Who will be the most overrated player of the 2021 draft?

[clyde21]

I don't get the Mitchell hate either. Who couldn't use an elite perimeter defender who can shoot, let alone create his own shot because he's got elite burst. Even if you think his shooting is a mirage at worst he's a back up pg (rotation player), and if his shot is legit he fits next to any superstar and can be a legit 2nd probably 3rd option who is an elite defender.

doesn't make sense to take that type of player lotto, even if he does have a clear path to success in the NBA as a rotational piece, he's still an undersized guard who'll be a 23 year old rookie and isn't necessarily an elite playmaker or shooter on top of that...you need to aim way higher when you're picking that high...players like Mitchell are always available later in the draft.

[EMG518]

This thread won't age well with all the Mitchell love in my opinion.

I'm not convinced he even cracks a rotation.

[crows2]

Ziaire Williams. As I’ve said before, he’s the Knox/Reddish of this year’s draft.

[GSWFan1994]

I don't get the Mitchell hate either. Who couldn't use an elite perimeter defender who can shoot, let alone create his own shot because he's got elite burst. Even if you think his shooting is a mirage at worst he's a back up pg (rotation player), and if his shot is legit he fits next to any superstar and can be a legit 2nd probably 3rd option who is an elite defender.

doesn't make sense to take that type of player lotto, even if he does have a clear path to success in the NBA as a rotational piece, he's still an undersized guard who'll be a 23 year old rookie and isn't necessarily an elite playmaker or shooter on top of that...you need to aim way higher when you're picking that high...players like Mitchell are always available later in the draft.

Besides everything you wrote, what would be the "elite" defensive impact of a 6'1'' PG in the current NBA?

[bon]

I don't get the Mitchell hate. It's like people looked at his age and FT% and came to the conclusion he's going to underwhelm without having watched him play.

Is he a perfect player? No. He's a crappy rebounder and he doesn't get to the line as much as one would think he should. He's also one of the five best players in this draft today. You can't fluke all those step backs and jumpers off the dribble from different areas of the court. That's stuff that only happens when you work on your game A LOT and improve. He's also a genius level defender.

Mitchell is a can't miss prospect. If anything, playing in an egalitarian guard system at Baylor likely suppressed what he's actually capable of. Maybe he only becomes Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday, but he's a pretty good bet to be that level of player.

The size is the killer. If he had Smart or Jrue's measurements there wouldn't be much aversion to him in the top 8. Unfortunately he's 6'2 with short arms and doesn't have enough polish offensively to compensate. He'll be a solid pro but he's being mocked too high.

[Stillwater]

I don't get the Mitchell hate. It's like people looked at his age and FT% and came to the conclusion he's going to underwhelm without having watched him play.

Is he a perfect player? No. He's a crappy rebounder and he doesn't get to the line as much as one would think he should. He's also one of the five best players in this draft today. You can't fluke all those step backs and jumpers off the dribble from different areas of the court. That's stuff that only happens when you work on your game A LOT and improve. He's also a genius level defender.

Mitchell is a can't miss prospect. If anything, playing in an egalitarian guard system at Baylor likely suppressed what he's actually capable of. Maybe he only becomes Marcus Smart or Jrue Holiday, but he's a pretty good bet to be that level of player.

The size is the killer. If he had Smart or Jrue's measurements there wouldn't be much aversion to him in the top 8. Unfortunately he's 6'2 with short arms and doesn't have enough polish offensively to compensate. He'll be a solid pro but he's being mocked too high.

Lol at people acting as if he doesn't have more development left and at 23 hes a high floor role player. I bet he is easily the same level shooter as Dame or has the same offensive impact Isaiah had in Boston and actually plays on ball defense pestering bigger longer players just like he has for the past couple seasons.hes a little hyped based on the tournament and its true most like him go later but there are not any other older prospect in this draft that did more to justify a lottery selection and i think he is worth every penny.

[Onus]

I don't get the Mitchell hate either. Who couldn't use an elite perimeter defender who can shoot, let alone create his own shot because he's got elite burst. Even if you think his shooting is a mirage at worst he's a back up pg (rotation player), and if his shot is legit he fits next to any superstar and can be a legit 2nd probably 3rd option who is an elite defender.

doesn't make sense to take that type of player lotto, even if he does have a clear path to success in the NBA as a rotational piece, he's still an undersized guard who'll be a 23 year old rookie and isn't necessarily an elite playmaker or shooter on top of that...you need to aim way higher when you're picking that high...players like Mitchell are always available later in the draft.

At the backend of the lottery you can do a lot worse. Top 10 is probably too high but like 13 on who really cares if you take the 17th best prospect at 13. Take the guy who will actually be a rotation guy.

