Draft Thread Part 2

[planetmars]

Moody is really young so he has time to develop a handle. But I love really good 3&D players. A Mikail Bridges type of player would be a nice prospect on this team.

If we're not picking in the top 4.. he's my favourite target. And has been for some time.

[Indeed]

Davion is still going to be a combo-guard. Maybe he's a taller more athletic FVV? He might be as productive as Flynn next season (so 1 year ahead in terms of development) but still different as Flynn is a pure PG.

We don't need a dedicate PG to pass the ball and ask the other player to do the hardwork.
We need a playmaker who can create open shot for others without asking others to do out of ability.

If you just need someone who just pass the ball and have the other player to do the hardwork, Bembry would be a better candidate. If you are looking for a 3 level scorers, Davion is a better candidate.

Bembry is a 1 level scorer and tertiary facilitator that plays hard defense.

Bembry is a much better facilitator than Flynn. His passing and vision are better than Flynn already.

[Dalek]

I agree, but why can't we get someone who can defend with some height.

I am telling people, Moses Moody is a strong bet for Toronto. He has decent positional size at 6'6" with that 7'0" wingspan that he uses with arms spread wide and low to the ground. He is always in his defensive stance.

Regarding his offense, I just came across a wing stat on shot quality based on their shotmaking ability and he rates out the top one for a true SG which to me means he knows how to get his shot and he doesn't take a lot of bad ones:

Read on Twitter

I wouldn't be surprised if Moody was the pick. He seems like a safe option to at least be solid, but he won't be a star by any means. Maybe a Khris Middleton in the best case scenario. But I will say, this stat is misleading if it's going to have Cameron Thomas as a guy who takes good shots. His entire game is based on being a flamethrower. He's a volume shooter who shot 40% from the field and 32% from 3. He'll score, but he'll take a lot of shots to do it.

Well, good shots is relative for each player. I think it is looking at the hot zones for each player and measures how much of their offense is created from those spots and shot types. For Moody, from what I have seen he doesn't take a lot of shots out of the flow of the offense. If he can speed up his shot mechanics he could be a deadly scorer because he has that Middleton type of game. I don't get what people don't like about Middleton. The guy is a two-time all-star and a great second option who has a two-way game.

The only mystery box guy that I honestly like a lot but have a hard time buying stock in is Ziaire Williams. He is so long, so fluid with his shot creation and he defends his position well. The problem is had such bad numbers and he has a weak body that it is hard to project him. He may end up one of the superstars of the class, but it is hard to see him do anything for a couple years.

[DreamTeam09]

Moody is really young so he has time to develop a handle. But I love really good 3&D players. A Mikail Bridges type of player would be a nice prospect on this team.

If we're not picking in the top 4.. he's my favourite target. And has been for some time.

I like moody. Although I am craving for some flash from our wing players, getting a knock down shooter like Moody isn't something not to be impressed by. He has the ability to hit n crate pull up jumpers which could separate him from your prototypical 3+D guys. I ain't madd at him.

Zaire Williams just seems to be my wing player due to his size potential, but he's light in weight which could hinder some of his scoring potential

[Dalek]

We don't need a dedicate PG to pass the ball and ask the other player to do the hardwork.
We need a playmaker who can create open shot for others without asking others to do out of ability.

If you just need someone who just pass the ball and have the other player to do the hardwork, Bembry would be a better candidate. If you are looking for a 3 level scorers, Davion is a better candidate.

Bembry is a 1 level scorer and tertiary facilitator that plays hard defense.

Bembry is a much better facilitator than Flynn. His passing and vision are better than Flynn already.

Why do people like Bembry so much? He is a bad player and probably rates out as one of the worst in the NBA (439 ranked in RPM; Rodney Hood is 526 aka the worst player in the NBA). Yes, he can cut well, but I am sure Yuta is better than him at it and is a better overall player. Bembry has a neutral assist to turnover ratio. He is a bad decision maker who throws the ball away at least a couple times within a game. He tries hard and looks cool, but guys like Bembry, Johnson and Hood should be banished from Toronto next season if we want to win games.

Flynn will get better and should be given a chance. Bembry is in year 5 and needs to find other hobbies other than being a fake Pat McCaw.

