The Harden Trade - Checking in...

[Prokorov]

Clear the harden move is a massive win. So no need to really worry about whether it was the right move or not... BUT I think its nice to check in and see what the stuff we gave up looks like:

Players:
Jarrett Allen:
13/10/2 on 63 FG% 66 TS%. he has been everything we envisioned and will continue to get better.
It is rumored the Cavs/Allen have a handshake agreement on a 5/104 extension.

Caris Levert:
20/4/4 on 44/32/79 52TS%
Levert recovered nicely from his surgery. he is posting the numbers many thought he would, but has still struggled with shooting/efficiency

Rodions Kurucs:
Waived.

Draft Picks:
Swap 1: We have clinched so that this pick will NOT convey.
Pick 1
Swap 2
Pick 2
Swap 3
Pick 3
Swap 4

So the first of our picks swap did not convey, bringing the price from 7 picks to 6. Allen is playing great, but will get paid more then we maybe could have realistically paid. and Levert is pretty much the same guy. good all around player, but injury prone and poor shooting.

We have shown an ability to put up a top record, despite guys being out of the lineup. id expect next years pick to be mid to lates 20s and then second swap not to convey as well

[Stone]

Wow....5 years at 104 for Big Jay, that would be great. I recall Ed Davis prediction that Jay would get a 100 million dollar contract. That would prove the nay sayers who called our guys the Nets Trash wrong. Hope Cleveland gets a top pick in the draft.

And of corse the Caris trade was bigger than basketball, it may have saved the mans life. Right there it is a win.

Rodi.....I'm disappointed, he had that rookie year that showed so much promise. It is a tough business, who knows he might be back with another team next year or he could do well to play overseas.

In all honesty as far as the picks are concerned. You have to give to get something good back. IF Houston ends up with a top lottery pick that turns into a great player, I won't complain look what they gave up.

[Prokorov]

Wow....5 years at 104 for Big Jay, that would be great. I recall Ed Davis prediction that Jay would get a 100 million dollar contract. That would prove the nay sayers who called our guys the Nets Trash wrong. Hope Cleveland gets a top pick in the draft.

And of corse the Caris trade was bigger than basketball, it may have saved the mans life. Right there it is a win.

Rodi.....I'm disappointed, he had that rookie year that showed so much promise. It is a tough business, who knows he might be back with another team next year or he could do well to play overseas.

In all honesty as far as the picks are concerned. You have to give to get something good back. IF Houston ends up with a top lottery pick that turns into a great player, I won't complain look what they gave up.

Relatively speaking, i dont think criticism of the nets assets is really a reach. Allen/Levert are good players, but we traded for James Harden not James Johnson. Names like Ben Simmons were being thrown around.

The Nets did not give up 1 single "good" or "great" asset in this deal. the closest would be a 2023/2025 pick/swap if we ended up with a top 5 pick.

This was a steal for us, and it is becoming more of a steal if you consider we may not have paid allen and swaps dont convey.

regarding kurucs, the domestic violence/assault case may have derailed his career. serious charges that are still on going that could lead to jailtime or even being deported

[gigantes]

I feel better about the trade, and the Beard has been amazing; arguably the MVP of the team. And if Nash hadn't ridden him super-heavy minutes (he's averaged in the high-30's with the Nets, I think), Harden arguably would have been around the whole time, perhaps allowing the Nets to finish with the #1 seed.

That said, I also feel the trade was indeed a "massive win" for Houston, and the Nets did pay a frightful price, especially considering how much leverage we allegedly had over Houston (and Philly). And yeah, it's fair to qualify that we wouldn't have been able to keep Fro, but that doesn't mean he (and Caris) didn't have significant trade value. Somehow we wound up getting a fraction of that value back though, particularly Fro's.

To me, the trade will be an automatic "massive win" if the Nets win a chip, or get to the finals a couple times. Otherwise, it's going to be similar to the KG&PP trade, in which the team is gambling that the traded picks won't end up being worth much. This time around we have a better shot, but still...

That said again, I do sort of admire Marks' guts in pulling the trigger, and in painting himself in to a corner of sorts, challenging himself to find gems in the rough (outside of ring-chasing vets) for a long time to come. So far, so good... many more years to go, though.

[HardenGoat]

You already know what I think of Harden and (fully healthy) he is going to lead this team to a ring. That is pretty much priceless because if he wasn't here he would have replaced Simmons and the 76ers would be in the finals for how ever many years he has left. Some would argue the players lost and picks that were kept would make up for it, but I know that man on the sixers would be just as unstoppable, the players around him would be even better, and a tandem with Embiid would be unimaginable with shooters in place. The Celtics are a perfect example of a team that overvalues their own players and picks for a future that never materializes. Superstar players like Harden are exceptionally rare, the impact to a team is similar to that of Lebron and he is going to be remembered as one of the greatest players of all time. Players like Harden almost never become available, let alone exist.

