Post#24 » by JN61 » Sat May 8, 2021 6:44 am
I just include people who are like relatively close so it's not as much of a stretch.
#10 is now Shaq with 28.6k points.
Next active players on the list are (points and in brackets their age):
Melo 27.3k (soon 37)
Durant 23.8k (soon 33)
Harden 22k (soon 32)
Westbrook 21.7k (32)
Paul 19.9k (36)
Howard 19k (35)
Curry 18.2k (33)
Derozan 17.6k (soon 32)
Lillard 16.6k (soon 31)
I think it's safe to say Melo cracks it briefly before other players come behind. I left others behind Lillard off because it is hard to know for sure. Heck it's impossible to know even with a guy who is 10k behind.
So we can already for certain drop guys like Derozan, Paul, Howard off the list. Paul and Howard are too old and Derozan has only once broken 2k points in a season and he would need 6+ such seasons to have a chance, 8+ on his current phase and considering players ahead of him will push top 10 further and his regression. He has absolutely no chance.
We have players who are almost surefire players to reach that 28.6k list in Durant and Harden. Only major career ending injuries would change that.
Durant is just 4.8k points off from the top 10. He has played only 30 games this year but scored almost 1k points. So it's safe to say in 3 to 4 years depending on his health he cracks on the list. Harden it is about same time range if we assume he stays healthier.. 3.5 to 4 years if he plays 70 games average with 25 ppg.
Then you have interesting combo of point guards who are probably the most famously tied together from mid 10s to early 20s. Westbrook, Curry and Lillard. Out of this list Curry is oldest but he is also by looks of it potentially the most dominant scorer and could be expected to continue his high 20s scoring averages for years to come. However we have same with Lillard who, while not as high could be assumed to score over 25 every season until/if he gets sick of Blazers and chases championships. Lastly we have Westbrook, who while doesn't show major dip on his raw statistical numbers can be said doesn't focus on the scoring anymore as much and can be expected to score at tops 22 to 24 points per game for rest of his career, most likely lower and dipping bellow 20s.
Taking Lillard first he is almost 12k points away from current top 10 spot. Which is 6.5-8 seasons depending how he ages and who are his teammates and health at which point he is 36-38 years old. However we can almost surely assume guys like Harden and Durant have cracked top 10 meanwhile and have pushed the list far higher. I would give Lillard next to 0 chance to crack top 10. His chances are very low already to reach almost 29k points. I would rate him to end up somewhere around 28 to 29k points.
Next you have Curry who would need 10.4k points to reach Shaq. We can say almost surely that Curry will age worse than Lillard in terms of health. He has 51 games, 69 games 5 games in previous 3 seasons and has missed 8 games this years. Compared to Lillard's 73 games, 80 games, 66 games with 5 misses this year. However Curry has averaged ~27 points in this timeframe.
I would say it is safe to say next year Curry's scoring takes hit by 3 to 4 points with Thompson back and he goes back to 27 to 28 point scorer. If he plays on average 70 games it would take him 6-7 years to reach Shaq. Considering Curry's age, who is oldest of these players he could easily see big hit on his scoring in 3 years. So He might not past Shaq at all.
3 years of 1900 points is still just 5.7k points and he is essentially halfway there as 36 year old. There is no way in hell Curry continues to score 25+ points per game. I would give Curry chance to score 28-30k points in his career.
Lastly you have Westbrook. He needs 6.9k points to surpass Shaq. While not as efficient as other 2 point guards we know he is capable of continuing getting his numbers, but those simple won't be as high as Curry's or Lillard's and that is just a fact. But he also has 2-2.5 year lead on Curry on raw scoring numbers. I think it is safe to assume Westbrook continues to play 75 games yearly for years to come with over 20 points per game averages so over 1.6k points per year is safe bet for remaining of his current contract. If he joins super team after that for a championship is anyone's guess. However with that pace he is 4 years off from passing Shaq. Which out of any of these point guards is honestly the most likely scenario. He is already so close. It would set him to be 36 year old with few years of over 1k scoring numbers ahead of him. I would project Westbrook ending up with over 30k points in his career on almost 100% chance.
So my conclusion is we have, guys like Harden, Durant and Westbrook who seem they will for sure pass Shaq. I would assume all 3 of these players will end up over 30k points. So Dr J would drop to 11th with over 30k points as well. How far the old OKC trio is able to play is anyones guess. Harden seems to have the most Longeativity with Westbrook but Westbrook is not even remotely scoring as high clip as Harden and Durant. I would assume Harden and Durant both end up over 33k points even with some injuries. With Westbrook I would rate him between 30.5 to 32k points depending how long he plays and does he hunt that magical 30k-10k-10k club to be the only player alive with Lebron to achieve that and he has also reasonable chance to beat both CP3 and Jason Kidd on the all time assist boards if he plays for a long time. After that the big question mark is Curry. Does he have anything in tank to play past 38 year old and does he want to play that long. unless Westbrook retires early, or Durant has career ending injury it seems almost impossible for Curry to have that long of career he would pass either of these guys.
So in short I think one would need to end up with over 31k points to crack that top 10 all time after Harden, Durant and Westbrook. Possibly over 31.4k if all 3 passes Wilt. So thread can shift to argue which players are capable of scoring over 31k points to crack that list? I think not many.
Pennebaker wrote:And Bird did it while being a defensive liability. But he also made All-Defensive teams, which was another controversial issue regarding Bird and votes.
It is interesting to see other categories also. CP3 is destroying in assists and steals, but seems that top 10 in rebounds and blocks are protected from this generation of players. Minutes played are also interesting - while LBJ is 7th with 49998, the only other active player I see in top 50 are Melo 41650 (36 years), Iggy 38716 (37 years) and Howard 38410 (35 years). Elite minutes are also extremely hard to crack, and there is no guarantee that injuries or drop in form will not happen to guys like Harden and KD...
