Dutchball97 wrote:Colbinii wrote:Dutchball97 wrote:Is nobody else even considering Posey at this point? I thought he looks easily more impressive than Battier, Mike Miller and Tony Allen.
Posey is a worse defender and shooter than Battier. How does Posey make up the difference?
Maybe over their careers but that definitely isn't true for these specific seasons. Posey scored 13.7 ppg on 48/39/83% splits and .614 TS%. Battier scored 10.1 ppg on 49/39/71% and .574 TS%.
We must go DeeperThe offensive system in 2004 resulted in Battier shooting many mid-range 2's in comparison to Posey (15% of Posey's shot attempts compared to 31% of Battiers). Battier was significantly better in these shots (Around 47% for Battier compared to 32% for Posey).
Line-up Data suggests in 2004 the Grizzles performed better with Battier rather than Posey while in 2005 the Grizzles didn't see a drop in Defensive Rating with Posey only playing 50 games. In fact, the team in 2005 actually improved defensively (11th in Drtg in 2004, 5th in 2005) with Mike Miller taking a larger role (mediocre defensive player at best).
The 2005 Grizzles were also missing Gasol for 26 games and were still a 45-win team with Battier leading the team.
If we look at more line-up Data we see Battier crushing even more-so in 2006 we see Battier with a +7.1 +/- and an on/off of +9.2 (top on team). Even jumping back to 2005 we see a similar story with Battier actually having a +6.8 on-court rating and +10.8 on/off (Both clearly top of team).
I get +/- has noise but we never saw Posey approach these numbers in his career.
Posey's 18.8 PER and 2.3 OBPM also seem to suggest a pretty significantly better overal offensive performance compared to Battier's 14.7 PER and 0.8 OBPM. Given how they both weren't really playmakers (1.5 APG, 8.4 AST% for Posey and 1.7 APG, 8.2 AST% for Battier) Battier would have to be a much more impactful defender than Posey to make up that difference.
I would actually question what offensive impact is Posey having at 18.9 USG%. Battier's lower usage gives room for shot creators and playmakers more-so than Posey.
Now sure Battier was a better defender than Posey but let's not act like Posey was a bad defender by any means. I personally see the offensive difference as bigger than the defensive difference. There is a case for Battier if you value his defense really highly but it's just untrue to claim Battier was a better shooter in 06 than Posey in 04.
I'm not saying Posey was a bad defender but Battier was a world-class defender and a tier (or tiers) ahead or Posey.
Besides that this project also accounts for play-off performance. How much you weigh those play-offs is up to everyone's own interpretation but it should at least be a factor. Neither Posey nor Battier shot particularly well from the field in their respective play-off outings. Posey's TS% of .541 in the 04 post-season isn't much better than Battier's .530 in 06 but in terms of overal offensive impact the gap is even bigger than in the regular season. Posey even sees a small jump up to 19.4 PER and 2.6 OBPM but Battier's stats nosedive in the 06 play-offs. Battier's 6.8 PER and -2.5 OBPM in the 06 post-season can't really be described as anything but terrible.
I'll pass on 4 game samples against a clearly superior team.