RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #95 (Nikola Jokic)

[Dutchball97]

I'm still a bit surprised it took 20+ spots since Giannis for Jokic to make the list. I'd understand it if both guys were facing a lot of opposition due to short careers but I kept finding the reasons people gave for having Giannis on their ballots around the 70s, while having Jokic not even in the conversation for their top 100 very flimsy.

I'm happy he finally made the list though and hopefully he won't be so controversial in the 2023 top 100 with a few more years under his belt.

[Odinn21]

I still suspect/worry Jokic wouldn’t be here if he weren’t having the season he’s currently having [which is “inadmissible”], but anyway….I’ll have the next up in a moment.

I have to agree with this. I feel like the current level Jokic he's playing at, and also the hype around him, made some people overlook the fact that this project does not include 2020-21 season in the evaluations.

[HeartBreakKid]

Thats a nice thought, but no if we included this season Jokic would have gotten in way before 95.

[trex_8063]

I'm still a bit surprised it took 20+ spots since Giannis for Jokic to make the list. I'd understand it if both guys were facing a lot of opposition due to short careers but I kept finding the reasons people gave for having Giannis on their ballots around the 70s, while having Jokic not even in the conversation for their top 100 very flimsy.

I'm happy he finally made the list though and hopefully he won't be so controversial in the 2023 top 100 with a few more years under his belt.

I think even by 2021 it will be much more controversial to NOT have him in the top 100.

Thats a nice thought, but no if we included this season Jokic would have gotten in way before 95.

It’s not so much that I worry people have actively included ‘21 in their evaluations, but rather that his current awesomeness has induced some to give him what I’ll call “excessive benefit of the doubt” as far as his placement within a given range.

For instance, people who immediately at the end of the ‘20 season were thinking Jokic could reasonably be placed somewhere between the late-70s to the mid-90s [or between 85-110....or whatever] have consistently placed him [firmly] at the extreme high end of those initial ranges......as result of the small subconscious nudge provided by his current season.

[Owly]

I'm still a bit surprised it took 20+ spots since Giannis for Jokic to make the list. I'd understand it if both guys were facing a lot of opposition due to short careers but I kept finding the reasons people gave for having Giannis on their ballots around the 70s, while having Jokic not even in the conversation for their top 100 very flimsy.

I'm happy he finally made the list though and hopefully he won't be so controversial in the 2023 top 100 with a few more years under his belt.

I think even by 2021 it will be much more controversial to NOT have him in the top 100.

Thats a nice thought, but no if we included this season Jokic would have gotten in way before 95.

It’s not so much that I worry people have actively included ‘21 in their evaluations, but rather that his current awesomeness has induced some to give him what I’ll call “excessive benefit of the doubt” as far as his placement within a given range.

For instance, people who immediately at the end of the ‘20 season were thinking Jokic could reasonably be placed somewhere between the late-70s to the mid-90s [or between 85-110....or whatever] have consistently placed him [firmly] at the extreme high end of those initial ranges......as result of the small subconscious nudge provided by his current season.

Apart from internal consistency issues regarding active players considered at different points (which would be inevitable if this isn't being done professionally, in a shorter timescale) ... then isn't that something that happens with everyone (and so if it is an issue, not a Jokic-specific one)? That our view of each season is shaped reformed by later ones (and indeed vice-versa that our prior conceptions of a player's capacity, trajectory etc influence how we perceive the present [e.g. flukey]).

On the specifics. I love Jokic, I think he's been awesome since day 1. I don't know where I'd rank him.

[prolific passer]

Jokic about to pass Wilt in 20ppg 10rpg 7apg seasons. I would put him ahead of the likes of Grant, Hornacek, and Porter.

[Clyde Frazier]

I mean for me it simply comes down to longevity. Jokic is probably my second favorite player in the league right now and I didn't have him close to the top 100. I don't think a player whose career isn't close to complete should be favored over those who did it for longer, even if they peaked lower. Sustaining a high level of play isn't easy and that's what I tend to favor. That said, we all have our own criteria and that's fine. It's one of the reasons I really enjoy this project.

As for Giannis specifically, I didn't vote him in but he does have a decent edge on Jokic to me. To me, if you keep it up you'll get your due. Be it here or in someone else's top 100 list in the future. Our peaks projects have done a great job of highlighting the very best players with short/incomplete careers too.

[Doctor MJ]

Thats a nice thought, but no if we included this season Jokic would have gotten in way before 95.

It’s not so much that I worry people have actively included ‘21 in their evaluations, but rather that his current awesomeness has induced some to give him what I’ll call “excessive benefit of the doubt” as far as his placement within a given range.

For instance, people who immediately at the end of the ‘20 season were thinking Jokic could reasonably be placed somewhere between the late-70s to the mid-90s [or between 85-110....or whatever] have consistently placed him [firmly] at the extreme high end of those initial ranges......as result of the small subconscious nudge provided by his current season.

This comes close to hitting the nail on the head.

I'd say there's really no preventing '20-21 from occupying real estate in your head in this project, and so your options are:

1. Make your personal list ahead of time so it can't be influenced by the next season.

2. Keep the influence sub-conscious. Let it bias you, but delude yourself into thinking it isn't.

3. Tack against the wind. Remain highly skeptical of all current players having noteworthy seasons this season.

4. Consciously let the current season re-imagine what came before while making sure you aren't actually counting the current year on its own.

5. Secretly factor in '20-21 directly.

I didn't do (1) and I don't think (2) or (5) are appropriate. I think you could say that I tend to have both (3) & (4) in mind.

On Jokic specifically:

One of the things is that we saw Jokic put up bigger numbers in the playoffs the past two seasons compared with the RS. While I patted Jokic on the back for this, particularly last year, a part of me held Jokic back because we hadn't seen it in the RS. While that might seem strange given that the playoffs are the gold standard, the truth of the matter is that I saw Jokic and the Nuggets has pretty fragile as a team prior to the playoffs. And while their two comebacks helped change that, you're still talking about a club that could have lost in the 1st round.

I didn't want to go overboard. I didn't want the fact that I'm enamored with Jokic's utterly unique game lead me to overrate him.

What Jokic has done this year, while I'll acknowledge is better than anything he's done before, has made me feel much more confident in giving Jokic the benefit of the doubt.

So on POY last year I ranked Butler ahead of Jokic, and that could lead you to logically ask "Did you think peak Butler at that point was better than peak Jokic?" and logically expect the answer to be "Yes". In truth the answer was "No", but I felt more comfortable giving Butler the benefit of the doubt at the time out of fear of overrating the more exciting player.

As we converse now however, while my opinion of Butler hasn't dropped, my confidence in pre-'20-21 Jokic has risen, and that makes a difference.

For anyone who wants to skeptically say, "Okay, whatever you want to tell yourself Doc", I get it, but it is important for me at least to make these distinctions.

As I say all of this, I'd have been fine with Jokic not making the Top 100 for the same reason I'll understand if Hawkins & Walton don't make it. Those more concerned with longevity than me have a valid perspective.