Race for Ping Pong Balls

[Xatticus]

Dallas doesn't move up to get Doncic if they didn't finish worse than Orlando. It didn't really matter that Sacramento jumped into the top 3. There was clearly additional value in winning one game less than Orlando the year before. I think people understand this just fine. There are no guarantees, but there is obvious incentive in giving yourself the best expected value, which is listed right on the tankathon odds page.

[MagicHolland]

People here make sooo much drama about standing like they simply can't wrap their heads around fact that top 3 worst nba teams have equal at getting top 3 pick. It's just matter of how far you can fall.
Difference between 29th or 28th worst record is just matter of that additional 7% chance at falling to 7# slot, where second worst record can't fall past 6th. But those additional 7% chance of falling to 7th by being second worst are not adding to your chance to draft in top 4, they are taken from chance at drating 5th.

Esencially, being 29th instad of 28th just means you have much better chance at drafting 5th than drafting anywhere else, opposite of having biggest chance at drafting 6th.

As for leaping goes, top 3 worst teams have 42% of drafting 1# . However, 4-5-6-7-8 have 45,5% chance at it.
But that's not all, teams ranked between 9-14 spot, have 12,5% at winning lottery (combined), witch happends to be similar chance as individual chances of teams ranked between 1-3 to win it ( 14% vs 12,5%).

No matter how you look at lottery, it always means the same, somebody from outside will leap into top 3 spots, they reformed it to make that a pattern and make teams twice before sucking. Ofc it didn't work because every moron can tear everything down and suck, it really doens't take rocket scientist to demolish.

That's the point. I think most people are fine with one of Cade/Green/Suggs, so not dropping past 4/5 is one way to guarantee that. Cade would be nice but minimalizing how far we fall is important for worst case scenario.

Besides that, what else can we possibly root for. Every win from here on out is useless. I’m hoping for some great performances by our youngsters with close losses..

[pepe1991]

Dallas doesn't move up to get Doncic if they didn't finish worse than Orlando. It didn't really matter that Sacramento jumped into the top 3. There was clearly additional value in winning one game less than Orlando the year before. I think people understand this just fine. There are no guarantees, but there is obvious incentive in giving yourself the best expected value, which is listed right on the tankathon odds page.

It was last draft before reform...
If you look last 2 reformed draft, Hornets won Lamelo Ball by moving up in standings while not playing play in tournament, because Wizards were that awful. If Wizards somehow won just 1 game in playin, they would have had 3rd overall pick in 2020.

If Washington won 1 additional game in 2018-19, they would have been tied with Memphis and Pelicans, teams that went 1# and 2# for Zion and Morant.

This what - if game, is pointless. Magic could have still drafted allstar in 2018 if they traded down or just flat out gambled on SGA or Porter , instad they drafted bust.

[Xatticus]

Dallas doesn't move up to get Doncic if they didn't finish worse than Orlando. It didn't really matter that Sacramento jumped into the top 3. There was clearly additional value in winning one game less than Orlando the year before. I think people understand this just fine. There are no guarantees, but there is obvious incentive in giving yourself the best expected value, which is listed right on the tankathon odds page.

It was last draft before reform...
If you look last 2 reformed draft, Hornets won Lamelo Ball by moving up in standings while not playing play in tournament, because Wizards were that awful. If Wizards somehow won just 1 game in playin, they would have had 3rd overall pick in 2020.

If Washington won 1 additional game in 2018-19, they would have been tied with Memphis and Pelicans, teams that went 1# and 2# for Zion and Morant.

This what - if game, is pointless. Magic could have still drafted allstar in 2018 if they traded down or just flat out gambled on SGA or Porter , instad they drafted bust.

Your point would hold merit if we knew nothing of statistics. We do understand statistics though, so we can appreciate the value of better odds.

The reformed odds reduce the likelihood of the worst teams winning top 4 picks, but it doesn't change the fact that your floor is still higher if you finish with a worse record. Dallas moved down in that lottery, but they still benefited from losing more games than Orlando that year.

[pepe1991]

Dallas doesn't move up to get Doncic if they didn't finish worse than Orlando. It didn't really matter that Sacramento jumped into the top 3. There was clearly additional value in winning one game less than Orlando the year before. I think people understand this just fine. There are no guarantees, but there is obvious incentive in giving yourself the best expected value, which is listed right on the tankathon odds page.

It was last draft before reform...
If you look last 2 reformed draft, Hornets won Lamelo Ball by moving up in standings while not playing play in tournament, because Wizards were that awful. If Wizards somehow won just 1 game in playin, they would have had 3rd overall pick in 2020.

If Washington won 1 additional game in 2018-19, they would have been tied with Memphis and Pelicans, teams that went 1# and 2# for Zion and Morant.

This what - if game, is pointless. Magic could have still drafted allstar in 2018 if they traded down or just flat out gambled on SGA or Porter , instad they drafted bust.

Your point would hold merit if we knew nothing of statistics. We do understand statistics though, so we can appreciate the value of better odds.