[Onus]

I don't get the Mitchell hate either. Who couldn't use an elite perimeter defender who can shoot, let alone create his own shot because he's got elite burst. Even if you think his shooting is a mirage at worst he's a back up pg (rotation player), and if his shot is legit he fits next to any superstar and can be a legit 2nd probably 3rd option who is an elite defender.

doesn't make sense to take that type of player lotto, even if he does have a clear path to success in the NBA as a rotational piece, he's still an undersized guard who'll be a 23 year old rookie and isn't necessarily an elite playmaker or shooter on top of that...you need to aim way higher when you're picking that high...players like Mitchell are always available later in the draft.

Besides everything you wrote, what would be the "elite" defensive impact of a 6'1'' PG in the current NBA?

He was able to guard cade pretty well. We see Fred Van Vleet make defensive plays at 6'0'' the same with CP3. Hell I've seen cp3 guard KD pretty well in the playoffs. Mitchell's burst allows him to beat anyone to a spot, he's going to be a pest. Is he going to be a defensive anchor no, but he'll be able to guard 1-3 pretty seamlessly. You can view him as a 3 and d guy and that's valuable.

[Monix]

Lowry has defensive impact at that size

[GSWFan1994]

Ok, let me see if I understood correctly: Davion Mitchel is a Lillard-esque shooter who also projects to be a top 5 defender at the PG position, all of this right out of the gates, as a rookie.

How is a prospect like that not talked about as a clear-cut top 1 pick?

[Stillwater]

Ok, let me see if I understood correctly: Davion Mitchel is a Lillard-esque shooter who also projects to be a top 5 defender at the PG position, all of this right out of the gates, as a rookie.

How is a prospect like that not talked about as a clear-cut top 1 pick?

I would not put it past him to become that guy fast.Situation will obviously dictate initial outcomes.
I can assure you there is nobody in any front office that should be delusional enough to think he has not proved
he can defend players bigger than him which will transfer at a NBA level.
Nobody is projecting him higher than the chalk 6 because he is old and short and they are not getting that
chatter about him same as they didnt for Donovan Mitchell LOL
The offensive impact is obvious he is an elite athlete and a highly skilled scorer without much negatives. He is a better shooter right now than Suggs for example and just as much the athlete.
I think he is a consideration for Toronto looking for a plug in
replacement for Lowry esp if sitting at 9 or after has little to think about if they are not blowing it up or trying to develop a
pg that is not ready.

[clyde21]

I don't get the Mitchell hate either. Who couldn't use an elite perimeter defender who can shoot, let alone create his own shot because he's got elite burst. Even if you think his shooting is a mirage at worst he's a back up pg (rotation player), and if his shot is legit he fits next to any superstar and can be a legit 2nd probably 3rd option who is an elite defender.

doesn't make sense to take that type of player lotto, even if he does have a clear path to success in the NBA as a rotational piece, he's still an undersized guard who'll be a 23 year old rookie and isn't necessarily an elite playmaker or shooter on top of that...you need to aim way higher when you're picking that high...players like Mitchell are always available later in the draft.

At the backend of the lottery you can do a lot worse. Top 10 is probably too high but like 13 on who really cares if you take the 17th best prospect at 13. Take the guy who will actually be a rotation guy.

it's never about "you can do a lot worse", it's about how much better I can do...no GM goes into the lotto thinking "well, i'll take this guy because I can do a lot worse"...no, they think about how they can maximize X pick...a guy like Cameron Johnson going 11th overall is fine because he's always had a clear path to success but was never gonna be more than an okay starter or rotational guy at his peak...to draft Johnson the Suns passed on Okeke, Herro, PJ just in the next 4 picks who have a much higher ceiling than what Johnson can bring potentially.

and I again, I'd much rather draft a guy like Deuce McBride in the 2nd than Mitchell in the lotto, not that McBride is better, but it's a value game...McBride who's the same type of player essentially can be had in the 2nd, I don't need to spend a lotto pick on Mitchell when a guy like McBride can be readily had 30 picks later.

[Nazrmohamed]

This thread won't age well with all the Mitchell love in my opinion.

I'm not convinced he even cracks a rotation.

Well that might not necessarily be his fault early on. Looks like most teams in the lottery have thier PGs locked up but I think hes gonna be a solid player I think. I never wanna say who's gonna be a star in the nba cuz its such a crap shoot but at the same time I don't see an argument as to why he couldn't be a starter down the line

[clyde21]

lol @ Mitchell being a Dame level shooter...wtf?

Mitchell can't even hit 65% of his FTs as a senior in college.

