Official Trade Thread -- Part XL

[payitforward]

If Shepp stays I expect an "all in" move this offseason with Westbrook & Beal ready to build off this new found chemistry. ... I suspect Domantas Sabonis to be a strong target. Also guys like Harrison Barnes or Jerami Grant could also be targets.

Sounds like you not only "expect an 'all in' move" but actually favor the idea -- do I have that right?

How do you imagine we would be able to acquire Domantas Sabonis? I can't think of a way -- unless Indy was interested in taking back Bertans, which seems unlikely to say the least. Otherwise, we'd have $124m going to 4 guys. Barnes & Grant are equally expensive, only they aren't particularly good players.

A move of this kind would be a colossally foolish mistake. Beyond even Ted Leonsis, I believe.

If Shepp stays & Beal stays I expect it. I don't necessarily support or hate the idea. Depends on who it is.

Indy is headed towards an obvious rebuild. I assume Sabonis will be moved. Do we have enough? I dunno. Would the Wizards be willing to move Deni or Rui, Bryant & a 1st to get him? Would it be enough? That's why we debate stuff like this on message boards.

Fair enough.

Honestly, it's very hard to get significantly better via a trade. & the more significant the trade the truer that is. It's one thing to steal a guy like Gafford, a R2 pick who is being undervalued, but in a larger trade GMs will want value for value. They won't trade you a solution in return for a bunch of your problems.

As to "if Shepp stays," how do you fire a guy who changed 14 out of 15 guys in less than two years, & you've just gone 14-4 with his team?

You think if we do bring on Masai Ujiri, he's going to fire that guy? Good God -- he'd have to be nuts!

[payitforward]

I think this team is 4 pieces away. ...

..."away" from what? Contending for a title?...

Competing/Contending for a title. I'm sorta a one track mind in that way.......

Oh me too -- it's the only thing worth going for. & it's also the only way you transform your organization long term.

...I didn't say it was realistic in terms of resolving all items in one offseason but you certainly try.

In likelihood you focus on two or three, depend on internal development and patchwork the rest.

To succeed in competing for a title, you have to consistently acquire better players than the other team. That's obvious.

Unless you are the Los Angeles Lakers (or have the Lakers financial assets), or 3 superstars decide they want to play together for your team in Miami, the only way to do that is to draft extremely well.

There is no other way. That's true despite the fact that people claim otherwise.

If you want to do it via trade, you need guys to trade who are good enough to bring you the players you need. To get those guys, you have to "draft extremely well."

If you want to do it by signing superstar FAs, see above under "Los Angeles Lakers."

[payitforward]

...I assume Sabonis will be moved.... Would the Wizards be willing to move Deni or Rui, Bryant & a 1st to get him?....

Suppose we were. & that Indy did that deal.

Ok, now we have a total of 6 players with guaranteed contracts. Obviously, we pick up the options on Gafford & Mathews. Maybe Gill too at $1.5m??

Let's assume that it was Deni who was traded. Here's what we've got:

PG Russell Westbrook
SG Bradley Beal, Garrison Mathews
SF Chandler Hutchison
PF Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, Anthony Gill
C Domantas Sabonis, Daniel Gafford

Alternatively, let me remind you, we have 8 of the above, plus we have Thomas Bryant, Deni Avdija &, say, Davion Mitchell.

Obviously, we know you aren't very high on Bryant -- but you do remember what he brought to the team in 18-19 & last year, right?

Obviously as well, Deni Avdija didn't have a good rookie year -- but, you do recall that he was extremely highly rated, has a ton of success in his resume already, & did have his moments, especially early in the year. He's 20 years old; we aren't going to pretend he has no potential, are we?

Finally, it's also obvious that we can't be sure Davion Mitchell will turn into an outstanding NBA player. But... we do know that he (or whoever else it might be that we would have gotten w/ that R1 pick you were willing to let go) has a whole lot of potential, right?

