Draft Thread Part 2

[OAKLEY_2]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

ya i'm high on Mobley and Suggs. Barnes and Moody look good too. surprised Keon Johnson is that low.

what were Kuminga and Green's WS/48?

Kispert-Mobley-Mitchell. Bumping Cade to 4th selection...

[Dalek]

I struggle a bit with this metric in that all teams play different styles. A fast-paced offense with tons of possessions is likely going to have more win-shares especially if you are stacked and play in a weak conference (see Gonzaga). A team like Florida State will likely have low win-shares because they grind possessions more and play in the very tough SEC. Plus, if you are a star on a bad team the high usage and defensive gameplanning you face will impact your win-shares negatively more (see Cade and James Bouknight).

I am probably more curious about when two teammates are on the court like Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer, or Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell or Wagner and Isaiah Livers. From that end you can see relative on-court impact compared to the people they share the floor with the most.

It's results driven. Basically, no matter what style teams play the results favour players who rack up that baseline value. You can make an argument for why you think a player might be an outlier, but they'll still be an outlier if they succeed to a top 15 player in any year. It's more a way to consider ceilings, which tend to get ridiculous every draft cycle.

I guess it is fair if it takes into account the team results over style of play. Any chance you can add the numbers for these teammates. I am curious who was more valuable:

Keon Johnson
Jaden Springer

Jared Butler
Davion Mitchell

Franz Wagner
Isaiah Livers

[Ell Curry]

Do you guys think Ujiri and Webster would consider trading the pick for a star? Let’s say we end up with the 1-3 pick. Do we draft Cade/Mobley/Suggs and call it a day, or do we entertain offers for disgruntled stars in a larger package, like Karl Towns Jr, Brad Beal, etc?

Zero percent chance, partially due to it being pretty likely that all 4 of Cade/Green/Suggs/Mobley end up better than KAT and Beal.

I think we'd probably trade any pick but #1 for Towns. Do a Lowry sign and trade for say Pat Bev and #27 (we send the 45 or 46th pick to them) and then we send Pat Bev, the #2 or #3 and the #27 and Boucher for Towns.

Towns-Siakam-OG-Trent-VanVleet is a top 4 team in the East and everyone is locked up for years and between 22 and 27. Masai knows how to build a bench with meagre assets, and that team would be a handful with upside.

I don't think the Wolves would do it, I think they'd want a 2nd major asset and we wouldn't want to part with VanVleet, much less OG or Siakam.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think you're forgetting Tre Mann and Dosunmu, their WS/48 were also pretty high IIRC.

There's probably a number of guys who other people think of as lotto picks that I didn't include.

You're right about Ayo (.210). Here's Tre Mann (.172)

I think age is an important factor too as you said. Using Tre and Ayo as comparables:

Tre Mann at 20 - .172 WS/40, 19.8 P/40
Ayo Dosunmu at 20 - .154 WS/40, 19.8 P/40

Age is important to consider, but I used draft year for a reason.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

ya i'm high on Mobley and Suggs. Barnes and Moody look good too. surprised Keon Johnson is that low.

what were Kuminga and Green's WS/48?

Kispert-Mobley-Mitchell. Bumping Cade to 4th selection...

Lmao.


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[Jerry Lucas]

Do you guys think Ujiri and Webster would consider trading the pick for a star? Let’s say we end up with the 1-3 pick. Do we draft Cade/Mobley/Suggs and call it a day, or do we entertain offers for disgruntled stars in a larger package, like Karl Towns Jr, Brad Beal, etc?

Zero percent chance, partially due to it being pretty likely that all 4 of Cade/Green/Suggs/Mobley end up better than KAT and Beal.

I think we'd probably trade any pick but #1 for Towns. Do a Lowry sign and trade for say Pat Bev and #27 (we send the 45 or 46th pick to them) and then we send Pat Bev, the #2 or #3 and the #27 and Boucher for Towns.

Towns-Siakam-OG-Trent-VanVleet is a top 4 team in the East and everyone is locked up for years and between 22 and 27. Masai knows how to build a bench with meagre assets, and that team would be a handful with upside.

