Draft Thread Part 2

[Karanpal]

If we stay at 7 these are my top 3

Scottie Barnes- kid affects the game in so many ways it's special to watch. Shooting is the big concern but I think it's much easier to correct since his form isn't too bad.

James bouknight- his athleticism is being underrated. His confidence in scoring is elite in my eyes. If you look at kwahi he isn't a natural passer but he becomes a player maker because of his ability to attract doubles and I think bouknight can playmake in that way

Jalen Johnson- I think he has top 3 potential in this draft. I think the concerns of his off court issues are overblown and he has all the tools to be an all star

[Psubs]

Even that draft doesn’t have a player as good as towns.

Family guy really found something with that mystery box skit.

The top of the 2016 looks a little overrrated now though no?

Who in that draft ended up better than Towns?

Jamal Murray is better than KAT not much elaboration needed there, him and Jokic have turned the Nuggets into a serious contender.

Simmons is a 3x all star and made an all nba team, KAT has made one less all star game and has had less team success.

Ingram is exactly the type of star wing built for the modern NBA, ZIon and Ingram will continue to grow together and turn around the Pelicans. KAT has more all star/all nba appearances for now but Ingram was a bit of a late bloomer.

Brown similarly to Ingram, him and Tatum have led the Celtics to more team success because they are the types of star wings that win in the modern NBA.

It's not all about individual accolades, especially because the Raps want to seriously contend again.

Is it a coincidence that Utah and Denver are still playing great without Mitchell and Murray?

[Dalek]

The guys I see popping on film lately are the high level passers. Giddey has been special to watch along with Sharife Cooper. One of the guys in the draft that just blows my mind with his passing is Jason Preston from Ohio.

Even crazier is his story. He took his team a couple rounds into the tournament, but how he even got to Ohio is crazy. This guy went pretty much from rec league level mix tape to in the draft conversation in 3 years:

His story which is worth a listen:

Spoiler:

Read on Twitter

I think his funky game is very similar to Lamelo Ball. He averaged 15 PPG/ 7 Rebs/ 7 Asts on 50/40/60 shooting splits (his freethrow shooting taking a dip this year - usually he was in the 70s). He is only 6'4" but he see the game in a special way and is just a natural hooper with a feel for the game:

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Read on Twitter

I don't know where he fits in the draft, but this kid can play ad has major style and big game presence.

[Indeed]

I’m probably the biggest pro-Giddey supporter on here. I think the kid has star potential. The people throwing the Shaun Livingston comparisons are the same people who where comparing SGA to Delon Wright. Just a lazy lazy comparison. Anyways enough about the comparisons, let talk about Giddey.

The kid is only 18 and won’t be 19 until October, and what he did in the NBL considering his age is VERY impressive. The NBL is a grown man league, and is widely known as one of the more physical leagues in the world, it’s not easy for a teenager to play in that league just ask Lamelo Ball, and RJ Hampton.

Lamelo Ball
MPG 31.3
PPG 17.0
RPG 7.6
APG 6.8
TOV 2.5
SPG 1.6
BPG 0.1
FG 37.5 (16.7 attempts)
3FG 25 (6.7 attempts)
FT% 72.3

RJ Hampton
MPG 20.6
PPG 8.8
RPG 3.9
APG 2.4
TOV 1.5
SPG 1.1
BPG 0.3
FG 40.7 (8.2 attempts)
3FG 29.5 (2.5 attempts)
FT% 67.9

Josh Giddey
MPG 32.1
PPG 11.1
RPG 7.4
APG 7.6
TOV 3.3
SPG 1.1
BPG 0.5
FG 43.4 (9.5 attempts)
3FG 30.9 (3.5 attempts)
FT% 69.1

All 3 where 18 year old rookies in the NBL. Lamelo is on his way to becoming ROY, RJ has been turning it on since arriving in Orlando (11/5/2.5 his past 24 games, and 17/6/4 his past 6 games). Giddey has had a better season in the NBL than either of them. Am I saying Giddey>LaMelo Ball? Hell no, even during his struggles in the NBL the tools where apparent and he had a flare that you knew he would figure it lit eventually which is why scouts had him ranked so high.

