Around the NBA, 2020/21 Edition

drsd · Post #1901 » by **drsd** » Sat May 8, 2021 10:44 am

Today:

Bulls's pick related
Washington at Indiana; a Wizards win makes it nearly impossible for the Bulls to make the play-in
Memphis at Toronto; a Raptors win would help push the Bulls back to 7

.....

Magic pick related
Detroit at Philly; one can dream
Houston at Utah; one can dream
OKC at Golden State; one can dream

There is a 17.7%, a 20.4%, and a 16.4% chance for upset wins in those three respective games. That means a single upset can be predicted at a 45.2% chance. Not horrible odds for one upset in those three games. Obviously OKC would be great, and Detroit is also nice.

..

Rainwater · Post #1902 » by **Rainwater** » Sat May 8, 2021 6:46 pm

pepe1991 wrote:Gordon just is't advanced offensive player. Never was, never will be. Watching Bojan scoring 48 and Gordon looking like expesnsive version of Michael Kid Gilchrist reminded me how we shipped Harris to waste 4 years of life for "development" of Gordon.
Said it years ago, will say again, Tobias Harris was always better player

I completely agree with this but I never thought Harris much more than a 3rd, 4th option on a good team. So honestly I don't think he would have accomplished anything more than AG did while with the magic. But I think that says more about the talent the Magic have had since Dwight more than anything else.

Rainwater · Post #1903 » by **Rainwater** » Sat May 8, 2021 6:54 pm

drsd wrote:Today:

Bulls's pick related
Washington at Indiana; a Wizards win makes it nearly impossible for the Bulls to make the play-in
Memphis at Toronto; a Raptors win would help push the Bulls back to 7

.....

Magic pick related
Detroit at Philly; one can dream
Houston at Utah; one can dream
OKC at Golden State; one can dream

There is a 17.7%, a 20.4%, and a 16.4% chance for upset wins in those three respective games. That means a single upset can be predicted at a 45.2% chance. Not horrible odds for one upset in those three games. Obviously OKC would be great, and Detroit is also nice.

..

I really want that pick at 7. I know people want to be safe and want the pick more between 10 and 15 due to risk but I will take my chances. The closer you are to the 1st pick the closer you are to a franchise changing player. No risk no glory.

drsd · Post #1904 » by **drsd** » Sat May 8, 2021 7:36 pm

Rainwater wrote:I really want that pick at 7. I know people want to be safe and want the pick more between 10 and 15 due to risk but I will take my chances. The closer you are to the 1st pick the closer you are to a franchise changing player. No risk no glory.

If Chicago is the 7th worst team, there is a 68.04% chance the pick conveys.

..

Rainwater · Post #1905 » by **Rainwater** » Sat May 8, 2021 7:43 pm

drsd wrote:
Rainwater wrote:I really want that pick at 7. I know people want to be safe and want the pick more between 10 and 15 due to risk but I will take my chances. The closer you are to the 1st pick the closer you are to a franchise changing player. No risk no glory.

If Chicago is the 7th worst team, there is a 68.04% chance the pick conveys.

..

I will still take my chances, lol.

drsd · Post #1906 » by **drsd** » Sun May 9, 2021 7:35 am

Rainwater wrote:
drsd wrote:If Chicago is the 7th worst team, there is a 68.04% chance the pick conveys.

..

I will still take my chances, lol.

Chicago can only finsh as the 7th-10th worst team. It is most likely that the Bulls will finish 7 or 8.

Here is the full list of odds of the pick conveying at each slot (ties modify this).

7th worst : 68.04%
8th worst : 73.70%
9th worst : 79.73%
10th worst : 86.12%

Is it worth sacrificing 5% to go up a slot? Yes. There is far too much value in increases in draft position.

..

drsd · Post #1907 » by **drsd** » Sun May 9, 2021 7:42 am

Whoever locked the Fultz thread, thank you. Odd that a basketball-related topic got hijacked to a medical misinformation thread.

drsd · Post #1908 » by **drsd** » Sun May 9, 2021 8:10 am

Today's key games:
Pelicans at Hornets - NO to win at 53.4%
Mavs at Cavs - Cle to win at 30.3%
B-wolves at Magic - Min win at 56.9%
Bulls at Pistons - Det win at 37.3%
Thunder at Kings - either win is good for Orlando, so OKC at 26.0% and Sac 74.0%

..

MagicFan101 · Post #1909 » by **MagicFan101** » Sun May 9, 2021 1:55 pm

I expect all the tankers to lose but we need to “hold serve” in the race against Minny tonight.