The reformed odds reduce the likelihood of the worst teams winning top 4 picks, but it doesn't change the fact that your floor is still higher if you finish with a worse record. Dallas moved down in that lottery, but they still benefited from losing more games than Orlando that year.

It was still Sacramento who leaped over Magic. And even if Magic lost vs Dallas, there was still no guarantee that they would have top 4 pick or that it would change total standings, as Dallas could easly go down later and lose all 10 of remaining games. Actually, team ranked 1 game ahead of Magic, Atlanta, went to win 3 of last 6 games, including win over Orlando.

It's just 100% hidnsight that makes people make comments about how we were 1 win away from Doncic. Every year somebody is mid-season -win over xy team away from getting- *insert allstar name here* . It doesn't work like that. If Magic lost against Suns or Knicks during that tail end, they would still outtank both Suns and Dallas, or maybe not, because in that case maybe Atlanta and Dallas would have lost all of their games. But this is just going into oblivion and rabbithole of who sucked "better". With old draft, not winning single game during 82 games season was best path to secure top pick, Bobcats almost did that and still missed on Anthony Davis and got MKG instad. It's lottery, it's called lottery because you can't secure anything.

[Xatticus]

It was last draft before reform...
If you look last 2 reformed draft, Hornets won Lamelo Ball by moving up in standings while not playing play in tournament, because Wizards were that awful. If Wizards somehow won just 1 game in playin, they would have had 3rd overall pick in 2020.

If Washington won 1 additional game in 2018-19, they would have been tied with Memphis and Pelicans, teams that went 1# and 2# for Zion and Morant.

This what - if game, is pointless. Magic could have still drafted allstar in 2018 if they traded down or just flat out gambled on SGA or Porter , instad they drafted bust.

Your point would hold merit if we knew nothing of statistics. We do understand statistics though, so we can appreciate the value of better odds.

The reformed odds reduce the likelihood of the worst teams winning top 4 picks, but it doesn't change the fact that your floor is still higher if you finish with a worse record. Dallas moved down in that lottery, but they still benefited from losing more games than Orlando that year.

It was still Sacramento who leaped over Magic. And even if Magic lost vs Dallas, there was still no guarantee that they would have top 4 pick or that it would change total standings, as Dallas could easly go down later and lose all 10 of remaining games. Actually, team ranked 1 game ahead of Magic, Atlanta, went to win 3 of last 6 games, including win over Orlando.

It's just 100% hidnsight that makes people make comments about how we were 1 win away from Doncic. Every year somebody is mid-season -win over xy team away from getting- *insert allstar name here* . It doesn't work like that. If Magic lost against Suns or Knicks during that tail end, they would still outtank both Suns and Dallas, or maybe not, because in that case maybe Atlanta and Dallas would have lost all of their games. But this is just going into oblivion and rabbithole of who sucked "better". With old draft, not winning single game during 82 games season was best path to secure top pick, Bobcats almost did that and still missed on Anthony Davis and got MKG instad. It's lottery, it's called lottery because you can't secure anything.

I'm sorry... what is your argument?

You are complaining that people that want to see the Magic finish worse than other teams don't understand how this all works. I pointed out that even if other teams jump the Magic, that it still raises the floor of the pick, which increases the pick's value. It certainly won't always provide as much value as selecting one slot higher in the 2018 draft, but there is additional value. Now you are arguing that the Dallas vs Orlando game was irrelevant because who knows how the season would've played out otherwise... which brings us right back where we started, right? People are hoping that Orlando tanks past other teams to secure better odds.

This is all quite simple. Everyone understands there are no guarantees. I'm just not sure why you are arguing against common sense here.

[SOUL]

Yeah, I'm not quite sure either lol.

I think he's saying that we still need to make the right pick, and it's possible to make the wrong pick even if we're 1st or 2nd in this draft, but you have way more wiggle room with prospects at the top of the draft. There can be 3 or 4 out of 5 players that can change your franchise for the better, but that still leaves a 2/5 chance to choose a bust. This draft is supposed to have a very good top 4-5.

I'd still take those odds over the 8th pick and maybe a 1 or 2 out of 10 chance with players projected around that range that might be an all-star or superstar. More names are in the mix and scouting is harder with certain players between lack of data, opportunity, self improvement, etc. If Booker, SGA, Kawhi, and Giannis were so easy to identify as prospects they obviously would not have gone so late.

[pepe1991]

Arguments:
1) being 3rd worst or the worst doesn't really change probabilty of winning lottery ( or odds of landing 1-2-3-4 slot)
2) very few drafts have clear superstar that is heads and shoulder better than competition so you "have" to win lottery
3) this draft does not have locked superstar, so drafting 1st is not really "must do".
4) picking right player more often than not is more important than being 1-2-3 slots ahead of competition

From 2007 to this date ( and probably longer, i just got tired checking) only Anthony Davis was 1# pick that turned in best player. In all other lotteries , it's somebody else who turned into best player of a draft.

