Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[nate33]

The Wizards are 22-13 with Beal and Westbrook healthy. They're 13-2 with Beal, Westbrook and Gafford available. I'm really starting to think that the Wizards may indeed go all in on an offseason trade this summer - believing that they really could contend.

The player they need most is a lock-down 3&D guy like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges or Dorian Finney-Smith. Unfortunately, those guys are hard to find, and any team in contention certainly wouldn't trade a guy like that away. Certainly Phoenix and Dallas won't give them up. But maybe Toronto is thinking about a rebuild?

What would it take to pry Anunoby from Toronto? Would Avdija plus our 1st round pick be enough? Or maybe Rui plus our 1st? The trade is hard because of poison pill issues associated with Anunoby's extension.

I really would like to see this starting lineup:

PG Westbrook
SG Beal
SF Anunoby
PF Hachimura
C Gafford

That's a potentially elite team defensively with ideal switchability 1 through 4 and a rim protector behind them. Offensively, they're solid, with the potential to be really good if Hachimura's 3-point shot improves. Neto, Mathews, Bertans and Bryant come off the bench to add offensive firepower.

[wall_glizzy]

The Wizards are 22-13 with Beal and Westbrook healthy. They're 13-2 with Beal, Westbrook and Gafford available. I'm really starting to think that the Wizards may indeed go all in on an offseason trade this summer - believing that they really could contend.

The player they need most is a lock-down 3&D guy like OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges or Dorian Finney-Smith. Unfortunately, those guys are hard to find, and any team in contention certainly wouldn't trade a guy like that away. Certainly Phoenix and Dallas won't give them up. But maybe Toronto is thinking about a rebuild?

What would it take to pry Anunoby from Toronto? Would Avdija plus our 1st round pick be enough? Or maybe Rui plus our 1st? The trade is hard because of poison pill issues associated with Anunoby's extension.

I really would like to see this starting lineup:

PG Westbrook
SG Beal
SF Anunoby
PF Hachimura
C Gafford

That's a potentially elite team defensively with ideal switchability 1 through 4 and a rim protector behind them. Offensively, they're solid, with the potential to be really good if Hachimura's 3-point shot improves. Neto, Mathews, Bertans and Bryant come off the bench to add offensive firepower.

Anunoby's 23 (and, as you mentioned, just extended). If they're going the rebuild route, he's part of it. I don't think the Raptors are gonna read too much into the results the theoretical Van Vleet / Anunoby / Siakam core delivered this season, given that they're in Tampa, injury concerns, didn't have a center that could play starter minutes until just recently, etc.

Looking at free agency... it's pretty barren.

• Derrick Jones Jr. could become a free agent if he declined a player option, but he'd surey only do that if he expected a raise over his 2021-2022 option salary of almost $10 million. I'm also not sure that he spaces the floor reliably enough to be paired with Russ.
  
• Reggie Bullock has had a great year with the Knicks and would fit the role very well, but I have no idea why they'd let him go (i.e. there's no obviously replacement on their current roster, and few options in FA). They've got so much cap room that it's hard to imagine we could put any kind of squeeze on them.
  
• Any kind of multi-year commitment would just be begging for an albatross deal, but... maybe Rudy Gay? He's been... fine this year. Probably better than you'd expect if you haven't watched. Personally though, I'd probably prefer that we continue developing our own wing players than go this route.

(Because of our cap situation, of course, any of the above options would have to be sign-and-trades).

Looking at trades, I really can't find anyone that I'd expect to be on the block - these guys are mostly either still in the honeymoon "prospect" phase or playing on aspiring contenders. If we narrow the list to 3s and 4s (i.e. excluding guys listed as SGs who might have trouble sizing up to be a fully switchable wing defender), there's really nobody. I mean... maybe Sterling Brown slips off the Rockets roster in the offseason shuffle?