I don't think the Wolves would do it, I think they'd want a 2nd major asset and we wouldn't want to part with VanVleet, much less OG or Siakam.

Trading Green/Suggs/Mobley, on top of Boucher and another 1st for KAT, is the type of bad trade where 5-10 years down the road Raps fans and even general NBA fans would all wonder if Masai and Bobby legit lost their minds.

Hypothetically let's say Jalen Green. You're giving up an athletic freak three level scoring machine who has future hall of famer written all over him and is exactly what this team needs, for a star big in a league where modern contenders aren't built around bigs anymore. Probably one of the worst trade ideas I've ever seen, even if it's straight up.

Even if you're looking at this purely from a team needs standpoint, we need a go to scorer way more than we need a C. Also with a FVV-GTJ-OG-Siakam-KAT starting 5 who is the go to scorer on this team? If it's KAT I mean I guess that's fine if you wanna be mediocre but modern contenders aren't built around star bigs being go to scorers.

[RapsFanInOhio]

My personal board as of right now:
Cunningham
Mobley - moved him back in front of Green. His defense is really good
Green - better fit for this roster than Suggs
Suggs - his ceiling seems limited to me moreso than the others above him
Kuminga - I think we miss out on him no matter what because of how the draft falls
Moses Moody - for us, I’m taking the chance on a big wing scorer.
Giddey - the athleticism and shooting are huge question marks but he’s big and the playmaking will translate
Barnes - If he could shoot, he would be ahead of Kuminga
Keon Johnson - could rise based on his measurables. Is the shot broken?
Kispert - He could rise on our boards. Can he play SG? Probably with OG and Siakam. Think we probably have him lower but if he can play passable defense I wouldn’t mind this at all.
Jalen Johnson - Can the 3 translate?

I’m not high on Bouknight or Mann but they could both rise depending on measurables.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I guess it is fair if it takes into account the team results over style of play. Any chance you can add the numbers for these teammates. I am curious who was more valuable:

Keon Johnson .124
Jaden Springer .180

Jared Butler .239
Davion Mitchell .215

Franz Wagner .210
Isaiah Livers .196

As I said earlier, having a >.200 WS/48 doesn't really mean anything predictive. Loads of really bad NBA players and draft busts had enormous numbers. It just seems like not too many really great NBA players had <.200.

[Jerry Lucas]

My personal board as of right now:
Cunningham
Mobley - moved him back in front of Green. His defense is really good
Green - better fit for this roster than Suggs
Suggs - his ceiling seems limited to me moreso than the others above him
Kuminga - I think we miss out on him no matter what because of how the draft falls
Moses Moody - for us, I’m taking the chance on a big wing scorer.
Giddey - the athleticism and shooting are huge question marks but he’s big and the playmaking will translate
Barnes - If he could shoot, he would be ahead of Kuminga
Keon Johnson - could rise based on his measurables. Is the shot broken?
Kispert - He could rise on our boards. Can he play SG? Probably with OG and Siakam. Think we probably have him lower but if he can play passable defense I wouldn’t mind this at all.
Jalen Johnson - Can the 3 translate?

I’m not high on Bouknight or Mann but they could both rise depending on measurables.

I would take Mann and Bouknight over both Johnsons, Kispert, Barnes and Giddey. Their offensive upsides as go to scorers are way too high to pass on for size, whereas a lot of the bigger guys on your draft board do not possess this upside. And unlike guys like Cam Thomas whose major defensive problems are real concerns, Mann and Bouknight's minor defensive issues are more about consistency which can easily be fixed.

[VanWest82]

If we stay in the 7-9 range my three top picks are 1. Mitchell, 2. Kispert, 3. Giddey, in that order.

Each of those guys brings something that makes us better, and they all look like winners which I always feel gets underrated.

[Ell Curry]

Zero percent chance, partially due to it being pretty likely that all 4 of Cade/Green/Suggs/Mobley end up better than KAT and Beal.

