Tiers of #1 Draft Pick Prospects

[pipfan]

It is VERY rare where there are 2 really top prospects in a draft (KD and Oden being the last-Ja would not count). How would you break them down, into tiered levels based on the consensus on them before the draft?

GOAT Tier-KAJ, LBJ, Duncan, Shaq, Sampson, Ewing, Walton, Wilt, Magic, Oscar, Robinson, maybe Hakeem
You knew you had a legend there for the taking. All of them worked out, except for Sampson (Walton was clearly on the path)

HoF bound-Webber, AD, Oden (and KD), Zion, LJ, Yao, Iverson, Manning

All Star prospects-Rose, Blake G, Wall, Simmons, Wiggins, Towns, Irving, Howard, Brand, Glen Rob, Coleman, Daugherty, Worthy

Solid picks, but not super excited-Fultz, Edwards, Ayton, Bargs, Bogut, KBrown, KMart, Joe Smith, Pervis E

Can I postpone the pick until next year? Bennett, Kandyman

How did I do, on the modern picks?

[falcolombardi]

i remember blake griffin, simmons and wall having huge hype. not goat level hype but "future mvp player" hype

simmons in particular was sold often as "lebron but bigger, faster, stronger(without jumper*)" whether it was right there was serious hype

[Im Your Father]

I would put Kyrie a tier down. He wasn’t particularly hyped especially after he played so few games.

He was really spectacular in his extremely short stint at Duke though.

[prolific passer]

Oden is HOF bound?

[pipfan]

Oden was a HUGE prospect at OSU. KD was seen as a sure thing, and no one thought anything of Port passing him over for Oden.

Hard to remember on Irving-he was the consensus #1, but in a weak draft

[Doctor MJ]

I think it's really hard to make an all-time list here because of how much things have changed.

Oscar Robertson was the GOAT Offensive player in all of history in his rookie NBA season after being the best player in college all 3 seasons, which means he was probably better at leading offenses in colleges than anyone in the pros was at that time. Awfully hard to top that.

As an overall prospect, Lew Alcindor probably takes the cake. Dude completely owned college basketball and was argued to be the best player in the world while still at UCLA - he wasn't quite that good yet, but he was close, and he'd quickly prove his prospect status was justified.

Obviously guys like Wilt & Walton deserve mentions here too.

Moving on to the '80s, when things get a bit more like today, I'd say the two big prospects of the '80s were Ralph Sampson and Patrick Ewing.

In the '90s, Shaq & Duncan were the two biggies.

In the '00s it was LeBron followed by the Oden/Durant duo.

In the '10s, AD & Zion, with a shout out to Luka.

[picko]

Oden is HOF bound?

It's based on expectations prior to the draft. Oden was as hyped as any number one draft pick this century, outside LeBron.

[Texas Chuck]

Oden is HOF bound?

It's based on expectations prior to the draft. Oden was as hyped as any number one draft pick this century, outside LeBron.

more than AD?


Also, for some of our older posters and/or historians, how big of a deal was Magic in real time? I feel like he was another pretty can't miss guy coming into the league, but I was too young to have a sense of it as it happened.

[Doctor MJ]

Oden is HOF bound?

It's based on expectations prior to the draft. Oden was as hyped as any number one draft pick this century, outside LeBron.

more than AD?


Also, for some of our older posters and/or historians, how big of a deal was Magic in real time? I feel like he was another pretty can't miss guy coming into the league, but I was too young to have a sense of it as it happened.

This is before my time as well, but what I can say is that there was a lot of disagreement about Magic being able to play whatever-the-hell-position-that-guy-plays in the NBA. The way Magic broke paradigms also left some scouts skeptical.

I believe the Lakers also thought it was a tough choice between Magic and Moncrief for the #1 pick.

EDIT: Also I remember much debate about AD. I personally was higher on AD than Oden, but many thought he was too slight a frame to be a defensive anchor and it was generally assumed that Oden had more offensive potential.

[bluestang302]

My recollection is that Wiggins was thought to be a sure-thing next LeBron/Kobe type of player. I also remember a similar hype for OJ Mayo, who obviously wasn't the first pick.

In 2002, Jay Williams was thought to be a sure-thing, certainly a multiple all-star. Personally, I remember some concerns about Yao. Many felt he may just be another Rik Smits, or worse. His worldwide marketing appeal and unique size made him go first more so than assurance that he would great.

Coleman and Webber were both thought to be a possible GOAT power forward. LJ a little less so, more because of his size. He was projected as a Barkley type at best, but Coleman and Webber were seen as the prototype perfect power forward. Glenn Robinson was a sure-thing, as well. It was thought by most that he would be an absolute beast. Michael Beasley was a similar prospect.

