Patrick Lee Williams Comps?

[DuckIII]

There was one name that popped in my head and I finally remembered enough to track down his career.

Terrence Morris played at Maryland and his sophomore year he was wingman to Steve Francis on a stacked team. He was 6'9", fluid athlete and projected as a top 5 pick. He didn't take the PW route and instead went back for his junior and senior years. Turned out he was too passive and was picked mid 2nd round after his senior year. Played parts of 3 seasons in the league then had a nice, quiet career in Europe for 6-7 years.

If PW went back to school for this past year, I wonder if he would have ended up like Morris. A good athlete, looks the part of a basketball player, but just not mentally cut out to be a top player and compete in the NBA. If PW never comes good, that is my comp.

Another interesting one. I always viewed Morris as a guy who was probably over-valued as a HS prospect and as he aged by the time he got to the league it turned out his physical profile just wasn’t that special anymore. But agree he, like Williams, didn’t appear to have “that dog” in him.

[chefo]

It's not just passiveness. Unfortunately, Pat's timid as well. Or has become timid over the season, I don't recall his first games well.

I think passiveness can be beat out of you by the coaches if they force feed you the ball and just make you go over and over again. Being timid is a trait that is all between the ears (probably because you don't think you belong), and I don't associate it with high level ballers, at any level of competition. Pat's currently afraid to shoot unless wide open, and is afraid to drive and as a result, his drives look clumsy and hesitant. He cuts well, but that's about it...

On D, he's pretty timid as well. When people light you up all season like they have him, you need to take it personally. You don't have to be Artest-level crazy on that side of the ball, but you can't let guys embarrass you on a nightly basis either without dialing up your physicality. If your guy scored 25-30 and you only have 1 foul that game, you're not even trying. You need to have some aggression to go after people.

To me, he's currently a better shooting, less aggressive (on D) Ronnie Brewer. If Ronnie could shoot, he would have been a very useful vet on any team, so there's hope that Pat can become better than a cutting athletic freak, but he needs to dial up his energy on both sides because otherwise he's headed to a Ronnie-like career of being a nice 8th man.

[DuckIII]

Perspective is funny. I think Patrick Williams absolutely sucks cutting off the ball. Other than his mindset I consider it the most obvious negative in his rookie season. He has no feel for it, and when he does it he generates not burst and separation. He trots through it.

[CoreyVillains]

Marvin Williams

Forgot the pod that I said it on during the pre-draft process but this was one of the outcomes for Pat that had me rank him in the back end of the lottery. Marvin Williams had a great NBA career, but he never lived up to the expectations that were bestowed upon him. Too often we like to look at a prospect's immense ceiling instead of measuring what the more likely median outcome will be. It isn't impossible for Pat to reach his ceiling but he has a lot of work to do to get there.

[dougthonus]

For the hell of it, I ran this query:
https://stathead.com/basketball/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&order_by_asc=0&order_by=ws&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2010&ccomp%5B1%5D=lt&cval%5B1%5D=16&cstat%5B1%5D=usg_pct&ccomp%5B2%5D=gt&cval%5B2%5D=1000&cstat%5B2%5D=mp&lg_id=NBA&birth_country_is=Y&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=79&height_max=81&season_start=1&season_end=1&college_id=0&as_comp=gt&as_val=0

Guys who are 6-7 to 6-9 that have usage under 16% as a rookie and played at least 1000 minutes (randomly picked 09/10 season to start from so they were prospects we're more familiar with).

Obviously lots of non athletes on this list that aren't similar at all. Kawhi, Gordon Hayward, and Bam Adebayo are the three guys on the list who went on to be good.

Sorry since the list didn't work for non subscribers:
Kawhi Leonard
Landry Fields
Bam Adebayo
Ed Davis
Isaiah Stewart
Tarik Black
OG Anunoby
Cameron Johnson
Trevor Booker
Maurice Harkless
Kyle Singler
Joe Ingles
Larry Nance
Hollis Thompson
Patrick Williams
Nicolò Melli
Patrick McCaw
Kevin Huerter
Chris Singleton
Dorian Finney-Smith
Deni Avdija
Gordon Hayward
Jaden McDaniels
Jeffery Taylor
Darius Bazley
Justin Jackson
Bismack Biyombo

It is a bummer there isn't a filter by draft range on there to get similarly graded prospects and limit to just lottery ones.

