2020-21 RealGM All-Season POY & Other Awards Discussion Thread

[Doctor MJ]

I'd say it's that time of the year.

Every year since we did the Retro Player of the Year project in 2010, we've had votes for the All-Season NBA POY of the year. You can think of it as essentially being an MVP that factors in the playoffs too, but I'll say that my inspiration here is the Ballon d'Or from FIFA/soccer world. (I even tried to call this award the "Ballon d'Orange", but it never caught on, ah well.)

Key to understanding: This is an award based on accomplishment for the past year, rather than who would have done what had things been different.

So, when we know that a player was hurt, demoralized, poorly utilized, etc, that's just tough. This isn't an "under optimal conditions, who would have been the best", it's about what actually happened.

With that said, it must be acknowledged that allowances are made for how a voter compares players across teams and roles. So long as you context your reasoning in what a player demonstrated on the court this year, you're good.

Voting for our POY award will follow the same format as the MVP, a Top 5 vote, where players get points attached to them in a 10-7-5-3-1 format. We emulate the MVP because we want something that can top into the framework basketball fans already have in their mind due to familiarity with the MVP. Additionally, since bkref gives us lists of MVP Shares leaders, we can have a meaningful leaderboard for POY shares.

RealGM All-Season Awards Shares through 2020

In addition, beginning in '14-15, we began doing votes for OPOY, DPOY, ROY, MIP, 6MOY, COY & EOY. For each of these we do a Top 3 in a 5-3-1 format. These awards are optional to vote on, but the rule for all is that you either give a complete ballot for an award, or your vote that award doesn't count.

RealGM All-Season Award Winners

(I'll note that OPOY & DPOY Shares are also compiled in the first spreadsheet.)

About a week after the '20-21 playoffs end I'll open up a Voting thread, and those who have been added to the voting panel will post their votes. About a week later, I'll tally the votes up and we'll have our new batch of award winners.

How do you get a vote?

Participate in this thread, PM me to tell me you're interested in voting.

(Note: I do tend to cut long-time voters some slack when they aren't actively participated in discussion, but the discussion really is the heart of this whole thing, so please join back in if you can.)

[eminence]

Oho, LeBron could move into the all-time lead with this one if things go well in the playoffs.

Thoughts on POY headed into the end of the RS, by team, top 7 in the East and top 8 in the West, but hey if Russ wants to lead the Wiz to a title, more power to him.

Celtics - Bleh, they've felt so close for so long and this is a clear step backwards, disappointing. Tatum still has played pretty well, probably a top ~15 guy this season? Would need to lead multiple upsets to get onto the ballot.

Heat - Pretty similar to above, coming off a great great season and oof. Tuning up for the playoffs at least it seems. Basically Butler in place of Tatum.

Hawks - Trae has really vaulted up the ranks this season and it's great to see. League is in talented young hands. Capela has been a great pairing with him. Trae would need a huge playoffs to push up the list.

Knicks - Where did that come from? Great work Thibs and Randle, Thibs is my COY so far and Randle's been great, though not quite great enough for a POY vote I think.

Finally the real cream of the conference in the top 3:

Bucks - Giannis, what to say, he's put together another huge huge RS. A mediocre playoff run could still have him on the ballot, and he's a clear contender to win it all.

Nets - A tricky one - loaded with talent, but it's spent a lot of time injured, Harden's the favorite from the squad to make my ballot, but it'd probably take a championship to even get on the ballot (at least a Finals run).

Sixers - Another kind of tricky one, Embiid has all the big stats, but has missed a bunch of time. More impressive than Harden though, if he leads the Sixers on a deep run he's likely on my ballot (say competitive ECF loss or better?)

Warriors - Whew, Steph has been on fire of late. Likely one of the more stable guys at this point, doesn't have much left to prove this season. I'd guess he gets a low spot on my ballot barring something unforeseen.

Lakers - Ouch, coming off such a great playoff run, pretty much nothing has gone according to plan. LeBron needs to come back healthy and lead a deep run to make a ballot. Not what I would've predicted even just a month ago.

Blazers - Dame's been in a weird in-between, always good enough to earn a decent HM, never quite cracking my ballot, will need some upsets to take the jump this season.