But... we don't have those guys. We have 9 guys including Sabonis. We are @ $9m under the tax line.

Feel free to build out the team in a way that looks like it has moved us closer to contending for a title. Respectfully, dat, I am skeptical that you can. & as you say, "this is why we debate these things on a message board!"

[nate33]

I have no interest whatsoever in Sabonis, certainly not at what is asking price would be. I think of him as just a slightly better version of Thomas Bryant. He can post numbers, but can you really win with a center who can't protect the rim?

Now that we have Gafford, I really don't see center as the position to focus on when it comes to upgrading. We have much bigger weaknesses at SF and backup guard. You shouldn't invest much in the center position unless it's for a legit game changer like Embiid, Davis, Gobert, Jokic or Bam.

[Dat2U]

...I assume Sabonis will be moved.... Would the Wizards be willing to move Deni or Rui, Bryant & a 1st to get him?....

Suppose we were. & that Indy did that deal.

Ok, now we have a total of 6 players with guaranteed contracts. Obviously, we pick up the options on Gafford & Mathews. Maybe Gill too at $1.5m??

Let's assume that it was Deni who was traded. Here's what we've got:

PG Russell Westbrook
SG Bradley Beal, Garrison Mathews
SF Chandler Hutchison
PF Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, Anthony Gill
C Domantas Sabonis, Daniel Gafford

Alternatively, let me remind you, we have 8 of the above, plus we have Thomas Bryant, Deni Avdija &, say, Davion Mitchell.

Obviously, we know you aren't very high on Bryant -- but you do remember what he brought to the team in 18-19 & last year, right?

Obviously as well, Deni Avdija didn't have a good rookie year -- but, you do recall that he was extremely highly rated, has a ton of success in his resume already, & did have his moments, especially early in the year. He's 20 years old; we aren't going to pretend he has no potential, are we?

Finally, it's also obvious that we can't be sure Davion Mitchell will turn into an outstanding NBA player. But... we do know that he (or whoever else it might be that we would have gotten w/ that R1 pick you were willing to let go) has a whole lot of potential, right?

But... we don't have those guys. We have 9 guys including Sabonis. We are @ $9m under the tax line.

Feel free to build out the team in a way that looks like it has moved us closer to contending for a title. Respectfully, dat, I am skeptical that you can. & as you say, "this is why we debate these things on a message board!"

Dont confuse what I predict will happen with what I want to happen. I simply see Sabonis as a probable target. Not my target but likely a target this offseason by the front office. I told you my "all in" move, Christian Wood.

I like Deni. Don't love it him. Preferred Haliburton but that's done. I think he can be a solid part of the future and will improve but seems more like a "linker" type of wing. A glue guy. I doubt they'd move him but if I'm looking to upgrade he's probably the most valuable piece to other teams.

[Ruzious]

I'm not in favor of going after Sabonis. It'll cost a ton to get him, and he's not a player you win because of. He's a very good 2 point shooter and a good enough athlete to defend the pnr, but he's not a 3 point threat that spreads the floor, and he's far from a rim protector. Actually, a prospect that Doc likes - Petrusev - might be a poor man's Sabonis - with a 3 point shot - and he could be available in mid to late 1st round - though I don't think he's quite the athlete that Sabonis is.

Of course, right after I say that - Sabonis absolutely torches the Wiz in the first half. Somebody must have told him.

[doclinkin]

I have no interest whatsoever in Sabonis, certainly not at what is asking price would be. I think of him as just a slightly better version of Thomas Bryant. He can post numbers, but can you really win with a center who can't protect the rim?

Now that we have Gafford, I really don't see center as the position to focus on when it comes to upgrading. We have much bigger weaknesses at SF and backup guard.

I'd agree except that we have been succeeding with a 3 headed monster at C. Granted two are cheap back-ups. And Sabonis is alright but not all that, I'd agree. But if in the draft there was an upgrade for Bryant on the board, well, that would be a pretty good player. I'd like a big with range who can play outside and is not a liability on the P&R. Ideally one who can play next to Gafford at times.

