2021 Free Agency & Off-season

[Scoot McGroot]

Warren's injury could make it hard to trade him in the summer, but his health should be clear by the deadline. The problem is finding room for Doug and TJ. Avoiding tax csn be done during the season.

Sent from my phone.

Do you mean room as in roster spot, or cap space?

Pacers can re-sign both Doug and TJ with their Bird rights, can't they?

Only concern would be the luxury tax

Correct. But with the way the Pacers operate, we tend to refer to the luxury tax as if it’s a hard cap, or a “MUST NOT CROSS”. For this summer, where we’ll have no salary cap space, this forum will mostly just refer to the luxury tax line as how much lonely we have to spend.

[Topofthekey]

Warren's injury could make it hard to trade him in the summer, but his health should be clear by the deadline. The problem is finding room for Doug and TJ. Avoiding tax csn be done during the season.

Sent from my phone.

Do you mean room as in roster spot, or cap space?

Pacers can re-sign both Doug and TJ with their Bird rights, can't they?

Only concern would be the luxury tax

Correct. But with the way the Pacers operate, we tend to refer to the luxury tax as if it’s a hard cap, or a “MUST NOT CROSS”. For this summer, where we’ll have no salary cap space, this forum will mostly just refer to the luxury tax line as how much lonely we have to spend.

Right. So I did some digging

The luxury tax threshold for the 2021-22 season is $136.6m according to Wojnarowski

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2918117-nbas-projected-salary-cap-and-luxury-tax-reportedly-set-for-2021-2024-seasons

And according to hoopshype, Pacers payroll for 2021-22 is currently at around $118m

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/indiana_pacers

This is of course not including the salary of the rookies that Pacers are going to draft in this year's draft, which consists of one FRP and two SRPs

Suppose we set aside $5m for rookie salary. $118m + $5m = $123m. $136.6m - $123m = $14m roughly

Looks like that's gives us about $13-14m to play around with when it comes to our own FAs

I'm fine with letting Jakarr and Kelan Martin walk, so it's really just Doug and TJ

$14m is probably not enough for both of them, but they can bump that number to around $16m by waiving Jalen Lecque? According to hoopshype Lecque's $1.8m 2021-22 salary is not guaranteed if waived by Jul 1st 2021

$16m is hopefully just enough to re-sign both Doug and TJ? Say $9m for Doug and $7m for TJ, something like that. I guess it really depends on what offers they get from other teams

[Scoot McGroot]

Do you mean room as in roster spot, or cap space?

Pacers can re-sign both Doug and TJ with their Bird rights, can't they?

Only concern would be the luxury tax

Correct. But with the way the Pacers operate, we tend to refer to the luxury tax as if it’s a hard cap, or a “MUST NOT CROSS”. For this summer, where we’ll have no salary cap space, this forum will mostly just refer to the luxury tax line as how much lonely we have to spend.

Right. So I did some digging

The luxury tax threshold for the 2021-22 season is $136.6m according to Wojnarowski

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2918117-nbas-projected-salary-cap-and-luxury-tax-reportedly-set-for-2021-2024-seasons

And according to hoopshype, Pacers payroll for 2021-22 is currently at around $118m

https://hoopshype.com/salaries/indiana_pacers

This is of course not including the salary of the rookies that Pacers are going to draft in this year's draft, which consists of one FRP and two SRPs

Suppose we set aside $5m for rookie salary. $118m + $5m = $123m. $136.6m - $123m = $14m roughly

Looks like that's gives us about $13-14m to play around with when it comes to our own FAs

I'm fine with letting Jakarr and Kelan Martin walk, so it's really just Doug and TJ

$14m is probably not enough for both of them, but they can bump that number to around $16m by waiving Jalen Lecque? According to hoopshype Lecque's $1.8m 2021-22 salary is not guaranteed if waived by Jul 1st 2021

$16m is hopefully just enough to re-sign both Doug and TJ? Say $9m for Doug and $7m for TJ, something like that. I guess it really depends on what offers they get from other teams

Remember. You’d still have to fill the 14th spot, and likely would fill the 15th roster spot too, so you need up to $3m for those two spots combined ($2m if you fill them with guys we draft in the 2nd round).

