Miami Heat Regular Season/Speculation Thread 2021 Part 3

[Flash4thewin]

I knew that last years Finals appearance would setup unrealistic expectations for this season lol... fire spo? Lol... this thread is toxic...

We made the Finals last year, riding on the backs of Spoelstra’s defense... the same defense that we rode for 4 finals appearances during the big 3.. but we dont have a player like Lebron or Wade or hell even Bosh, to count on to take over our offense in the fourth quarter. We’re not built for that.. If we had a guy like Beal, we would probably have 8 more wins right now sitting at the third seed.

Next offseason i expect Riley to turn back the clock to 2004 and offer everything and anything he can to get that third star. Thsts the Riley i know.. holding off on Lowry because Toronto asked for **** Tyler Herro is not the Riley i know..

thats like Riley telling the Lakers hey no deal for Shaq if youre asking for Caron Butler...

I dont think anyone wants to fire Spo. Also when Harden is available but we want to wait it out and now want Beal when hes not available?
Pat is Pat, and his recent moves and lack of moves speak for themselves. The Pat of today, nothing like the Pat 15 years ago that got us Shaq, unfortunately we need to remember that.

[Hallstar]

I understand not trading for Lowry and his contract; Lowry's not a star-- not even by a stretch of the definition of the word. Maybe we can have the convo about Cp, but not Lowry

Herro isnt a star, will never be a star... his ceiling has been reached... hes not devin booker or klay... hes not even oladipo.. hes ray allen 2014 at best

Lol, these hot takes are getting crazier. How is his ceiling being played out of position because of poor roster construction.

[RexBoyWonder]

1) Lowry (at this stage of his career) isn't enough to take us to contention. We need someone better.

2) If we give him a 1 year deal, I won't hate it. Mainly because the free agents market is trash this offseason.

3) We just absolutely must avoid giving long term money to old man Lowry or breakable Oladipo. Both are fine as a 1 year gamble, because there might not be great free agents options out there this offseason. But we can't commit more years then 1. We have to keep searching for that 3rd star, we'll get someone eventually, hoping Sonner rather then later.

Just have to hope we can land a true 3rd star somehow.

[twix2500]

I think I heard someone say Dipo been practicing with the team. Can't remember where I heard it. Hopefully its true. Would like to see a defensive point guard on the court at times

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[NBADraft2003]

I understand not trading for Lowry and his contract; Lowry's not a star-- not even by a stretch of the definition of the word. Maybe we can have the convo about Cp, but not Lowry

Herro isnt a star, will never be a star... his ceiling has been reached... hes not devin booker or klay... hes not even oladipo.. hes ray allen 2014 at best

He’s 21..

In his SECOND season...

[MadD23]

Herro is 21 and has at least a couple more years to go before we can fully get a grasp on his ceiling. He has shown enough skills offensively to make a patient objective fan optimistic about his future as a player.

What he also needs is a coach with enough common sense to play him with a good defensive lineup to hide his weaknesses defensively. He'll never be a top defender, but he could become average and a stud offensively. He is also a great rebounder and has shown good court vision and the ability to finish at the rim.

Give him a couple of more years and he should be fine. Of course, that's assuming he stays focused and Katia doesn't turn him into a party animal in South Beach.

[Hallstar]

Herro is 21 and has at least a couple more years to go before we can fully get a grasp on his ceiling. He has shown enough skills offensively to make a patient objective fan optimistic about his future as a player.

What he also needs is a coach with enough common sense to play him with a good defensive lineup to hide his weaknesses defensively. He'll never be a top defender, but he could become average and a stud offensively. He is also a great rebounder and has shown good court vision and the ability to finish at the rim.

Give him a couple of more years and he should be fine. Of course, that's assuming he stays focused and Katia doesn't turn him into a party animal in South Beach.

I need people to find the 21 yr old that gets benched after avg 17/6/4 for 14 games to start the season. It's not because we were playing .500 ball, we ended up doing that all year anyway.

What happened is we have a bunch of specialists that can do only one thing and put the 21 year old as the he'll succeed anywhere player.

[gom]

Herro isnt a star, will never be a star... his ceiling has been reached... hes not devin booker or klay... hes not even oladipo.. hes ray allen 2014 at best

This is such a lazy take. Ray Allen 2014 when you needed a 3 was ok, right?

[carnageta]

We were up by 5 in Philly with 20 seconds left, and we choked and gave that game away.

We were up and in control against Charlotte at home, and we choked and gave that game away (the infamous Jimmy Butler “give me the basketball” game).

We were up and in control against the Warriors in Oakland and choked and gave that game away in the final minutes.

We had a 8 point lead with 8 minutes left against a subpar Bulls team, at home, and we choked and gave that game away as well.