To my way of thinking we need an upgrade for Bertans as well, or at least a reasonable substitute in a longball 4. Too much to expect that insane quick trigger 3, but still, better defense and rebounding are possible.

That's what has me looking at a guy like Petrusev in the draft. If we draft at least one more head on that three headed monster, and they can swing 4/5 with some range then we are doing alright. Maybe Bryant is that guy next to Gafford, but I'm unconvinced.

Still I'm the guy who wants both Petrusev and Queta, so. I guess I'm fine drafting all 3 heads of the monster.

[nate33]

I have no interest whatsoever in Sabonis, certainly not at what is asking price would be. I think of him as just a slightly better version of Thomas Bryant. He can post numbers, but can you really win with a center who can't protect the rim?

Now that we have Gafford, I really don't see center as the position to focus on when it comes to upgrading. We have much bigger weaknesses at SF and backup guard.

I'd agree except that we have been succeeding with a 3 headed monster at C. Granted two are cheap back-ups. And Sabonis is alright but not all that, I'd agree. But if in the draft there was an upgrade for Bryant on the board, well, that would be a pretty good player. I'd like a big with range who can play outside and is not a liability on the P&R. Ideally one who can play next to Gafford at times.

To my way of thinking we need an upgrade for Bertans as well, or at least a reasonable substitute in a longball 4. Too much to expect that insane quick trigger 3, but still, better defense and rebounding are possible.

That's what has me looking at a guy like Petrusev in the draft. If we draft at least one more head on that three headed monster, and they can swing 4/5 with some range then we are doing alright. Maybe Bryant is that guy next to Gafford, but I'm unconvinced.

Still I'm the guy who wants both Petrusev and Queta, so. I guess I'm fine drafting all 3 heads of the monster.

Sorry doc. It just doesn't make sense, IMO. Mediocre centers are cheap. Head #3 of that 3-headed monster should not be a guy we invest our 1st round draft pick in, particularly when centers take a few years to become useful.

We can get our 3rd center in free agency for the vet-minimum, or maybe the BAE or a portion of the MLE. If nothing else, I'd want an experienced vet since we already have two youngsters in Bryant and Gafford.

You can't forget that this team has $94M locked up in Beal, Westbrook and Bertans alone. We need that 1st round pick to acquire a quality player on the cheap at wing or guard where we are thin. We can't keep pouring resources into the center position if we already acknowledge that at least 35-40 minutes a night are already going to go to Bryant and Gafford.

[gambitx777]

Especially when we know for a fact that we can resign Len or Lopez or both for the vet min or maybe slightly more nest year. I wish we had deni right now we would be looking so good with him playing hutches and Matthews minutes. We need to focus on replacing ish with a younger better option and getting wing help .

I have no interest whatsoever in Sabonis, certainly not at what is asking price would be. I think of him as just a slightly better version of Thomas Bryant. He can post numbers, but can you really win with a center who can't protect the rim?

Now that we have Gafford, I really don't see center as the position to focus on when it comes to upgrading. We have much bigger weaknesses at SF and backup guard.

I'd agree except that we have been succeeding with a 3 headed monster at C. Granted two are cheap back-ups. And Sabonis is alright but not all that, I'd agree. But if in the draft there was an upgrade for Bryant on the board, well, that would be a pretty good player. I'd like a big with range who can play outside and is not a liability on the P&R. Ideally one who can play next to Gafford at times.

To my way of thinking we need an upgrade for Bertans as well, or at least a reasonable substitute in a longball 4. Too much to expect that insane quick trigger 3, but still, better defense and rebounding are possible.

That's what has me looking at a guy like Petrusev in the draft. If we draft at least one more head on that three headed monster, and they can swing 4/5 with some range then we are doing alright. Maybe Bryant is that guy next to Gafford, but I'm unconvinced.