I doubt we get involved in the Lonzo Ball sign-and-trade sweepstakes this summer, but I actually like the fit - just hard to figure out what we'd put together to match salaries. Maybe David Griffin covets Bertans as a floor-spacer to run out there with Zion! They did give Redick a try, after all.

[payitforward]

It would be great to have Anunoby, but I can't imagine why the Raptors would move him. I doubt Bullock is going anywhere either.

Given the above, I'm with glizzy on "developing our own wing players." & I think as well that it makes going "all in" via a trade unlikely of success.

Another idea -- question, really: would it make sense to try to move Bertans for a really strong defensive player? A very different kind of player, in other words.

Is that an idea worthy of consideration, & if so are there any trades that come to mind as possible?

[DCZards]

It would be great to have Anunoby, but I can't imagine why the Raptors would move him. I doubt Bullock is going anywhere either.

Given the above, I'm with glizzy on "developing our own wing players." & I think as well that it makes going "all in" via a trade unlikely of success.

Another idea -- question, really: would it make sense to try to move Bertans for a really strong defensive player? A very different kind of player, in other words.

Is that an idea worthy of consideration, & if so are there any trades that come to mind as possible?

I’m not a fan of trading Bertans. The 3 ball is becoming an increasingly important weapon in the NBA and Davis is one of the best. The Zards need to find a couple of more good 3 pt shooters….not trade away the one dependable 3 ball shooter that they currently have.

[wall_glizzy]

It would be great to have Anunoby, but I can't imagine why the Raptors would move him. I doubt Bullock is going anywhere either.

Given the above, I'm with glizzy on "developing our own wing players." & I think as well that it makes going "all in" via a trade unlikely of success.

Another idea -- question, really: would it make sense to try to move Bertans for a really strong defensive player? A very different kind of player, in other words.

Is that an idea worthy of consideration, & if so are there any trades that come to mind as possible?

I’m not a fan of trading Bertans. The 3 ball is becoming an increasingly important weapon in the NBA and Davis is one of the best. The Zards need to find a couple of more good 3 pt shooters….not trade away the one dependable 3 ball shooter that they currently have.

The issue is that we simply can't lose Bertans for a defensive stud - or any player - who is not at least an above-average shooter, which is a shame since the non-shooting defender archetype comes pretty dang cheap. However, the subtraction of Bertans and the addition of another non-shooter, presumably one we're hoping to play near-starter minutes, would be an absolute spacing disaster. This is pretty much the single most ironclad constraint that teams face when constructing a roster around Russ.

In addition to, you know, watching the team we all like win games, the upshot of our late-season resurgence is that it does move us right into the second, third tier 3-and-D role player section of the late lottery - we'll have done very well if we find any kind of immediate impact player there, but it's nice to know there's some precedent - Devin Vassell and Saddiq Bey both went in the 10-20 range last year, Cam Reddish, Cameron Johnson, and Chuma Okeke the year prior. I won't pretend I'm super in tune with this year's draft yet, but it seems like Franz Wagner and Corey Kispert are likely to be right in there.

[payitforward]

To look at this from another angle, what are the roster spots we are either certain or overwhelmingly likely to have to fill?

For starters, we have 7 guaranteed contracts (Brad, Russ, Davis, Thomas, Rui, Deni & Hutch).

We have 4 expiring contracts at the end of this season: Ish Smith, Robin Lopez, Alex Len & Raul Neto. We seem likely to try to retain Neto & unlikely to keep Smith (does that seem right?).

We have options on 4 players: Bonga, Gill, Gafford & Mathews. Clearly we should sign Gafford to a multi-year contract. Mathews too I would say.

Should we pick up Gill's option? How about Bonga?

Suppose we were able to bring back Neto, we picked up Gill's inexpensive option, & we inked Mathews. & extended Gafford of course. With a R1 pick that'd be 12 players. Let's assume we keep Winston on a 2-way contract.

What's the best way to add value with the remaining 3 rosters spots?

