Official Spec Thread: I guess now's the time to blow this dumpster fire up and bask in the glow!

[ogmagicfan]

Pepe you’ve tried to argue that tanking is futeless for the past month. Statistically you’re wrong. With the old odds, with the new odds, it doesn’t matter. It’s that simple. I don’t get entertaining a convo where we have statistics to confirm. It doesn’t matter how the previous 2 drafts went, cause that’s a sample size of TWO. That’s not statistically significant. You trying to use these handpick examples would get you laughed out of any serious conversation.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to argue. You’re just appear emotional about the old core that couldn’t take us past the 1st round being traded and wanting us to continue on mediocrity because “tanking” isn’t entertaining or useful. You have a 3rd graders outlook on how to manage an NBA team. Your belief on how to build a decent team, let alone contender would have this team out of Orlando by the end of this decade.

Yes teams can jump other teams, this isn’t the NFL draft. Teams can get lucky and teams can get unlucky. That doesn’t mean you try to position yourself as a mediocre team hoping you jump into the top 4 with your 10% chance instead of being bottom 4 and having a 48-52% chance. This argument isn’t even in good faith and has an energy sucking contrarian written all over it.

[Xatticus]

Look, i didn't try to start anything nor this is topic worth of too much words. Today, only 8 different threads had any new posts written. And i think i made 2 of 8. So it's not hard to figure nobody is posting anything.
Also it's not really hard to track down numbers and figure that there is very little interest in current "new" team, despite hardcore fans claiming they like and elect to watch young players "develop". Years of tv ratings prove that simply is not a case for majority of fans.

Fans like winning, compeating and shiny new toys, young teams generate buzz on start but fizzle down without sucess very fast. Case and point, Pelicans went from " muct watch" by mainstream media to " yea... that Ingram guy, is he still playing basketball? " . You can track down allstar votes and see how little attention span nba fans have when it comes to young players and/or interest of fans in watching actual development.
Lonzo had 960 000 votes for allstar game in 2019 and 57 000 in 2021. Guy lost 94% of votes because fans moved to new shiny toy to adore and worship. D'angello Russell also saw 90% drop in votes , Trae Young lost like 2 million votes despite playing better, with team that was playing better.

We can here debate until our heads turn purple about direcition and how much is this "win win" or " suck suck" or whatever, the reality is, we did execlly this in 2012.
Reality is also that Magic had top 5 worst record 5 times in last 9 years. This is nothing new to a team. Some people here just conviced themselfs it is.
Also in mean time, lottery reform changed, and Magic ,despite having 4th worst record, still have better chance at drafting OUTSIDE of top 5 than inside top 4, just like other pick they own, still has much bigger chance being late lottery or lost pick than actually turning into high pick for Orlando.

Lot of this is empty filler talk and non of this will matter. But i got tired about reading how it "hurts our tank, we have to reach top 3" like there are any major, groundbreaking things when it comes to odds that change moving few spots up and down.

the word record has 40,1% chance for top 3 pick
2 worst has 40,1% for top 3 pick
3rd worst has 40,1% for top 3 pick
4th worst has 36,66% for top 3 pick
5th worst has 31,6% for top 3 pick.

if you think that's groundbreaking "improvment" you should really be angry at your math teacher. Especially because both lotteries AFTER reform showed that somebody in 5-12 range is almost guaranteed to be drafting in top 3 pick because their cumulative odds of leapfrogging are simply too high.
If i had to bet, i would bet that 1# pick will go to Toronto, for start, they never won lottery and they were forced to leave country. Sounds like fitting reward from commisionaire from not at all rigged ( eye roll) lottery.

So the rebuild is already a failure because it hasn't lured hordes of fans back immediately on the heels of the three trades? I mean... there has certainly been more activity on the board since the trades, but it hasn't met your threshold for success? It's going to take time to rebuild interest after nine years of ineptitude. I can't speak for anyone else, but I've watched more Magic basketball since the trades happened than I did over the course of the season up to that point. I've already seen more of Devin Cannady than I'd ever hope to.

And let's be clear here... we didn't break up the 1998 Bulls. We broke up one of the worst teams in the league, so I don't understand why you keep using words like "winning" and "competing".

Yes. Some rebuilds fail. A lot of talent came through Orlando over the last nine years, but our rebuild failed because we held onto the wrong pieces. I don't know what you are so bothered about. Just about anything is preferable to the last nine years. I don't know what the next nine years will look like, but worst case scenario is something similar to the last nine years. The Orlando Magic have moved on from the business of polishing turds, at least temporarily.

