Race for Ping Pong Balls

Message Boar · Post #1041 » by **Message Boar** » Mon May 10, 2021 11:17 am

^I'll gladly take that pull, drsd

drsd · Post #1042 » by **drsd** » Mon May 10, 2021 12:08 pm

..

A Minnesota fan asked about the current three way tie-breaker. Below is an example set of text I sent:

Yes, I am wondering how the tiebreakers work. Or if they just adjust the lottery odds to make them all equal???

There is a “coin flip” to break any lottery ball ties (if an odd number results from the averaging). That “flip” is also used to break the ties when neither team wins the top-4 in the lottery.

For example, let's say the there are three teams tied for 3rd/4th/5th worst - which is currently the case, these teams split equally the 125+105+90 lottery possibilities of the 1001 draws that can occur. As the sum of 320 is not divisible by three, the teams split 318 options and a pre-lottery lottery allocates the other two balls to two of the three teams; two teams will get 107 lottery chances and one team gets 106 options. All three teams have this pre-draft “coin flip” determine their draft slot as well in the event of not going top-4. So here the before lottery draw “coin flip” would allocate their order AND break the lottery ball divide; it's the same “coin-flip” and these two things are thus coupled.

I will make a hypothetical:

Team-A is worst team (140 lottery balls)
Team-B is 2nd worst team (140 lottery balls)
Team-C is 3rd worst team (140 lottery balls)
Team-D is tied 4/5/6 wins the top (107 lottery balls)
Team-E is tied 4/5/6 wins the middle (107 lottery balls)
Team-F is tied 4/5/6 loses the pre-lottery lottery (106 lottery balls)
Team-G is 7th worst (75 lottery balls)
Team-H is 8th worst (60 lottery balls)
Team-I is 9th worst (45 lottery balls)
Team-J is 10th worst (30 lottery balls)
Team-K is 11th worst (20 lottery balls)
Teak-L is 12th worst (15 lottery balls)
Teak-M is 13th worst (10 lottery balls)
Teak-N is 14th worst (5 lottery balls)

Team-F (which I will call “Orlando") has its combination drawn first - it wins the lottery and leapfrogs the other two tied teams. All balls thrown back in the hopper. Team-E has its number drawn again - you can’t win twice so an invalid draw and start again. Team-I (I will call “ Sacramento") has one of its numbers called. All balls thrown back in the hopper. Team-E gets its number called (I will call “Minnesota”; climbing over the top-tied team). Team-B gets its number called (I will call “Detroit”).

The draft would be thus:
1- Team-F (Orlando)
2- Team-I (Sacramento)
3- Team-E (Minnesota)
4- Team-B (Detroit)
5- Team-A (Houston)
6- Team-C (OKC)
7- Team-D (Cleveland)
8- Team-G (Toronto)
9- Team-H (Chicago)
10- Team-J (New Orleans)
11- Team-K (Indiana)
12- Teak-L (Washington)
13- Teak-M (San Antonio)
14- Teak-N (Memphis)

In this not unrealistic scenario, Orlando lost the pre-lottery lottery but leap frogs Minnesota and Cleveland. Cleveland wins the pre-lottery lottery and still ends up drafting 7. Minnesota’s pick does not convey to Golden State. Chicago’s pick slides a slot but conveys to Orlando.

Caveat: if a team wins the play-in it is not in the lottery. So a 7 or 8 seed could end up in the lottery over a 9 or 10 seed.

pepe1991 · Post #1043 » by **pepe1991** » Mon May 10, 2021 12:13 pm

it's not ping pong balls that are drawn, but combinations... Magic "almost" won lottery in 2018 according to some inside story or whatever. We were one of 4 teams drawn with 1# pick, but Suns had "winning" combination.