I think we'd probably trade any pick but #1 for Towns. Do a Lowry sign and trade for say Pat Bev and #27 (we send the 45 or 46th pick to them) and then we send Pat Bev, the #2 or #3 and the #27 and Boucher for Towns.

Towns-Siakam-OG-Trent-VanVleet is a top 4 team in the East and everyone is locked up for years and between 22 and 27. Masai knows how to build a bench with meagre assets, and that team would be a handful with upside.

I don't think the Wolves would do it, I think they'd want a 2nd major asset and we wouldn't want to part with VanVleet, much less OG or Siakam.

Trading Green/Suggs/Mobley, on top of Boucher and another 1st for KAT, is the type of bad trade where 5-10 years down the road Raps fans and even general NBA fans would all wonder if Masai and Bobby legit lost their minds.

Hypothetically let's say Jalen Green. You're giving up an athletic freak three level scoring machine who has future hall of famer written all over him and is exactly what this team needs, for a star big in a league where modern contenders aren't built around bigs anymore. Probably one of the worst trade ideas I've ever seen, even if it's straight up.

Even if you're looking at this purely from a team needs standpoint, we need a go to scorer way more than we need a C. Also with a FVV-GTJ-OG-Siakam-KAT starting 5 who is the go to scorer on this team? If it's KAT I mean I guess that's fine if you wanna be mediocre but modern contenders aren't built around star bigs being go to scorers.

I have no idea if Green is a hall of famer (certainly looks like a 25 point a game guy) but Towns has been between 7th and 16th in win shares the last 4 years, we're all dying for a stretch 5 to open up the court for Siakam and Towns is 25 which is about perfect for us to contend in 2-3 years when Siakam and FVV are 28/29, OG is 25 and Trent is 24. That's five 15+ point scorers starting and the worst shooter by far is Siakam. End of games would still be a problem, no question, but we'd be a top 4 team in the East and a bench of Birch-Boucher-Flynn with a microwave scorer type at the 2 who can be acquired like the Jazz did with Clarkson and playing him instead of Trent is always an option.

I think we'd do this unless Masai agrees with Jimmy Butler that he's "soft as baby ****." A 25 year old 25-10-5 guy who is lights out from 3, even if he's just Nikola Vucevic + 15% is worth a top 4 pick for a team like us that isn't a free agent destination, and the Towns-Siakam-OG frontcourt screams 50 wins to me with Van Vleet and Trent being solid at the guard spots.

[Bruin]

If we stay in the 7-9 range my three top picks are 1. Mitchell, 2. Kispert, 3. Giddey, in that order.

Each of those guys brings something that makes us better, and they all look like winners which I always feel gets underrated.

You’d waste the pick on Kispert? Hes basically Joe Harris. Why use a high pick on that

[gojoorange]

I think we'd probably trade any pick but #1 for Towns. Do a Lowry sign and trade for say Pat Bev and #27 (we send the 45 or 46th pick to them) and then we send Pat Bev, the #2 or #3 and the #27 and Boucher for Towns.

Towns-Siakam-OG-Trent-VanVleet is a top 4 team in the East and everyone is locked up for years and between 22 and 27. Masai knows how to build a bench with meagre assets, and that team would be a handful with upside.

I don't think the Wolves would do it, I think they'd want a 2nd major asset and we wouldn't want to part with VanVleet, much less OG or Siakam.

Trading Green/Suggs/Mobley, on top of Boucher and another 1st for KAT, is the type of bad trade where 5-10 years down the road Raps fans and even general NBA fans would all wonder if Masai and Bobby legit lost their minds.

Hypothetically let's say Jalen Green. You're giving up an athletic freak three level scoring machine who has future hall of famer written all over him and is exactly what this team needs, for a star big in a league where modern contenders aren't built around bigs anymore. Probably one of the worst trade ideas I've ever seen, even if it's straight up.

Even if you're looking at this purely from a team needs standpoint, we need a go to scorer way more than we need a C. Also with a FVV-GTJ-OG-Siakam-KAT starting 5 who is the go to scorer on this team? If it's KAT I mean I guess that's fine if you wanna be mediocre but modern contenders aren't built around star bigs being go to scorers.