[Prokorov]

I feel better about the trade, and the Beard has been amazing; arguably the MVP of the team. And if Nash hadn't ridden him super-heavy minutes (he's averaged in the high-30's with the Nets, I think), Harden arguably would have been around the whole time, perhaps allowing the Nets to finish with the #1 seed.

That said, I also feel the trade was indeed a "massive win" for Houston, and the Nets did pay a frightful price, especially considering how much leverage we allegedly had over Houston (and Philly). And yeah, it's fair to qualify that we wouldn't have been able to keep Fro, but that doesn't mean he (and Caris) didn't have significant trade value. Somehow we wound up getting a fraction of that value back though, particularly Fro's.

To me, the trade will be an automatic "massive win" if the Nets win a chip, or get to the finals a couple times. Otherwise, it's going to be similar to the KG&PP trade, in which the team is gambling that the traded picks won't end up being worth much. This time around we have a better shot, but still...

That said again, I do sort of admire Marks' guts in pulling the trigger, and in painting himself in to a corner of sorts, challenging himself to find gems in the rough (outside of ring-chasing vets) for a long time to come. So far, so good... many more years to go, though.

I dont see how this is a "massive win" for the rockets:

-they got 0 good young players
-they got 0 guranteed lottery picks

this was basically Harden strong arming them into a salary dump with some trash picks.

They had their choice of Allen or Cap + bottom 5 pick (bucks).
They had their choice of Levert or Cap

1 of 4 swaps has not conveyed, 3 to be determined
1 of 4 nets picks will be non-lotto (almost certainly, next year), the rest undetermined


Even if they took levert and allen they are getting a 27 year old oft injured chucker. that isnt any better then the cap savings. Allen is better then the bucks pick, but at 5/100 (probably more to overpay to keep him) he no longer is super valuable. Neither is a lock all-star now or in the future.

Lets say they kept levert + allen.

Tahats a 27 year old 0 time allstar and a 23 year old allen due 20+ million per year who is not a lock to be an all-star.

plus 4 picks, 3 swaps, none locked in the lotto with probably 0 chance at a top 5 pick in there.

I know harden did them dirty, but thats a terrible haul for an in-prime top 7 player

[gigantes]

I dont see how this is a "massive win" for the rockets:

-they got 0 good young players
-they got 0 guranteed lottery picks

this was basically Harden strong arming them into a salary dump with some trash picks.

...

I know harden did them dirty, but thats a terrible haul for an in-prime top 7 player

I don't disagree with the scenarios you laid out, and to my mind, you're frankly far more knowledgeable and intelligent when it comes to such things. And that's fine, as far as it goes.

But given the position that Harden put the Rox in, I certainly disagree that they got a poor haul. On the contrary-- when you compare this ultimatum situation to others around the league, going back a couple decades now, I think HOU got about as massive a haul as they could possibly hope for. There is no worse situation than a star / massively-expensive player refusing to play, demanding a trade, and insisting on going to one particular team. (or maybe one or two others, but still)

Also, let's not forget that the Beard is going to be 32 in three months. Nothing against the man (he's amazing), but that is typically either the very end of one's prime (on fumes), or else the beginning of his final years of effectiveness. Now maybe Harden is the outlier, but still... this is not The Beard from say, four years ago... worth an absolute king's ransom. Let's not BS each other on that idea matey, okay?

Now, I assume we'll never really know how much the whole 'd-psh-t Fertita refuses to treat with Morey' thing had legs, but not only was this a beyond-reasonable-expectations haul for them for a statistically fading asset, but there's still a real chance for the Rox that we crash and burn ala the post-KG/PP years, turning those 'no lottery picks' in to 'very much lottery picks.' Very high ones, even, ala Danny / Beantown.

For sure we're all going to be depressed as hell if it plays out like that, but considering the remarkably light price HOU paid for the Beard, there's no question they absolutely got both a spectacular return for years (via his absolute kickassery), and a *really* nice return for an aging version of him.

[kuclas]

It all depends if harden kd Irving all opt out after 2021-2022 season. It will each their last mega rich contract. They will all want max contracts.

Any nba title gain is absolutely worth it even with 5-7 bad years coming up.

[Prokorov]

I dont see how this is a "massive win" for the rockets:

-they got 0 good young players
-they got 0 guranteed lottery picks

this was basically Harden strong arming them into a salary dump with some trash picks.

...

I know harden did them dirty, but thats a terrible haul for an in-prime top 7 player

I don't disagree with the scenarios you laid out, and to my mind, you're frankly far more knowledgeable and intelligent when it comes to such things. And that's fine, as far as it goes.

But given the position that Harden put the Rox in, I certainly disagree that they got a poor haul. On the contrary-- when you compare this ultimatum situation to others around the league, going back a couple decades now, I think HOU got about as massive a haul as they could possibly hope for. There is no worse situation than a star / massively-expensive player refusing to play, demanding a trade, and insisting on going to one particular team. (or maybe one or two others, but still)

Also, let's not forget that the Beard is going to be 32 in three months. Nothing against the man (he's amazing), but that is typically either the very end of one's prime (on fumes), or else the beginning of his final years of effectiveness. Now maybe Harden is the outlier, but still... this is not The Beard from say, four years ago... worth an absolute king's ransom. Let's not BS each other on that idea matey, okay?