[Indeed]

Bembry is a 1 level scorer and tertiary facilitator that plays hard defense.

Bembry is a much better facilitator than Flynn. His passing and vision are better than Flynn already.

Why do people like Bembry so much? He is a bad player and probably rates out as one of the worst in the NBA (439 ranked in RPM; Rodney Hood is 526 aka the worst player in the NBA). Yes, he can cut well, but I am sure Yuta is better than him at it and is a better overall player. Bembry has a neutral assist to turnover ratio. He is a bad decision maker who throws the ball away at least a couple times within a game. He tries hard and looks cool, but guys like Bembry, Johnson and Hood should be banished from Toronto next season if we want to win games.

Flynn will get better and should be given a chance. Bembry is in year 5 and needs to find other hobbies other than being a fake Pat McCaw.

You didn't watch last night's game? Bembry just knows how to play. He can play the motion offense at ease. He is comparable to Delon Wright in terms of shot efficiency, vision and passing.

Meanwhile, Watanabe isn't a passer. Bembry are making those kickout pass for teammates to shoot open shots:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=AST&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000794&PlayerID=1627761&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

I posted the above League Pass link, look at the vision of Bembry, simply knows Watanabe is cutting to the top, and he makes a pass that is behind him.

[C_Money]

Pass on any 3 and D players. We have enough of those and need shot creating in the worst way.

[Reeko]

Say the draft order stays as is for the actual picks. I think our pick will be between Keon Johnson and Scottie Barnes:

1) Houston - Cade Cunningham
2) Detroit - Evan Mobley
3) Minnesota - Jonathan Kuminga
4) Orlando - Jalen Green
5) Oklahoma - Jalen Suggs
6) Cleveland - Jalen Johnson
7) Orlando - Scottie Barnes/Keon Johnson
8) Toronto - Scottie Barnes/Keon Johnson

Unless someone reaches in front of us we're probably left with those 2. If that were the case I'd probably take Johnson unless we believe we can turn Barnes into a shooter like OG, but even then he won't be a guy that you can give it to and get out of the way when you need a bucket. Johnson has much more of that potential.

I also want to point out that Jaden Springer was better statistically than Keon Johnson this season, although Keon has more star potential. Personally, if I had to compare their impact in college I'd put Springer more in the class of a Jrue Holiday, whereas Keon falls more in the class of Zach Lavine for me. And if that's the case one guy will impact winning much more, even if he's not as flashy.

In vid that I posted in the thread, the draft guy who Alfred was talking to had both Barnes and Springer ahead of Green and Kuminga. I think as a fan base we're focused on getting a guy who has the potential to become a legit 1st scoring option, the problem with that is that you usually end up picking a guy with more boom or bust potential. That hasn't been the front office's MO, and as much as I like a guy like Keon Johnson, the reality is that Masai and Bobby are probably more interested in guys like Moody and Springer, who don't have Keon's upside but have a much higher floor and have excellent analytics at the college level.

[Blood Orange]

Watch the recovery at 0:56. I had to watch it 3 times as it's just weird. He gets beat but somehow is still in between the basket and defender and blocks the layup coming from UNDER the player and doesn't commit a foul.

Watch on YouTube

Mini Mamba?!?!? Mini because 6'5 instead of prototypical 6'6.

I think he's just slightly behind Jalen Green because of current 3pt shooting and wingspan.

Kobe was a 31% 3pt shooter like MJ but I think a duo with GTJr would be great as GT shoots the 3 around 40%. OG can be PF in a small ball lineup in 5 years when Siakam moves on.

Solid video, and I really found interesting the Latrell Sprewell and Kendall Gill comparisons in the video, although I feel Keon's ceiling might be more a Victor Oladipo with higher BBall IQ and a better low post game. But those are equally as good.

[Dalek]

Bembry is a much better facilitator than Flynn. His passing and vision are better than Flynn already.