Should we re-sign Lopez &/or Len? Which & for how much. Or should we look for a young C prospect with, say, offensive potential? Someone like Nathan Knight for example?

Should we make every effort to buy a high R2 pick? So that we continue to stock our future with young prospects?

Given the seeming paucity of FAs at wing, is there a unicorn out there worth grabbing with one of our exceptions?

[payitforward]

It would be great to have Anunoby, but I can't imagine why the Raptors would move him. I doubt Bullock is going anywhere either.

Given the above, I'm with glizzy on "developing our own wing players." & I think as well that it makes going "all in" via a trade unlikely of success.

Another idea -- question, really: would it make sense to try to move Bertans for a really strong defensive player? A very different kind of player, in other words.

Is that an idea worthy of consideration, & if so are there any trades that come to mind as possible?

I’m not a fan of trading Bertans. The 3 ball is becoming an increasingly important weapon in the NBA and Davis is one of the best. The Zards need to find a couple of more good 3 pt shooters….not trade away the one dependable 3 ball shooter that they currently have.

The issue is that we simply can't lose Bertans for a defensive stud - or any player - who is not at least an above-average shooter, which is a shame since the non-shooting defender archetype comes pretty dang cheap. However, the subtraction of Bertans and the addition of another non-shooter, presumably one we're hoping to play near-starter minutes, would be an absolute spacing disaster. This is pretty much the single most ironclad constraint that teams face when constructing a roster around Russ.

Both of you make perfectly good sense. Obviously, there could be a deal we'd go far -- but the principle seems altogether right. So, no Bertans for a defender...

[pcbothwel]

PIF,
1) Bertans: No, I dont see a clear way to trade him and make an upgrade. Also, I think his skill set is even MORE valuable in the playoffs as the game slows down. A hot Bertans can almost single handedly win you a series. Its like having a hot pitcher in the baseball postseason.

2) Roster: We have 8 guys (No Gill) at 119M. Add in the 15th pick (3.3M) and thats 9 at 122M with a Lux tax of ~136M. I think Winston, Bonga, and Mathews could all be brought back for ~8M, leaving us with 12 guys at 130M and 6M to round out the roster.
- Between Len, Dieng, Lopez, etc. I think we need a 3rd Center and I would only pay the vet min for it.
- I have faith that Winston can assume the Ish role, so we need a pesky guard defender. Neto and McConnell would be my hope, but also think getting Springer at 15 gives us an immediate defender that could turn into a real gem. He also has the size to guard 2's and some 3's.

So 12 guys plus Len/Lopez and Neto/McConnell gives us 14 @ ~134M

With 1 more spot to fill at the Vet min, I would look to someone like Torrey Craig... or best yet, buy a mid/late 2nd and get Prkacin, Herb Jones or JRE.

I think Jones, Hutch, and Bonga can battle it out all year to see which rangy defender can actually become competent offensively.

Russ / Neto / Winston
Beal / Mathews / Springer
Deni / Bonga / Hutch
Rui / Bertans / Jones
Bryant / Gafford / Len

We would actually be right at the Lux tax line with that roster/salary assumptions.

[nate33]

To look at this from another angle, what are the roster spots we are either certain or overwhelmingly likely to have to fill?

For starters, we have 7 guaranteed contracts (Brad, Russ, Davis, Thomas, Rui, Deni & Hutch).

We have 4 expiring contracts at the end of this season: Ish Smith, Robin Lopez, Alex Len & Raul Neto. We seem likely to try to retain Neto & unlikely to keep Smith (does that seem right?).

We have options on 4 players: Bonga, Gill, Gafford & Mathews. Clearly we should sign Gafford to a multi-year contract. Mathews too I would say.

Should we pick up Gill's option? How about Bonga?

Suppose we were able to bring back Neto, we picked up Gill's inexpensive option, & we inked Mathews. & extended Gafford of course. With a R1 pick that'd be 12 players. Let's assume we keep Winston on a 2-way contract.