A surprise Cleveland, Detroit or OKC win would be fantastic!

sChOlaRlY_Magi · Post #1910 » by **sChOlaRlY_Magi** » Sun May 9, 2021 5:52 pm

Anyone see why Gordon got a DNP-CD for last night's game?

Rainwater · Post #1911 » by **Rainwater** » Sun May 9, 2021 6:29 pm

drsd wrote:
Rainwater wrote:
drsd wrote:If Chicago is the 7th worst team, there is a 68.04% chance the pick conveys.

..

I will still take my chances, lol.

Chicago can only finsh as the 7th-10th worst team. It is most likely that the Bulls will finish 7 or 8.

Here is the full list of odds of the pick conveying at each slot (ties modify this).

7th worst : 68.04%
8th worst : 73.70%
9th worst : 79.73%
10th worst : 86.12%

Is it worth sacrificing 5% to go up a slot? Yes. There is far too much value in increases in draft position.

..

I'm confused, aren't we in agreement?!?! We both want the pick at 7.

basketballRob · Post #1912 » by **basketballRob** » Sun May 9, 2021 6:40 pm

sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote::o
Anyone see why Gordon got a DNP-CD for last night's game?

He's injured. His quad, I think he's battled injuries all year.

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drsd · Post #1913 » by **drsd** » Sun May 9, 2021 6:41 pm

Rainwater wrote:
drsd wrote:
Rainwater wrote:
I will still take my chances, lol.

Chicago can only finsh as the 7th-10th worst team. It is most likely that the Bulls will finish 7 or 8.

Here is the full list of odds of the pick conveying at each slot (ties modify this).

7th worst : 68.04%
8th worst : 73.70%
9th worst : 79.73%
10th worst : 86.12%

Is it worth sacrificing 5% to go up a slot? Yes. There is far too much value in increases in draft position.

..

I'm confused, aren't we in agreement?!?! We both want the pick at 7.

I was never in agreement nor disagreement. But to answer, yes I want Orlando to get the highest possible picks and if that means deferring till next year, so be it.

Look: Chicago could be as bad next year as this year. There is zero reason to think they will be better. And the lack of a good rookie means that the second FRP (in 2023 or 2024) should thus also be nice.

With my heart, I hate the Vučević trade. With my head, this is a great deal for Orlando. Here's hoping the Bulls lose out and finish at #7.

..

drsd · Post #1914 » by **drsd** » Sun May 9, 2021 7:41 pm

sChOlaRlY_Magi wrote::o
Anyone see why Gordon got a DNP-CD for last night's game?

calf injury

..

orlando_joe · Post #1915 » by **orlando_joe** » Sun May 9, 2021 7:50 pm

drsd wrote:
Rainwater wrote:
drsd wrote:

Chicago can only finsh as the 7th-10th worst team. It is most likely that the Bulls will finish 7 or 8.

Here is the full list of odds of the pick conveying at each slot (ties modify this).

7th worst : 68.04%
8th worst : 73.70%
9th worst : 79.73%
10th worst : 86.12%

Is it worth sacrificing 5% to go up a slot? Yes. There is far too much value in increases in draft position.

..

I'm confused, aren't we in agreement?!?! We both want the pick at 7.

I was never in agreement nor disagreement. But to answer, yes I want Orlando to get the highest possible picks and if that means deferring till next year, so be it.

Look: Chicago could be as bad next year as this year. There is zero reason to think they will be better. And the lack of a good rookie means that the second FRP (in 2023 or 2024) should thus also be nice.

With my heart, I hate the Vučević trade. With my head, this is a great deal for Orlando. Here's hoping the Bulls lose out and finish at #7.

..

not sure how you think bulls will be worse then 7 next yr lottery odds..i sure dont see that...

basketballRob · Post #1916 » by **basketballRob** » Sun May 9, 2021 7:59 pm

orlando_joe wrote:
drsd wrote:
Rainwater wrote:
I'm confused, aren't we in agreement?!?! We both want the pick at 7.

I was never in agreement nor disagreement. But to answer, yes I want Orlando to get the highest possible picks and if that means deferring till next year, so be it.

Look: Chicago could be as bad next year as this year. There is zero reason to think they will be better. And the lack of a good rookie means that the second FRP (in 2023 or 2024) should thus also be nice.

With my heart, I hate the Vučević trade. With my head, this is a great deal for Orlando. Here's hoping the Bulls lose out and finish at #7.