[pepe1991]

Look, i didn't try to start anything nor this is topic worth of too much words. Today, only 8 different threads had any new posts written. And i think i made 2 of 8. So it's not hard to figure nobody is posting anything.
Also it's not really hard to track down numbers and figure that there is very little interest in current "new" team, despite hardcore fans claiming they like and elect to watch young players "develop". Years of tv ratings prove that simply is not a case for majority of fans.

Fans like winning, compeating and shiny new toys, young teams generate buzz on start but fizzle down without sucess very fast. Case and point, Pelicans went from " muct watch" by mainstream media to " yea... that Ingram guy, is he still playing basketball? " . You can track down allstar votes and see how little attention span nba fans have when it comes to young players and/or interest of fans in watching actual development.
Lonzo had 960 000 votes for allstar game in 2019 and 57 000 in 2021. Guy lost 94% of votes because fans moved to new shiny toy to adore and worship. D'angello Russell also saw 90% drop in votes , Trae Young lost like 2 million votes despite playing better, with team that was playing better.

We can here debate until our heads turn purple about direcition and how much is this "win win" or " suck suck" or whatever, the reality is, we did execlly this in 2012.
Reality is also that Magic had top 5 worst record 5 times in last 9 years. This is nothing new to a team. Some people here just conviced themselfs it is.
Also in mean time, lottery reform changed, and Magic ,despite having 4th worst record, still have better chance at drafting OUTSIDE of top 5 than inside top 4, just like other pick they own, still has much bigger chance being late lottery or lost pick than actually turning into high pick for Orlando.

Lot of this is empty filler talk and non of this will matter. But i got tired about reading how it "hurts our tank, we have to reach top 3" like there are any major, groundbreaking things when it comes to odds that change moving few spots up and down.

the word record has 40,1% chance for top 3 pick
2 worst has 40,1% for top 3 pick
3rd worst has 40,1% for top 3 pick
4th worst has 36,66% for top 3 pick
5th worst has 31,6% for top 3 pick.

if you think that's groundbreaking "improvment" you should really be angry at your math teacher. Especially because both lotteries AFTER reform showed that somebody in 5-12 range is almost guaranteed to be drafting in top 3 pick because their cumulative odds of leapfrogging are simply too high.
If i had to bet, i would bet that 1# pick will go to Toronto, for start, they never won lottery and they were forced to leave country. Sounds like fitting reward from commisionaire from not at all rigged ( eye roll) lottery.

So the rebuild is already a failure because it hasn't lured hordes of fans back immediately on the heels of the three trades? I mean... there has certainly been more activity on the board since the trades, but it hasn't met your threshold for success? It's going to take time to rebuild interest after nine years of ineptitude. I can't speak for anyone else, but I've watched more Magic basketball since the trades happened than I did over the course of the season up to that point. I've already seen more of Devin Cannady than I'd ever hope to.

And let's be clear here... we didn't break up the 1998 Bulls. We broke up one of the worst teams in the league, so I don't understand why you keep using words like "winning" and "competing".

Yes. Some rebuilds fail. A lot of talent came through Orlando over the last nine years, but our rebuild failed because we held onto the wrong pieces. I don't know what you are so bothered about. Just about anything is preferable to the last nine years. I don't know what the next nine years will look like, but worst case scenario is something similar to the last nine years. The Orlando Magic have moved on from the business of polishing turds, at least temporarily.

Magic 9 years rebuild didn't fail because they held onto wrong peaces but because they kept adding wrong players in draft.

Sometimes it was obvious f***ery from day one ( Payton, Bamba) sometimes it was complete lack of sense how to develop player ( Gordon, Oladipo played out of position), sometimes it was poor evaluation of talent ( Hezonja). But in all cases it comes down to taking wrong players.

The Orlando Magic have moved on from the business of polishing turds, at least temporarily

Fultz and Bamba say hello
Given projected ceiling of Cole - Brandon Jennings , you can add him too to turd party.

I'm not bothered with rebuild, i just find hilarious that people think Magic are now doing something "brand new" when they just doing what they have done for 9 years and kept failing.