What's the best way to add value with the remaining 3 rosters spots?

Should we re-sign Lopez &/or Len? Which & for how much. Or should we look for a young C prospect with, say, offensive potential? Someone like Nathan Knight for example?

Should we make every effort to buy a high R2 pick? So that we continue to stock our future with young prospects?

Given the seeming paucity of FAs at wing, is there a unicorn out there worth grabbing with one of our exceptions?

We don't need to extend Gafford. We have him for the next two seasons at $1.8M and $1.9M respectively. We don't even need to discuss extensions until Summer 2022 when we will presumably try to lock him long term at a discount. So Gafford staying on the roster is a given. That means, we have the following rotation under contract at a cost of $118.8M

PG Westbrook
SG Beal
SF Avdija/Hutchison
PF Hachimura/Bertans
C Gafford/Bryant

Also factor a 1st round pick at $3.2M, so that's 9 guys at $122M. The luxtax threshold is $136.6M. If we assume two experienced vet minimum guys and two inexperienced vet minimum guys, that will get us to about $127.2M for 13 guys, leaving us with about $9.4M to spend, just barely less than the full MLE (or up to the full MLE if we choose to exceed the tax).

It's a pretty sure bet that Mathews will be kept, probably for the vet minimum, but we might have to go a little higher to match a competing offer.

It's possible we keep Neto, but he's not really the type of backup PG that fits as a stand-in for Westbrook. If we're going to run a Westbrook-centric offense, with him surrounded by role players who don't do much except catch-and-shoot, we will need a backup PG that is ball-dominant as well. Ish was a good stand-in for Westbrook. Neto is more of a combo guard than a PG. If we retain him, they'll probably want another PG to handle the no-Westbrook minutes, unless they think Winston is that guy.

[9 and 20]

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

[nate33]

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

[gambitx777]

Personally if you really wanna trade deni ok but I'm not trading rui he's too good right now and shows some stuff I would wait a year or two and see about trading him then. Bryant has value because of his contract. Also I'll say again the laser has value and will if we really wanna trade him.

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

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[gesa2]

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

I am not in favor of any young for old trade. We’re not sniffing the conference finals with the kind of vet we could get with Rui or Deni and a late lottery pick, and we’d lose the chance that they develop into something that exceeds that value while still on their rookie contract.

[nate33]

Personally if you really wanna trade deni ok but I'm not trading rui he's too good right now and shows some stuff I would wait a year or two and see about trading him then. Bryant has value because of his contract. Also I'll say again the laser has value and will if we really wanna trade him.

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

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It depends on what we get back in return. I agree that Hachimura has more value to us at the moment, but that's also why he might be the better guy to trade.

[DCZards]

I’d definitely try to resign Neto. The guy just makes winning plays game in and game out.

I’d also resign Len. With Bryant coming off an injury and possibly playing limited minutes at the outset of the season, the Zards will need a backup to Gafford and Len could be a good fit at a good price.

Pcbothwel mentioned Herb Jones (Alabama) as a second round target…if the Zards were able to trade for or purchase a second round pick. I really, really like Jones. I see him becoming the kind of 3&D guy that Dallas has in Finney-Smith. I expect Jones to be an immediate difference maker on the defensive end.

[gambitx777]

I can definitely see your point. I just don't see him bringing back the type of guy I would trade him for with out giving up multiple firsts as well.

Personally if you really wanna trade deni ok but I'm not trading rui he's too good right now and shows some stuff I would wait a year or two and see about trading him then. Bryant has value because of his contract. Also I'll say again the laser has value and will if we really wanna trade him.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

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It depends on what we get back in return. I agree that Hachimura has more value to us at the moment, but that's also why he might be the better guy to trade.

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[wall_glizzy]

I’d definitely try to resign Neto. The guy just makes winning plays game in and game out.

