Race for Ping Pong Balls

drsd · Post #701 » by **drsd** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:37 am

zaymon wrote:. Never thought i will cheer for Wolves.

They just swept the away-home series with the Jazz. Talk about not understanding Tanking.

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drsd · Post #702 » by **drsd** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:49 am

Over the last 10 games, Orlando made up a 2 game gap on Detroit and a 4-game gap on Minny.

3ddman23 · Post #703 » by **3ddman23** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:32 am

Cavs are missing Larry Nance and sexton now. If we bring any of our vets we may have trouble losing the game on Wednesday...

drsd · Post #704 » by **drsd** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:34 am

Orlando's odds moving forward game by game:

@Cleveland 40% chance for win
@Memphis 27% chance for win
Memphis 36% chance for win
@Detroit 34% chance for win
Boston 25% chance for win
@Charlotte 24% chance for win
Minnesota 50% chance for win
@Milwaukee 14% chance for win
@Atlanta 30% chance for win
@Philadelphia 15% chance for win
@Philadelphia-TBD game 16% chance for win

That is an expected 3-8 outcome for these final 11 games. A loss to @Cleveland might drop down expectations to only 2 wins to close out the season.

We will all pencil in the home game against Minny.

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paperboymafia · Post #705 » by **paperboymafia** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:23 pm

ogmagicfan · Post #706 » by **ogmagicfan** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:41 pm

drsd wrote:Orlando is currently 1/2 game worse than #4 Detroit
Orlando is currently 1/2 game better than #2 Minnesota (and tied in the W column)

Chicago is currently 1 game worse than #10 and #11 New Orleans and Washington
Chicago is currently 1 game better than #7 Sacramento

The computers now like Orlando to finish as the 2nd worst team and Chicago as the 8th worst team. I think that is the sweet spot for both draft picks. The computers also has the Bulls making the play-ins at 20% (i.e. there is an 80% chance that either Washington or Toronto finishes with a higher record).

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Appreciate the updates.

Agree with you that the 8th best odds would be the highest I want the Bulls pick going. The jump in odds of moving into top 4 from moving from 8th to 7th don’t seem worth the trade off of us getting a possible better pick by 1 spot.

ogmagicfan · Post #707 » by **ogmagicfan** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:48 pm

Still amazed at how successful last night was for the tank. The stars are aligning and giving Orlando the opportunity to decide our destiny odds wise. Higher chance at securing a top 5 pick and 6th at absolute worst.

For the posters suggesting we should try to package our pick & the Chi pick to move into the top 4, a 5 & 8 pick look alot better than a 7 & 8 pick to move up with.

Bergmaniac · Post #708 » by **Bergmaniac** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:57 pm

Great night for the tank. Minnesota have a solid roster and aren't resting healthy players to tank, so I am not surprised they are winning some when they finally winning some games when their main players are finally playing together.

axl_c_cool · Post #709 » by **axl_c_cool** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:13 pm

Amazing night, we are in great position, we have to see this out now

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KillMonger · Post #710 » by **KillMonger** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:38 pm

axl_c_cool wrote:Amazing night, we are in great position, we have to see this out now

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If we lose out then 2nd worst odds is definitely ours for the taking as minny is trending upwards plus they play Houston soon....at the most we can only really afford to win 1 more game....things would be easier if the FO decided to help the tank but it is what it is at this point

Skybox · Post #711 » by **Skybox** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 4:11 pm

3ddman23 wrote:Cavs are missing Larry Nance and sexton now. If we bring any of our vets we may have trouble losing the game on Wednesday...

Vets? What vets? :lol:

Skin · Post #712 » by **Skin** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 6:04 pm

KillMonger · Post #713 » by **KillMonger** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 7:38 pm

FiveThirtyEight's Elo predictions for next few games

RookieStar · Post #714 » by **RookieStar** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:24 pm

Unless we get #1 , I don't think we have any chance for Cade. So im settling down for a Green/Suggs pick. I just can't wait for the interview/workouts!!!

BTW, what are the odds NO team moves up or down from their projected spot?

basketballRob · Post #715 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:27 pm

I'm still not convinced we'll get a top 5 pick. We probably go on a 3 game win streak in the last 3 games.

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KillMonger · Post #716 » by **KillMonger** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:29 pm

drsd · Post #717 » by **drsd** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 8:33 pm

KillMonger wrote:

One thing to take from this is that the worst 4 teams are all draft 4th on average. The difference is the spread (variance).

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basketballRob · Post #718 » by **basketballRob** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:58 pm

Minnesota plays Houston tonight! Thursday they play the Warriors, do the Warriors tank that game? If the Twolves fall out of the bottom 3, the Warriors get the pick.

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Xatticus · Post #719 » by **Xatticus** » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:43 pm

RookieStar wrote:Unless we get #1 , I don't think we have any chance for Cade. So im settling down for a Green/Suggs pick. I just can't wait for the interview/workouts!!!

BTW, what are the odds NO team moves up or down from their projected spot?

Zero. Or thereabouts.

0.0002739898

That's about 3 hundredths of a percent.

RookieStar · Post #720 » by **RookieStar** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:25 am

Xatticus wrote:
RookieStar wrote:Unless we get #1 , I don't think we have any chance for Cade. So im settling down for a Green/Suggs pick. I just can't wait for the interview/workouts!!!

BTW, what are the odds NO team moves up or down from their projected spot?

Zero. Or thereabouts.

0.0002739898

That's about 3 hundredths of a percent.

wow... so in the lotto we always expect one of the top5 (record wise) will drop out?