Still I'm the guy who wants both Petrusev and Queta, so. I guess I'm fine drafting all 3 heads of the monster.

Sorry doc. It just doesn't make sense, IMO. Mediocre centers are cheap. Head #3 of that 3-headed monster should not be a guy we invest our 1st round draft pick in, particularly when centers take a few years to become useful.

We can get our 3rd center in free agency for the vet-minimum, or maybe the BAE or a portion of the MLE. If nothing else, I'd want an experienced vet since we already have two youngsters in Bryant and Gafford.

You can't forget that this team has $94M locked up in Beal, Westbrook and Bertans alone. We need that 1st round pick to acquire a quality player on the cheap at wing or guard where we are thin. We can't keep pouring resources into the center position if we already acknowledge that at least 35-40 minutes a night are already going to go to Bryant and Gafford.

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[9 and 20]

Derozan is a free agent. With Westbrook here, he may give us a look. Not sure how much he would cost or if we could afford him. Also not sure of the fit since he still can't shoot. He still a really good player, though.

If he'd sign here, I'd probably bring him in and figure the rest out later.

[gambitx777]

I mean at this point can derozen get more than mid level money ? Probably I can see him getting 15-18 somewhere but idk maybe he wants a 4 year fully G deal. He might have to take less for that and maybe we can offer him the mid but we would then have to commit to going into the tax and is eg gonna do that just to compeat for the 4-6 spot in the east. ?

Derozan is a free agent. With Westbrook here, he may give us a look. Not sure how much he would cost or if we could afford him. Also not sure of the fit since he still can't shoot. He still a really good player, though.

If he'd sign here, I'd probably bring him in and figure the rest out later.

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[wall_glizzy]

I mean at this point can derozen get more than mid level money ? Probably I can see him getting 15-18 somewhere but idk maybe he wants a 4 year fully G deal. He might have to take less for that and maybe we can offer him the mid but we would then have to commit to going into the tax and is eg gonna do that just to compeat for the 4-6 spot in the east. ?

Derozan is a free agent. With Westbrook here, he may give us a look. Not sure how much he would cost or if we could afford him. Also not sure of the fit since he still can't shoot. He still a really good player, though.

If he'd sign here, I'd probably bring him in and figure the rest out later.

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He just had arguably the best year of his career; worst case, he's one season removed from it. He'll get plenty of money. He's also a pretty poor fit for our team, besides being someone that we almost certainly can't afford without clearing significant cap space.

[gambitx777]

Yeah like I said I bet he can get way more that kid level money somewhere. I don't know where exactly, but I don't see him taking a pay cut for us. Maybe the Lakers or the clippers or the heat, but not us.

I mean at this point can derozen get more than mid level money ? Probably I can see him getting 15-18 somewhere but idk maybe he wants a 4 year fully G deal. He might have to take less for that and maybe we can offer him the mid but we would then have to commit to going into the tax and is eg gonna do that just to compeat for the 4-6 spot in the east. ?

Derozan is a free agent. With Westbrook here, he may give us a look. Not sure how much he would cost or if we could afford him. Also not sure of the fit since he still can't shoot. He still a really good player, though.

If he'd sign here, I'd probably bring him in and figure the rest out later.

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He just had arguably the best year of his career; worst case, he's one season removed from it. He'll get plenty of money. He's also a pretty poor fit for our team, besides being someone that we almost certainly can't afford without clearing significant cap space.

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[9 and 20]

Yeah, I may be dreaming too much on Russ' ability to draw others and convince them to take pay cuts to be here. He's not the easiest player in the world to play with so it may be completely out of the question - and that leaves aside the question of Derozan's fit.

I don't know who else is out there that could elevate the team into the upper half of the conference - that is obtainable, anyway. I liked the Christian Wood idea but i doubt the Rockets trade him.