We win these 4 games (which were very winnable) and we are sitting at 37-26 right now, comfortably in 4th place with a chance to even get the third seed.

Every. Game. Matters.

This year we have not won close games down the stretch. Last year we did.

At 37-26, I think the narrative around our entire season would have been different.

[twix2500]

1) Lowry (at this stage of his career) isn't enough to take us to contention. We need someone better.

2) If we give him a 1 year deal, I won't hate it. Mainly because the free agents market is trash this offseason.

3) We just absolutely must avoid giving long term money to old man Lowry or breakable Oladipo. Both are fine as a 1 year gamble, because there might not be great free agents options out there this offseason. But we can't commit more years then 1. We have to keep searching for that 3rd star, we'll get someone eventually, hoping Sonner rather then later.

Just have to hope we can land a true 3rd star somehow.

Rex what level of star do you think the player needs to be at the minimum, 1st tier, 2nd tier or 3rd tier?

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[AirP.]

Herro is 21 and has at least a couple more years to go before we can fully get a grasp on his ceiling. He has shown enough skills offensively to make a patient objective fan optimistic about his future as a player.

What he also needs is a coach with enough common sense to play him with a good defensive lineup to hide his weaknesses defensively. He'll never be a top defender, but he could become average and a stud offensively. He is also a great rebounder and has shown good court vision and the ability to finish at the rim.

Give him a couple of more years and he should be fine. Of course, that's assuming he stays focused and Katia doesn't turn him into a party animal in South Beach.

I need people to find the 21 yr old that gets benched after avg 17/6/4 for 14 games to start the season. It's not because we were playing .500 ball, we ended up doing that all year anyway.

What happened is we have a bunch of specialists that can do only one thing and put the 21 year old as the he'll succeed anywhere player.

Off the top of my head I thought of MCW who won the Rookie of the Year. Looking him up he was a 22 year old rookie who put up 17/6/6 with way better defense then Herro. MCW is currently 29 and most haven't heard a whole bunch from him since those early Philly days.

Most teams that give young players that many minutes actually are one of the best players on their team, normally because the rest of the roster is bad. Miami is trying to win games and this year Herro has made Miami worse with him on the court. As for someone who should have gotten bench after averaging 23/2/4 but the FO refused to allow the coach to bench him, Wiggins went on to get a max contract from the owner because of "potential" and later have Minnesota give up a possible high lottery pick just to get rid of him at ripe old age of 24.

Yes Herro can work on his shot and become more consistent, sure he can work on his ball handling but his potential is also tied to his size for his position and his athletic ability. Unless he learns some incredible fakes that throw off most starters, he's going to have a hard time being an efficient scorer as a starter.

Also, it's REALLY hard as a franchise to ask most of your players to bust their ass to try to win and then let a player that hurts the team get his "development" minutes.

[AirP.]

If only he'd work on his 3 like he did his first couple of years in Chicago. I do wonder if playing nearly a whole season with turf toe in Chicago pushed him to abandon working on his 3.

Read on Twitter

[Hallstar]

Herro is 21 and has at least a couple more years to go before we can fully get a grasp on his ceiling. He has shown enough skills offensively to make a patient objective fan optimistic about his future as a player.

What he also needs is a coach with enough common sense to play him with a good defensive lineup to hide his weaknesses defensively. He'll never be a top defender, but he could become average and a stud offensively. He is also a great rebounder and has shown good court vision and the ability to finish at the rim.

Give him a couple of more years and he should be fine. Of course, that's assuming he stays focused and Katia doesn't turn him into a party animal in South Beach.

I need people to find the 21 yr old that gets benched after avg 17/6/4 for 14 games to start the season. It's not because we were playing .500 ball, we ended up doing that all year anyway.

What happened is we have a bunch of specialists that can do only one thing and put the 21 year old as the he'll succeed anywhere player.

Off the top of my head I thought of MCW who won the Rookie of the Year. Looking him up he was a 22 year old rookie who put up 17/6/6 with way better defense then Herro. MCW is currently 29 and most haven't heard a whole bunch from him since those early Philly days.

Most teams that give young players that many minutes actually are one of the best players on their team, normally because the rest of the roster is bad. Miami is trying to win games and this year Herro has made Miami worse with him on the court. As for someone who should have gotten bench after averaging 23/2/4 but the FO refused to allow the coach to bench him, Wiggins went on to get a max contract from the owner because of "potential" and later have Minnesota give up a possible high lottery pick just to get rid of him at ripe old age of 24.

Yes Herro can work on his shot and become more consistent, sure he can work on his ball handling but his potential is also tied to his size for his position and his athletic ability. Unless he learns some incredible fakes that throw off most starters, he's going to have a hard time being an efficient scorer as a starter.