I have no idea if Green is a hall of famer (certainly looks like a 25 point a game guy) but Towns has been between 7th and 16th in win shares the last 4 years, we're all dying for a stretch 5 to open up the court for Siakam and Towns is 25 which is about perfect for us to contend in 2-3 years when Siakam and FVV are 28/29, OG is 25 and Trent is 24. That's five 15+ point scorers starting and the worst shooter by far is Siakam. End of games would still be a problem, no question, but we'd be a top 4 team in the East and a bench of Birch-Boucher-Flynn with a microwave scorer type at the 2 who can be acquired like the Jazz did with Clarkson and playing him instead of Trent is always an option.

I think we'd do this unless Masai agrees with Jimmy Butler that he's "soft as baby ****." A 25 year old 25-10-5 guy who is lights out from 3, even if he's just Nikola Vucevic + 15% is worth a top 4 pick for a team like us that isn't a free agent destination, and the Towns-Siakam-OG frontcourt screams 50 wins to me with Van Vleet and Trent being solid at the guard spots.

I would trade anyone outside of Cunningham in this draft for Towns. No question about it. He is one of the most elite offensive bigs ever.

[VanWest82]

If we stay in the 7-9 range my three top picks are 1. Mitchell, 2. Kispert, 3. Giddey, in that order.

Each of those guys brings something that makes us better, and they all look like winners which I always feel gets underrated.

You’d waste the pick on Kispert? Hes basically Joe Harris. Why use a high pick on that

I don't know if he'll turn out to be as good of a shooter as Harris but Kispert has a much better all around game. He can run PnR. He's effective attacking close outs. He's a good decision maker with the ball. And he's not a sieve on defense.

Raps need offense. Kispert helps our offense. The other guys being discussed in that range all come with huge red flags.

[Ell Curry]

Eve

I would trade anyone outside of Cunningham in this draft for Towns. No question about it. He is one of the most elite offensive bigs ever.[/quote]

I can certainly see the argument for taking Mobley to fill the 5 spot, Green or Suggs for the 2 and using the I think 18M in cap space or so on a young RFA we're in love with at the other spot, but I think the Siakam-OG-VanVleet timeline and on-court fit is just too good to pass up unless Masai thinks one of those guys is an absolute lock to be a top 25 guy by year 3.

[gojoorange]

I would trade anyone outside of Cunningham in this draft for Towns. No question about it. He is one of the most elite offensive bigs ever.

I can certainly see the argument for taking Mobley to fill the 5 spot, Green or Suggs for the 2 and using the I think 18M in cap space or so on a young RFA we're in love with at the other spot, but I think the Siakam-OG-VanVleet timeline and on-court fit is just too good to pass up unless Masai thinks one of those guys is an absolute lock to be a top 25 guy by year 3.

Agreed. If we could somehow keep that core and add Towns that's a no brainer to me. He would unlock the offence and increase the ceiling of every other player. Defensively he has struggled but has looked much better in stretches this season.

I'm just not sure what Mobley projects to be. He wasn't as dominant as AD in college but he seems to project better than Marvin Bagley. If he lands somewhere in the middle that's still not as good as Towns and that's at least 5 years out.

[Jerry Lucas]

I think we'd probably trade any pick but #1 for Towns. Do a Lowry sign and trade for say Pat Bev and #27 (we send the 45 or 46th pick to them) and then we send Pat Bev, the #2 or #3 and the #27 and Boucher for Towns.

Towns-Siakam-OG-Trent-VanVleet is a top 4 team in the East and everyone is locked up for years and between 22 and 27. Masai knows how to build a bench with meagre assets, and that team would be a handful with upside.

I don't think the Wolves would do it, I think they'd want a 2nd major asset and we wouldn't want to part with VanVleet, much less OG or Siakam.