I’d also resign Len. With Bryant coming off an injury and possibly playing limited minutes at the outset of the season, the Zards will need a backup to Gafford and Len could be a good fit at a good price.

Pcbothwel mentioned Herb Jones (Alabama) as a second round target…if the Zards were able to trade for or purchase a second round pick. I really, really like Jones. I see him becoming the kind of 3&D guy that Dallas has in Finney-Smith. I expect Jones to be an immediate difference maker on the defensive end.

I like Jones! I remember checking him out last year. Not a terrible gamble to take as I totally buy the defense as well, but I... didn't see the improvement in shooting I'd have hoped for this year. His FT% tanked from an already subpar mark, and he's shooting something like 25% from three yet again. Per my recent post in some other thread about how we're just not in the position to add defense unless it comes with at least respectable shooting, I think Aaron Henry (MSU) would be my guy if we're talking about a 3-and-D flier in the 40-50 range. (Or better yet, Kessler Edwards, who I mentioned recently over in the draft thread).

[gambitx777]

I'm worries nato will get attention from a contender with some cash

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[pcbothwel]

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

Nate... lets be clear about what we are saying. At 14/15 there is an Extremely likely chance that 1 of Springer, Giddey, or Wagner is there.
Trading Rui or Deni is feasible to me, but trading one of them AND Jared Springer is almost a non starter unless you are buying low on player that wants out and the team really like Rui/Deni.

Sorry, I just dont see it. Hire a new coach, bring back Winston and Mathews, draft Springer, re-evaluate going into the 2022 trade deadline. No need to overthink.

The only real transaction of consequence I would look into would be Otto at the Full MLE. He has regressed and is never healthy, which is the only reason he would sign for ~10M and not 18-20M. Move Hutch for a cheaper bench player to get under the lux tax enough and sign Otto.

Russ / Winston / Neto
Beal / Mathews / Springer
Rui / Deni / Bonga
Otto / Bertans
Gafford / Bryant / Len

We'd be over the tax by about 4-5M, but would have a ton of movable contracts should we flounder (Rui, Otto, Bertans, Bryant, and a Russ/Beal rebuild trade).

[nate33]

I like the idea of trading either Hachimura or Avdija along with a first for another forward. In theory, you should get a good player in return.

Or another option - trade Bryant plus something for that forward and cobble together the C rotation next year again, with Gafford being the main guy.

I don't think Bryant has any trade value. I think Hachimura and Avdija do.

Nate... lets be clear about what we are saying. At 14/15 there is an Extremely likely chance that 1 of Springer, Giddey, or Wagner is there.
Trading Rui or Deni is feasible to me, but trading one of them AND Jared Springer is almost a non starter unless you are buying low on player that wants out and the team really like Rui/Deni.

Sorry, I just dont see it. Hire a new coach, bring back Winston and Mathews, draft Springer, re-evaluate going into the 2022 trade deadline. No need to overthink.

The only real transaction of consequence I would look into would be Otto at the Full MLE. He has regressed and is never healthy, which is the only reason he would sign for ~10M and not 18-20M. Move Hutch for a cheaper bench player to get under the lux tax enough and sign Otto.

Russ / Winston / Neto
Beal / Mathews / Springer
Rui / Deni / Bonga
Otto / Bertans
Gafford / Bryant / Len

We'd be over the tax by about 4-5M, but would have a ton of movable contracts should we flounder (Rui, Otto, Bertans, Bryant, and a Russ/Beal rebuild trade).

I don't disagree with any of this.

I am by no means pushing for a trade. I'm just saying that I could see management making a move if they could acquire a really good 3&D player with a package involving our lotto pick plus Avdija. At that cost, the only guy out there that would interest me would be OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges. I'd also probably trade Avdija alone for Devin Vassell. But beyond that, I think you are right that the next best move would be to draft the BPA and try to mitigate our SF issue with the MLE.