[pcbothwel]

I still think Otto is intriguing. I could see him signing a 1 year deal and trying to rehab his value.
1) We can off him more money than most teams with the Full MLE.
2) With EG and Brooks gone, then I could see a reunion with him in DC.
3) Russ takes a lot of usage/playmaking pressure off him and allow him to be a 3rd/4th piece.
4) Assuming he his healthy, He slides right in to the starting lineup next to Rui in a great forward rotation.

Adding Otto, Jared Butler/Springer, and a Healthy Thomas Bryant to this team could make us a very interesting lineup.
Our Pace, versatility, and shooting from all positions make us very unique.

[Ruzious]

The problem with Otto is that he's played a total of 88 games these 3 seasons. But yeah, I'd take a chance on him for a reasonable price - there aren't a lot of 3's available who can shoot and D like him - not to mention he adds versatility with his ability to play the 4 - he can play with any of our forwards.

[doclinkin]

I have no interest whatsoever in Sabonis, certainly not at what is asking price would be. I think of him as just a slightly better version of Thomas Bryant. He can post numbers, but can you really win with a center who can't protect the rim?

Now that we have Gafford, I really don't see center as the position to focus on when it comes to upgrading. We have much bigger weaknesses at SF and backup guard.

I'd agree except that we have been succeeding with a 3 headed monster at C. Granted two are cheap back-ups. And Sabonis is alright but not all that, I'd agree. But if in the draft there was an upgrade for Bryant on the board, well, that would be a pretty good player. I'd like a big with range who can play outside and is not a liability on the P&R. Ideally one who can play next to Gafford at times.

To my way of thinking we need an upgrade for Bertans as well, or at least a reasonable substitute in a longball 4. Too much to expect that insane quick trigger 3, but still, better defense and rebounding are possible.

That's what has me looking at a guy like Petrusev in the draft. If we draft at least one more head on that three headed monster, and they can swing 4/5 with some range then we are doing alright. Maybe Bryant is that guy next to Gafford, but I'm unconvinced.

Still I'm the guy who wants both Petrusev and Queta, so. I guess I'm fine drafting all 3 heads of the monster.

Sorry doc. It just doesn't make sense, IMO. Mediocre centers are cheap. Head #3 of that 3-headed monster should not be a guy we invest our 1st round draft pick in, particularly when centers take a few years to become useful.

We can get our 3rd center in free agency for the vet-minimum, or maybe the BAE or a portion of the MLE. If nothing else, I'd want an experienced vet since we already have two youngsters in Bryant and Gafford.

You can't forget that this team has $94M locked up in Beal, Westbrook and Bertans alone. We need that 1st round pick to acquire a quality player on the cheap at wing or guard where we are thin. We can't keep pouring resources into the center position if we already acknowledge that at least 35-40 minutes a night are already going to go to Bryant and Gafford.

Difference is I'm not sold on Bryant as an answer at 5. Maybe he can play next to Gafford. Maybe we can offense/defense swap at times, but our future is capped with him in the middle as a keystone player. With Bryant in place we had one of the worst defenses in history. IT had a role in that, but even without him we were near the bottom of the league. If Bryant were able to show his offense a few games, and we had a credible replacement, I'd be listening for teams that had a surplus of wing players who wanted a Big man. Make a trade when he shows value. Maybe he proves me wrong. Maybe he comes back stronger even after the ACL. Maybe he plays well with Russ, stretches the floor, improves his defense and mobility. He has energy and drive, good heart, so it could happen. But a defensive liability at 5 is very difficult to overcome. And he can't be played with Bertans since then BOTH of your bigs are a problem.

