Official 2020-21 Season Thread #1: To Beard or not To Beard?

[Kobblehead]

Celtics have a more balanced team, a supposedly better coach, and (when healthy) can approximate the star power in a relative sense. There exists a universe where the Celtics knock off the Nets in 7.

[stormi]

So 538, and whatever metrics they use to pump our their tables have now declared us title frontrunners. (aka 538 has forever lost credibility in my eyes)

[sixers4real]

I had the Clippers as a title favourites as day 1, and I to me they still are

[76ciology]

So 538, and whatever metrics they use to pump our their tables have now declared us title frontrunners. (aka 538 has forever lost credibility in my eyes)

We’ve seen this movie before

[Sixerscan]

I know this probably isn’t going to be the priority but I’d really like to see them keep ahead of the Clippers. In 2001 the Sixers rested everyone game 82 and lost to a terrible Bulls team and it cost them home court in the finals (not that it would have mattered that year but still).

With the play-in this year they have an extra few days off between the regular season and the first playoff game. If guys are hurt they shouldn’t play but getting in front of whatever western conference teams they can would be big.

[Negrodamus]

I know this probably isn’t going to be the priority but I’d really like to see them keep ahead of the Clippers. In 2001 the Sixers rested everyone game 82 and lost to a terrible Bulls team and it cost them home court in the finals (not that it would have mattered that year but still).

With the play-in this year they have an extra few days off between the regular season and the first playoff game. If guys are hurt they shouldn’t play but getting in front of whatever western conference teams they can would be big.

Thank you Knicks!

[76thBearCub]

We seem to be solidly in place as first in the East and 3rd seed overall behind the Jazz and Suns.


Seems about like powerball odds somebody would have said that before the season started.

[Arsenal]

We seem to be solidly in place as first in the East and 3rd seed overall behind the Jazz and Suns.


Seems about like powerball odds somebody would have said that before the season started.

Yeah pretty much locked into this. Home Court in the East, and against anyone except Utah or Phoenix in the Finals.

I'll take it.

We also have a slim chance to pass Phoenix. If they lose tonight at LAL we are only 1 back in the loss column.

Unfortunately, they swept us so we'd still need to make up 2 more games to pass them.

[zaz102]

We seem to be solidly in place as first in the East and 3rd seed overall behind the Jazz and Suns.


Seems about like powerball odds somebody would have said that before the season started.

I didn't even think that would happen for most of the season.... Nets trading for Harden, Embiid getting injured, Sixers having a tougher post-all-star schedule than the Nets, losing 4 in a row and falling behind Brooklyn.

Really hope they can put the the exclamation point on a great season.

[cool93]

Rooting hard for Hawks and Knicks the rest of the season. If they are 4-5 seed, we'll have pretty comfortable path to ECF while Bucks and Nets would need to play Celtics|Heat and than each other.

Seeing Heat in 2nd round would be a lot less comfortable.

[Murray_17]

So 538, and whatever metrics they use to pump our their tables have now declared us title frontrunners. (aka 538 has forever lost credibility in my eyes)

It's because the algorithm probably consider the possible odds for every combinaton of playoffs match up.

As we're likely locked into the first seed we have not only avoided a Bucks/Nets match up on the second round but have a big chance of avoiding both Boston and Miami in the first round, who have the bigger odds to fall into 6 and 7 on some order .

Our path is also easier than whatever bloodbath happens on the west.

The three first teams have similar odds anyway, basically a 2 on 10 chance. In fact, if you see their projections, our full strength rating is the lowest between the top 4 odds entering the playoffs and the lowest among the top 3 odds entering the finals.

[76ciology]

It’s because you can just heavily rely on numbers. You can even manipulate your opponent if he relies to heavy on it. There should be a balance. And there’s ludic fallacy (nassim taleb).

And the numbers their crunching are regular season numbers. And if you’ve been watching our games you’ll see how much noise there is to our games right now.

[76ciology]

Fwiw, I do think Clippers is a favorable match-up for us than the Lakers. Like we have Tobi-Ben to match their wings while they wont have any answers for Biid. But if I were the clips, I’d use the nick nurse playbook and play with a Zubac-Ibaka-Kawhi frontcourt then choke embiid when he tries to bully ball his way in the paint.