[Nazrmohamed]

doesn't make sense to take that type of player lotto, even if he does have a clear path to success in the NBA as a rotational piece, he's still an undersized guard who'll be a 23 year old rookie and isn't necessarily an elite playmaker or shooter on top of that...you need to aim way higher when you're picking that high...players like Mitchell are always available later in the draft.

At the backend of the lottery you can do a lot worse. Top 10 is probably too high but like 13 on who really cares if you take the 17th best prospect at 13. Take the guy who will actually be a rotation guy.

it's never about "you can do a lot worse", it's about how much better I can do...no GM goes into the lotto thinking "well, i'll take this guy because I can do a lot worse"...no, they think about how they can maximize X pick...a guy like Cameron Johnson going 11th overall is fine because he's always had a clear path to success but was never gonna be more than an okay starter or rotational guy at his peak...to draft Johnson the Suns passed on Okeke, Herro, PJ just in the next 4 picks who have a much higher ceiling than what Johnson can bring potentially.

and I again, I'd much rather draft a guy like Deuce McBride in the 2nd than Mitchell in the lotto, not that McBride is better, but it's a value game...McBride who's the same type of player essentially can be had in the 2nd, I don't need to spent a lotto pick on Mitchell when a guy like that can be readily had 30 picks later.

I see your argument in the top 6 but to me 7-12 (which is where he's slotted) is the scariest place to be. It's where people like you still believe there's top tier potential and will ignore production and leadership but in reality it's the bottom of the "in 3yrs just wait and see" grouping. The guys in the top 6 will give you production AND potential. The guys after 12 is where you start thinking smart and for that 1 or 2 nba ready skills.


I'm just saying there's nothing wrong at that stage with questioning whether or not you're overeating potential at this point and wanting to go with an established player. (And we like the same team so I'm thinking of the Knoxs of the world, the Franks of the world). I remember not wanting Donovan Mitchell despite what my eyes told me simply because of his age. That's right, I was an ageist. How many other guys did we say "yeah he looks good now but I'd rather get nothing for 3 yrs and wait on potential". I'm just saying I wish I had a time machine and I wish I looked at a guy who can produce.

There will be young high potential busts. You might select one of those guys instead.

[clyde21]

yes, there will always be busts, but again, if I am GM i am not picking a player thinking he's gonna be a bust lol...it's a risk analysis...ceiling vs. floor vs. bust potential etc...even tho Mitchell has a clearer path to contribute than someone like Jalen Johnson...doesn't mean Mitchell should be picked ahead of him.

ill ask this again...why was a guy like Jevon Carter or Tre Jones picked in the 2nd rounds but a guy like Mitchell should be lotto?

[Onus]

yes, there will always be busts, but again, if I am GM i am not picking a player thinking he's gonna be a bust lol...it's a risk analysis...ceiling vs. floor vs. bust potential etc...even tho Mitchell has a clearer path to contribute than someone like Jalen Johnson...doesn't mean Mitchell should be picked ahead of him.

ill ask this again...why was a guy like Jevon Carter or Tre Jones picked in the 2nd rounds but a guy like Mitchell should be lotto?

Because they aren't shooting 50/40 from the field. And they don't have Mitchell's elite quickness/burst

[clyde21]

yes, there will always be busts, but again, if I am GM i am not picking a player thinking he's gonna be a bust lol...it's a risk analysis...ceiling vs. floor vs. bust potential etc...even tho Mitchell has a clearer path to contribute than someone like Jalen Johnson...doesn't mean Mitchell should be picked ahead of him.

ill ask this again...why was a guy like Jevon Carter or Tre Jones picked in the 2nd rounds but a guy like Mitchell should be lotto?

Because they aren't shooting 50/40 from the field. And they don't have Mitchell's elite quickness/burst

so is a 5 point difference in FG% for you is enough to justify taking someone from the 2nd all the way to lotto?

[Stillwater]

lol @ Mitchell being a Dame level shooter...wtf?

Mitchell can't even hit 65% of his FTs as a senior in college.

His change of direction speed is far superior to anyone else in this class good luck stopping him.
if he had a 90% ft rate I guess then you would ignore the fact he is the better prospect than his back court buddy your pal Butler at this point right? smh
I am surprised you would claim what you do at the notion that somebody dropping shots like nothing like he does is somehow negated by having a meh ft rate

[clyde21]

lol @ Mitchell being a Dame level shooter...wtf?

Mitchell can't even hit 65% of his FTs as a senior in college.

His change of direction speed is far superior to anyone else in this class good luck stopping him.
if he had a 90% ft rate I guess then you would ignore the fact he is the better prospect than his back court buddy your pal Butler at this point right? smh
I am surprised you would claim what you do at the notion that somebody dropping shots like nothing like he does is somehow negated by having a meh ft rate

what makes him a better prospect than Butler?