bstein14 wrote:Invictus88 wrote:bstein14 wrote:There is no need to tank at this point. Let the kids play and have fun out there.
2nd or 3rd worst record is 52% chance of getting a top 4 pick.
4th worst record 48% chance
5th worst record 44% chance
It's a coin flip for the top 4 if we finish 2-7 or 5-4 these last 9 games.
I don't think anyone disputes that the odds are comparable between worst and 5th worst. I'm more concerned with what happens when we don't win that coin flip. We then have to stand in line behind all the other teams that didn't win it with worse records.
The draft goes roughly 5 deep in terms of elite-level talent. We really don't want to end up with #6 if we can avoid it.
Unless you can somehow guarantee that we will be one of the ones whose ping pong ball is chosen then wins and losses absolutely matter still.
I think there are really 4 prizes in the draft that are known. Others could pain out, but for me four guys look like sure fire all-star type guys. Kuminga didn't look that good in the G League and he has upside but is far less of a guarantee. He's more of a James Wiseman type of player who has the potential there but still is a ways away and will need to put the work in to get there.
Even if we finish 2nd(best case), the odds are 20% that we pick 6th so finishing second doesn't really get you that guaranteed top pick either. The odds have changed in a way that tanking as many games as possible down the stretch is way less mesaningful than previously and it really is going to end up being a coin flip either way to get into top 4. If you don't get lucky you're drafting 5, 6 or 7 most likely no matter what.
We'll have to agree to disagree on tiers. The second paragraph isn't a compelling argument that wins and losses don't matter. There's always going to be at least a small possibility of missing out on the top 5 if we don't end up with the worst record. However, increasing your chances up to 80% (if your quoted odds are correct) is definitely worth shooting for.
If we think getting chosen is roughly a coin flip odds-wise then at 2nd worst the chances of both you and the worst team both missing out (and we'd pick 6th) is 25%. At 3rd worst if we miss the coin flip then the odds that at least one of the other 2 teams in front of us also miss (to give us 6th or worse) is 75%. That's a big swing for only a win or two difference.