[picko]

Oden is HOF bound?

It's based on expectations prior to the draft. Oden was as hyped as any number one draft pick this century, outside LeBron.

more than AD?

Comparable, AD and Zion are in that category clearly below LeBron but tremendously hyped. I thought the hype around Oden was higher.

[jdzimme3]

It's based on expectations prior to the draft. Oden was as hyped as any number one draft pick this century, outside LeBron.

more than AD?

Comparable, AD and Zion are in that category clearly below LeBron but tremendously hyped. I thought the hype around Oden was higher.

Agree, oden had significantly more hype than AD.

[penbeast0]

It is VERY rare where there are 2 really top prospects in a draft (KD and Oden being the last-Ja would not count). How would you break them down, into tiered levels based on the consensus on them before the draft?

GOAT Tier-KAJ, LBJ, Duncan, Shaq, Sampson, Ewing, Walton, Wilt, Magic, Oscar, Robinson, maybe Hakeem
You knew you had a legend there for the taking. All of them worked out, except for Sampson (Walton was clearly on the path)

HoF bound-Webber, AD, Oden (and KD), Zion, LJ, Yao, Iverson, Manning

All Star prospects-Rose, Blake G, Wall, Simmons, Wiggins, Towns, Irving, Howard, Brand, Glen Rob, Coleman, Daugherty, Worthy

Solid picks, but not super excited-Fultz, Edwards, Ayton, Bargs, Bogut, KBrown, KMart, Joe Smith, Pervis E

Can I postpone the pick until next year? Bennett, Kandyman

How did I do, on the modern picks?

I will say there are two standouts that to me are wrong. (a) Brad Daugherty was considered an extremely weak 1st pick, so weak that Philly dealt the #1 pick to Cleveland for Roy Hinson. I don't think most of the next level down guys get disrespected that much. (b) Pervis Ellison was considered a terrific prospect, on the level of Coleman or Brand; he (like Walton) just couldn't stay healthy.

[giberish]

It is VERY rare where there are 2 really top prospects in a draft (KD and Oden being the last-Ja would not count). How would you break them down, into tiered levels based on the consensus on them before the draft?

GOAT Tier-KAJ, LBJ, Duncan, Shaq, Sampson, Ewing, Walton, Wilt, Magic, Oscar, Robinson, maybe Hakeem
You knew you had a legend there for the taking. All of them worked out, except for Sampson (Walton was clearly on the path)

HoF bound-Webber, AD, Oden (and KD), Zion, LJ, Yao, Iverson, Manning

All Star prospects-Rose, Blake G, Wall, Simmons, Wiggins, Towns, Irving, Howard, Brand, Glen Rob, Coleman, Daugherty, Worthy

Solid picks, but not super excited-Fultz, Edwards, Ayton, Bargs, Bogut, KBrown, KMart, Joe Smith, Pervis E

Can I postpone the pick until next year? Bennett, Kandyman

How did I do, on the modern picks?

I'd argue Bargs was really down at the bottom tier. Everyone hated the top of the 2006 draft at the time (and was drooling for Oden who would have been a landslide #1 without the rule change).

Wiggins is a tier too high as well. He had a lot of HS hype but did little at Kansas but shoot a lot. He only went #1 because Parker had essentially the same rep but looked less athletic and Embiid - who had moved well past both - had massive injury issues. Wiggins really backed into the #1 pick spot with less enthusiasm then guys like Ayton, Fultz or Bogut. If Embiid were healthy he would have been seen as the All-Star prospect level, but Wiggins wasn't close to that by the draft. Talk of big Wiggins hype was from HS only.

AD was easily the top prospect of the 2010's. Though with the 1 and done limitations it's tough to get to the GOAT tier so maybe 2nd tier is where he's at. Luka should have been right with AD as the top 2010's prospect, but way too many people felt he'd peaked at 18.

[Time for Change]

Yeah I agree on Bargs being bottom tier, and I’d put Edwards there as well. If we’re going on predraft hype there were huge red flags on Edwards and apparently they wanted to trade the pick but there were no takers. Fultz had a number of red flags too, he had a bit of hype but it seemed entirely unwarranted given how terrible his college team performed.

There’s also the opposite situation where there is an obvious legend there for the taking and then the dumb GMs don’t pick him. Happened recently with Doncic, but I also had Chris Paul has the greatest PG prospect of all time when he was coming out and he wasn’t even the first PG picked.