[msmoore66]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

[pepe1991]

Pepe you’ve tried to argue that tanking is futeless for the past month. Statistically you’re wrong. With the old odds, with the new odds, it doesn’t matter. It’s that simple. I don’t get entertaining a convo where we have statistics to confirm. It doesn’t matter how the previous 2 drafts went, cause that’s a sample size of TWO. That’s not statistically significant. You trying to use these handpick examples would get you laughed out of any serious conversation.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to argue. You’re just appear emotional about the old core that couldn’t take us past the 1st round being traded and wanting us to continue on mediocrity because “tanking” isn’t entertaining or useful. You have a 3rd graders outlook on how to manage an NBA team. Your belief on how to build a decent team, let alone contender would have this team out of Orlando by the end of this decade.

Yes teams can jump other teams, this isn’t the NFL draft. Teams can get lucky and teams can get unlucky. That doesn’t mean you try to position yourself as a mediocre team hoping you jump into the top 4 with your 10% chance instead of being bottom 4 and having a 48-52% chance. This argument isn’t even in good faith and has an energy sucking contrarian written all over it.

Oladipo, Hezonja, Payton, Gordon, Isaac, Bamba. Fruits of tanking. People can tell what they want, but those are Magic lottery picks from 2013 to 2018.

It just didn't work. Not because lottery is currupted or they "didn't suck hard enough " but because lottery is notoriouslly unrealiable way of rebuild.

[pepe1991]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

Seems like i'm only person keeping this forum from having 5 posts a day. #CharrityWork

[msmoore66]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

Seems like i'm only person keeping this forum from having 5 posts a day. #CharrityWork

Someone has to do it!

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

[GelbeWand09]

Pepe you’ve tried to argue that tanking is futeless for the past month. Statistically you’re wrong. With the old odds, with the new odds, it doesn’t matter. It’s that simple. I don’t get entertaining a convo where we have statistics to confirm. It doesn’t matter how the previous 2 drafts went, cause that’s a sample size of TWO. That’s not statistically significant. You trying to use these handpick examples would get you laughed out of any serious conversation.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to argue. You’re just appear emotional about the old core that couldn’t take us past the 1st round being traded and wanting us to continue on mediocrity because “tanking” isn’t entertaining or useful. You have a 3rd graders outlook on how to manage an NBA team. Your belief on how to build a decent team, let alone contender would have this team out of Orlando by the end of this decade.

Yes teams can jump other teams, this isn’t the NFL draft. Teams can get lucky and teams can get unlucky. That doesn’t mean you try to position yourself as a mediocre team hoping you jump into the top 4 with your 10% chance instead of being bottom 4 and having a 48-52% chance. This argument isn’t even in good faith and has an energy sucking contrarian written all over it.

Oladipo, Hezonja, Payton, Gordon, Isaac, Bamba. Fruits of tanking. People can tell what they want, but those are Magic lottery picks from 2013 to 2018.

It just didn't work. Not because lottery is currupted or they "didn't suck hard enough " but because lottery is notoriouslly unrealiable way of rebuild.

The problem is, as a small market team you will always need the draft to get better. Because its not only about the players, its about flexibility (rookie contracts) & young trade chips. Our mistake wasnt the draft, it was that we held on to long to most players til there trade value was down.
We should have traded Elf after his rookie season, we should have dealt Bamba after his rookie season, we should have traded Dipo before we cut his playing time for Evan, we shouldnt have traded Harris for former Skiles players, we should have traded Gordon after his first Dunk contest...
Its not only about drafting stars but you need picks & young players to trade for good players.

@Xatticus
Yea thats the thing i never understood in all the pro/against rebuild discussions. Building a 8th seed in the east is the easiest thing to do in the NBA. You sign/trade for 2-3 decent vets & hire a def. minded coach and you are already a 8th place contender because noone wants to be the 8th seed except desperate teams like the Knicks & former Pistons or Hornets. But the Knicks know when they show promise, they get maybe a star to get out of the treadmill.
We havent broke up a 60 win team like Hawks did some years ago. We broke up a team that was one of the worst playoffs teams record wise in the history of the NBA, with a older core without much potential of internal improvement, except hoping to draft the next Giannis or Booker at 12-15.

[GelbeWand09]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

Seems like i'm only person keeping this forum from having 5 posts a day. #CharrityWork

Yea laughed about it & wanted to congrat you yesterday already for that masterplan but i was too busy too read all the hilarious European Superleaque stuff

[msmoore66]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

Seems like i'm only person keeping this forum from having 5 posts a day. #CharrityWork

Yea laughed about it & wanted to congrat you yesterday already for that masterplan but i was too busy too read all the hilarious European Superleaque stuff

That has been something truly amazing to be fair.

