Race for Ping Pong Balls

basketballRob · Post #1141 » by **basketballRob** » Thu May 13, 2021 2:36 am

RookieStar wrote:Evans parting gift for us?

We need AG to help out against the Pistons in a couple days.

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jonbob17 · Post #1142 » by **jonbob17** » Thu May 13, 2021 2:39 am

Wow...Cleveland with the double fault. Now we just need to win tie breaker with OKC and then hope for the best.

NEM · Post #1143 » by **NEM** » Thu May 13, 2021 2:46 am

jonbob17 wrote:Wow...Cleveland with the double fault. Now we just need to win tie breaker with OKC and then hope for the best.

There is no tiebreaker. Teams with the same record split the odds. Odd number of balls goes to a coin flip for one extra ball.

HayKee · Post #1144 » by **HayKee** » Thu May 13, 2021 2:49 am

THANK YOU BASED CAVS

Anti Chalmers · Post #1145 » by **Anti Chalmers** » Thu May 13, 2021 3:51 am

Nice gift from the Cavs. Don’t mess this up.

D J C · Post #1146 » by **D J C** » Thu May 13, 2021 4:30 am

Huge W for the Cavs! Tied for 3rd with OKC now and have 132 or 133 chances. More importantly, we can only slide back to 8 now and there’s a nearly 70% chance we get top 5 if we win the coin flip with OKC.

There’s still a chance for a 3–way tie for the 2nd best odds..

If the Heat lose to Philly and Milwaukee, and the Knicks beat San Antonio and Charlotte; the Heat will likely rest starters the final game vs Detroit as they’d have no seeding to play for.

That’s give us 135 chances, but more importantly an 80% chance for a top 5 pick if we win the coin flips.

basketballRob · Post #1147 » by **basketballRob** » Thu May 13, 2021 4:40 am

D J C wrote:Huge W for the Cavs! Tied for 3rd with OKC now and have 132 or 133 chances. More importantly, we can only slide back to 8 now and there’s a nearly 70% chance we get top 5 if we win the coin flip with OKC.

There’s still a chance for a 3–way tie for the 2nd best odds..

If the Heat lose to Philly and Milwaukee, and the Knicks beat San Antonio and Charlotte; the Heat will likely rest starters the final game vs Detroit as they’d have no seeding to play for.

That’s give us 135 chances, but more importantly an 80% chance for a top 5 pick if we win the coin flips.

If Philly wins I think they clinch the best record in the east, so they'll rest players for 2 games.

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shadrock · Post #1148 » by **shadrock** » Thu May 13, 2021 4:40 am

NEM wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:Wow...Cleveland with the double fault. Now we just need to win tie breaker with OKC and then hope for the best.

There is no tiebreaker. Teams with the same record split the odds. Odd number of balls goes to a coin flip for one extra ball.

The splitting of the extra ball IS the tiebreaker though... and it means EVERYTHING. Its what determines where you pick of you arent one of the lucky ones to get a top 4 selection.

basketballRob · Post #1149 » by **basketballRob** » Thu May 13, 2021 4:45 am

shadrock wrote:
NEM wrote:
jonbob17 wrote:Wow...Cleveland with the double fault. Now we just need to win tie breaker with OKC and then hope for the best.

There is no tiebreaker. Teams with the same record split the odds. Odd number of balls goes to a coin flip for one extra ball.

The splitting of the extra ball IS the tiebreaker though... and it means EVERYTHING. Its what determines where you pick of you arent one of the lucky ones to get a top 4 selection.

If you're 3rd you get 140 combinations, if you're 4th you get 125. So if they're tied, they'd split the 265. So the team that wins the coin toss would get 133, and the other team 132.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery
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Post #1150 » by **SOUL** » Thu May 13, 2021 5:02 am

basketballRob wrote:
D J C wrote:Huge W for the Cavs! Tied for 3rd with OKC now and have 132 or 133 chances. More importantly, we can only slide back to 8 now and there’s a nearly 70% chance we get top 5 if we win the coin flip with OKC.