Mavs - Hope they figure out something better than the KP thing going forward, I want to see a Luka team really compete. Similar to Steph in that there's a certain stability to his candidacy, probably a half step behind for me, could see him just sneaking on or as a top HM.

Nuggets - Man is that Murray injury a bummer, prior to that I was beginning to get excited for them as a top contender, with it... It seems unlikely. Jokic may not need to do anything at all to get a ballot spot from me, though I'd be somewhat surprised if he found a way to win the whole thing.

Clippers - Been a bit more under the radar this season and I think they may prefer that. Still quietly the 3 seed and Kawhi's played well despite missing a few games. He's my sleeper pick to win the whole thing. George is worth an HM, but it's tough to see him passing Kawhi and enough other guys if they do make a deep run.

Suns - Very very nice leap forward by CP3 and the young guns. I have zero expectations for them in the playoffs, so anything else is gravy at this point. I'm not super high on CP3 so far this season (~10th maybe?), but if the Suns just keep winning it'd be a hell of a crowning achievement for him.

Jazz - Great great RS from the squad, let's get everybody healthy and make a run at it. Rudy has the widest range of outcomes for me, if they get upset early - say by Dallas in round 2, or god forbid LA/GS in the 1st round and he looks mediocre he may not make my ballot. But if the Jazz stay solid all the way through (not necessarily to a title, but solid against a contender) then he could very well earn my #1 vote.

[Colbinii]

My current standings:

POY
Tier 0: Nikola Jokic - It's his to lose. He has been the best offensive player (Curry could be 1B and an equal) in the NBA and best player in the NBA.

Tier 1: Steph Curry, Giannis Antetpkounmpo, Rudy Gobert

All 3 of these guys are unique and completely different.

Curry is the best shooter ever and best scorer we have ever seen. He is unfortunately playing for a franchise which hasn't done him any favors over the past 2 seasons of putting players who are of NBA caliber around him.

Giannis is putting together is 3rd straight "top 25-30" all-time regular season. Terrific on both ends and his shot is coming around. I would not be surprised if this season ends up as a "GOAT" caliber season capped off with a Finals MVP for Giannis.

Gobert simply is the anchor of the best team in the NBA--on both ends. He is the anchor on both ends of the floor.

[BIGJ1ER]

Hopefully will be my first year participating, after reading almost every page of every retro thread throughout my time off during covid!

Some thoughts on the year: strange year since a lot of the usual top candidates have missed a lot of time even though they've been fantastic when they have played. Lebron, Harden, Embiid, Durant all fall into this.

Going to be weird not having AD near any ballot, unless he somehow tops last year's playoff run and goes at least to the finals for sample size sake, I can't see him even being an HM after a wildly underwhelming year. Wondering how he bounces back next year.

The playoff race this year seems as wide open as its ever been - the Lakers stumbling around, the Nets not having any consistent playtime for us to gauge their viable baseline and ceiling (plus potential chemistry question marks?), the Jazz and Suns looking dangerous during the RS but question marks around their playoff viability, the usual questions around the Bucks and Giannis (even though I think these are overblown and they definitely could have won it all in 2019), The clippers and sixers looking dangerous but having their own questions to answer.

If I had to pick a winner at the moment, I'd likely lean towards the Bucks or Nets to be honest, I'm worried about the Laker's health , the Clippers reliance on jump shooting and the Sixers lackluster half-court offense but I wouldn't be shocked by anyone.

Onto my initial ballot thoughts - without deep diving and thinking about it too much:

Tier S - Jokic: Seems to be his to lose at the moment, the murray injury almost ends Denver's title dreams, but I don't think that should impact Jokic's candidacy to the POY throne, he's simply been the player giving you the best title odds this year.

Tier A - Curry, Giannis: Curry seems poised to make an early playoff exit, which is a shame, but I'm very impressed by his work this year. Giannis is a candidate to win it all for me, I feel like his play has slightly flown under the radar.

Tier A Minus - Gobert, Embiid and Kawhi: Feels slightly wrong to have Embiid and Kawhi lumped with Gobert, due to games missed and Gobert's impressive play this year, and I may need to rethink this, but I think when they've played they've been at a similar level. Once the dust has settled, playtime may become a bigger factor once I give it some more thought.

I think the playoffs will have a massive impact on player rankings this year, and there's so many guys with things to prove and ground to make up, and as such I'm very excited for the playoffs to begin.