Why do people like Bembry so much? He is a bad player and probably rates out as one of the worst in the NBA (439 ranked in RPM; Rodney Hood is 526 aka the worst player in the NBA). Yes, he can cut well, but I am sure Yuta is better than him at it and is a better overall player. Bembry has a neutral assist to turnover ratio. He is a bad decision maker who throws the ball away at least a couple times within a game. He tries hard and looks cool, but guys like Bembry, Johnson and Hood should be banished from Toronto next season if we want to win games.

Flynn will get better and should be given a chance. Bembry is in year 5 and needs to find other hobbies other than being a fake Pat McCaw.

You didn't watch last night's game? Bembry just knows how to play. He can play the motion offense at ease. He is comparable to Delon Wright in terms of shot efficiency, vision and passing.

Meanwhile, Watanabe isn't a passer. Bembry are making those kickout pass for teammates to shoot open shots:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=AST&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000794&PlayerID=1627761&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

I posted the above League Pass link, look at the vision of Bembry, simply knows Watanabe is cutting to the top, and he makes a pass that is behind him.

No question he can make some interesting reads, but even in that highlight Bembry kicked out Yuta with barely a second left to get the shot up. A pass like that is a turnover waiting to happen and he was lucky Yuta could get the shot off cleanly with no time on the clock.

Bembry is almost a non-offensive player who turns down shots and only scores when the ball is spoon-fed to him at the rim. When he has the ball in his hands he can make things happen, but he is largely ignored when he doesn't have the ball (the big reason why he gets those easy scores at the rim). Did you notice that in the 12 games he played since March 1st he has one made three?

Yuta handles the ball up top and does similar ball cuts and can make quick swing passes to shooters. He is a safer option with good size and skills. To me, Bembry is like a Stanley Johnson who you can find a handle of exciting possessions, but the rest of the time they are invisible.

On a related note, guys like Bembry who can make plays (i.e. Giddey, Barnes) also have to show scoring skill. You can't just make a few flashy passes and consider yourself a future star. NBA defenses know player tendencies and when they think past first all the time they just leave guys. Lamelo Ball has a shot and this is what defenses have to respect.

Look at how defenses react to Giddey at times knowing he is going to kick it back because he doesn't plan to attack the rim:

Read on Twitter

Barnes also struggles like this. At around: 10:20 in the video you see him being covered by smaller weak defenders because teams can use their other defenders to cover shooters.

Watch on YouTube

[Blood Orange]

While everyone gets giddy on Giddey, I still feel like the best international in this class is going to be Roko Prkacin.

At 6'9" with a good wingspan people might assume he is a stretch four but he has a good mix of skills that makes me think he is a modern three man and to me will be a better player than Giddey because he is bigger, faster and looks to score while also being able to distribute. Here are a few of his skills he displays:

Dramatic passing between two defenders while leading the break.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Attacking the basket - looking for contact.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

Fullcourt ballhandling and scoring

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

A snippet of an ESPN interview, but they also show a clip of him doing a behind the back crossover and some of his great weak side passing.

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

While Croatia got killed by the stacked US team during an under 17 match, he still got an impressive 13 points, 6 rebounds and 4 blocks (a couple on Evan Mobley).

At age 18, and I think the youngest prospect in the class, he is showing a lot of lottery level skill and the confidence to succeed. He is this year's Poku.

I swear Roko should get taken way ahead of Giddey, in my opinion, as I think he's got greater upside and is far more fundamentally sound but everyone's currently enamoured and preoccupied by taller guards atm, so he's going to get overlooked.

[OAKLEY_2]

Bembry is a 1 level scorer and tertiary facilitator that plays hard defense.

Bembry is a much better facilitator than Flynn. His passing and vision are better than Flynn already.

Why do people like Bembry so much? He is a bad player and probably rates out as one of the worst in the NBA (439 ranked in RPM; Rodney Hood is 526 aka the worst player in the NBA). Yes, he can cut well, but I am sure Yuta is better than him at it and is a better overall player. Bembry has a neutral assist to turnover ratio. He is a bad decision maker who throws the ball away at least a couple times within a game. He tries hard and looks cool, but guys like Bembry, Johnson and Hood should be banished from Toronto next season if we want to win games.

Flynn will get better and should be given a chance. Bembry is in year 5 and needs to find other hobbies other than being a fake Pat McCaw.