It’s worth noting that the ping pong balls themselves are not what decide the lottery, but the combination of numbers selected from picking four consecutive ping pong balls (i.e., if one of the Magic’s lottery numbers is 5398, they are hoping the lottery balls are selected as 5-3-9-8 in that order. 5-3-9-9 is probably a different team’s winning combination. The lottery odds are determined by how many of these four digit combinations a team has). I think NBA 2K is the root of this confusion for how the lottery odds work, since they have that funny little animation of a ping pong ball dropping in with a team’s logo on it to visualize the calculation being done on the back-end, causing people to think this is what the lottery is like behind the scenes

So basically, if a team ties record wise, their lottery odds are split evenly. If it’s an uneven combination and one combination is a leftover, they will random draw to determine who gets that one extra number combination

This is why I don’t really think much about who the Magic could or could not have drafted if they lost a few more games at the end of the season – there’s no telling which number combinations would transfer between teams

I remember a few years back when Ayton was drafted first overall (the year everyone complained that they won a few meaningless games and supposedly lost out on Doncic and Young) – a story came out that in the lottery room, after the first three numbers were selected, the room was extremely tense because there were like four teams who were one number away from getting the first overall pick – the Suns, the Magic, and two others I can’t remember anymore. At the end of all the pre-lottery odds, the Magic were somewhere between a 10% chance and a 70% chance of getting the #1 overall pick, depending on how many of those final 10 numbers they had. I don’t think any of the combinations remaining were owned by Dallas or Atlanta, and it’s unlikely the few the Magic lost from winning meaningless games were any of those numbers

drsd · Post #1044 » by **drsd** » Mon May 10, 2021 12:37 pm

pepe1991 wrote:it's not ping pong balls that are drawn, but combinations...

There are 1001 lottery outcomes. In brief:

There are 14 numbered ping pong balls used. A four-number combination from the 14 balls are drawn to determine the lottery winner. It is the number and not the order that counts. Prior to the draft, the NBA assigns 1,000 possible combinations to the non-playoff teams (the 11–12–13–14 combination is ignored and redrawn). The process is then repeated to determine the second, third pick, and forth pick.

What I do not know is the process of allocating the possible 1000 combinations to each team. Presumably it is computer generated.

..

MAGICian619 · Post #1045 » by **MAGICian619** » Mon May 10, 2021 2:03 pm

drsd wrote:
pepe1991 wrote:it's not ping pong balls that are drawn, but combinations...

There are 1001 lottery outcomes. In brief:

There are 14 numbered ping pong balls used. A four-number combination from the 14 balls are drawn to determine the lottery winner. It is the number and not the order that counts. Prior to the draft, the NBA assigns 1,000 possible combinations to the non-playoff teams (the 11–12–13–14 combination is ignored and redrawn). The process is then repeated to determine the second, third pick, and forth pick.

What I do not know is the process of allocating the possible 1000 combinations to each team. Presumably it is computer generated.

..

I believe I have seen the combinations list in previous lotteries and if I remember correctly, they just go in order with the teams with the best odds starting with the lower numbers. So this year, essentially any combo with a 1 drawn, will likely go to Houston as they will have most if not all combos with 1 in it. For a team with very low odds to win, they would need 14-13-x-x combos as they are given the high number combos but obviously not many of them.

Wingy · Post #1046 » by **Wingy** » Mon May 10, 2021 2:57 pm

EDIT: My bad, I just noticed the thread about who you're targeting w/the Bulls pick, which answers the question...so I'll read up there.

-----
Bulls fan back cause I love me pick tracking threads.

I got the Magic's dream pull on my first Tankathon attempt today: 1st & 8th
..but then the next one got mine (Bulls at 1).

Mostly came back cause I was wondering if there was any kind of consensus around who your board would prefer in the event you ended up w/two mid-lottery picks? Say, 7 & 8?

While most fans in general are happy in the top 4 at this stage of this draft (though I fully expect one or more to greatly disappoint vs the hype), after that it's (as usual) a lot more murky.

basketballRob · Post #1047 » by **basketballRob** » Mon May 10, 2021 4:24 pm

Wingy wrote:EDIT: My bad, I just noticed the thread about who you're targeting w/the Bulls pick, which answers the question...so I'll read up there.

-----
Bulls fan back cause I love me pick tracking threads.

I got the Magic's dream pull on my first Tankathon attempt today: 1st & 8th
..but then the next one got mine (Bulls at 1).

Mostly came back cause I was wondering if there was any kind of consensus around who your board would prefer in the event you ended up w/two mid-lottery picks? Say, 7 & 8?

While most fans in general are happy in the top 4 at this stage of this draft (though I fully expect one or more to greatly disappoint vs the hype), after that it's (as usual) a lot more murky.

If we had the 7 and 8 picks we'd probably take either Barnes, Keon Johnson, or Wagner, depending on who goes 6th.