[Ice Man]

I'm not a basketball-reference subscriber, so I can't see the full list, but the players that appear immediately above and below Patrick aren't reassuring. But ... early days, one list.

[GoBlue72391]

A couple rhetorical questions I have are:

- What if PWill was drafted 14th instead of 4th?

- What if GarPax was the one who drafted him 4th instead of AKME?

- What if we had never seen the footage of those offseason pick up games with NBA players? That seems to be the point where the majority of the fanbase went from skeptical of the PWill pick to all in on chugging the Kool-Aid (including myself).

- What if Stacey King wasn't pounding "PWill is a future superstar" into our heads at every opportunity like he was with every other rookie we've had for the past decade plus?

Would we still have these "the next Kawhi"/superstar expectations for him?

[dougthonus]

A couple rhetorical questions I have are:

- What if PWill was drafted 14th instead of 4th?

- What if GarPax was the one who drafted him 4th instead of AKME?

- What if we had never seen the footage of those offseason pick up games with NBA players? That seems to be the point where the majority of the fanbase went from skeptical of the PWill pick to all in on chugging the Kool-Aid (including myself).

- What if Stacey King wasn't pounding "PWill is a future superstar" into our heads at every opportunity like he was with every other rookie we've had for the past decade plus?

Would we still have these "the next Kawhi"/superstar expectations for him?

I never had those expectations anyway, but I think the only one of these that might relevantly change my mind is if he was drafted 14th instead of 4th. By default, I will never think superstar potential in someone outside the top 4. It might happen, but I'd never set my sites there early.

For me personally, I wouldn't worry about the rest of those things at all.

[Ice Man]

A couple rhetorical questions I have are:

- What if PWill was drafted 14th instead of 4th?

- What if GarPax was the one who drafted him 4th instead of AKME?

- What if we had never seen the footage of those offseason pick up games with NBA players? That seems to be the point where the majority of the fanbase went from skeptical of the PWill pick to all in on chugging the Kool-Aid (including myself).

- What if Stacey King wasn't pounding "PWill is a future superstar" into our heads at every opportunity like he was with every other rookie we've had for the past decade plus?

Would we still have these "the next Kawhi"/superstar expectations for him?

If Pat doesn't pick up his game substantially by early next year, he will be THE whipping boy on this board. Such is life as a #4 pick.

[GoBlue72391]

A couple rhetorical questions I have are:

- What if PWill was drafted 14th instead of 4th?

- What if GarPax was the one who drafted him 4th instead of AKME?

- What if we had never seen the footage of those offseason pick up games with NBA players? That seems to be the point where the majority of the fanbase went from skeptical of the PWill pick to all in on chugging the Kool-Aid (including myself).

- What if Stacey King wasn't pounding "PWill is a future superstar" into our heads at every opportunity like he was with every other rookie we've had for the past decade plus?

Would we still have these "the next Kawhi"/superstar expectations for him?

If Pat doesn't pick up his game substantially by early next year, he will be THE whipping boy on this board. Such is life as a #4 pick.

It's pretty much a rite of passage for a young Bulls player. Going from getting a free pass and having every mistake excused to being unfairly blamed for all of the team's problems. We've seen it happen to varying degrees with Lauri, WCJ, Coby, and now it's starting to happen with PWill.

I'm actually surprised at how quickly the tide is turning on him. In the past, people would cling to the "shiny new rookie can do wrong" thing until at least midway through their second season, but I think people are realizing a lot sooner this time around that the overall fanbase's expectations for him were way out of whack from the start. Obviously some people still believe he's a surefire future superstar, and he very well may turn out to be one, but they seem less and less like the majority.

[Leslie Forman]

It's pretty much a rite of passage for a young Bulls player. Going from getting a free pass and having every mistake excused to being unfairly blamed for all of the team's problems. We've seen it happen to varying degrees with Lauri, WCJ, Coby, and now it's starting to happen with PWill.

I mean, if four straight top-7 picks are basically doing nothing for you…yeah they should be getting some of the blame? I don't think anybody here is blaming them for "all" the problems.

Everyone is to blame.

