What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[playa-hater]

Cross posting this from the VC thread, but here’s a breakdown of his season.

Pre covid (10 games) 27/7/4 on a 59% TS
Post covid (21 games) 24/7/5 on a 53% TS
Post all star break (25 games) 27/8/5 on a 60% TS.

I don’t know how much more clear it can be that covid is the main explanation for why he had such a poor stretch. Of course he played poorly at times himself, not related to covid, but the numbers speak for themselves.

He’d likely be averaging 27/7/4-5 on a 60ish% TS if he never got covid, in his age 22 season, while dealing with other teams game plan being built around stopping him. This is very clearly not a Jaylen versus Jayson thing, just using Jaylen’s age to show how young Tatum is. Jaylen is pretty damn young, is going to be 25 all of next season, Tatum will be 23 for a majority of next season. Imagine where he is going to be when he is 25 years old, good lord.

agree ^

Wish there was a way to convince Tatum that mid-range fade-aways are not allowed unless you are beating the shot clock in desperation. Same for one leggers. If he improved on making the extra pass and/or drawing contact and more FTs, he would be unstoppable and a top 5 player year in and out.

[Feed Your Head]

Cross posting this from the VC thread, but here’s a breakdown of his season.

Pre covid (10 games) 27/7/4 on a 59% TS
Post covid (21 games) 24/7/5 on a 53% TS
Post all star break (25 games) 27/8/5 on a 60% TS.

I don’t know how much more clear it can be that covid is the main explanation for why he had such a poor stretch. Of course he played poorly at times himself, not related to covid, but the numbers speak for themselves.

He’d likely be averaging 27/7/4-5 on a 60ish% TS if he never got covid, in his age 22 season, while dealing with other teams game plan being built around stopping him. This is very clearly not a Jaylen versus Jayson thing, just using Jaylen’s age to show how young Tatum is. Jaylen is pretty damn young, is going to be 25 all of next season, Tatum will be 23 for a majority of next season. Imagine where he is going to be when he is 25 years old, good lord.

agree ^

Wish there was a way to convince Tatum that mid-range fade-aways are not allowed unless you are beating the shot clock in desperation. Same for one leggers. If he improved on making the extra pass and/or drawing contact and more FTs, he would be unstoppable and a top 5 player year in and out.

I think we are in the midst of him figuring out how to get to the line in the regular season. Here are his FT attempts in the last 10 games

16/8/10/0/8/8/8/7/7/8

That is a damn good sign. The turnovers have been bad lately, and he needs to clean that up but he’s done a really good job of moving the ball recently. I’ve always been super bullish on Tatum, but I didn’t think he’d be as good of an all around player as he already is.

[playa-hater]

Cross posting this from the VC thread, but here’s a breakdown of his season.

Pre covid (10 games) 27/7/4 on a 59% TS
Post covid (21 games) 24/7/5 on a 53% TS
Post all star break (25 games) 27/8/5 on a 60% TS.

I don’t know how much more clear it can be that covid is the main explanation for why he had such a poor stretch. Of course he played poorly at times himself, not related to covid, but the numbers speak for themselves.

He’d likely be averaging 27/7/4-5 on a 60ish% TS if he never got covid, in his age 22 season, while dealing with other teams game plan being built around stopping him. This is very clearly not a Jaylen versus Jayson thing, just using Jaylen’s age to show how young Tatum is. Jaylen is pretty damn young, is going to be 25 all of next season, Tatum will be 23 for a majority of next season. Imagine where he is going to be when he is 25 years old, good lord.

agree ^

Wish there was a way to convince Tatum that mid-range fade-aways are not allowed unless you are beating the shot clock in desperation. Same for one leggers. If he improved on making the extra pass and/or drawing contact and more FTs, he would be unstoppable and a top 5 player year in and out.

I think we are in the midst of him figuring out how to get to the line in the regular season. Here are his FT attempts in the last 10 games

16/8/10/0/8/8/8/7/7/8

That is a damn good sign. The turnovers have been bad lately, and he needs to clean that up but he’s done a really good job of moving the ball recently. I’ve always been super bullish on Tatum, but I didn’t think he’d be as good of an all around player as he already is.

agreed again ^

[Feed Your Head]

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[playa-hater]

I love watching film vs looking at stats. So I can't confirm what I believe/think may be true. But when Tatum posts up on the high block area, and/or closer, he is unstoppable and very productive. His ability to take one dribble, raise up and shoot or spin move or even a non fadeaway floater and/or draw fouls may/should be his go to crunch time play.

No more Iso's from so far away please. Keep him on the move without the ball and you will notice great footwork and rip moves. I have already posted he has top 5 and MVP potential yearly as his ceiling. After tonight's monster 60 points and No turnovers it should be really hard to not agree.

[zoyathedestroya]

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[MaxwellSmart]

He's got a chance to have back to back 60 point games at this moment.

[Fencer reregistered]

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I have multiple thoughts on that.
-- Tatum's only relationship with his Dad is a weird story. We've been told that his single mother raised Jayson in serious poverty. We've also been told that at some point Jayson's Dad gave up his overseas career and came back to the US to be very involved in the life of his son. Even if some part of that is sanitized, Jayson's obviously experienced both extremes of unmarried-Dad involvement.
-- Evidently, his reaction to that is to be the best and most involved Dad he can to his own son.
-- All the attention on that may have made him into a powerful role model. That must be nice for somebody who has few other celebrity-leadership kinds of skills.
-- Having his mother around is surely an influence on all that.
-- He's managed to keep his love/sex life quiet for quite a while. (His college girlfriend did tee off on him pretty hard when she found out he'd impregnated his high school squeeze.) We're told that he's not in a committed relationship with Deuce's mama, but that's all we know. And I doubt that relationship is entirely platonic, given that she and Deuce visited him in the Orlando bubble ...