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

[pepe1991]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

Seems like i'm only person keeping this forum from having 5 posts a day. #CharrityWork

Someone has to do it!

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

Tbh i regreted posting anything yesterday. Too much wasted time and nothing new was said.
There is around month and half of dead space between watching RJ Hampton trying to learn basics of sport that he supposed to be pro at , and draft.

[pepe1991]

Pepe, your keyboard must take an absolute battering.

Seems like i'm only person keeping this forum from having 5 posts a day. #CharrityWork

Yea laughed about it & wanted to congrat you yesterday already for that masterplan but i was too busy too read all the hilarious European Superleaque stuff

they almost ruind football. Seems like fans saved fotball. For now.

What a s***fest it was. I saw Modric and other Real Madrid players were liking on instagram posts against Perez

if superleague actually lived ( seems it's dead now) i was ready to not watch football ever again, other than my local club.

[pepe1991]

Pepe you’ve tried to argue that tanking is futeless for the past month. Statistically you’re wrong. With the old odds, with the new odds, it doesn’t matter. It’s that simple. I don’t get entertaining a convo where we have statistics to confirm. It doesn’t matter how the previous 2 drafts went, cause that’s a sample size of TWO. That’s not statistically significant. You trying to use these handpick examples would get you laughed out of any serious conversation.

I don’t even know what you’re trying to argue. You’re just appear emotional about the old core that couldn’t take us past the 1st round being traded and wanting us to continue on mediocrity because “tanking” isn’t entertaining or useful. You have a 3rd graders outlook on how to manage an NBA team. Your belief on how to build a decent team, let alone contender would have this team out of Orlando by the end of this decade.

Yes teams can jump other teams, this isn’t the NFL draft. Teams can get lucky and teams can get unlucky. That doesn’t mean you try to position yourself as a mediocre team hoping you jump into the top 4 with your 10% chance instead of being bottom 4 and having a 48-52% chance. This argument isn’t even in good faith and has an energy sucking contrarian written all over it.

Oladipo, Hezonja, Payton, Gordon, Isaac, Bamba. Fruits of tanking. People can tell what they want, but those are Magic lottery picks from 2013 to 2018.

It just didn't work. Not because lottery is currupted or they "didn't suck hard enough " but because lottery is notoriouslly unrealiable way of rebuild.

The problem is, as a small market team you will always need the draft to get better. Because its not only about the players, its about flexibility (rookie contracts) & young trade chips. Our mistake wasnt the draft, it was that we held on to long to most players til there trade value was down.
We should have traded Elf after his rookie season, we should have dealt Bamba after his rookie season, we should have traded Dipo before we cut his playing time for Evan, we shouldnt have traded Harris for former Skiles players, we should have traded Gordon after his first Dunk contest...
Its not only about drafting stars but you need picks & young players to trade for good players.

@Xatticus
Yea thats the thing i never understood in all the pro/against rebuild discussions. Building a 8th seed in the east is the easiest thing to do in the NBA. You sign/trade for 2-3 decent vets & hire a def. minded coach and you are already a 8th place contender because noone wants to be the 8th seed except desperate teams like the Knicks & former Pistons or Hornets. But the Knicks know when they show promise, they get maybe a star to get out of the treadmill.
We havent broke up a 60 win team like Hawks did some years ago. We broke up a team that was one of the worst playoffs teams record wise in the history of the NBA, with a older core without much potential of internal improvement, except hoping to draft the next Giannis or Booker at 12-15.

And we should trade Cole Anthony today because this is best he will ever get in terms of value and we should have never signed Fultz because he showed nothing. And we threw 4 years contract on player that didn't play 3 of 4 years. So it's just continuation of same mistakes. Just without hindsight (yet) to confirm mistakes.
In moment when those guys where here, Payton was "point god" of forum, Gordon was golden boy , future allstar and Bamba was more athletic Gobert with 3 point shot.

I spent 2016-2019 arguing about Gordon's lack of star talent. I spent 2018,2019 and 2020 telling people Bamba is fringe bench player.
But people here hold onto their "young studs" and deflect every critic with "give it a time, just a rookie, just 22 years old" and other crap. For crying out loud, i made thread about Chuma Okeke struggle, guy played FIVE GOOD GAMES and i was ganked with army of call-out posts. Now he sucks again so should i go back and mock them getting boner based on 5 games ,despite him being pretty much terrible player in 36 of 41 games of his rookie year ?