[Dieselbound&Down]

I'm not a basketball-reference subscriber, so I can't see the full list, but the players that appear immediately above and below Patrick aren't reassuring. But ... early days, one list.

You mean basically everyone above him and below are not reassuring except for the 3 Doug pointed out (Hayward, Bam and Kawhi).

Quite a few of his advanced stats are actually very similar rookie Gordon Hayward so maybe it's not all doom and gloom.

Being the 4th pick does roll against him (Hayward 9th, Bam 14th and Kawhi 15th FWIW).

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I'm way less concerned about how Pat's stats comp to other players than I am the absence of upside flashes. He has too much opportunity to have only logged two 20+ point games. Even on a play-by-play basis the wow moments are few and far between.

Look at Poku. Dude is a trainwreck and easily a worse player than Pat right now, but he looks like a complete freak at his high points. I'd rather see that kind of rookie season than one where a guy swings between invisible and serviceable and looks reluctant to impact the game for better or worse.

[TheAlanParsons]

To me the prototypical modern day player who has an abundance of physical gifts but is seriously deficient in aggression level is Andrew Wiggins.

[Rose2Boozer]

To me the prototypical modern day player who has an abundance of physical gifts but is seriously deficient in aggression level is Andrew Wiggins.

Williams has physical gifts physique wise, but he's lacking when it comes to skill set. The league is tough on prospects who can't create offense and shoot. That being said, his biggest disappointment is probably his lack of consistent hustle. We can't hold onto a hustle prospect who doesn't want to out work folk.

[2018C3]

People who say they see Snell, are "comparing apples to bannanas"

Patrick entered the league at 19, and Snell was 22. There is a three plus year spread.

Knowbody is the same guy at either 19 /22/ 25. Patrick still has several years before we can start comparing his current passive mindset to Snell.

A few people are overly confident in their own ability's at a young age, many more develop it later, and some never do. Patrick still has a few years left to figure out who he is going to become.

Tony is still in the league, and has now had a eight year career. If he entered the league at 19. he would probably would have already have been gone.

If you look at there per 36 numbers today, Patrick can be compared at 19 what Snell is doing at 29.

If you compare rookie seasons, "A 19 year old Patrick, to a 22 year old Snell". Patrick beats him in most per 36 minute statistical categories, despite being gifted a starting role early into his career.

Please keep in mind a lot physical and mental development can occur between the ages of 19, 21 and beyond.

[dougthonus]

FYI, query I ran above, I reran and limited to just 18-20 year olds which probably got it to mostly higher draft picks:

Kawhi Leonard
Bam Adebayo
Isaiah Stewart
OG Anunoby
Maurice Harkless
Patrick Williams
Kevin Huerter
Deni Avdija
Gordon Hayward
Jaden McDaniels
Darius Bazley
Bismack Biyombo

Came up with this result. Again, not all guys that fit the same general fit, but I think it's a strong list than above, and the age probably better represents how much room there was for improvement better.

[2018C3]

Patrick was drafted for his upside, not what he is today. If that upside is ever to be achieved, it needs to be both nourished, and developed.

[Leslie Forman]

I'm way less concerned about how Pat's stats comp to other players than I am the absence of upside flashes. He has way too much opportunity to have only logged two 20+ point games. Even on a play-by-play basis the wow moments are few and far between.

Look at Poku. Dude is a trainwreck and easily a worse player than Pat right now, but he looks like a complete freak at his high points. I'd rather see that kind of rookie season than one where a guy swings between invisible and serviceable and looks reluctant to impact the game for better or worse.

Yeah this is the real worry. He hasn't made a single OMGWTFBBQ play even though he has played a ton of minutes.

One thing I have seen is that he's made some really good passes, and off the dribble at that. If we're gonna lower expectations here, I wonder if someone like Joe Ingles is a highly feasible comp.

[Ice Man]

Look at Poku. Dude is a trainwreck and easily a worse player than Pat right now, but he looks like a complete freak at his high points. I'd rather see that kind of rookie season than one where a guy swings between invisible and serviceable and looks reluctant to impact the game for better or worse.

Agreed. More than once I thought that rookie Giannis was the worst player on the floor. But he was an intriguing bad, as is Poku. Whereas PWill never looks terrible to me, but he also rarely does something great. He's just kinda there.