Bembry is a hustle player like RHJ. Flynn is a floor general prospect who is 22.

[Blood Orange]

Moody is really young so he has time to develop a handle. But I love really good 3&D players. A Mikail Bridges type of player would be a nice prospect on this team.

If we're not picking in the top 4.. he's my favourite target. And has been for some time.

I like moody. Although I am craving for some flash from our wing players, getting a knock down shooter like Moody isn't something not to be impressed by. He has the ability to hit n crate pull up jumpers which could separate him from your prototypical 3+D guys. I ain't madd at him.

Zaire Williams just seems to be my wing player due to his size potential, but he's light in weight which could hinder some of his scoring potential

When I look at Ziaire Williams I get Patrick Mccaw Vibes, his physical profile is all really nice and everything but I don't see him panning out to be anything special, from lack of effort, motivation and grit. But I hope he proves me wrong.

[Dalek]

Moody is really young so he has time to develop a handle. But I love really good 3&D players. A Mikail Bridges type of player would be a nice prospect on this team.

If we're not picking in the top 4.. he's my favourite target. And has been for some time.

I like moody. Although I am craving for some flash from our wing players, getting a knock down shooter like Moody isn't something not to be impressed by. He has the ability to hit n crate pull up jumpers which could separate him from your prototypical 3+D guys. I ain't madd at him.

Zaire Williams just seems to be my wing player due to his size potential, but he's light in weight which could hinder some of his scoring potential

When I look at Ziaire Williams I get Patrick Mccaw Vibes, his physical profile is all really nice and everything but I don't see him panning out to be anything special, from lack of effort, motivation and grit.

I can see the Patrick McCaw concern because he is tall and doesn't seem to be overly aggressive in his time at Stanford. I just think he is a little like Jaden McDaniels last year in that he has a lot of decent ball skills and great size for a wing. He has the stuff you can't teach but bad production.

It's why I like Moody more, mainly because there are no real question marks other than just getting in more reps to refine his game. And, it is not like Moody is small with that crazy wingspan. I would not be surprised if had Kawhi like measurements.

[Indeed]

Why do people like Bembry so much? He is a bad player and probably rates out as one of the worst in the NBA (439 ranked in RPM; Rodney Hood is 526 aka the worst player in the NBA). Yes, he can cut well, but I am sure Yuta is better than him at it and is a better overall player. Bembry has a neutral assist to turnover ratio. He is a bad decision maker who throws the ball away at least a couple times within a game. He tries hard and looks cool, but guys like Bembry, Johnson and Hood should be banished from Toronto next season if we want to win games.

Flynn will get better and should be given a chance. Bembry is in year 5 and needs to find other hobbies other than being a fake Pat McCaw.

You didn't watch last night's game? Bembry just knows how to play. He can play the motion offense at ease. He is comparable to Delon Wright in terms of shot efficiency, vision and passing.

Meanwhile, Watanabe isn't a passer. Bembry are making those kickout pass for teammates to shoot open shots:
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?ContextMeasure=AST&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0022000794&PlayerID=1627761&RangeType=0&Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612761&flag=1&sct=plot&section=game

I posted the above League Pass link, look at the vision of Bembry, simply knows Watanabe is cutting to the top, and he makes a pass that is behind him.

No question he can make some interesting reads, but even in that highlight Bembry kicked out Yuta with barely a second left to get the shot up. A pass like that is a turnover waiting to happen and he was lucky Yuta could get the shot off cleanly with no time on the clock.

Bembry is almost a non-offensive player who turns down shots and only scores when the ball is spoon-fed to him at the rim. When he has the ball in his hands he can make things happen, but he is largely ignored when he doesn't have the ball (the big reason why he gets those easy scores at the rim). Did you notice that in the 12 games he played since March 1st he has one made three?

Yuta handles the ball up top and does similar ball cuts and can make quick swing passes to shooters. He is a safer option with good size and skills. To me, Bembry is like a Stanley Johnson who you can find a handle of exciting possessions, but the rest of the time they are invisible.

On a related note, guys like Bembry who can make plays (i.e. Giddey, Barnes) also have to show scoring skill. You can't just make a few flashy passes and consider yourself a future star. NBA defenses know player tendencies and when they think past first all the time they just leave guys. Lamelo Ball has a shot and this is what defenses have to respect.

