Pick retention tracking thread

[HOTCARL_o]

Say we make the play in and beat the 7th or 8th seed in the second round. Does that seed take our spot in the lottery? It would suck if that team we beat happens to end up getting a top 4 pick. Only to the Bulls that can happen lol

[Am2626]

We'd probably rather give up the pick this year considering 2022 is the double draft, no?

No the one and done rule isn’t going away anytime soon. Probably not until 2025.

[Am2626]

We'd probably rather give up the pick this year considering 2022 is the double draft, no?

Last I read, the 2023 draft would allow High Schools could enter ? (Which we could have no picks in )

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/260271/NBA-May-Not-Allow-High-School-Players-To-Enter-Draft-In-Time-For-2022

Well that's a bummer.

This article suggests that they are far away from changing the one and done rule. I honestly don’t see it changing anytime soon. Also college players are going to be able to make money off their likeness pretty soon.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-wont-eliminate-one-and-done-rule-any-time-soon-with-discussions-stalled-over-one-key-issue-per-report/amp/

[Am2626]

Say we make the play in and beat the 7th or 8th seed in the second round. Does that seed take our spot in the lottery? It would suck if that team we beat happens to end up getting a top 4 pick. Only to the Bulls that can happen lol

It’s honestly so messed up. Don’t know why Adam Silver is trying to make all these radical changes.

[Wingy]

Ah, here's the tracker. I'll use this instead of derailing the "what would you do w/a top 4" thread.

I think we are where we are...around 9, maybe we drop back to 10.

I didn't realize the Raptors actually have a tougher schedule than us. It's basically - play the Western conference playoff teams. I thought maybe we could outtank the Kings, but they saw our Lavine 'rona protocol, and raised us a Fox 'rona protocol.

Pelicans schedule is pretty tough too, but I'm hoping their sheer Zion talent will allow them to stay ahead of us. The only other team within striking distance is Washington, but I think they're just too hot with Daniel "Soul Snatcher" Gafford to look back now. I see them fighting more for the 8th play-in seed.

I don't know how to feel about 9 though. Seems like it's the magic number for grabbing mid-late lottery all stars....7 of the 21 all stars (selected 7-14) the past 18 years have come from the #9 spot (inc. our own Noah). Would it enhance any "kick ourselves" for the Vuc trade factor? Then again, there was that one time at 9...

[FriedRise]

I don't think we need to do anything special to lose games. We're losing 2-4 games for every 1 win - which is just not gonna be enough to make up ground vs the never-lose-again Wizards that we're already behind by 2 games. It's kinda sad because we're actually trying to win, we just can't and don't know how for a number of reasons.

I honestly see us maybe winning 1 more game the rest of the season, and that's vs Detroit:

@Miami (we'll lose tonight)
@Knicks (yeah no chance)
vs Milwaukee (nope, on Friday)
@Atlanta (nope)
vs Philly (lol)
@Charlotte (Hornets revenge game)
vs Boston (Boston revenge game, also on Friday)
@ Detroit (maybe)
vs Brooklyn (only if they sit their stars)
vs Raptors (only if they sit their stars)
@ Brooklyn (only if they sit their stars)
vs Milwaukee (only if they sit their stars)

Teams like the Wizards and Atlanta started out slow because of the new roster they fielded last offseason. That kind of stuff takes time especially when the new players getting added are actual contributors and aren't your bottom-of-bench type. This isn't 2K. They lost a lot of games and were very inconsistent despite the talent they have, and now they're finally clicking and gelling after half a season.

We're going through the same thing now after the trade deadline. If there are 40+ more games left with even a couple days of practice (have they had one of those yet since Vooch got here?), I do think the outcome would've been different.

[Am2626]

I don't think we need to do anything special to lose games. We're losing 2-4 games for every 1 win - which is just not gonna be enough to make up ground vs the never-lose-again Wizards that we're already behind by 2 games. It's kinda sad because we're actually trying to win, we just can't and don't know how for a number of reasons.

I honestly see us maybe winning 1 more game the rest of the season, and that's vs Detroit:

@Miami (we'll lose tonight)
@Knicks (yeah no chance)
vs Milwaukee (nope, on Friday)
@Atlanta (nope)
vs Philly (lol)
@Charlotte (Hornets revenge game)
vs Boston (Boston revenge game, also on Friday)
@ Detroit (maybe)
vs Brooklyn (only if they sit their stars)
vs Raptors (only if they sit their stars)
@ Brooklyn (only if they sit their stars)
vs Milwaukee (only if they sit their stars)

Teams like the Wizards and Atlanta started out slow because of the new roster they fielded last offseason. That kind of stuff takes time especially when the new players getting added are actual contributors and aren't your bottom-of-bench type. This isn't 2K. They lost a lot of games and were very inconsistent despite the talent they have, and now they're finally clicking and gelling after half a season.

We're going through the same thing now after the trade deadline. If there are 40+ more games left with even a couple days of practice (have they had one of those yet since Vooch got here?), I do think the outcome would've been different.

