bondom34 wrote:Dadouv47 wrote:bondom34 wrote:[url][/url]
Yeah I'm not entirely sure either but think that's all they're doing. But now I'm googling to check the math and remember probability and found:
Which is what that would be. Only 1 needs to happen for them to get a single top 5 pick, which is what was being done, so the addition would work. They're independent but it is asking if either/or happens. From what I can gather I think that's what the Ringer is doing?
That's my problem. You can't consider them as independent. If you don't get the 48% from Houston you can't add 44% for OKC since one of those four places will be for the Rockets.
So our odds to should be 47,9% + 44.2% - 10.5 or 10.6.
= 81.6 or 81.7%
This actually makes a bit more sense. I think this might be it, still really high but think that's it, you just need to subtract out their odds for getting one of the picks. Or subtract out the percentage for Houston which is still upper 70s. But they may be off slightly and it's somewhere closer to where you said.
Makes a bit more sense I think.
Wait....but now I'm not sure again lol.
I'm not sure it's asking that "if" part. Just the odds of any of the events happening.