[eminence]

I'm intrigued that folks have Jokic a tier up on everybody in terms of odds of winning the award. He's certainly in contention but I think it'll be a tough sell for me if any of the Jazz/Clippers/Bucks win the title this season as their lead dogs haven't been so far off Jokic during the season (technically Curry/Warriors too, but that'd require a carry job to end all carry jobs).

[BIGJ1ER]

I'm intrigued that folks have Jokic a tier up on everybody in terms of odds of winning the award. He's certainly in contention but I think it'll be a tough sell for me if any of the Jazz/Clippers/Bucks win the title this season as their lead dogs haven't been so far off Jokic during the season (technically Curry/Warriors too, but that'd require a carry job to end all carry jobs).

I think Jokic has built a solid lead throughout the RS, and he's been a great playoff performer throughout his career so far, but I do tend to agree that he's likely to not build upon his POY resume greatly barring an absolutely epic PO performance or a favourable matchup that allows him to advance. The murray injury is a real shame.

Guess it also depends on how good the guys who go deep in the playoffs play, and wether that's good enough to dethrone jokic's advantage.

[Colbinii]

I'm intrigued that folks have Jokic a tier up on everybody in terms of odds of winning the award. He's certainly in contention but I think it'll be a tough sell for me if any of the Jazz/Clippers/Bucks win the title this season as their lead dogs haven't been so far off Jokic during the season (technically Curry/Warriors too, but that'd require a carry job to end all carry jobs).

I didn't make my post based on projection. My tier(s) were strictly based on what have you done so far.

If you want me to speculate...

Jazz lose in round 1 or 2 and get exposed due to the drop pick and roll coverage they utilize. Gobert drops out of the top 5.

Nuggets win in round 1 and end up losing in round 2. Jokic is the best players in both series as well as being by far the best regular season player. Is this worthy of POY? Similar to 2009/2010 LeBron.

I agree, any of Jazz/Clippers/Bucks and even 76ers/Suns best players could win POY.

I don't think LeBron can win it at this point due to this missed time but if he is by far the best player in the post-season then he was also good enough and played enough to get his team into the post-season, I guess there is a chance?

As much as a fan of LeBron James I am, I'm more intrigued than ever by the openness this season. I'm looking forward to watching 3-5 games from each series this year.

[Texas Chuck]

not much intrigue at the moment for me with many of these awards.

POY -- Jokic to lose. Embiid and Giannis feel like his only real competition. Paul leading the Suns to a championship a dark horse I guess.
6MOY -- Ingles, I realize Clarkson probably wins the actual award, but I don't really understand why. Was interesting to me that Lowe thought Dallas should have the next 2 candidates after the Clippers having the top 2 candidates last year. Feels like top reserves shouldn't be this congregated, right?
DPOY-- Gobert has it on lock
MIP--feels like Randle is the guy
COY will be Snyder over Monty because he doesn't have a Chris Paul situation plus I think he just has a better reputation.

[Joey Wheeler]

Bar playoff injuries, like last year, I think by the end of the playoffs it'll be very clear again that Lebron and AD are the top 2 players in basketball. No point making projections based on RS, ultimately it's what happens in the playoffs that determines who the best players are.

[Texas Chuck]

Bar playoff injuries, like last year, I think by the end of the playoffs it'll be very clear again that Lebron and AD are the top 2 players in basketball. No point making projections based on RS, ultimately it's what happens in the playoffs that determines who the best players are.

I disagree about the RS not mattering and I strongly disagree with AD as the 2nd best player even if the Lakers cruise to the title. AD only got to "flip the switch" in the playoffs last year because Lebron carried him in the RS. We saw in New Orleans over and over again the limitations of AD.

[TheGOATRises007]

Bar playoff injuries, like last year, I think by the end of the playoffs it'll be very clear again that Lebron and AD are the top 2 players in basketball. No point making projections based on RS, ultimately it's what happens in the playoffs that determines who the best players are.

I disagree about the RS not mattering and I strongly disagree with AD as the 2nd best player even if the Lakers cruise to the title. AD only got to "flip the switch" in the playoffs last year because Lebron carried him in the RS. We saw in New Orleans over and over again the limitations of AD.