This core won’t come together this season. It will happen next year though. I’m all for seeing the Bulls use the remainder of the season to try and improve their draft position. Getting a top 4 pick is the only positive thing that can come out of this season at this point.

[Wingy]

The teams around the Bulls all got hung w/Ls tonight.

Bulls with the 2nd longest win streak in the East right now. Domination.

[Am2626]

The teams around the Bulls all got hung w/Ls tonight.

Bulls with the 2nd longest win streak in the East right now. Domination.

Sacramento just beat the Lakers so they are in a 3 way tie with the Bulls and Raptors for spots 7,8, and 9. Currently the Bulls have a 26.3% chance at moving to the top 4.

[CobyWhite0]

I think it's officially time to tank the rest of the way. And by "tank", I mean sitting Vuc and Zach for the rest of the season.

3 games back with 9 to play, and with the Wiz having a much easier closing schedule, we're done.

One has to wonder if listing Vuc as "probable" for the Bucks game was just a pre-cursor to having him sit out the rest of the season? The league can't say it's blatant, sit-our-best-players tanking if Vuc has a medical issue.

It's obviously easy to sit Zach, no way anyone says anything about any player taking his time to come back from Covid.

31.8% is the magic number, we'll have that much of a chance if we can finish below SAC and TOR.

[pipfan]

I agree-force feed Coby and Williams as many shots/opportunities as possible and tank out. We are not catching Wash-and that would just be to get the #10 spot
We end up at #7 slot, AGAIN

[Southpaw]

Agreed, it's time to bust out the Coby and Patrick show. Let Coby do his thing and allow Pat more opportunities to gain confidence in himself. I don't really care if ORL gets the 5th pick, I just want the highest chance we can get to a top 4 pick. WAS is already 2 games ahead of us and is on a hot streak.

[DuckIII]

Say we make the play in and beat the 7th or 8th seed in the second round. Does that seed take our spot in the lottery? It would suck if that team we beat happens to end up getting a top 4 pick. Only to the Bulls that can happen lol

It’s honestly so messed up. Don’t know why Adam Silver is trying to make all these radical changes.

These are all anti-tanking moves. I was not a huge fan of the changes at the beginning. I even predicted the new odds would lead to a kind of reverse ranking with borderline playoff teams intentionally losing to ensure reaching the lottery. I think the NBA saw that as an unintended consequence as well so added the play in as disincentive.

So it works against a different type of tanking and also adds a little extra revenue like the NCAA play ins.

It’s hard to argue with the results. The league is more balanced and more teams are trying harder to win.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Gotta start sitting Vuc and Theis for rest.

Detroit is “resting” starters with impunity and OKC closed shop months ago.

At this stage, if we’re not tanking we’re not trying.

[Wingy]

The teams around the Bulls all got hung w/Ls tonight.

Bulls with the 2nd longest win streak in the East right now. Domination.

Sacramento just beat the Lakers so they are in a 3 way tie with the Bulls and Raptors for spots 7,8, and 9. Currently the Bulls have a 26.3% chance at moving to the top 4.

Yes, I thought that was pretty clearly a joke.

“Domination” + Bulls = Error

Plus, intentionally silly to point out 2nd longest win streak while true, it was 1 game.

[Wingy]

Gotta start sitting Vuc and Theis for rest.

Detroit is “resting” starters with impunity and OKC closed shop months ago.

At this stage, if we’re not tanking we’re not trying.

If Zach comes back, it’s the ultimate sign of what I’ve been saying for all these years. It’s the ownership that’s got to go.

I loved the Vuc trade w/o completely thinking it through, and I still support it as just about as good a dart throw as any given what a hole GarPax dug, AND I think we’ll be much better next year. BUT - if you can’t take advantage of the actual circumstances, and try to enhance your chances at talent...just so you can chase a pathetic playin?

That reeks of ownership’s classic short-sightedness, and incompetence.

[MalagaBulls]

I think the schedule is brutal enough so that we can easily go 1-7 over the last 8 games. Realistically the only team we should beat even without Vooch or Zach is Detroit. Having said that we are now 1 game above Toronto in the tank standings. In order to keep our 7th place finish losing those 7 games should be enough. I doubt we catch the Cavs as they are 5 games above us for 6th place and their schedule is a tick easier than ours but I don´t expect them to reel off 8 wins in a row, practially impossible.
So if we finish say at 27-45 or maybe 28-44 we will have at least a 32.0% chance at the top 4 and 7% chance for the top pick. I can live with that.

[Devinpo]

2008 could repeat itself with a miracle..

[HearshotKDS]

Bulls getting lucky in this draft would be huge - there's a decent chance this is the last season in the next few years that the Bulls pick in the top 10 - it would be great to retain this pick and then kick to Orlando picks when the team is first round exiting and not mid lotto like they currently project to.

[DuckIII]

Currently 7th odds with a brutal schedule (unless teams rest players). If we can hang on that would be 32% odds for a top 4 pick.