Hoopshype is a tad off. For free access, I recommend Basketball Insiders. I pay a small amount for access to Keith Smith’s Patreon page for more immediate access and info on the numbers. He shows us a little less than $16m from the luxury tax line, if you keep Oshae, but waive Kelan, which puts us at 11 players total. Say we are the worst team to make the playoffs, our 1st round pick would get $3.4m (the rookie scale is $2.8m, but players almost universally sign for 120% of the rookie scale). So, $13m to the tax, with 12 roster spots accounted for. So, we’d have about $11m to spend (we’d want to keep about $2m from the luxury tax line, as if Sabonis makes an All-NBA team, he would get a bonus of about that amount). That $11m would be to fill the final 3 roster spots. So, about $8m to keep 1 of TJ/Doug, or $9.5m ish to split between the both if we could keep both.

Otherwise, we already waived Lecque. His salary isn’t on the books at all for next year.

[Wizop]

My understanding is that the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season not the beginning. So I'd be willing not to treat it as a hard cap at the time Doug and TJ can be signed as long as we have a plan to get under the line later. That could be by waiving a non-guaranteed player, making a trade like the Phoenix side of the Warren deal, trading with a team with cap room or a trade exemption, or buying someone out and spreading the money over a few years.

[Topofthekey]

My understanding is that the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season not the beginning. So I'd be willing not to treat it as a hard cap at the time Doug and TJ can be signed as long as we have a plan to get under the line later. That could be by waiving a non-guaranteed player, making a trade like the Phoenix side of the Warren deal, trading with a team with cap room or a trade exemption, or buying someone out and spreading the money over a few years.

This sounds like a workable plan as well

Still, it depends on how much another team is willing to offer Doug and TJ

We may feel that $6-7m is a fair price for TJ, but what if another team decides to throw something like $10m at him, do we try to match that?

[Scoot McGroot]

My understanding is that the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season not the beginning. So I'd be willing not to treat it as a hard cap at the time Doug and TJ can be signed as long as we have a plan to get under the line later. That could be by waiving a non-guaranteed player, making a trade like the Phoenix side of the Warren deal, trading with a team with cap room or a trade exemption, or buying someone out and spreading the money over a few years.

That’s correct. But, options are much tougher, and much more expensive, to cut salary mid-season versus planning to get under.

And if the plan is a non-guarantee waiving mid-season, that means that we’re not planning on going over the tax this summer by more than roughly $1m, so our planning numbers for this offseason aren’t that far off.

Also, there’s a reason Phoenix made that Warren deal in the offseason versus in season. Teams had cap space to absorb a contract. There’s historically less options for that during the season.

As for buying someone out and spreading the money over a few years (stretch waive), that’s only available as an option roughly during July in the offseason. A team cannot utilize it for the current season during the season.

[Scoot McGroot]

My understanding is that the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season not the beginning. So I'd be willing not to treat it as a hard cap at the time Doug and TJ can be signed as long as we have a plan to get under the line later. That could be by waiving a non-guaranteed player, making a trade like the Phoenix side of the Warren deal, trading with a team with cap room or a trade exemption, or buying someone out and spreading the money over a few years.

This sounds like a workable plan as well

Still, it depends on how much another team is willing to offer Doug and TJ

We may feel that $6-7m is a fair price for TJ, but what if another team decides to throw something like $10m at him, do we try to match that?

I’d assume that Doug won’t get a pay cut from his last contract, so inflation adjusted, that would be essentially the full MLE of $10m this summer. TJ, I’d assume will get up to around the MLE. I’m planning $20m for them combined.

I also don’t necessarily see the need for Doug to return. I see Justin taking that spot fully next season. I also see the emergence of Sumner minimizing the need, along with the return of Warren. Add in a developmental SF with some slashing ability in Kelan Martin (or other options in the draft), the lack of open roster spots for next season, and the surplus of 2nds/exceptions, and I don’t see the need, necessarily.

