Race for Ping Pong Balls

Nyce_1 · Post #781 » by **Nyce_1** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 1:44 pm

we need some luck, man. just have pray our winning combo comes up on the first try on June 22nd.

JBSouthpaw · Post #782 » by **JBSouthpaw** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:04 pm

We need to go at worst 1-1 with Cleveland and Detroit, we CAN NOT win both of those.
Glad they are both away.

Post #783 » by **Knightro** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 2:18 pm

axl_c_cool wrote:My understanding is if we finish with the 2nd worst record our floor is thr 5th pick right?

If this is the case it's extremely important we keep the 2nd worst record. This seems to be a 5 person draft with 2 tiers

No. If the Magic end up with the 2nd worst record, their worst case scenario is the 6th overall pick. That would happen if four teams who weren't the Rockets or Magic hit the lottery.

If you have the worst record, the worst your pick could be is 5th.
If you have the 2nd worst record, the worst your pick could be is 6th.
If you have the 3rd worst record, the worst your pick could be is 7th.

drsd · Post #784 » by **drsd** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:00 pm

Knightro wrote:
axl_c_cool wrote:My understanding is if we finish with the 2nd worst record our floor is thr 5th pick right?

If this is the case it's extremely important we keep the 2nd worst record. This seems to be a 5 person draft with 2 tiers

No. If the Magic end up with the 2nd worst record, their worst case scenario is the 6th overall pick. That would happen if four teams who weren't the Rockets or Magic hit the lottery.

If you have the worst record, the worst your pick could be is 5th.
If you have the 2nd worst record, the worst your pick could be is 6th.
If you have the 3rd worst record, the worst your pick could be is 7th.

And-1

And to add, the collective odds that three teams jump the Magic and the Rockets is 20.02%. That is, if/when Orlando finishes as the 2nd worst team in the NBA, there is a 79.98% chance the team drafts in the top-5.

..

HayKee · Post #785 » by **HayKee** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:09 pm

Message Boar wrote:Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

I swear Tankathon's algo intentionally **** with Magic fans. I spin it every once in a while and the Magic always fall & half the time the Bulls get #1.

BDill012 · Post #786 » by **BDill012** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:34 pm

drsd wrote:
Message Boar wrote:Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

This is stats in action. And Orlando fans should expect something like the 4th pick as a probable outcome of of the lottery.

Edit: I rolled it 10 times like you did and got:
4, 6, 4, 5, 4, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5.

So: that's 20 rolls without the 1 or 2 pick. And the 3 pick was only twice out of 20.

..

So, out of curiosity, I did the same and got the following results:

1st pick - 3 times
2nd pick - 1 time
3rd pick - 1 time
4th pick - 1 time
5th pick - 3 times
6th pick - 1 time

Found it interesting. Seems like I had the most luck with getting the first pick.

Creativetran · Post #787 » by **Creativetran** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 3:59 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Arguments:
1) being 3rd worst or the worst doesn't really change probabilty of winning lottery ( or odds of landing 1-2-3-4 slot)
2) very few drafts have clear superstar that is heads and shoulder better than competition so you "have" to win lottery
3) this draft does not have locked superstar, so drafting 1st is not really "must do".
4) picking right player more often than not is more important than being 1-2-3 slots ahead of competition

From 2007 to this date ( and probably longer, i just got tired checking) only Anthony Davis was 1# pick that turned in best player. In all other lotteries , it's somebody else who turned into best player of a draft.

I don't get your points your trying to argue...

The Effect · Post #788 » by **The Effect** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 4:39 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:we need some luck, man. just have pray our winning combo comes up on the first try on June 22nd.

I dont know why but i have a feeling this is our year, we are gonna be in the top 3

Ive never felt like that before except maybe during the Wiggins draft when i thought we would get a top 2 pick and get wiggins or jabari, but something about this year feels right....its gonna happen

CZ Eddie · Post #789 » by **CZ Eddie** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 9:51 pm

HayKee wrote:
Message Boar wrote:Did the tankathon spin 10 times in a row just now:

Results: 5, 5, 5, 6, 4, 6, 6, 6, 6, 3.

I think I'm going to be sick...

I swear Tankathon's algo intentionally **** with Magic fans. I spin it every once in a while and the Magic always fall & half the time the Bulls get #1.

Hah, it did that to me once

Magic fell four spots and the Bulls took #1. :lol:

p0peye · Post #790 » by **p0peye** » Wed Apr 28, 2021 10:40 pm

It's not Tankathon algorithm, it is change in rules. While before usual result was for a team to slide by 1 position down, now it is as likely to slide 4 positions down as it is to win the damn thing.

BCS · Post #791 » by **BCS** » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:02 pm

Just saw Doncic is out against the Pistons. Please let that be enough.

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basketballRob · Post #792 » by **basketballRob** » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:25 pm

Surprised that Golden State isn't tanking against Minnesota.

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basketballRob · Post #793 » by **basketballRob** » Thu Apr 29, 2021 11:29 pm

BCS wrote:Just saw Doncic is out against the Pistons. Please let that be enough.

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Detroit resting Joseph, Grant, Ellington, and Plumlee.

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KillMonger · Post #794 » by **KillMonger** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:49 am

basketballRob · Post #795 » by **basketballRob** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:44 am

Detroit blew it down the stretch. They fouled THJ on consecutive 3pt shots in the final 3 minutes.

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penny_nz · Post #796 » by **penny_nz** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:21 am

T Wolves up going into the final 2 minutes

basketballRob · Post #797 » by **basketballRob** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:23 am

penny_nz wrote:T Wolves up going into the final 2 minutes

Houston looks like they'll win too.

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RookieStar · Post #798 » by **RookieStar** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:25 am

Is MIN really gonna win?

penny_nz · Post #799 » by **penny_nz** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:25 am

basketballRob wrote:
penny_nz wrote:T Wolves up going into the final 2 minutes
Houston looks like they'll win too.

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Just saw that, wow! Also saw in the box score Giannis only played 45 seconds, he get hurt?

penny_nz · Post #800 » by **penny_nz** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:27 am

Wolves seal the win! This team is going to win plenty in the final stretch