This is how this forum goes, sunshine and rainbows , deflections and excuses, all hate always directed toward older players . Every new year brings new shiny toy to worship, and years later pretening that they weren't THAT high on those guys. I just don't like hypocricy. People here claim they like and want young players. Sure. So how execlly there are 5 to 6 threads and 10 active posts during current games and zero buzz, or posts on forum during a day ?You telling me they all watch but nobody posts? I highly doubt it. Imo people don't even watch Orlando since a trade deadline, but just come from box score after there is at laest 1 player that didn't suck that night.

I pretty much said i won't be watching this team again this year, i'm very open about it. That seems to be only difference between me, who said i won't be watching, and others who don't watch. So people want young players that they don't watch, so they can add more young players that they also won't be watching because nobody watches rebuilding teams? Amazing

[MoMM]

It just didn't work. Not because lottery is currupted or they "didn't suck hard enough " but because lottery is notoriouslly unrealiable way of rebuild.

Lottery is.... lottery

[pepe1991]

It just didn't work. Not because lottery is currupted or they "didn't suck hard enough " but because lottery is notoriouslly unrealiable way of rebuild.

Lottery is.... lottery

Execlly

I really hope we land 1# pick tho, if they have Cade in front of them, i highly doubt they will f*** it up. I dont' trust them making decisions at 3-5 range

[Skybox]

You telling me they all watch but nobody posts? I highly doubt it. Imo people don't even watch Orlando since a trade deadline, but just come from box score after there is at laest 1 player that didn't suck that night.

I pretty much said i won't be watching this team again this year, i'm very open about it. That seems to be only difference between me, who said i won't be watching, and others who don't watch. So people want young players that they don't watch, so they can add more young players that they also won't be watching because nobody watches rebuilding teams? Amazing

This is the reality that RealGM'ers often overlook in their "chess not checkers" long-game advice for the team. This is an entertainment BUSINESS and teams with fragile fan-bases in small markets have a better chance of never regaining their relevance in the community than counting on patient genius fans (like we all think we are) to stoke the community support. If the headline is another loss, people soon won't bother reading about how RJ Hampton is fast and Cole isn't as bad as usual. WeHam have that cloud over their head that Martins (who we don't like) actually has to answer for the team's financial performance. It's a very rare, very very rich, very big fanboy owner that will patiently support his masterminds while they carry out their secret, not obvious plan to rebuild a contender and maybe be patient with the inevitable missteps, injuries, etc.

Personally, I'm OK with where we are (from a Bball perspective) but things like making the playoffs (even barely) are what keep small market teams in business. Laughing stock in the eyes of casual lookeeloos who used to tell their friends they sat next to PGA guy last night or went to the Montecristo Club before the game, etc are gone and that's where the money is. Covid is to blame right now (Thank God) but if I had my former season tix, I probably couldn't give them away to watch this team. Chances are, of the 20 or so active, passionate posters here, there haven't been 100 expensive game tickets sold between them (quite a few, I believe, are international)..This team just provides NO interest for a casual fan...Two high lottery picks and a LOT of luck/skill/mostly luck could change it but, without question, this organization is in a perilous spot right now. This crappy organization needs a BIG offseason.

[jonbob17]

Tanking isn't only for the top pick(s) draft odds. It's to set the floor of where you pick. Worst record guaranteed top 5, 2nd worst 6, and so on.

[PrimeThyme]

The problem with what you're saying pepe is the forum has been this inactive since we went on that hot streak and first made the playoffs back in 2019. The last two seasons since that moment have been as dead as I've ever seen it. I personally was apathetic to this team and could barely bring myself to watch a game past halftime, much less post on a nightly basis.

I know countless others who felt/feel the same way. Trading Vuc/Fournier/AG isn't what put the board into this state. Keeping that core together for so long and the ceiling of this team so low is what did.

When we add two top 10 picks and Isaac/Fultz to this group next year I expect more activity and excitement to return. Far more than we had during the last couple seasons of the core we traded away.

A mediocre treadmill team breeds even more inactivity than an awful rebuilding one. The latter at least gives some hope.

[MagicStarwipe]

Also, let's be honest. How many people left the board because they just got sick of dealing with the ezzzp's and pepe's?

[pepe1991]

Also, let's be honest. How many people left the board because they just got sick of dealing with the ezzzp's and pepe's?

As many as tey left due dealing with Payton and Gordon fanbots?