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thelead · Post #1048 » by **thelead** » Mon May 10, 2021 6:26 pm

If we get 7 & 8... and unable to trade it for a top 4 pick

j-ragg · Post #1049 » by **j-ragg** » Mon May 10, 2021 7:31 pm

Keon Johnson looks like the one stay-away prospect to me.

Scottie Barnes is the one prospect with no jumper that I wouldn’t mind just because of his passing ability, would bring something most of the young core doesn’t do well. But that jumper is butt ugly.

I’m all in on Moses for our 2nd lotto pick.

The Effect · Post #1050 » by **The Effect** » Mon May 10, 2021 7:44 pm

if we got 7-8......i dont think id even be able to get myself excited for the draft enough to even watch

We literally tanked our entire roster for this draft so we can get a top3 pick and then end up with 2 mid-lotto players.....no

In that scenario, i guess i would hope for Moody and Juzang, but cant say id be excited even if they took those guys

Nyce_1 · Post #1051 » by **Nyce_1** » Mon May 10, 2021 8:42 pm

thelead wrote::cry: *WHEN we get 7 & 8... and unable to trade it for a top 4 pick

fixed.

RookieStar · Post #1052 » by **RookieStar** » Mon May 10, 2021 8:47 pm

The Effect wrote:if we got 7-8......i dont think id even be able to get myself excited for the draft enough to even watch

We literally tanked our entire roster for this draft so we can get a top3 pick and then end up with 2 mid-lotto players.....no

In that scenario, i guess i would hope for Moody and Juzang, but cant say id be excited even if they took those guys

Juzang... wow I neve expected his name to come up in our discussions.

LOL but yeah hard to be excited about the draft if we get 7 and 8 especially when we psyched ourselves up fop the Cade/Suggs/Greeen choices..

basketballRob · Post #1053 » by **basketballRob** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:23 pm

Not sure who I want to win in the Cleveland vs Pacers game.

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Post #1054 » by **Knightro** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:24 pm

basketballRob wrote:Not sure who I want to win in the Cleveland vs Pacers game.

Cleveland and it's not even a discussion.

RookieStar · Post #1055 » by **RookieStar** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:31 pm

Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:Not sure who I want to win in the Cleveland vs Pacers game.

Cleveland and it's not even a discussion.

Same. Cavs are on our heels. Why do we want PAcers to win?

BCS · Post #1056 » by **BCS** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:40 pm

basketballRob wrote:Not sure who I want to win in the Cleveland vs Pacers game.

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Our pick is priority over the Bulls pick. I could care less if we do not get that pick as long as that means we have one of the top picks

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basketballRob · Post #1057 » by **basketballRob** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:43 pm

RookieStar wrote:
Knightro wrote:
basketballRob wrote:Not sure who I want to win in the Cleveland vs Pacers game.

Cleveland and it's not even a discussion.

Same. Cavs are on our heels. Why do we want PAcers to win?

They are 2 games up on Chicago and they hold the tiebreaker.

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Post #1058 » by **SOUL** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:47 pm

basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Knightro wrote:
Cleveland and it's not even a discussion.

Same. Cavs are on our heels. Why do we want PAcers to win?
They are 2 games up on Chicago and they hold the tiebreaker.

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Yeah, I couldn't care less about Chicago pick. Further down means the harder it is for them to get top 4. Picks 8-12 for me are negligible.

Post #1059 » by **Knightro** » Mon May 10, 2021 9:59 pm

basketballRob wrote:They are 2 games up on Chicago and they hold the tiebreaker.

Having better odds at the lotto with the Magic's own pick is miles more valuable.

I would trade the Bulls making the playoffs for the best possible lotto odds for the Magic's own pick 100 times out of 100.

RookieStar · Post #1060 » by **RookieStar** » Mon May 10, 2021 10:05 pm

SOUL wrote:
basketballRob wrote:
RookieStar wrote:
Same. Cavs are on our heels. Why do we want PAcers to win?
They are 2 games up on Chicago and they hold the tiebreaker.

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Yeah, I couldn't care less about Chicago pick. Further down means the harder it is for them to get top 4. Picks 8-12 for me are negligible.

I think majority of us here couldnt care less about the CHI pick if it means we get a sure-fire top4 pick. Also, some of us (especially me ) would prefer a safe 10-14 pick over a risky chance to get a 5-7 pick.