What?

https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2020.html

Fairly similar in advanced stats. AD has a higher PER, TS, ORTG, DRTG, DPM and WS. Lebron beats him in OBPM, BPM, and VORP.

Lebron has an advantage in the RAPTOR rating, a fairly clear gap in RAPTOR on-off, while AD beats him in RAPTOR BOX SCORE.

Lebron played 5 more games, so the durability argument doesn't carry much weight.

What's the argument that AD got carried in the RS last season?

I'm not saying/arguing that I think AD was better than Lebron in the RS either. I just don't see how he was carried by Lebron.

[Texas Chuck]

The Lakers were 10 points better with Lebron on the court than they were with him off.
They were 3 points better with AD off the court than they were with him on.

I don't see any way of looking at those numbers--particularly with an understanding that AD played more than 2/3 of his minutes with Lebron meaning the team was just tragic with AD on but Lebron off the court-- and concluding that AD was anywhere near as valuable in the RS as Lebron was.

AD is a fantastic complementary player. Probably the very best one in the entire league. But he's not close to Lebron as a player and absolutely wasn't last regular season regardless of what counting stats he put up.

[Dutchball97]

Post-season stats are usually distorted due to low amount of games and not a lot of variation in opponents so having a regular season sample size to see whether a strong play-off performance was a fluky peaking at the right time moment or whether it is just a continuation of similar level of play in the regular season.

For projections I like to take into account the current regular season and recent play-offs. Guys like Embiid, Dame and PG13 aren't far off at the moment but since neither of them have ever shown to step up their game in the post-seasons it doesn't make much sense for me to expect them to do differently this year. I'm always willing to have my mind changed by strong performances of course but I'd be surprised to say the least if any of these three made my top 5. With LeBron and Kawhi it's the other way around. Even though I have neither in my top 5 atm, I expect both of them to make it due to strong post-season pedigrees.

[Outside]

As we're nearing the end of the regular season, here's where I have the POY race.

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Gobert
Curry
Doncic
Embiid
Kawhi

In most seasons, it's common for me to use the PS as the decider, with the guy leading his team to the title having the inside track. This year, the gap between Jokic and the field is big, so it may take a total flameout by Jokic and the Nuggets in the PS to knock him from the top spot. With all their injuries (not just Murray, six guys are on their injury report) the Nuggets are really vulnerable, and a first round exit isn't out of the question. Even if that happens, if Jokic performs well (as he usually does), that will likely be enough, though an otherworldly PS performance by Giannis or Gobert leading their team to the title would make me rethink that.

For Embiid and Kawhi, the missed games drop them to the back of the pack for me, but they could leapfrog everyone other than Jokic with strong performances by them and their teams in the PS.

The wild cards are the Nets, Lakers, and Suns. For the Nets and Lakers, if they regain their health and get to the finals, then somebody from their team is going to enter the picture, even as high as second on my POY list if they win the title, but the deficit of missed games in the RS is too big of a hurdle to pass Jokic.

For the Suns, it's not missed games; they just don't have anyone who merits being in that top group based on the RS. I can appreciate narrative, and I recognize that they have the second best record in the league, which means somebody there is doing something excellent, but Chris Paul and Booker just don't have the stats or metrics to justify being on the list. Again, like with the Nets and Lakers, if the Suns do well in the PS, then Paul or Booker are likely jumping into the mix, even potentially as high as second if they win the title, but I cannot see a scenario where they pass Jokic.

I'm using BBall Reference's season leaders page and LEBRON rankings (primarily LEBRON and wins added).

I don't use the Englemann/ESPN RPM because he doesn't publish his formula and his system consistently results in a disturbing number of outliers. Other RAPM lists I've looked at have similar issues, but I'm open to using another metric that someone likes for single-season assessment.

[LukaTheGOAT]

As we're nearing the end of the regular season, here's where I have the POY race.

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Gobert
Curry
Doncic
Embiid
Kawhi

In most seasons, it's common for me to use the PS as the decider, with the guy leading his team to the title having the inside track. This year, the gap between Jokic and the field is big, so it may take a total flameout by Jokic and the Nuggets in the PS to knock him from the top spot. With all their injuries (not just Murray, six guys are on their injury report) the Nuggets are really vulnerable, and a first round exit isn't out of the question. Even if that happens, if Jokic performs well (as he usually does), that will likely be enough, though an otherworldly PS performance by Giannis or Gobert leading their team to the title would make me rethink that.