Look at how defenses react to Giddey at times knowing he is going to kick it back because he doesn't plan to attack the rim:

Read on Twitter

Barnes also struggles like this. At around: 10:20 in the video you see him being covered by smaller weak defenders because teams can use their other defenders to cover shooters.

Watch on YouTube

Watanabe is more a shooting guard, he cuts from the corner for a shot, he doesn't penetrate and spot an open man for a shot. He is not the ball handler for holding the ball to setup, and it will prevent him from coming off screen for a shot. Johnson is also score first mentality, as he crossed half court and look for his shot.

If we are straightly talking about the Point position, it would be Bembry. Watanabe would be a good 3&D with capability to play shooting guard.

As for Flynn who is a safe passer (Calederon), but if he cannot attack the rim (get the attention of the big man), he is not making anyone open for that safe pass. Right now the big defender is giving him the mid-range and defend the roller, where Flynn makes the pass to the roller, but the roller still has some challenge at going up to the rim.

[Indeed]

I like moody. Although I am craving for some flash from our wing players, getting a knock down shooter like Moody isn't something not to be impressed by. He has the ability to hit n crate pull up jumpers which could separate him from your prototypical 3+D guys. I ain't madd at him.

Zaire Williams just seems to be my wing player due to his size potential, but he's light in weight which could hinder some of his scoring potential

When I look at Ziaire Williams I get Patrick Mccaw Vibes, his physical profile is all really nice and everything but I don't see him panning out to be anything special, from lack of effort, motivation and grit.

I can see the Patrick McCaw concern because he is tall and doesn't seem to be overly aggressive in his time at Stanford. I just think he is a little like Jaden McDaniels last year in that he has a lot of decent ball skills and great size for a wing. He has the stuff you can't teach but bad production.

It's why I like Moody more, mainly because there are no real question marks other than just getting in more reps to refine his game. And, it is not like Moody is small with that crazy wingspan. I would not be surprised if had Kawhi like measurements.

From this scouting game, I think he is over aggressive, taking too much responsibility and fouled out on the game:

Watch on YouTube

He doesn't have the ability to break down the defense, and I suppose no one else on the team can, which makes him look bad, furthermore, it seems he is playing with a butterfingers big. However, he doesn't seem to be finishing transition play, which is a concern to me.

[Blood Orange]

I like moody. Although I am craving for some flash from our wing players, getting a knock down shooter like Moody isn't something not to be impressed by. He has the ability to hit n crate pull up jumpers which could separate him from your prototypical 3+D guys. I ain't madd at him.

Zaire Williams just seems to be my wing player due to his size potential, but he's light in weight which could hinder some of his scoring potential

When I look at Ziaire Williams I get Patrick Mccaw Vibes, his physical profile is all really nice and everything but I don't see him panning out to be anything special, from lack of effort, motivation and grit.

I can see the Patrick McCaw concern because he is tall and doesn't seem to be overly aggressive in his time at Stanford. I just think he is a little like Jaden McDaniels last year in that he has a lot of decent ball skills and great size for a wing. He has the stuff you can't teach but bad production.

It's why I like Moody more, mainly because there are no real question marks other than just getting in more reps to refine his game. And, it is not like Moody is small with that crazy wingspan. I would not be surprised if had Kawhi like measurements.

Yea, I'm picking Moody 10 times out 10 over Ziaire Williams, right now just because he looks far more complete as a player and seems to be offensively far more reliable. I completely agree with all the other posters who suggested Moody as the safest pick in our range and also see him as a Kris Middleton type player as his ceiling, which wouldn't be a bad pick at all. He'd be a really solid 2nd fiddle and compliment a #1 option to any team. If our FO wants to go the safe route in this year's draft and select Moody, I wouldn't be mad, I'd understand.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I am telling people, Moses Moody is a strong bet for Toronto. He has decent positional size at 6'6" with that 7'0" wingspan that he uses with arms spread wide and low to the ground. He is always in his defensive stance.

