opponent doesnt matter. As we saw yesterday, We ROUTINELY smash great competition.

2-0 vs clips
1-1 vs lakers (1-0 w/lebron)
1-0 vs denver
1-1 vs utah (1-0 when at least 1 star plays)
2-0 vs the suns
1-0 vs bucks
2-1 vs heat
3-0 vs boston
3-0 vs knicks
1-0 vs portland
1-2 vs philly (0 games with at least 2 stars playing)
0-1 vs dallas (0 games with at least 2 stars playing)

Overall thats 18-6 vs the best teams in the league and 18-1 when at least 2 stars play. the only loss was to the lakers without Lebron/AD and kyrie got ejected and KD was on a minutes restriciton.

Our biggest risk to the 1 seed is back to backs, because we will 100% rest KD (or harden if he returns) in those. We have 3 more back to backs, so i see those as scheduled losses.

7-4 or 8-3 to me seems like a lock, with potential to go 10-1 if kyrie goes off on days KD sits.

To me the GRAND PRIZE for the #1 Seed is Philly and the Bucks would have to play each other in the EC semi-finals, perhaps a grueling 7 Game series that will take an awful lot out from both teams, then the winner gets to play Brooklyn in the EC finals, and God help them if it's a relatively healthy Nets team, particularly the BIG 3.

We may also be coming off a 4 or 5 Game series while they were killing each other in the semi's.

That's why I think it's so important to be the 1 Seed, because it means avoiding the 2 and 3 Seeds.

I cant envision a scenario where its likely for both the bucks and philly to advance to the second round. One of them is going to have to play boston or the heat.

-Boston is 1.5 games back of the heat/hawks. and both those teams are on fire. Boston has dropped 2 in a row and look to be struggling to piece togehter a rotation. The heat are 2 games back as well. and just lost to the bulls.

-Boston AND the heat would BOTH need to overcome BOTH the knicks and hawks in order for philly or the bucks to void them. And that just seems really unlikely the way that those teams are playing

-the heat/boston could technically both lose the play in or have it shake out where 1 grabs the 5 seed and the other ends up 8th, but even then, it would take some funky play in stuff and the hawks or knicks to cool off drastically

The only other scenario i can see is philly gets the heat and the bucks get the celtics instead of the other way around. But if its heat/bucks and boston/philly there is no way both avoid and upset. neither team is built for the playoffs. meanwhile the heat/celtics both get MUCH better in the playoffs. their depth issues go away with starters playing more and their elite coaching has a bigger impact in a 7 game series. plus you can exploit simmons/giannis a ton once it becomes a halfcourt game.

and embiid/giannis have it in their head they are playoff chokers.

[Prokorov]

Hawks short handed vs. philly tonight.

no trae, no hunter, no huerter, no reddish, and bogs questionable.

they beat miami and milwaukee without young but probably missing to much to win this one without him. hopefully they have more bodies friday

[Prokorov]

Man I cant tell if the celtics are tanking or just this much of a crap show. Having all kinds of chemistry and passion issues, selfish play, and being probably the biggest mess in the NBA is a bad look given that all their vets opted out/to go elsewhere (Kyrie, Horford, Morris, Heyward) and dragging Kyrie through the mud and blaming him for everything only to watch him be an All-NBA player and elite teammate here.

Ainge getting fired after kyrie sweeps them in round 1 after blowing the gift wrapped picks we handed them would be the ultimate redemption story.

but now im not sure they get out of the play in round. losing to OKC at home when they were playing b2b?

[ecuhus1981]

Giannis re-aggravated his right ankle injury against Houston, so his status for the remainder of the regular season is shaky. The Bucks play Chicago Friday on no rest, and then host us for a two-game swing next Sunday and Tuesday. There's a real chance that they'll be fighting off NYK and ATL for the #3 seed down the stretch.

I thought that there was no way any of these top 3 Eastern Conference contenders could slip, but a significant Antetokounmpo injury changes Milwaukee's entire outlook. I hope gets well soon.

[Hello Brooklyn]

We should be able to beat the Bucks twice without Giannis. That would help secure us the 1 seed.

Again depends on how much Philly wins. I think we do have incentive to play for it.

I'd rather take it easy the 2nd round.