There’s still a chance for a 3–way tie for the 2nd best odds..

If the Heat lose to Philly and Milwaukee, and the Knicks beat San Antonio and Charlotte; the Heat will likely rest starters the final game vs Detroit as they’d have no seeding to play for.

That’s give us 135 chances, but more importantly an 80% chance for a top 5 pick if we win the coin flips.
If Philly wins I think they clinch the best record in the east, so they'll rest players for 2 games.

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If they want to get to the finals having a better record overall is important too.

Post #1151 » by **Knightro** » Thu May 13, 2021 5:14 am

Philly losing to Miami tomorrow would be big because it would all but guarantee the Sixers play their guys at least the first game against Orlando.

KillMonger · Post #1152 » by **KillMonger** » Thu May 13, 2021 5:37 am

Knightro wrote:Philly losing to Miami tomorrow would be big because it would all but guarantee the Sixers play their guys at least the first game against Orlando.

Honestly I’d think we’d lose either way their bench is better than ours

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pepe1991 · Post #1153 » by **pepe1991** » Thu May 13, 2021 6:03 am

now we just need to beat Atlanta in second night of their back to back to ruin it up :lol:

GelbeWand09 · Post #1154 » by **GelbeWand09** » Thu May 13, 2021 6:13 am

Thanks Evan for the help :lol:

GelbeWand09 · Post #1155 » by **GelbeWand09** » Thu May 13, 2021 6:19 am

pepe1991 wrote:now we just need to beat Atlanta in second night of their back to back to ruin it up

Good thing is, Atlanta is a pretty deep team. Even if they rest some players, they should be better than us.

drsd · Post #1156 » by **drsd** » Thu May 13, 2021 6:59 am

drsd wrote:The computers have Cleveland winning another game for a 3/4 tie for Orlando and OKC.

WOW the computers are smart!

..

drsd · Post #1157 » by **drsd** » Thu May 13, 2021 7:01 am

pepe1991 · Post #1158 » by **pepe1991** » Thu May 13, 2021 7:11 am

drsd wrote:..

SO in other words, tiebreakers really make amazing difference of 0,0000099%

drsd · Post #1159 » by **drsd** » Thu May 13, 2021 7:49 am

Today's tankathon pull:
Orlando 2

Chicago 9

....

Orlando sits at #4
Orlando is a 1/2 game better than #4 Cleveland (GO CAVS!)
Orlando is a 1/2 game worse than #3 OKC

Chicago sits at #8
Chicago is 2 games better than #7 Toronto
Chicago is 1 1/2 games worse than #9 New Orleans
Chicago is 2 1/2 games out of a play-in slot with only 3-games left to play

The computers have the Magic finishing tied for 3/4 and the Bulls at 8.

..

drsd · Post #1160 » by **drsd** » Thu May 13, 2021 8:03 am

Detroit has:
Nuggets at Pistons for a 21.1% chance to win
Heat at Pistons for a 21.7% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Detroit to win one more game at 38.2%

OKC has:
Jazz at Thunder for a 14.3% chance to win
Clippers at Thunder for a 16.2% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for OKC to win one more game at 28.2%

As important, (if the above is true) the odds that EITHER Detroit or OKC wins one game is 55.6%

.....

In case Orlando does not lose-out to close this season.

Cleveland has:
Cavs at Wizards for a 31.4% chance to win
Cavs at Nets for a 13.9% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Cleveland to win one more game at 40.9%

Minnesota has:
Nuggets at T-wolves for a 29.3% chance to win
Celts at T-wolves for a 33.9% chance to win
Mavs at T-wolves for a 28.7% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Minnesota to win one more game at 66.7.9%

.....

And on the notion of Orlando losing-out.

Orlando has:
Magic at Hawks for a 24.8% chance to win
Magic at Sixers for a 14.1.9% chance to win
Magic at Sixers for a 13.9% chance to win
(if true) That places the chance for Orlando to LOSE-OUT at 55.6%
To match the above:
(if true) That places the chance for Orlando to win one more game at 44.4%