It’s the same thing with Giddey, the tools are apparent which is why he had been soaring up the draft ranks and why the Raps sent their head scout to watch him. The kid is a 6’8 point guard who lead the league in assists, and is a triple double threat every single night in his league. Even though he lacks muscle and strength at the moment, he proved he could keep up with grown men and dominate at that. Even his jumper is showing tremendous growth. He started off just doing catch and shoot 3’s, but the past couple weeks he’s been doing a lot more pull ups, step backs, etc... I’m not worried about him jumper, once he gains more strength everything is going to fall into place for Josh Giddey.

It’s widely been known he’s the best passer in the draft, but his best skill might be controlling the pace of the game. When it’s all said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Giddey ends up being a top 3 player in this draft. He has really high potential, and IMO if he’s there at 7 I’m nabbing him (I wouldn’t be surprised if a team higher took him, I think his stock is going to sky rocket closer to the draft).

The biggest issue (already mentioned multiple times) is his defense.
From the clip
- He is slow to contest corner 3
- Goes under screen against PnR
- Not good at going through screens

He looks like Bargnani defense to me, so it is up to a team if they think they can hide his defensive issue. I think Toronto won't be interested

Watch on YouTube

[billy_hoyle]

The key word is "could"

Based on what I believe Cade (Ben Simmons who can actually shoot) and Green (Luka-lite) specifically will turn out to be (#1 guys that can win), I would never trade them for KAT.

Towns has played in the NBA. He's played in allstar games. We already know he's one of the top Cs in the league.

The other guys are mystery boxes.

I don't believe Cade and Green are mystery boxes. They are special talents IMO and more sure things than top draft prospects have generally been in weaker classes. They are as much mystery boxes to me as guys like LaMelo and Luka, when people ignored the obvious signs that they would be sure fire stars.

That's the thing, it's actually NOT obvious to know what will happen and who will turn into stars.

In a previous post you said your 2016 big board was:
1 Ingram
2 Murray
3 Brown
4 Hield
5 Simmons

You stated this draft reminds you of 2016, because of the very strong talent at the top.

You also state that you wouldn't trade any of the top 4 picks for KAT because that's terrible value from a talent perspective not even considering salary, FA etc.

So... Let's unpack this.

I would argue, as others have, that KAT would be selected #1 if he were added to the 2016 draft and it was re-drafted. He is better than those 5 players you listed (this doesn't even include the actual bust, Bender who was actually drafted 4th).

He is substantially better than Buddy Hield. That goes without saying right?

So, you would have had an opportunity to turn Hield into Towns and turned it down because the other guys 'could' be better. You had 5 chances and maybe three of them have similiar value (Brown, Ingram and Simmons). I think Denver needs to add assets to turn Murray into KAT. (You keep talking about Murray being a 50/40/90 guy... But KAT has had multiple 50/40/80+ seasons which I think is far more valuable/noteworthy coming from a stretch 5 than a 2 guard).

You also admitted to picking Hield over Simmons. Which is a terrible pick in retrospect.

You had a 20% bust rate on a 'top heavy' draft. Where the actual upside is basically KAT... The downside is...Hield, an average starter. To me, it seems like evidence in SUPPORT of trading the pick for KAT. 2016 presumably is the best example you had, and I say it argues the opposite of what you think it does.

You keep bringing up KATs inability to win as reason why he is not a difference maker.

Ingram... never won anything, even with better support players (Zion).

Hield... Never won anything.

Brown... One of many good players on loaded teams that were good, not great. Boston lost veteran talent (Horford, Irving and Hayward), and transitioned to Tatum and Brown as the high usage 'stars'. They have been very mediocre this year, so is he really a winner? Not even the best player on a 0.500 team.

Murray... Plays next to the MVP favorite.

Simmons... Plays next to an MVP runner-up.

Are Simmons and Murray really winners? They are certainly good players, but almost everyone categorically puts their teammates as the players that are the prime 'stars' that actually impact winning.

I guess to sum up... I agree with other posters that it's a pretty reasonable trade to get KAT with a top 4 pick this year...

It might not be the optimal route... But I'd bet there are a couple relative busts in the top 4...

No, I couldn't tell you who that will be...because it's NOT obvious before the draft.

[gojoorange]

What are you seeing that suggests Keon Johnson or Moses Moody can be NBA superstars?