Now, I assume we'll never really know how much the whole 'd-psh-t Fertita refuses to treat with Morey' thing had legs, but not only was this a beyond-reasonable-expectations haul for them for a statistically fading asset, but there's still a real chance for the Rox that we crash and burn ala the post-KG/PP years, turning those 'no lottery picks' in to 'very much lottery picks.' Very high ones, even, ala Danny / Beantown.

For sure we're all going to be depressed as hell if it plays out like that, but considering the remarkably light price HOU paid for the Beard, there's no question they absolutely got both a spectacular return for years (via his absolute kickassery), and a *really* nice return for an aging version of him.

This is all fair. the awnser is probably in the middle. Harden really did them dirty and they tried to string it out for more leverage. They likely could have had simmons, but the owner probably didnt want to do business with morey. sucks having a crappy owner.

given it was probably they need to trade him and trade him to the nets, they could have done alot worse.

[Prokorov]

It all depends if harden kd Irving all opt out after 2021-2022 season. It will each their last mega rich contract. They will all want max contracts.

Any nba title gain is absolutely worth it even with 5-7 bad years coming up.

Lets say the nets fail to win a title the next 2 years. and lets say all 3 guys leave for nothing. thats basically "worst case".
(Kyrie doesnt have a year 3 opt out but say he retires or whatever).

-You would have given fans arguably the 2 best years in the teams NBA exsistence
-You broke the franchise win% record
-You gave yourself a 2-year title window, something the team hasnt seen in 20 years
-You made Brooklyn a relevant FA destination, and shown stars the organization is star friendly

Fast forward. it is now the 22-23 season:

Cap space:
-Nets have 80-90+ million in cap space

Draft Picks:
'23 - Worst of our pick or Houstons pick
'24 - no pick
'25 - worst of our pick or Houstons pick
'26 - no pick
'27 - worst of our pick or Houstons pick

Roster
Joe Harris
Alize Johnson
Nic Claxton
'21 1st round pick

We would be 100 times better then we were for our last rebuild. We would be established as a good landing spot for stars with multiple max slots for stars to team up. And if they didnt, we could go the knicks route and sign mid-level guys with potential to 1+1 or 2+1 deals.

If we are still good, we keep our picks, and become more attractive for free agents. if we suck, we get the rocks pick, which at least in '23 should still be lotto, giving how competitive the west is and them owing their own picks to OKC. it has gone really understated that this is so different from boston because houstons road to rebuilding is tougher. for one they are in the west and for 2 they owe OKC so much.

with the boston deal, we stunk, which is tougher now since we are a bigger FA spot with a ton more cap then we were last time (post-king traded we were saddled with williams/johnsons contracts). Now we have tons of cap.

I would still be thrilled with this deal if the 'worst case' of 0 titles and all 3 guys leaving. Knowing we gave ourselves a legit shot at a title for 2 years. Probably title favorties for 2 years... something that comes along every 25 years maybe?

[Sharcm1]

I will wait to give a final opinion about the trade for a few years. At first we liked the KG and PP trade until two years later and it backfired completely.

Harden is a great player. He has been great for us. But that’s regular season. If they win a championship this year or next then the trade was worth it no matter the outcome of the picks in the future.

If they don’t win this season. And don’t win next season. And the big three opt to leave the nets then the trade was a massive failure as we will be giving Houston years worth of lottery picks. No free agents are going to come here after that too. The team will not have won and have no future for a longer time that the Celtics trade.

So still I cannot judge the trade as still the outcome has not been determined. Was this trade good if the second scenario happens? I would say no. Some might say yes.

[HardenGoat]

The outcome of not trading for him is he joins a top rival team in the East and we move forward with Lavert (who could die), Allen, and Prince. We could do a trade by deadline using a FRP or two but not sure who we use as salary fillers or who we get. Aaron Gordon cost FRP and 20 million filler, and a point guard (Rondo?) We would then bank on Durant and Kyrie carrying us this season but Durant would be out 6 weeks and then Kyrie would be paired with (Rondo) to carry us hopefully without taking any of those personal days. Griffin would consider his options based on who is leading at buyout time, we can't rule out he goes to Hardens team cause with Durant out that long we would not be leading anything. LMA/Drummond would never have been in our discussions, we would have just hoped they went west. Our seeding at this time would be debatable but I think we can at least agree it would be quite a bit lower, and our title chances would not be as high, and first seed would most likely have Harden on it.

[MGrand15]

It's pretty wild that Musa and Rodi are already out of the league. After Rodi's rookie year, I would've bet good money on him being a really good roleplayer for a long time.

Don't think it's just legal issues either which is weird.