Gafford/Len/Lopez succeed since they are decent positional defenders who take up a lot of space in the middle, and in the case of Lopez we have a smart player who makes the right reads, boxing out, sealing off half the paint when the ball goes up. Yes veteran centers were available this year. The way I see it, defensive centers currently in the market are undervalued according to their impact. I suspect last postseason has begun to tilt the seesaw back, and this post season will likely underscore that. I think defensive Bigs are going begin to get paid again. I expect both Len and Hook Lopez have earned themselves a bit of a raise this season. Lopez ahead of Len. I feel like the metagame is turning such that there will be value in the position, and having more than one will not be a luxury but a significant asset. As they have proven to be this year.

In any case: I am talking Best Player Available. Not Best Compromise At Position of Need. And even better if you can trade back and get multiple players who are better than the players drafted before them. And or useful assets or future picks. If you select worse players than the teams you are competing against, then they get the better players while you are trying to patch holes. You get better long term by thinking long term, unless you think we are ready today. Some years that SF is not in the draft. The back-up SG is in a future draft. So you take the guy who is there. The hardest way to get good value is a same-for-same position swap. If you have surplus players at a given position, you can get value from another team who has a hole there. Bigs also seem to be less durable. If one goes down you need a back up. We have had what, five centers this year? Six if you count Yoeli Childs? Teams who lose one will pay to take one of ours.

In this draft I see a couple players that to my eye stand out as better than the guys projected to be selected ahead of them. Those players happen to be Bigs. Okay snatch one if not both, if you can trade back to get them and pull additional assets you are winning compared to teams that pick lesser talent looking for fit.

Do I think this team WILL do so? No. They don't trade back. They have their board and pick the guy who they think has the best value. They think like scouts more than gamesplayers. And they likely think as you do that we are set with Bryant. And have no need for a 4/5 since we have potential 4's in Rui/Deni.

We can check back in a few years if we think Petrusev and Queta gave better value than the position they were picked. We can look back to see if they were 'mediocre centers'. I trust my assessment that they will prove better than that. And better than a few guards and wings who are picked ahead of them.

[Frichuela]

I still think Otto is intriguing. I could see him signing a 1 year deal and trying to rehab his value.
1) We can off him more money than most teams with the Full MLE.
2) With EG and Brooks gone, then I could see a reunion with him in DC.
3) Russ takes a lot of usage/playmaking pressure off him and allow him to be a 3rd/4th piece.
4) Assuming he his healthy, He slides right in to the starting lineup next to Rui in a great forward rotation.

Adding Otto, Jared Butler/Springer, and a Healthy Thomas Bryant to this team could make us a very interesting lineup.
Our Pace, versatility, and shooting from all positions make us very unique.

Agreed. I share your point of view. Otto would be worth a gamble, the obvious risk being his inability to stay healthy. He would be a great compliment to Brad and Russ, particularly come play-off time.

[Frichuela]

A cheaper (and less risky) alternative to Otto is to sign someone like Kent Bazemore or Torrey Craig as a 3&D wing in the off season. Both would likely cost less than $5 mn/year, are strong defenders and have improved their 3 pt percentage this season to a reasonable clip. Obviously both options offer a much lower ceiling than a healthy Otto.

[NatP4]

I still think Otto is intriguing. I could see him signing a 1 year deal and trying to rehab his value.
1) We can off him more money than most teams with the Full MLE.
2) With EG and Brooks gone, then I could see a reunion with him in DC.
3) Russ takes a lot of usage/playmaking pressure off him and allow him to be a 3rd/4th piece.
4) Assuming he his healthy, He slides right in to the starting lineup next to Rui in a great forward rotation.

Adding Otto, Jared Butler/Springer, and a Healthy Thomas Bryant to this team could make us a very interesting lineup.
Our Pace, versatility, and shooting from all positions make us very unique.

I’m all for Otto+Butler in the draft.

Butler is a perfect fit as a 3rd guard with Beal and Westbrook. We all know how well Otto could fit as an off ball 3&D wing with low usage. Beal would be all for that reunion.

I would also be just fine with re signing Neto as that 3rd guard and drafting Wagner to be that low usage off ball scoring wing.