Nothing. But no one Masai has drafted with Toronto looked like they were going to be "superstars" when they were picked. Johnson and Moody aren't even the players I want, as I said. They're just the players who I see as fitting Masai's type of players.

Fair enough, although I don't see that with Keon Johnson. I think Masai has shown that he will always try to draft BPA, which has equated to production over perceived upside. I think the case for drafting a superstar is so incredibly rare that it just makes sense to acquire the best assets you can.

It's true, Masai and his staff value players with strong analytics as well, which I forgot to include in my criteria. But that doesn't mean Masai picked these guys with the thought that they would be superstars. Poeltl was largely valued because analytics thought he was the safest bet to be an NBA player and not bust, not because he was expected to be a superstar. All those guys with high analytics (Delon, Pascal, Flynn) were projected to be role player types.

In fact, the player with the highest ceiling in that group was OG who had the worst analytics numbers of the five Raptors drafted. For a Freshman Moody's numbers are quite comparable to OG (who he has been compared to by some) when OG was already a Sophomore. Moody is a whole year younger and surpassed him in win shares and offensive rating, while coming within a few points of every other stat.

I am not sure how Masai projected those picks to end up. I think what they did see was success at the college level, coupled with the skills and character piece you mentioned earlier. That seems to have resulted in successful transition from college to the NBA. While the stats are only 1 piece, they seem to be an important piece to Masai.

I see your point on Moody but necessarily think he will be BPA at 7 or 8. I could see him being a good pick in the late lottery.

It would be foolish to look at any stat in a vacuum. If you're simply going to pick the player with the best PER or OFR then Luke Garza would be the number 1 pick, followed by Mobley, then Drew Timme.

Only one of these players has a PER as high as OG did in his draft year so by your criteria they're all out. Again, OG was the Raptors draft pick with the lowest PER but the highest upside. Moreover, Moody's PER is not only comparable to Cade's, but he has a higher WS per 40, if that's the criteria to judge a prospect on.

Heck, the player I've been pumping the most for the Raptors in a trade down scenario has been Isaiah Jackson, whose PER of 25.3 blows all those higher ranked guys out of the water, and I still wouldn't take him over Cade or Suggs.

PER is definitely not my criteria. There were many more stats that I listed that you left out.

Again, the stats I listed will not predict whether a player is going to be good or great. The other pieces are important too. However, having poor advanced stats is a good indicator for players that will not turn out. Which is my case against drafting Keon Johnson in the lottery.

[Los_29]

Damn, now the more I see Zaire Williams the more I get intrigued. Dude is 6'8 with a 6'11 wingspan and can dribble and score at all 3 levels. Wouldn't be surprised if ends up being the guy outside the top 5 that should have been top 5

He had a really, really bad freshmen year. I'm definitely not sold on him.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Yall are crazy to pass on Keon because of his shot lol. You can't teach athleticism or wingspan or instill a willingness to score. There is a lot more evidence that a shot can be improved once you get to the NBA level and get with shooting coaches.

OG came into the draft a terrible shooter. Shot 56% from the FT in college and was a 31% 3PT shooter with a bad jumpshot. Now he shoots 79% from the FT line and is a 40% 3PT shooter on high volume 3 years later. Were you envisioning that year one?

Only person I'm taking ahead of him outside of the top 4 is Kuminga if somehow the Barnes hype gets to the Magic

Keon is another example of the size thing. If he’s 6’6” / 6’7”, you can deal with working with that kind of shooting because he has the length to make up for it in other ways even if the shooting pans out. If he’s 6’4” or 6’3” and he can’t shoot, your upside is so limited.

The issue or risk with drafting any player than can’t shoot is that their upside is naturally limited unless they’re a next level type of worker.

Obviously it's hard for us have a lot of insight into this, and teams will know much more once they speak with high school and college coaches, etc. but everything I've seen and read suggests that Keon Johnson is an extremely hard worker - one of those first guy in the gym in the morning, last guy out-type work ethics.

[XTC]

Anyone else get Josh Howard (Dallas pre injury) vibes with Moses Moody?

[OAKLEY_2]

If we stay at 7 these are my top 3

Scottie Barnes- kid affects the game in so many ways it's special to watch. Shooting is the big concern but I think it's much easier to correct since his form isn't too bad.