For Embiid and Kawhi, the missed games drop them to the back of the pack for me, but they could leapfrog everyone other than Jokic with strong performances by them and their teams in the PS.

The wild cards are the Nets, Lakers, and Suns. For the Nets and Lakers, if they regain their health and get to the finals, then somebody from their team is going to enter the picture, even as high as second on my POY list if they win the title, but the deficit of missed games in the RS is too big of a hurdle to pass Jokic.

For the Suns, it's not missed games; they just don't have anyone who merits being in that top group based on the RS. I can appreciate narrative, and I recognize that they have the second best record in the league, which means somebody there is doing something excellent, but Chris Paul and Booker just don't have the stats or metrics to justify being on the list. Again, like with the Nets and Lakers, if the Suns do well in the PS, then Paul or Booker are likely jumping into the mix, even potentially as high as second if they win the title, but I cannot see a scenario where they pass Jokic.

I'm using BBall Reference's season leaders page and LEBRON rankings (primarily LEBRON and wins added).

I don't use the Englemann/ESPN RPM because he doesn't publish his formula and his system consistently results in a disturbing number of outliers. Other RAPM lists I've looked at have similar issues, but I'm open to using another metric that someone likes for single-season assessment.

Englemann is no longer with ESPN. ESPN has redone RPM since he has left.

[Colbinii]

As we're nearing the end of the regular season, here's where I have the POY race.

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Gobert
Curry
Doncic
Embiid
Kawhi

In most seasons, it's common for me to use the PS as the decider, with the guy leading his team to the title having the inside track. This year, the gap between Jokic and the field is big, so it may take a total flameout by Jokic and the Nuggets in the PS to knock him from the top spot. With all their injuries (not just Murray, six guys are on their injury report) the Nuggets are really vulnerable, and a first round exit isn't out of the question. Even if that happens, if Jokic performs well (as he usually does), that will likely be enough, though an otherworldly PS performance by Giannis or Gobert leading their team to the title would make me rethink that.

For Embiid and Kawhi, the missed games drop them to the back of the pack for me, but they could leapfrog everyone other than Jokic with strong performances by them and their teams in the PS.

The wild cards are the Nets, Lakers, and Suns. For the Nets and Lakers, if they regain their health and get to the finals, then somebody from their team is going to enter the picture, even as high as second on my POY list if they win the title, but the deficit of missed games in the RS is too big of a hurdle to pass Jokic.

For the Suns, it's not missed games; they just don't have anyone who merits being in that top group based on the RS. I can appreciate narrative, and I recognize that they have the second best record in the league, which means somebody there is doing something excellent, but Chris Paul and Booker just don't have the stats or metrics to justify being on the list. Again, like with the Nets and Lakers, if the Suns do well in the PS, then Paul or Booker are likely jumping into the mix, even potentially as high as second if they win the title, but I cannot see a scenario where they pass Jokic.

I'm using BBall Reference's season leaders page and LEBRON rankings (primarily LEBRON and wins added).

I don't use the Englemann/ESPN RPM because he doesn't publish his formula and his system consistently results in a disturbing number of outliers. Other RAPM lists I've looked at have similar issues, but I'm open to using another metric that someone likes for single-season assessment.

Englemann is no longer with ESPN. ESPN has redone RPM since he has left.

And it is now a trash All-in-one.

[Outside]

As we're nearing the end of the regular season, here's where I have the POY race.

Jokic
(gap)
Giannis
Gobert
Curry
Doncic
Embiid
Kawhi

In most seasons, it's common for me to use the PS as the decider, with the guy leading his team to the title having the inside track. This year, the gap between Jokic and the field is big, so it may take a total flameout by Jokic and the Nuggets in the PS to knock him from the top spot. With all their injuries (not just Murray, six guys are on their injury report) the Nuggets are really vulnerable, and a first round exit isn't out of the question. Even if that happens, if Jokic performs well (as he usually does), that will likely be enough, though an otherworldly PS performance by Giannis or Gobert leading their team to the title would make me rethink that.

For Embiid and Kawhi, the missed games drop them to the back of the pack for me, but they could leapfrog everyone other than Jokic with strong performances by them and their teams in the PS.