Jazz also because they have a ridiculously weak wing depth, which i do think would be the reason why they won’t make it to the finals given they have to face either or both Clipps wings or LeBron.

I always find a CP3 lead team to be more a paper tiger playoffs team. Booker is good but I do think he’s overrated.

[Sixerscan]

The 538 model is basically a fun data project for them I don’t think they’re saying blindly use it to gamble or anything. Obviously you need to watch games to get a bigger picture but that’s not their expertise so they just give the data they have, you’re supposed to fill in the other stuff.

That said I do think those conference odds are a good visualization of the advantage of the number one seed. If we were 3rd that number would be significantly lower I’d imagine.

[youngcrev]

So 538, and whatever metrics they use to pump our their tables have now declared us title frontrunners. (aka 538 has forever lost credibility in my eyes)

It's because the algorithm probably consider the possible odds for every combinaton of playoffs match up.

As we're likely locked into the first seed we have not only avoided a Bucks/Nets match up on the second round but have a big chance of avoiding both Boston and Miami in the first round, who have the bigger odds to fall into 6 and 7 on some order .

Our path is also easier than whatever bloodbath happens on the west.

The three first teams have similar odds anyway, basically a 2 on 10 chance. In fact, if you see their projections, our full strength rating is the lowest between the top 4 odds entering the playoffs and the lowest among the top 3 odds entering the finals.

Yeah. It'll be interesting to see if the Sixers actually drop behind other teams the further we get into the playoffs due to this factor, even as they win. IE, if the same formula gave them the worst odds once we reach the conference finals.

[Wilfried]

We seem to be solidly in place as first in the East and 3rd seed overall behind the Jazz and Suns.


Seems about like powerball odds somebody would have said that before the season started.

Yeah pretty much locked into this. Home Court in the East, and against anyone except Utah or Phoenix in the Finals.

I'll take it.

We also have a slim chance to pass Phoenix. If they lose tonight at LAL we are only 1 back in the loss column.

Unfortunately, they swept us so we'd still need to make up 2 more games to pass them.

They play Portland, GSW and SAS twice
All those teams have something to play for.
Phoenix lost 2 out of their last 3 (Atlanta and NY) so ...

It's still possible but nevertheless, I'm really not afraid of Phoenix (nor Utah)

[Sixerscan]

So 538, and whatever metrics they use to pump our their tables have now declared us title frontrunners. (aka 538 has forever lost credibility in my eyes)

It's because the algorithm probably consider the possible odds for every combinaton of playoffs match up.

As we're likely locked into the first seed we have not only avoided a Bucks/Nets match up on the second round but have a big chance of avoiding both Boston and Miami in the first round, who have the bigger odds to fall into 6 and 7 on some order .

Our path is also easier than whatever bloodbath happens on the west.

The three first teams have similar odds anyway, basically a 2 on 10 chance. In fact, if you see their projections, our full strength rating is the lowest between the top 4 odds entering the playoffs and the lowest among the top 3 odds entering the finals.

Yeah. It'll be interesting to see if the Sixers actually drop behind other teams the further we get into the playoffs due to this factor, even as they win. IE, if the same formula gave them the worst odds once we reach the conference finals.

Presumably if that full strength rating thing means anything they would still be favored by that model over the Bucks or Nets with home court?

Nets of course are already the Vegas favorite and I imagine would be fairly heavy favorites (especially for a team without home court) if they actually got to the ECF with their guys healthy. Bucks might depend on how the teams look in the first two rounds, could see them getting a lot of support if they convincingly beat a healthy Brooklyn team and the Sixers barely survive the Knicks or something.

[Negrodamus]

Read on Twitter

Nice.

[Ferry Avenue]

Big announcement yesterday that the arena can now be at 50% capacity for the playoffs. This team could get the #1 seed in the East and then have home-court advantage start being a factor in the playoffs, when it wasn't one all season.

[sixers4real]

Big announcement yesterday that the arena can now be at 50% capacity for the playoffs. This team could get the #1 seed in the East and then have home-court advantage start being a factor in the playoffs, when it wasn't one all season.

https://www.google.ru/amp/s/www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/phillies-sixers-can-host-games-100-percent-fan-capacity-starting-june-11%3famp

We can have full capacity if we reach ECF?