[Wizop]

I also don’t necessarily see the need for Doug to return. I see Justin taking that spot fully next season. I also see the emergence of Sumner minimizing the need, along with the return of Warren. Add in a developmental SF with some slashing ability in Kelan Martin (or other options in the draft), the lack of open roster spots for next season, and the surplus of 2nds/exceptions, and I don’t see the need, necessarily.

don't disagree particularly if Lamb if healthy and no one wants to take him off our hands. I like Doug better than Lamb but I don't see that we need both and Justin too.

I should stop looking at the NBA draft this week and concentrate on the NFL, but as I've said before, Brissett changes a lot for me. before his emergence I was pretty locked onto Wagner as the only 6'9" prospect with range. now I don't fee a need to force a 4 and if the draft gives us a wing, having 3 veterans ahead of him (5 with LeVert and Sumner) will kill development.

[Scoot McGroot]

I also don’t necessarily see the need for Doug to return. I see Justin taking that spot fully next season. I also see the emergence of Sumner minimizing the need, along with the return of Warren. Add in a developmental SF with some slashing ability in Kelan Martin (or other options in the draft), the lack of open roster spots for next season, and the surplus of 2nds/exceptions, and I don’t see the need, necessarily.

don't disagree particularly if Lamb if healthy and no one wants to take him off our hands. I like Doug better than Lamb but I don't see that we need both and Justin too.

I should stop looking at the NBA draft this week and concentrate on the NFL, but as I've said before, Brissett changes a lot for me. before his emergence I was pretty locked onto Wagner as the only 6'9" prospect with range. now I don't fee a need to force a 4 and if the draft gives us a wing, having 3 veterans ahead of him (5 with LeVert and Sumner) will kill development.

Honestly, with the positional flexibility of Brogdon, Levert, and Warren, we basically could use anybody but a traditional center. We can always use wings, though, especially wings with size.

[Tom White]

Honestly, with the positional flexibility of Brogdon, Levert, and Warren, we basically could use anybody but a traditional center. We can always use wings, though, especially wings with size.

I'm not sure how the flexibility of those three affects the center position (I'm sure I'm reading your intent wrong), but right now the health of our three centers has forced us to use a 6'7" 215lb guy (Sampson) for the position. We better hope the health of the centers improves next year.

The team may actually be at a point where they need to select the famous "best player available" regardless of position, because let's face it, this team isn't setting the world on fire.

[Wizop]

We better hope the health of the centers improves next year.

The team may actually be at a point where they need to select the famous "best player available" regardless of position, because let's face it, this team isn't setting the world on fire.

I think we're at BPA except for centers. 3 centers is the right number so barring trading one I can't see drafting one in the first. besides the best ones should go in the top 5. I can see taking a center in round two planning to give him a 2-way and sending him to Fort Wayne, but that's different.

[Scoot McGroot]

Honestly, with the positional flexibility of Brogdon, Levert, and Warren, we basically could use anybody but a traditional center. We can always use wings, though, especially wings with size.

I'm not sure how the flexibility of those three affects the center position (I'm sure I'm reading your intent wrong), but right now the health of our three centers has forced us to use a 6'7" 215lb guy (Sampson) for the position. We better hope the health of the centers improves next year.

The team may actually be at a point where they need to select the famous "best player available" regardless of position, because let's face it, this team isn't setting the world on fire.

You can’t draft in the 1st round for a 4th string guy just in case the other 3 all miraculously have an injury at the same time. Especially when you can barely play any 2 together at any time. A 4th string center should be a vet minimum guy (like Jakarr Sampson), not a near lottery pick in the 1st round.

I’d say we’re essentially “BPA” as long as its not a guy that can only play center. Basically, for this year, that only excludes Alperen Sengun, a Turkish center who doesn’t rate as nearly the player/prospect that Goga was when he was drafted (and that he’s begun to show). Even if we got lucky in the lotto, Evan Mobley could play the 4 for a couple years probably until he fills out later in his career.

[Topofthekey]

My understanding is that the luxury tax is calculated at the end of the season not the beginning. So I'd be willing not to treat it as a hard cap at the time Doug and TJ can be signed as long as we have a plan to get under the line later. That could be by waiving a non-guaranteed player, making a trade like the Phoenix side of the Warren deal, trading with a team with cap room or a trade exemption, or buying someone out and spreading the money over a few years.