The wild cards are the Nets, Lakers, and Suns. For the Nets and Lakers, if they regain their health and get to the finals, then somebody from their team is going to enter the picture, even as high as second on my POY list if they win the title, but the deficit of missed games in the RS is too big of a hurdle to pass Jokic.

For the Suns, it's not missed games; they just don't have anyone who merits being in that top group based on the RS. I can appreciate narrative, and I recognize that they have the second best record in the league, which means somebody there is doing something excellent, but Chris Paul and Booker just don't have the stats or metrics to justify being on the list. Again, like with the Nets and Lakers, if the Suns do well in the PS, then Paul or Booker are likely jumping into the mix, even potentially as high as second if they win the title, but I cannot see a scenario where they pass Jokic.

I'm using BBall Reference's season leaders page and LEBRON rankings (primarily LEBRON and wins added).

I don't use the Englemann/ESPN RPM because he doesn't publish his formula and his system consistently results in a disturbing number of outliers. Other RAPM lists I've looked at have similar issues, but I'm open to using another metric that someone likes for single-season assessment.

Englemann is no longer with ESPN. ESPN has redone RPM since he has left.

Thank you. I didn't know that.

Engelmann's Twitter bio lists him as "Basketball enthusiast. Creator of ESPN's Real Plus Minus. Senior Analyst at Dallas Mavericks". So he works for the Mavericks now.

Even if he isn't involved with RPM now, my complaints about it still stand -- that they don't publish the formula (unless they've done that since he left) and it has a significant number of apparent outliers, such as role player Joe Harris ranking above anchors like Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, and Zion Williamson, and role player Duncan Robinson and anchor Luka Doncic having almost identical numbers. The typical response to the second criticism is that it assesses how effective a player is in their role, but LEBRON identifies each player's role and adjusts for role in their output, while RPM doesn't identify players by role so you can't sort by role. Other RAPM systems I've looked at have a similar outlier problem as RPM.

[eminence]

The goal of a decent xRAPM is not to put together a definitive list of the best players in the game, it's to put together a stable list of the players producing the highest +/- numbers on their teams/around the league. It's like complaining about BPG because it has Myles Turner over LeBron.

[Outside]

The goal of a decent xRAPM is not to put together a definitive list of the best players in the game, it's to put together a stable list of the players producing the highest +/- numbers on their teams/around the league. It's like complaining about BPG because it has Myles Turner over LeBron.

I get that. It's just a tool, and it's not the only one I use in my assessment. But the folks creating LEBRON have figured out how to adjust for role so that you don't have to filter that out yourself. By including role as a field in their data, you can even sort on it if you want to compare players with the same assigned role. It's not perfect, but (to me) it's a more helpful tool for assessing something like POY.

If you want to go further, RAPM was intended as a multi-year assessment tool, not a single-season one, but that doesn't stop any of us from using it for single-season assessment. I have more confidence in an assessment that includes an RAPM metric than one that relies on box score stats alone.

Many of you are more well-versed in advanced metrics than I am, and if anyone has other impact metrics besides LEBRON that they recommend, I'm willing to consider adding that to my toolbox. I used to incorporate PIPM, but the source I used for that stopped producing data.

[Colbinii]

The goal of a decent xRAPM is not to put together a definitive list of the best players in the game, it's to put together a stable list of the players producing the highest +/- numbers on their teams/around the league. It's like complaining about BPG because it has Myles Turner over LeBron.

I get that. It's just a tool, and it's not the only one I use in my assessment. But the folks creating LEBRON have figured out how to adjust for role so that you don't have to filter that out yourself. By including role as a field in their data, you can even sort on it if you want to compare players with the same assigned role. It's not perfect, but (to me) it's a more helpful tool for assessing something like POY.

If you want to go further, RAPM was intended as a multi-year assessment tool, not a single-season one, but that doesn't stop any of us from using it for single-season assessment. I have more confidence in an assessment that includes an RAPM metric than one that relies on box score stats alone.

Many of you are more well-versed in advanced metrics than I am, and if anyone has other impact metrics besides LEBRON that they recommend, I'm willing to consider adding that to my toolbox. I used to incorporate PIPM, but the source I used for that stopped producing data.

EPM is good.