Also, it's REALLY hard as a franchise to ask most of your players to bust their ass to try to win and then let a player that hurts the team get his "development" minutes.

MCW also couldn't score for **** outside of at the rim and Philly had a strict idea of what they wanted from each position in their rebuild. It's not about development minutes, it's that he's the young player they feel can "fit in" wherever they put him because someone like Duncan has ONE role and is pointless outside of it.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

I need people to find the 21 yr old that gets benched after avg 17/6/4 for 14 games to start the season. It's not because we were playing .500 ball, we ended up doing that all year anyway.

What happened is we have a bunch of specialists that can do only one thing and put the 21 year old as the he'll succeed anywhere player.

Off the top of my head I thought of MCW who won the Rookie of the Year. Looking him up he was a 22 year old rookie who put up 17/6/6 with way better defense then Herro. MCW is currently 29 and most haven't heard a whole bunch from him since those early Philly days.

Most teams that give young players that many minutes actually are one of the best players on their team, normally because the rest of the roster is bad. Miami is trying to win games and this year Herro has made Miami worse with him on the court. As for someone who should have gotten bench after averaging 23/2/4 but the FO refused to allow the coach to bench him, Wiggins went on to get a max contract from the owner because of "potential" and later have Minnesota give up a possible high lottery pick just to get rid of him at ripe old age of 24.

Yes Herro can work on his shot and become more consistent, sure he can work on his ball handling but his potential is also tied to his size for his position and his athletic ability. Unless he learns some incredible fakes that throw off most starters, he's going to have a hard time being an efficient scorer as a starter.

Also, it's REALLY hard as a franchise to ask most of your players to bust their ass to try to win and then let a player that hurts the team get his "development" minutes.

MCW also couldn't score for **** outside of at the rim. It's not about development minutes, it's that he's the young player they feel can "fit in" wherever they put him because someone like Duncan has ONE role and is pointless outside of it.

Duncan does have only one role but he's actually a positive for the team in that one role. Herro isn't a positive in any role right now, he will occasionally have a nice scoring outburst but besides that he seems to be a negative on the court. I can't say he'll never become a high level player but I lean heavily towards that it won't happen, enough to not keep me from using him to acquire other proven good players.

Had this FO not worried about cap flexibility and was able to bring in good talent, Herro might not be getting the minutes he's been getting and more than likely wouldn't have even sniffed being a starter at this point in his career, maybe any point in his career if his teams are "good".

[AirP.]

Read on Twitter

[AirP.]

One of the Miami podcasts mentioned Oladipo sitting with the team last night. Seems they were right. Bam's big dunk gets Oladipo up out of his seat and steps over the on court divider. Almost seems like he's about ready to return to play like Ira indicated 2 days ago.

Read on Twitter

Here's a link to the NBA.com HD version of that play, it's the cutting dunk in the 4th quarter and shows a little more then the twitter clip.

[MadD23]

Spoiler:

Off the top of my head I thought of MCW who won the Rookie of the Year. Looking him up he was a 22 year old rookie who put up 17/6/6 with way better defense then Herro. MCW is currently 29 and most haven't heard a whole bunch from him since those early Philly days.

Most teams that give young players that many minutes actually are one of the best players on their team, normally because the rest of the roster is bad. Miami is trying to win games and this year Herro has made Miami worse with him on the court. As for someone who should have gotten bench after averaging 23/2/4 but the FO refused to allow the coach to bench him, Wiggins went on to get a max contract from the owner because of "potential" and later have Minnesota give up a possible high lottery pick just to get rid of him at ripe old age of 24.

Yes Herro can work on his shot and become more consistent, sure he can work on his ball handling but his potential is also tied to his size for his position and his athletic ability. Unless he learns some incredible fakes that throw off most starters, he's going to have a hard time being an efficient scorer as a starter.

Also, it's REALLY hard as a franchise to ask most of your players to bust their ass to try to win and then let a player that hurts the team get his "development" minutes.

MCW also couldn't score for **** outside of at the rim. It's not about development minutes, it's that he's the young player they feel can "fit in" wherever they put him because someone like Duncan has ONE role and is pointless outside of it.

Duncan does have only one role but he's actually a positive for the team in that one role. Herro isn't a positive in any role right now, he will occasionally have a nice scoring outburst but besides that he seems to be a negative on the court. I can't say he'll never become a high level player but I lean heavily towards that it won't happen, enough to not keep me from using him to acquire other proven good players.

Had this FO not worried about cap flexibility and was able to bring in good talent, Herro might not be getting the minutes he's been getting and more than likely wouldn't have even sniffed being a starter at this point in his career, maybe any point in his career if his teams are "good".