[axl_c_cool]

My understanding is if we finish with the 2nd worst record our floor is thr 5th pick right?

If this is the case it's extremely important we keep the 2nd worst record. This seems to be a 5 person draft with 2 tiers

Tier 1 (star)
Cunningham
Mobley

Tier 2 (all star)
Green
Suggs
Kuminga

We can take a shot with the Bulls pick, securing one of those players above is what's important right now.

Sent from my SM-G950F using RealGM mobile app

[Message Boar]

Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

[pepe1991]

My understanding is if we finish with the 2nd worst record our floor is thr 5th pick right?

If this is the case it's extremely important we keep the 2nd worst record. This seems to be a 5 person draft with 2 tiers

Tier 1 (star)
Cunningham
Mobley

Tier 2 (all star)
Green
Suggs
Kuminga

We can take a shot with the Bulls pick, securing one of those players above is what's important right now.

Sent from my SM-G950F using RealGM mobile app

[pepe1991]

Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

Tankathon is fun thing to do, but pretty usless. Because it was never brodcasted live on tv, people don't grasp how it works.
So, in lottery, only picks that are being drawn- are top 1# , 2# 3# and 4th pick. After that, it goes by order of 2020-21 standings.
That's why 6th worst record has 0% of drafting 5th or 7th having 0% drafting 5th or 6th.

That's why Magic, despite being 2# worst ( in this moment) can still fall out of top 4. In general it's almost guaranteed that team slotted below top 4 will get top 4 pick ( Hornets last year 3#, Pelicans, Memphis 1#,2# picks in 2019).

[basketballRob]

My understanding is if we finish with the 2nd worst record our floor is thr 5th pick right?

If this is the case it's extremely important we keep the 2nd worst record. This seems to be a 5 person draft with 2 tiers

Tier 1 (star)
Cunningham
Mobley

Tier 2 (all star)
Green
Suggs
Kuminga

We can take a shot with the Bulls pick, securing one of those players above is what's important right now.

Sent from my SM-G950F using RealGM mobile app

2nd worst means we have an 80% chance at a top 5. Most people are calling this a top 5 draft. I remember Robbins say anyone of the top 5 would be the best player on this team, and he might be right.


http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

[drsd]

The reformed odds reduce the likelihood of the worst teams winning top 4 picks, but it doesn't change the fact that your floor is still higher if you finish with a worse record. Dallas moved down in that lottery, but they still benefited from losing more games than Orlando that year.

Agreed!

The worst 4 teams are all on average going to most likely draft 4th. What the reduction in the floor does is reduce variance.

For example the worst team is about 50/50 to either draft top-4 or draft 5th.
The second worst team has the same top-4 odds but splits 50/50 the odds to draft 5 or 6.
The third worst team also has the same top-4 odds, but is much more likely to draft 6th than 5th.
The forth worst team has marginally lower odds to go top-4, but is more likely to draft 7th than any one of the top-4 slots.

And heaven forbid the Magic climb to 5th worst:
The 5th worst team is most likely to draft 7th and is more likely to more likely to draft 6-9 than top-4.

..

[drsd]

Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

This is stats in action. And Orlando fans should expect something like the 4th pick as a probable outcome of of the lottery.


Edit: I rolled it 10 times like you did and got:
4, 6, 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5.


So: that's 20 rolls without the 1 or 2 pick. And the 3 pick was only twice out of 20.


..

[paperboymafia]

If we stay where we are i'll keep telling myself we have 4th pick so that if it's higher it'll feel like a nice gift from the basketball Go..i mean odds.

[paperboymafia]

Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

first attempt got us 1st. no need to be worried. ....

i got 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 2, 3, 2, 6, 6, 5, 2 ....

shrug.

[drsd]

Wait.........What?

OKC actually beat someone? really? HOW??? that is by far the worst team on paper ive seen since the early hinkie 76ers. I honestly didnt think they would win another game all year, let alone beat a celtics team fighting for the playoffs AND have Brown go off for almost 40....Pure insanity

OKC had 27 TOs to 14 from Boston - i.e. OKC had 13 more TOs !!!!

The win came from dominant rebounding and lights out 3-balls on both ends (high hit rate and high defend rate). In the end Thunder took 19 less three-ball shots than the Celts, but hit 2 more. What a stat.

[drsd]

Three pages of excitement about the Thunder win is diluting another fact: Minnesota has now won three straight games!

[paperboymafia]

Wait.........What?

OKC actually beat someone? really? HOW??? that is by far the worst team on paper ive seen since the early hinkie 76ers. I honestly didnt think they would win another game all year, let alone beat a celtics team fighting for the playoffs AND have Brown go off for almost 40....Pure insanity

OKC had 27 TOs to 14 from Boston - i.e. OKC had 13 more TOs !!!!

The win came from dominant rebounding and lights out 3-balls on both ends (high hit rate and high defend rate). In the end Thunder took 19 less three-ball shots than the Celts, but hit 2 more. What a stat.

Crazy stats in that game, also Evan with 5 steals alongside Smart with 5 too and 4 for Brown...