James bouknight- his athleticism is being underrated. His confidence in scoring is elite in my eyes. If you look at kwahi he isn't a natural passer but he becomes a player maker because of his ability to attract doubles and I think bouknight can playmake in that way

Jalen Johnson- I think he has top 3 potential in this draft. I think the concerns of his off court issues are overblown and he has all the tools to be an all star

I'll put money down that Masai and Bobby avoid all three of those guys unless we end up 9th or 10th and Barnes is BPA.

[Dalek]

Anyone else get Josh Howard (Dallas pre injury) vibes with Moses Moody?

I can see that comp from his size and the way he shoots his leaners from mid range. Josh Howard had a similar middy game. I feel like Moody is bit of scorer in the mold of Allan Houston where he has that catch and shoot ability.

[Clutch0z24]

I’m probably the biggest pro-Giddey supporter on here. I think the kid has star potential. The people throwing the Shaun Livingston comparisons are the same people who where comparing SGA to Delon Wright. Just a lazy lazy comparison. Anyways enough about the comparisons, let talk about Giddey.

The kid is only 18 and won’t be 19 until October, and what he did in the NBL considering his age is VERY impressive. The NBL is a grown man league, and is widely known as one of the more physical leagues in the world, it’s not easy for a teenager to play in that league just ask Lamelo Ball, and RJ Hampton.

Lamelo Ball
MPG 31.3
PPG 17.0
RPG 7.6
APG 6.8
TOV 2.5
SPG 1.6
BPG 0.1
FG 37.5 (16.7 attempts)
3FG 25 (6.7 attempts)
FT% 72.3

RJ Hampton
MPG 20.6
PPG 8.8
RPG 3.9
APG 2.4
TOV 1.5
SPG 1.1
BPG 0.3
FG 40.7 (8.2 attempts)
3FG 29.5 (2.5 attempts)
FT% 67.9

Josh Giddey
MPG 32.1
PPG 11.1
RPG 7.4
APG 7.6
TOV 3.3
SPG 1.1
BPG 0.5
FG 43.4 (9.5 attempts)
3FG 30.9 (3.5 attempts)
FT% 69.1

All 3 where 18 year old rookies in the NBL. Lamelo is on his way to becoming ROY, RJ has been turning it on since arriving in Orlando (11/5/2.5 his past 24 games, and 17/6/4 his past 6 games). Giddey has had a better season in the NBL than either of them. Am I saying Giddey>LaMelo Ball? Hell no, even during his struggles in the NBL the tools where apparent and he had a flare that you knew he would figure it lit eventually which is why scouts had him ranked so high.

It’s the same thing with Giddey, the tools are apparent which is why he had been soaring up the draft ranks and why the Raps sent their head scout to watch him. The kid is a 6’8 point guard who lead the league in assists, and is a triple double threat every single night in his league. Even though he lacks muscle and strength at the moment, he proved he could keep up with grown men and dominate at that. Even his jumper is showing tremendous growth. He started off just doing catch and shoot 3’s, but the past couple weeks he’s been doing a lot more pull ups, step backs, etc... I’m not worried about him jumper, once he gains more strength everything is going to fall into place for Josh Giddey.

It’s widely been known he’s the best passer in the draft, but his best skill might be controlling the pace of the game. When it’s all said and done, I wouldn’t be surprised if Giddey ends up being a top 3 player in this draft. He has really high potential, and IMO if he’s there at 7 I’m nabbing him (I wouldn’t be surprised if a team higher took him, I think his stock is going to sky rocket closer to the draft).

The biggest issue (already mentioned multiple times) is his defense.
From the clip
- He is slow to contest corner 3
- Goes under screen against PnR
- Not good at going through screens

He looks like Bargnani defense to me, so it is up to a team if they think they can hide his defensive issue. I think Toronto won't be interested

Watch on YouTube

I agree his defense is bad, He is a great passer and could develop into a scorer eventually but its a Risk drafting him so high at 7....
He could be the next Lamelo/Luka (Doubt it) or he could be a Bust or just a decent player like a Rubio type....I would say he has more chance being a Rubio Than a Luka/LaMelo tho....Personally i would not take him with the 7th pick since i feel we have better talent on the board....If you have a 13-15th pick sure take a swinger on Giddey and hope he pans out....But i just don't see him being