Right because you are ignoring the fact that Herro is not the one starting along the best offensive and defensive players on the team. Herro is playing with Dragic, a bunch of no ones who can't score and maybe one or two good defenders. But then again, Duncan doesn't have that problem. That's why I said he needed to play with better defenders to hide his weaknesses. At the moment his negative has more to do with the lineups he is playing than him as a player.

[Wiltside]

I think we probably need to understand that Lowry is likely coming here. If nothing else but to keep Jimmy happy.

Tbf he does help on the court, and we could line up his expiry with Jimmy to open up some big cap space in 2023. Just seems like such a long way away, and by that time Jimmy will probably be on the downhill slide.

[AirP.]

Spoiler:

MCW also couldn't score for **** outside of at the rim. It's not about development minutes, it's that he's the young player they feel can "fit in" wherever they put him because someone like Duncan has ONE role and is pointless outside of it.

Duncan does have only one role but he's actually a positive for the team in that one role. Herro isn't a positive in any role right now, he will occasionally have a nice scoring outburst but besides that he seems to be a negative on the court. I can't say he'll never become a high level player but I lean heavily towards that it won't happen, enough to not keep me from using him to acquire other proven good players.

Had this FO not worried about cap flexibility and was able to bring in good talent, Herro might not be getting the minutes he's been getting and more than likely wouldn't have even sniffed being a starter at this point in his career, maybe any point in his career if his teams are "good".

Right because you are ignoring the fact that Herro is not the one starting along the best offensive and defensive players on the team. Herro is playing with Dragic, a bunch of no ones who can't score and maybe one or two good defenders. But then again, Duncan doesn't have that problem. That's why I said he needed to play with better defenders to hide his weaknesses. At the moment his negative has more to do with the lineups he is playing than him as a player.

That's your logic? At no time while you were writing that did it occur to you that he's also going against bench players and should be feasting on the lesser players? I'm going to go out on a limb and say moving any one of the current starters to the bench that they would become more efficient scorers going against the other team's bench more often then the starters. I just don't see how a player's offense should get worse from playing against starters to bench players and interesting enough, Herro is one of the least efficient offensive players on the bench.

So why do other non starters seem more efficient then Herro?
Just looking at TS%
Strus .594
Dragic .553
Precious .549
Harkless .540
Herro .529

How about ortg?
Strus 113
Precious 106
Dragic 104
Harkless 104
Iggy 103
Herro 101
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2021.html

Herro not being with the starters are making him miss open 3s? League average is 36.6%
Wide Open 3s, not so much 32.7% (15.6% of his shots)
Open 3 Herro is above league average 37.3% (17.5% of his shots)
Tightly defended 3s, 31.4% (only 8.1% of his shots)
Very tightly defended 3s 33.3% (only 0.5% of his shots)

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629639/shots-dash/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

[Hallstar]

Spoiler:

Duncan does have only one role but he's actually a positive for the team in that one role. Herro isn't a positive in any role right now, he will occasionally have a nice scoring outburst but besides that he seems to be a negative on the court. I can't say he'll never become a high level player but I lean heavily towards that it won't happen, enough to not keep me from using him to acquire other proven good players.

Had this FO not worried about cap flexibility and was able to bring in good talent, Herro might not be getting the minutes he's been getting and more than likely wouldn't have even sniffed being a starter at this point in his career, maybe any point in his career if his teams are "good".

Right because you are ignoring the fact that Herro is not the one starting along the best offensive and defensive players on the team. Herro is playing with Dragic, a bunch of no ones who can't score and maybe one or two good defenders. But then again, Duncan doesn't have that problem. That's why I said he needed to play with better defenders to hide his weaknesses. At the moment his negative has more to do with the lineups he is playing than him as a player.

That's your logic? At no time while you were writing that did it occur to you that he's also going against bench players and should be feasting on the lesser players? I'm going to go out on a limb and say moving any one of the current starters to the bench that they would become more efficient scorers going against the other team's bench more often then the starters. I just don't see how a player's offense should get worse from playing against starters to bench players and interesting enough, Herro is one of the least efficient offensive players on the bench.

So why do other non starters seem more efficient then Herro?
Just looking at TS%
Strus .594
Dragic .553
Precious .549
Harkless .540
Herro .529

How about ortg?
Strus 113
Precious 106
Dragic 104
Harkless 104
Iggy 103
Herro 101
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2021.html

Herro not being with the starters are making him miss open 3s? League average is 36.6%
Wide Open 3s, not so much 32.7% (15.6% of his shots)
Open 3 Herro is above league average 37.3% (17.5% of his shots)
Tightly defended 3s, 31.4% (only 8.1% of his shots)
Very tightly defended 3s 33.3% (only 0.5% of his shots)

https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1629639/shots-dash/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

look where he has the biggest positives, yet he's spent the 2nd most time in a lineup with Gabe Vincent and Igoudala.