This sounds like a workable plan as well

Still, it depends on how much another team is willing to offer Doug and TJ

We may feel that $6-7m is a fair price for TJ, but what if another team decides to throw something like $10m at him, do we try to match that?

I’d assume that Doug won’t get a pay cut from his last contract, so inflation adjusted, that would be essentially the full MLE of $10m this summer. TJ, I’d assume will get up to around the MLE. I’m planning $20m for them combined.

I also don’t necessarily see the need for Doug to return. I see Justin taking that spot fully next season. I also see the emergence of Sumner minimizing the need, along with the return of Warren. Add in a developmental SF with some slashing ability in Kelan Martin (or other options in the draft), the lack of open roster spots for next season, and the surplus of 2nds/exceptions, and I don’t see the need, necessarily.

True, barring a trade, there isn't too much of a need for Doug

But another way of looking at it is, they can make trades without worrying about creating a hole, because they can always re-sign Doug and TJ to fill any holes created after a trade

For example, maybe they can package Warren + their own pick to move up a few spots

Or if the Wolves pick conveyed to the Warriors at #4 or 5, they can maybe do a bigger deal and package Brogdon and Warren and LeVert and their own pick to move up

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Raptor fan, what would you guys want from us to take Turner off your hands?

[Scoot McGroot]

Raptor fan, what would you guys want from us to take Turner off your hands?

There’s just not a great match. The only guy we need to fill a hole would be OG, and you’re not moving him. Siakam is paid almost double what Turner is, so it’s tough to make a roster work here in Indy Long term like that. Fred’s a nice player, but we’ve already got our guards on big contracts.

And, I’m not sure we want to move Turner as he’s the only guy that makes our defense passable.

[Topofthekey]

Raptor fan, what would you guys want from us to take Turner off your hands?

Your pick, if it ends up being top 3

As the poster above mentioned, Siakam's contract is too large, and we already have too many guards and not enough minutes for FVV. And Lowry doesn't fit our timeline

Boucher I'm just not very keen on

OG is a great piece, but even then I see trading Turner for OG as a lateral move. We'd just be trading defense at 5 for defense at 3

What the Pacers really need right now is top end talent, so your pick, if it ends up being top 3, is what Pacers would be interested in

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Raptor fan, what would you guys want from us to take Turner off your hands?

Your pick, if it ends up being top 3

As the poster above mentioned, Siakam's contract is too large, and we already have too many guards and not enough minutes for FVV. And Lowry doesn't fit our timeline

Boucher I'm just not very keen on

OG is a great piece, but even then I see trading Turner for OG as a lateral move. We'd just be trading defense at 5 for defense at 3

What the Pacers really need right now is top end talent, so your pick, if it ends up being top 3, is what Pacers would be interested in

I think Green/Mobley/Cade are all better prospects then Turner and would all fill a need for the Raptors if we landed top 3 tbh. Also would be on rookie deals with team control. Don’t see how that works out for the Raptors

[Wizop]

Raptor fan, what would you guys want from us to take Turner off your hands?

if we break up Turner/Sabonis, we're more likely to move Sabonis as we need GTurner's defense. Sabonis for Boucher and a pick swap? might need filler. Lamb or Aaron Holiday could be added from our side.

[Scoot McGroot]

Raptor fan, what would you guys want from us to take Turner off your hands?

if we break up Turner/Sabonis, we're more likely to move Sabonis as we need GTurner's defense. Sabonis for Boucher and a pick swap? might need filler. Lamb or Aaron Holiday could be added from our side.

Sabonis makes almost triple what Boucher does, so the filler would be from Toronto, not us.

[Tom White]

And Lowry doesn't fit our timeline

I swear I'm not picking on you when I say this (cause many others have said the same thing) but -

We have a timeline?

A timeline to where or what?

This team would be much better served to focus on talent before focusing on age group. Yes, ideally, you try to get a convergence of both. That doesn't seem to be working out very well right now though. Doesn't focusing on an age group also lend itself to having more second (or even third) contracts come due at the same time?

Or maybe I'm just nuts?