..

not sure how you think bulls will be worse then 7 next yr lottery odds..i sure dont see that...

They could be just as bad. The east probably has like 6 locks. Brooklyn, 76ers, Bucks, Knicks, Hawks, and Heat.

Then you have Indiana, with a healthy Warren and Turner. Charlotte with a healthy Hayward and 20 year old Ball. The Raptors with like 60m in cap room. Wizards with Westbrook, Beal, and a healthy Bryant. Boston will probably be healthier in a normal season.

All those other teams have 1st round picks too

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orlando_joe · Post #1917 » by **orlando_joe** » Sun May 9, 2021 8:07 pm

basketballRob wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:
drsd wrote:
I was never in agreement nor disagreement. But to answer, yes I want Orlando to get the highest possible picks and if that means deferring till next year, so be it.

Look: Chicago could be as bad next year as this year. There is zero reason to think they will be better. And the lack of a good rookie means that the second FRP (in 2023 or 2024) should thus also be nice.

With my heart, I hate the Vučević trade. With my head, this is a great deal for Orlando. Here's hoping the Bulls lose out and finish at #7.

..

not sure how you think bulls will be worse then 7 next yr lottery odds..i sure dont see that...
They could be just as bad. The east probably has like 6 locks. Brooklyn, 76ers, Bucks, Knicks, Hawks, and Heat.

Then you have Indiana, with a healthy Warren and Turner. Charlotte with a healthy Hayward and 20 year old Ball. The Raptors with like 60m in cap room. Wizards with Westbrook, Beal, and a healthy Bryant. Boston will probably be healthier in a normal season.

All those other teams have 1st round picks too

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yea but if bulls add a top 4 pick and have vuc and lavine all yr and there guys playing together for a yr..i dont see bottom 7 team..plus anything they trade for unseen

basketballRob · Post #1918 » by **basketballRob** » Sun May 9, 2021 8:24 pm

orlando_joe wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:not sure how you think bulls will be worse then 7 next yr lottery odds..i sure dont see that...
They could be just as bad. The east probably has like 6 locks. Brooklyn, 76ers, Bucks, Knicks, Hawks, and Heat.

Then you have Indiana, with a healthy Warren and Turner. Charlotte with a healthy Hayward and 20 year old Ball. The Raptors with like 60m in cap room. Wizards with Westbrook, Beal, and a healthy Bryant. Boston will probably be healthier in a normal season.

All those other teams have 1st round picks too

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

yea but if bulls add a top 4 pick and have vuc and lavine all yr and there guys playing together for a yr..i dont see bottom 7 team..plus anything they trade for unseen

They have like a 25% chance for a top 4 pick, plus those guys have never won before. You could make a case that many teams in the east should be better after they've had more time playing together. Ball/Hayward, Westbrook/Beal, Trent/VanVleet.

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orlando_joe · Post #1919 » by **orlando_joe** » Sun May 9, 2021 8:32 pm

basketballRob wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:
basketballRob wrote:They could be just as bad. The east probably has like 6 locks. Brooklyn, 76ers, Bucks, Knicks, Hawks, and Heat.

Then you have Indiana, with a healthy Warren and Turner. Charlotte with a healthy Hayward and 20 year old Ball. The Raptors with like 60m in cap room. Wizards with Westbrook, Beal, and a healthy Bryant. Boston will probably be healthier in a normal season.

All those other teams have 1st round picks too

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

yea but if bulls add a top 4 pick and have vuc and lavine all yr and there guys playing together for a yr..i dont see bottom 7 team..plus anything they trade for unseen
They have like a 25% chance for a top 4 pick, plus those guys have never won before.

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i get that but point was if magic dont get pick this yr..well then that means bulls get top 4 pick right? vuc got to playoffs..i just think 7-10 this yr is best magic could ask for...dont see next yr in same range

basketballRob · Post #1920 » by **basketballRob** » Sun May 9, 2021 8:37 pm

orlando_joe wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
orlando_joe wrote:yea but if bulls add a top 4 pick and have vuc and lavine all yr and there guys playing together for a yr..i dont see bottom 7 team..plus anything they trade for unseen
They have like a 25% chance for a top 4 pick, plus those guys have never won before.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

i get that but point was if magic dont get pick this yr..well then that means bulls get top 4 pick right? vuc got to playoffs..i just think 7-10 this yr is best magic could ask for...dont see next yr in same range

You're right, this could be our best chance to add a really good player. Someone else posted that next years Bulls pick would be in the 20's and I doubt that's a given.

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