Trading Green/Suggs/Mobley, on top of Boucher and another 1st for KAT, is the type of bad trade where 5-10 years down the road Raps fans and even general NBA fans would all wonder if Masai and Bobby legit lost their minds.

Hypothetically let's say Jalen Green. You're giving up an athletic freak three level scoring machine who has future hall of famer written all over him and is exactly what this team needs, for a star big in a league where modern contenders aren't built around bigs anymore. Probably one of the worst trade ideas I've ever seen, even if it's straight up.

Even if you're looking at this purely from a team needs standpoint, we need a go to scorer way more than we need a C. Also with a FVV-GTJ-OG-Siakam-KAT starting 5 who is the go to scorer on this team? If it's KAT I mean I guess that's fine if you wanna be mediocre but modern contenders aren't built around star bigs being go to scorers.

I have no idea if Green is a hall of famer (certainly looks like a 25 point a game guy) but Towns has been between 7th and 16th in win shares the last 4 years, we're all dying for a stretch 5 to open up the court for Siakam and Towns is 25 which is about perfect for us to contend in 2-3 years when Siakam and FVV are 28/29, OG is 25 and Trent is 24. That's five 15+ point scorers starting and the worst shooter by far is Siakam. End of games would still be a problem, no question, but we'd be a top 4 team in the East and a bench of Birch-Boucher-Flynn with a microwave scorer type at the 2 who can be acquired like the Jazz did with Clarkson and playing him instead of Trent is always an option.

I think we'd do this unless Masai agrees with Jimmy Butler that he's "soft as baby ****." A 25 year old 25-10-5 guy who is lights out from 3, even if he's just Nikola Vucevic + 15% is worth a top 4 pick for a team like us that isn't a free agent destination, and the Towns-Siakam-OG frontcourt screams 50 wins to me with Van Vleet and Trent being solid at the guard spots.

So basically what I'm getting from this is KAT is a top 10-20 player in the league who is a big, in a league where serious contenders can't compete if you build around a C as your go to scorer. Where has building around KAT led the TWolves? They couldn't even make it work with Jimmy who is better than any Raptor since Kawhi, and is even the type of go to scorer you can realistically expect to win a championship with. On paper KAT and Jimmy should have worked, not sure why you think KAT will work with lesser pieces here. And KAT giving us 50 wins in the regular season means nothing if he's not gonna make us serious contenders to win it all.

Also, FVV and Trent Jr is not a winning backcourt lmao even with a half ass bandaid fix attempt to acquire a Clarkson type as a fake go to scorer. The go to scorer on a legit contender is at the 1/2/3 spot in the lineup, and is also a primary initiator and the team's best player.

[Los_29]

Do you guys think Ujiri and Webster would consider trading the pick for a star? Let’s say we end up with the 1-3 pick. Do we draft Cade/Mobley/Suggs and call it a day, or do we entertain offers for disgruntled stars in a larger package, like Karl Towns Jr, Brad Beal, etc?

Zero percent chance, partially due to it being pretty likely that all 4 of Cade/Green/Suggs/Mobley end up better than KAT and Beal.

I wouldn't be so confident they'll be better. Towns was a #1 pick and Beal was #3. It's actually highly unlikely, nearly impossible that all 4 become better than those two. When has a top 4 ever been that strong in the history of the NBA?

With that said, it'd be a huge mistake to trade the pick for a star. This team isn't ready for that yet plus a draft pick offers much better cap flexibility as opposed to trading for a star who will most likely be making max money.

Keep accumulating assets. I think the FO can get some sneaky solid bench players with their SRP's this year as well. We're in a good position right now.

[Jerry Lucas]

[DELETE] Double post

[Mark_83]

If we stay at pick seven I think it's going to be either Keon, Davion, Moody, or Wagner. Those aren't necessarily the guys I want but they fit Masai's M.O. out of the group of players likely to be available.

Side bar, Quentin Crimes is an interesting player in the second. He's in the top 10 in both defensive and offensive win shares. Being compared to Josh Hart, who Masai tried to acquire. Only problem is we already have 2 development SG (Trent, Harris), and might add another guard at pick 7.