[playa-hater]

He's got a chance to have back to back 60 point games at this moment.

Por does suck on Defense so yeah. but I am thinking he gets way more attention now and I want others to be ready to step up. J Brown-PP-Nesmith-Smart better be ready.

[playa-hater]

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?s=20

I have multiple thoughts on that.
-- Tatum's only relationship with his Dad is a weird story. We've been told that his single mother raised Jayson in serious poverty. We've also been told that at some point Jayson's Dad gave up his overseas career and came back to the US to be very involved in the life of his son. Even if some part of that is sanitized, Jayson's obviously experienced both extremes of unmarried-Dad involvement.
-- Evidently, his reaction to that is to be the best and most involved Dad he can to his own son.
-- All the attention on that may have made him into a powerful role model. That must be nice for somebody who has few other celebrity-leadership kinds of skills.
-- Having his mother around is surely an influence on all that.
-- He's managed to keep his love/sex life quiet for quite a while. (His college girlfriend did tee off on him pretty hard when she found out he'd impregnated his high school squeeze.) We're told that he's not in a committed relationship with Deuce's mama, but that's all we know. And I doubt that relationship is entirely platonic, given that she and Deuce visited him in the Orlando bubble ...

My main thought concerning this is, lets get/keep Deuce coming to all home and some Road games. Everyone wins, including the Celtics!!

[Feed Your Head]

He's got a chance to have back to back 60 point games at this moment.

Por does suck on Defense so yeah. but I am thinking he gets way more attention now and I want others to be ready to step up. J Brown-PP-Nesmith-Smart better be ready.

I don’t know if he is going to have 3/4 defensive players geared to stop him instead of the usual 2/3

I’d expect him to have just a regular old 20-30 point game today, no way he isn’t still tired from the other night lol.

[31to6]

60 is obviously an incredible number.
But the diversity of ways he’s scoring remains stuck in my head.
I would wager that few players have ever scored so many different ways in one game.
Inside, outside, transition... Jayson Tatum has it ALL

Watch on YouTube

[bisme37]

[Feed Your Head]

Following up on the topic on the GB, I’d probably rank him 9th, but wouldn’t argue with anyone who has him in the 11-13 range either.

[playa-hater]

Since the thread title asks what Tatum's ceiling is and not what he is ranked, His ceiling is clearly GOAT and this thread should be closed..

[Fencer reregistered]

60 is obviously an incredible number.
But the diversity of ways he’s scoring remains stuck in my head.
I would wager that few players have ever scored so many different ways in one game.
Inside, outside, transition... Jayson Tatum has it ALL

Watch on YouTube

Bird's 60 point game featured 1-4 3pt shooting, although it looked like more on the video.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198503120ATL.html

Watch on YouTube

Bird's baskets included some transition, a lot of other catch-and-shoot, a lot of tough face-ups and fallaways (overlaps with the previous category), a few drives, and some classic big man post play.

His last few shot opportunities were spoon-fed to boost his numbers, but it was all in regulation.

And by the way -- like another of Bird's most famous scoring games, it was against Nique and the Hawks, and thus against Doc Rivers as well.

[31to6]

60 is obviously an incredible number.
But the diversity of ways he’s scoring remains stuck in my head.
I would wager that few players have ever scored so many different ways in one game.
Inside, outside, transition... Jayson Tatum has it ALL

Watch on YouTube

Bird's 60 point game featured 1-4 3pt shooting, although it looked like more on the video.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/198503120ATL.html

Watch on YouTube

Bird's baskets included some transition, a lot of other catch-and-shoot, a lot of tough face-ups and fallaways (overlaps with the previous category), a few drives, and some classic big man post play.

His last few shot opportunities were spoon-fed to boost his numbers, but it was all in regulation.

And by the way -- like another of Bird's most famous scoring games, it was against Nique and the Hawks, and thus against Doc Rivers as well.

Fencer, you need not remind me the splendor of Larry's career night, though I appreciate the link to the highlights. I've been watching since the mid-80s and maintain that I've never seen anyone play basketball better than Larry Bird.

When Tatum *should* have been awarded an 'and-1' near the end of OT to give him a FT to get to 61 (instead of two FTs to reach 60), I suddenly had very mixed feelings!

But in an era of '3s and layups' I thought his diverse repertoire was impressive. I know we could all do without the Kobe tribute 20-ft fadeaways, but I LOVE seeing Tatum finish strong in the paint, in part because I suspect he stays up all night watching his own highlights, and seeing those successful finishes is the best stand-in for coaching that he's going to get in this part of his career.

[Feed Your Head]

I take back my concerns about if he can be a championship #1 scorer, his increase in getting to the line is for real, and is a game changer. He’s incredible, though he needs to clean up the turnovers, is having the worst stretch of his career with them.

We ask him to do so much though, and it doesn’t matter who is in the court for us, other defenses entire game plan is to slow Tatum down, and make everyone else beat them. What he’s doing at his age is pretty insane, growing pains and all.

[Feed Your Head]

Second time in April, have to think he will win player of the month.

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[RB34]

42/6/6 for the week, my god!