Regarding his offense, I just came across a wing stat on shot quality based on their shotmaking ability and he rates out the top one for a true SG which to me means he knows how to get his shot and he doesn't take a lot of bad ones:

Read on Twitter

I wouldn't be surprised if Moody was the pick. He seems like a safe option to at least be solid, but he won't be a star by any means. Maybe a Khris Middleton in the best case scenario. But I will say, this stat is misleading if it's going to have Cameron Thomas as a guy who takes good shots. His entire game is based on being a flamethrower. He's a volume shooter who shot 40% from the field and 32% from 3. He'll score, but he'll take a lot of shots to do it.

Well, good shots is relative for each player. I think it is looking at the hot zones for each player and measures how much of their offense is created from those spots and shot types. For Moody, from what I have seen he doesn't take a lot of shots out of the flow of the offense. If he can speed up his shot mechanics he could be a deadly scorer because he has that Middleton type of game. I don't get what people don't like about Middleton. The guy is a two-time all-star and a great second option who has a two-way game.

The only mystery box guy that I honestly like a lot but have a hard time buying stock in is Ziaire Williams. He is so long, so fluid with his shot creation and he defends his position well. The problem is had such bad numbers and he has a weak body that it is hard to project him. He may end up one of the superstars of the class, but it is hard to see him do anything for a couple years.

There's nothing wrong with Middleton, it's just that if he's your ceiling that's your peak expectation if everything works out, which isn't something we need to be shooting for based on the possibility that he the player could land many levels below a Middleton. And we also need to remember he has a 2-time MVP taking all of the attention away from him allowing him to flourish, much like Siakam had with Kawhi.

Ziaire is exceptionally hard to read. All signs point to him having superstar potential, but they also point to him not being able to reach it and being a bust. He'd definitely have to spend a lot of time in the G-League working on his game.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Say the draft order stays as is for the actual picks. I think our pick will be between Keon Johnson and Scottie Barnes:

1) Houston - Cade Cunningham
2) Detroit - Evan Mobley
3) Minnesota - Jonathan Kuminga
4) Orlando - Jalen Green
5) Oklahoma - Jalen Suggs
6) Cleveland - Jalen Johnson
7) Orlando - Scottie Barnes/Keon Johnson
8) Toronto - Scottie Barnes/Keon Johnson

Unless someone reaches in front of us we're probably left with those 2. If that were the case I'd probably take Johnson unless we believe we can turn Barnes into a shooter like OG, but even then he won't be a guy that you can give it to and get out of the way when you need a bucket. Johnson has much more of that potential.

I also want to point out that Jaden Springer was better statistically than Keon Johnson this season, although Keon has more star potential. Personally, if I had to compare their impact in college I'd put Springer more in the class of a Jrue Holiday, whereas Keon falls more in the class of Zach Lavine for me. And if that's the case one guy will impact winning much more, even if he's not as flashy.

In vid that I posted in the thread, the draft guy who Alfred was talking to had both Barnes and Springer ahead of Green and Kuminga. I think as a fan base we're focused on getting a guy who has the potential to become a legit 1st scoring option, the problem with that is that you usually end up picking a guy with more boom or bust potential. That hasn't been the front office's MO, and as much as I like a guy like Keon Johnson, the reality is that Masai and Bobby are probably more interested in guys like Moody and Springer, who don't have Keon's upside but have a much higher floor and have excellent analytics at the college level.

I'd also throw Dosunmu into that mix. He seems less likely to be a bust than other guys, and would fit into a bigger combo guard role. I wouldn't be mad if we came out with him or Springer, even at 8 or 9.

[Blood Orange]

Boom or bust pick, projected in the 2nd round, I hope we grab this kid with one of our seconds, Isaiah Todd:

Watch on YouTube

He's had a rough upbringing but he's turned it around and looks like he's got a bright future and superstar potential, imo. He's teammates with Jalen Green and Kuminga, and i'm not sure why he's ranked so much further down than they are because I think he's equally as talented despite not having the greatest g league season. He's definitely going to be a project for the next 2-3 years but I think it'd be totally worth it. He moves really fluid for his size and is 6"10, 210 and only 19 years old. I'd pick him over Kuminga and all the other boom or bust picks.